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[biggriffin]

Conspiracy theories welcome from rods, and other findings welcome on the Russian plane.

[05omegav6]

Ok... In no particular order :

Putin has fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea... Some over shot and landed in Northern Iraq.

Incidentally Israel isn't much further along that trajectory...

Someone in Northern Sinai, let's say Soviet funded/supplied Islamic fundamentalistic halfwit gets their hands on summat capable of dropping airliners. Let's say said halfwits are given the squark details of a Russian holiday jet.

Putin then says to Egypt...  Let me give you a hand with those ISIS types...

He sends a handful more cruise missiles over from the Caspian Sea.

You might have noticed that their trajectory would be a continuation of the course used to miss Syria. You might also notice that if any missiles fell short, that they would land on Tel Aviv.

If you wanted to completely upset the Middle East, sacrificing 217 of your citizens would be considered a worthwhile expense...

Hypothetically speaking, of course

[STEMO]

Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun. 

[Broomies Mate]

Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun. 

But why though?  Needed a piss perhaps?

[05omegav6]

Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport due to technical issues. Namely people technically shooting at the aircraft. Technically......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun. 

Ooh you cynic

[Sir Tigger KC]

Here's the Daily Mail's take. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3297871/Russian-passenger-plane-220-tourists-board-missing-Egypt-Fears-aircraft-crashed-Sinai-desert.html

[STEMO]

Here's the Daily Mail's take. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3297871/Russian-passenger-plane-220-tourists-board-missing-Egypt-Fears-aircraft-crashed-Sinai-desert.html

That looks more like a fighter than a passenger plane.

[Rods2]

1. Putin FP tactics after all he did get FSB (KGB) to bomb a number of Moscow apartment blocks that killed over 300 people as the pre-text for the 2nd Chechen war where he killed around 250,000 Chechens, including destroying virtually all of their capital Grozny. This comes straight from Hitler's "Consolidate your dictatorship manual" on page 1 of the chapter "night of the long knives!" Putin value of any person's life apart from his is anywhere between nothing and zero.

2. Catastrophic technical failure, where Russia has one of the worst airline safety records in the world.

3. Onboard bomb.

4. AAM or SAM, but at that altitude it would have to be a large one like a BUK.

5. Playing his MH17 get out of jail free card!

Both black boxes have been recovered, so lets wait for the International experts (not the politicised Russian ones) on what probably happened.

[05omegav6]

First proper pic of the wreckage in that sequence is/was the flight deck

No way that was intact when it 'landed'... Also some interesting reference marks on that wing tip too...

[tigers_gonads]

Ok... In no particular order :

Putin has fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea... Some over shot and landed in Northern Iraq.

Incidentally Israel isn't much further along that trajectory...

Someone in Northern Sinai, let's say Soviet funded/supplied Islamic fundamentalistic halfwit gets their hands on summat capable of dropping airliners. Let's say said halfwits are given the squark details of a Russian holiday jet.

Putin then says to Egypt...  Let me give you a hand with those ISIS types...

He sends a handful more cruise missiles over from the Caspian Sea.

You might have noticed that their trajectory would be a continuation of the course used to miss Syria. You might also notice that if any missiles fell short, that they would land on Tel Aviv.

If you wanted to completely upset the Middle East, sacrificing 217 of your citizens would be considered a worthwhile expense...

Hypothetically speaking, of course

The cruise missiles launched by Putin doesn't fly at anything like a altitude off 31,000 feet so that's a non starter.

A standard manpad system has a absolute range of about 6 miles but it would be impossible to use against a target above 10,000 feet due to the seeker head not being able to lock on at that range and the corresponding angles / timing required to get close to something at that altitude.


As for conspiracy theories about the Russians and the big picture, go out and buy Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising 
I read the full 900 od pages in less then 24 hours during a exercise while I was out in sausage land during the late 80's.
Incredibly too close to comfort is one way of putting it.
Iirc when it was published, Clancy got a tap on the shoulder but certain law enforcement agencies in the states and was politely asked about some of the facts and data in the story line. Apparently, he took then down the library and showed then some text books 
To say that they was red faces in department of defence if a understatement   

[05omegav6]

Rods, re point 2... Aircraft was Irish registered and would have been maintained accordingly

[05omegav6]

TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...

[Rods2]

TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...

They won't do that as Russia and Israel get on very closely, partly due to large contingent of Russian Jews that have emigrated to Israel.

[tigers_gonads]

TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...

I know 
Just pishing on the manpad theory that ISIS and other factions use 

As for our red sea pedestrian friends, Putin is not stupid and would never drag them into any conflict.

 

[05omegav6]

TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...

I know 
Just pishing on the manpad theory that ISIS and other factions use 

As for our red sea pedestrian friends, Putin is not stupid and would never drag them into any conflict.

That's open for debate...

That's to say that, whilst there's a technical difference between stupidity and insanity, the net result is broadly similar...