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[Varche]

Being a suspicious person, I cannot help but think the latest government statement that next major negotiations will be later in the year is to stall for time until after the conference season. That will no doubt bring a new Tory leader with new party line on softer than soft Brexit. If not then you have got to wonder at the lack of progress on what is the biggest change for the country since WW2 (not the conflict per se but the things like rationing, rebuilding and so on). Tik Tok as Barnier says. 

[Bigron]

Slightly off-topic, but we were generally healthier during the post-war rationing days and, black marketing aside, it meant fairer shares for all.

Ron.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I thought that the pause was for the German elections in September. 

Now as a naive country boy with straw coming out of his ears, I thought we were negotiating with the EU not the Germans?   

Makes you wonder what those 5 extremely well paid unelected EU Presidents actually do?      I guess the answer is not much without the German puppet master! 

[Entwood]

Methinks the press, in general, and some of those pontificating continually (and I include those in euroland)  need to actually understand the meaning of the word "negotiation", as all I hear are "demands", "requirements" and "clarification" ... none of which are possible whilst negotiations are taking place, as by definition, the  basis is (should be) continually changing as a common goal is sought.

It is impossible to have any "actual solution" whilst meaningful negotiations occur....  but the left wing don't understand that as they see union/management negotiations as "meet our demands"... hence Corbyns complete misunderstanding of the situation

[Bigron]

Yep Nige, spot on! They seem to be way more interested in confrontation rather then negotiation and your analogy with union "negotiations" really does hit the mark. 

Ron.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Brexit will happen without anything significant happening or changing.

We'll be out of the EU .....(not really though)

[Sir Tigger KC]

What I don't understand is the EU's insistence on the agreement for the UK/EIRE border (as well as citizens rights and the divorce payment) before trade talks, as it's all interconnected. 

How can the border question be settled when we don't know what the customs arrangements between the UK and EU countries are?    I think that the obvious answer is a bespoke customs arrangement as HMG has proposed, but I doubt that the EU will agree. 

Politicians on both sides spouting their opinions Trump style on Twitter aren't helpful either, like Guy Verhofstadt saying that the customs proposals put forward this week by HMG were fantasy.... 

[Viral_Jim]

Politicians on both sides spouting their opinions Trump style on Twitter aren't helpful either, like Guy Verhofstadt saying that the customs proposals put forward this week by HMG were fantasy.... 

Seemed a pretty fair assessment to me... As I understand it, our position is that we want all the benefits of being in the customs union, but to not obey its restrictions regarding signing trade deals? Once again trying to retain all of the benefits, without the responsibilities that come with them... a classic from the David Davis playbook 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Politicians on both sides spouting their opinions Trump style on Twitter aren't helpful either, like Guy Verhofstadt saying that the customs proposals put forward this week by HMG were fantasy.... 

Seemed a pretty fair assessment to me... As I understand it, our position is that we want all the benefits of being in the customs union, but to not obey its restrictions regarding signing trade deals? Once again trying to retain all of the benefits, without the responsibilities that come with them... a classic from the David Davis playbook 

What's wrong with that though?    If you don't try, you don't get!   

A bespoke customs arrangement as you describe above benefits both sides.  The fly in the ointment is that the EU won't want other member countries see the UK getting a good deal as it might encourage more exits. 

[Viral_Jim]

Very true, you don't ask you don't get. But also shouldn't be surprised when you get told where to get off .

The piece about other EU states is the backdrop which is so often lost when talking about these negotiations. Yes, what we trade with the EU and they trade with us and how people move around is all extremely important (regardless of the bickering about who needs who more), but the EU central figures know that the future of the whole EU project depends on us being worse off out than in and that will inform their negotiating position above all else.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Very true, you don't ask you don't get. But also shouldn't be surprised when you get told where to get off .

The piece about other EU states is the backdrop which is so often lost when talking about these negotiations. Yes, what we trade with the EU and they trade with us and how people move around is all extremely important (regardless of the bickering about who needs who more), but the EU team know that the future of the whole EU project depends on us being worse off out than in and that will inform their negotiating position above all else.

And that's a dangerous game they're playing. 

I think that HMG will quietly run the clock down while making all the right noises and moves in the negotiations, but will delay any concrete decisions about any divorce payment apart from our usual contributions up until March 2019.  We will leave the EU without a deal, both sides blaming each others intransigence. 

The UK will unilaterally allow free trade from EU countries, so there will be no tariffs or customs checks on goods coming into the UK and will publicly urge the EU to reciprocate.  Meanwhile pictures of lorries parked up at Dover waiting customs clearance will be beamed around the world as proof of the EU's unreasonableness and inability to conclude any sort of deal within a reasonable time frame. 

[Doctor Gollum]

Very true, you don't ask you don't get. But also shouldn't be surprised when you get told where to get off .

The piece about other EU states is the backdrop which is so often lost when talking about these negotiations. Yes, what we trade with the EU and they trade with us and how people move around is all extremely important (regardless of the bickering about who needs who more), but the EU team know that the future of the whole EU project depends on us being worse off out than in and that will inform their negotiating position above all else.

And that's a dangerous game they're playing. 

I think that HMG will quietly run the clock down while making all the right noises and moves in the negotiations, but will delay any concrete decisions about any divorce payment apart from our usual contributions up until March 2019.  We will leave the EU without a deal, both sides blaming each others intransigence. 

The UK will unilaterally allow free trade from EU countries, so there will be no tariffs or customs checks on goods coming into the UK and will publicly urge the EU to reciprocate.  Meanwhile pictures of lorries parked up at Dover waiting customs clearance will be beamed around the world as proof of the EU's unreasonableness and inability to conclude any sort of deal within a reasonable time frame. 

That works

[Rods2]

The EU has been using the UK left-wing Remoaner press to try to undermine the UK negotiating positions, which is no real surprise.

The real danger for us where 44% of our exports go to the EU, sitting back and falling off a cliff will hurt us much more in the short term and the EU much more in the long term. We need a 2-3 year transition agreement as the changes are so profound.

Where we are in the Customs Union we are the frontline customs processing country for imports that arrive at the UK as their first port of call with us checking the origins of the goods and their compliance with EU standards and applying any tariffs and adding VAT. After this, there is complete freedom of movement of goods within the EU. After March 2019, we are outside of the Customs Union which means the first EU country we are exporting to has to do the full customs processing and likewise we will have to do the same with EU goods. There are many areas where we have given the EU complete control over standards and their administration. This varies from short term import/export of horses for racing, aircraft parts to the movement of nuclear materials.

To implement all our own versions of all of these changes can't be negotiated and implemented in 2 years, it is impossible hence the need for the transition agreement. Trying to muddle through will mean us falling off an unnecessary economic cliff and a severe recession for us and a recession for the remaining EU countries. We really need to avoid this.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Very true, you don't ask you don't get. But also shouldn't be surprised when you get told where to get off .

The piece about other EU states is the backdrop which is so often lost when talking about these negotiations. Yes, what we trade with the EU and they trade with us and how people move around is all extremely important (regardless of the bickering about who needs who more), but the EU central figures know that the future of the whole EU project depends on us being worse off out than in and that will inform their negotiating position above all else.

Which says so much about the project, but apart from that, there is also the fact that they need to agree a deal which leaves us better off than simply leaving and reverting to WTO rules, which is nowhere as bad an option as some would lead us to believe.
In the end, I believe it will finish up like most EU negotiations do. Lots of hot air, right up to the last minute of the last hour, and then a deal will be struck.
If Merkel is still in power, it will be on her say so.

[Rods2]

Very true, you don't ask you don't get. But also shouldn't be surprised when you get told where to get off .

The piece about other EU states is the backdrop which is so often lost when talking about these negotiations. Yes, what we trade with the EU and they trade with us and how people move around is all extremely important (regardless of the bickering about who needs who more), but the EU central figures know that the future of the whole EU project depends on us being worse off out than in and that will inform their negotiating position above all else.

Which says so much about the project, but apart from that, there is also the fact that they need to agree a deal which leaves us better off than simply leaving and reverting to WTO rules, which is nowhere as bad an option as some would lead us to believe.
In the end, I believe it will finish up like most EU negotiations do. Lots of hot air, right up to the last minute of the last hour, and then a deal will be struck.
If Merkel is still in power, it will be on her say so.

When it comes to money, jobs and votes politicians and their rules are always flexible with that applying to the EU much more than most. When push comes to shove it will be Merkel sorting out the goods side to stop the German car industry being hammered and with the French their farmers. Both these UK markets offer good opportunities to the US luxury car makers and ROW food exporters. GM, Ford and Crysler have really upped their game against BMW and Mercedes and it is not difficult for the ROW to beat the inefficient French farmers cost base which EU minimum prices are based on.