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Messages - Rods2

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1
Lots of stuff out of stock at the moment. Lounge dimmer switch packed up last week where the mechanical push on-off switch wouldn't latch. Lounge the only room in the house which I haven't upgraded to LEDs, where they are candle bulbs in chandeliers, so I thought I would price up a dual LED dimmer switch plus dimmable bulbs. All reasonably priced stuff was out of stock, so gave up & ordered a replacement dimmer module for £3.25 inc p&p which arrived yesterday & did the 10 minute repair job, so now all good. :y

2
General Discussion Area / Re: Interesting take on George Floyd.
« on: 09 June 2020, 20:37:48 »
I don't watch any TV & haven't for over 5 years where I had, had enough of the total shite on it, The only thing I get from the BBC TV Licencing is their threatening letters. Had another one through this morning which has been filed accordingly. ;D If they want to waste money on threatening letters, who am I to stop them. It might partly be due, to where every so often they ask me to confirm in writing or online that I don't watch TV, which is also filed accordingly. ;D

3
General Discussion Area / Re: Interesting take on George Floyd.
« on: 09 June 2020, 19:29:15 »
The London policing of the riots has been less than stellar to put it mildly & the escalation in crime while Cressida Dick has been their chief has been noticeable. I then thought that this looks like a Common Purpose level of incompetence so I did a search & surprise, surprise that an FOI request has confirmed that she did this while at Thames Valley Police & further down in the comments someone has added that they also have it on good authority that she also teaches Common Purpose workshops at the Met Police.

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/deputy_assistant_commissioner_cr

https://www.cpexposed.com/latest-news/senior-policewoman-and-common-purpose-graduate-cressida-dick-promoted-again


4
General Discussion Area / Re: Prof Neil Ferguson
« on: 07 May 2020, 00:20:02 »
I've got some work but not a lot, but I will get something from the Government until July where I've taken a hit, so I'm hoping there will be some signs of normality by then where there is talk of some things opening in the next few weeks. Some further pending work on the horizon which will happen, but many people are currently furloughed, so no decisions are going to be made immediately. Watching the 2nd half 2019 slowdown & this has been a much longer economic cycle than the typical 41 months, I had fortunately been putting some money aside as a buffer where I thought there might be a mild recession in 2020. I'm better prepared than in 2008, so I'm hoping it's just going to be a large but short term hit to the economy with a reasonably fast recovery.

I would never expect Labour to do anything other than make a complete Horlicks & then use spin to cover their tracks, but that is irrelevant as it is not their innings. The party whose innings it is used to have a reputation for reasonable competitance & in one area they have done very, very well with the fast delivery of the Nightingale hospitals by preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best & thankfully they have been virtually unused. Army logistics at its finest in the planning, construction & fitting out in a very short period of time. :y No antibody testing means this is still an open feedback loop to calculate how many people have been infected in the UK & where we are at in terms of herd immunity. Italy have found antibody test infection rates of up to 38% and Germany & the Netherlands some hot spots are ~16% which is good for herd immunity & will make a 2nd peak less likely, I suspect New York is also well on the way to herd immunity. Covid-19 has been much more widespread than confirmed cases show with 50-80% of infections are asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms so they haven't been tested. If you don't know you've got it or think that you have a mild cold, why would you bother with a test?

5
General Discussion Area / Prof Neil Ferguson
« on: 06 May 2020, 21:55:36 »
Wildly wrong with his modelling of Avian Flu, Swine Flu, Foot & Mouth, BSE & Covid-19. His model went from predicting 500,000 UK Covid-19 deaths making the Government panic with the lockdown rather than healthy under 70's carrying on as normal & producing herd immunity & then modified his model with a lockdown & social distancing saying there would only be 20,000 deaths.

Pity he didn't stick to fu*king his mistress, instead of fu*king the UK & totally fu*king our economy with UK 6.3m furloughed plus the 1.25m unemployed, so currently 23% of the UK workforce aren't working, which doesn't include any of the 4m self-employed many of whom have no work. In 1933 unemployment peaked in the USA at 24% in their Great Depression.

This a a review of the Ferguson's code release where if you use the same random seed for a pseudo random number generator & the same assumptions you should get the same results. Even running it as a single core thread, you don't with one such test giving an 80,000 death discrepancy over an 80 day iteration. The confidence in being able to prove any scientific hypothesis is based on independent parties being able to repeat experiments and getting correlating results within the limits of quantifiable experimental errors. His model model results are junk science. >:(

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Initial randomised Covid-19 antibody tests in the USA are finding between x50 and x85 times the number of people with them for every confirmed Covid-19 case which gives a mortality rate between 2 and 3 per 1000 infected people, so slightly more dangerous than a slightly worse than average Influenza at 1 death per 1000 infections. Antibody tests in Germany, Italy & The Netherlands are getting similar results. The UK has no antibody tests as they are not happy with the current test's sensitivity & are holding out for better tests which they hope will become available sometime in June, later or maybe never. Until the UK Government have some UK antibody test results they are give the UK's economy with a £150,000,000,000-£200,000,000,000 per month economic hit, while running the lockdown policy on blind infection & mortality rate assumptions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3_OseL0ArY

I don't expect Governments to get everything right in a crisis with anything over 50% of correct decisions being a good result. Sadly, IMV this Government seems to be falling well short of this number.

6
All 10 crew sadly lost their lives when it crashed in bad weather. :'( :'( :'(

7
General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 18 March 2020, 13:39:48 »
I just had a thought that if we get locked down for months and everything is shut, where are we going to get a haircut?  :o  :D

It's trivial I know, but what to do?  ???   :)

Not bother? and end up looking like a hippy or the wild man of Borneo?  ???  Or go DIY?  :-\

I've got a beard trimmer but it's round the back which will be tricky. :-\  So I was thinking either a crusty style mo-hawk or a mullet!  :)

And those of you who will get your other half to do it, beware of long standing grudges!  :o  ;D
.   


Easy do what I do buy a set of Wahl hair clippers (Argos stock them) and a number 0 once a week keeps me looking like a "Hard bastard"😃

Tend to use a number 4 during the summer & a number 10 in the winter. Always found it straightforward to do. Sir Tig you had better buy one quick before the panic buyers buy 50 each, just in case they need more than 1. ::) ;D

8
General Discussion Area / Re: The Internet
« on: 18 March 2020, 04:51:01 »
Keep calm & carry on.

The travel & travel insurance is dead for up to 12 months.

Had a good meeting today discussing good insurance alternatives & where car insurance is a legal must will start exploring this later today as a new product line.

Economic & health survivors grind out results & I've done both with 2008 being an economic nightmare & 2015 being a health one but I fight to survive hard & will always die hard when needs must. :y :y :y

9
General Discussion Area / Re: The Internet
« on: 17 March 2020, 13:43:00 »
How would we cope with not 'living in interesting times'? ::)

10
General Discussion Area / Re: No large gatherings?
« on: 17 March 2020, 13:13:53 »
As a tax haven IOM GDP ppp in 2016 was $87381.80, although local businesses will suffer, overall a rich country, compared to mainland UK.

11
General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 17 March 2020, 13:02:56 »
Went to Lidl PM Sunday due to unexpected work commitments, got most of what I wanted. Yesterday, on the way back from a hospital appointment picked up the few things that I couldn't get at Lidl in Aldi. Aldi have now, sensibly, implemented a maximum of 4 of any item.

Thereby ensuring that everyone has to go to the supermarket more often...

Correct, which is also spot on for the vulnerable old & infirm that need to semi-self isolate. :o :o :o

12
General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 17 March 2020, 12:29:39 »
Went to Lidl PM Sunday due to unexpected work commitments, got most of what I wanted. Yesterday, on the way back from a hospital appointment picked up the few things that I couldn't get at Lidl in Aldi. Aldi have now, sensibly, implemented a maximum of 4 of any item.

13
General Discussion Area / Re: Bank Accounts
« on: 17 March 2020, 12:21:36 »
Fiat currencies like USD, GBP can be printed in Buzz Lightyear's words 'to infinity & beyond' as long as credibility is strong enough to sustain it. USD as the globe's reserve currency, definitely, GBP almost certainly where they are both very, very strong, stable, safe haven in a storm currencies. :y :y :y

The Euro is in a poor place as only half a currency with unwritten-off 2008 zombie bank debts, pretending to be worth something to stop many Eurozone banks being insolvent & needing bailouts. :-[

Serial failure & convicted criminal Christine Legarde in charge of the ECB caused market jitters last week with her crass statement on widening Italian bond yields where Italy in not the EU's country of the month at the moment. :-X :-X :-X :o :o :o

14
General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 17 March 2020, 11:15:15 »
I knew this was going to happen last week, but could only say post-ante where underwriters have suspended their travel insurance scheme  which is going to cost me a big chunk of my monthly income. :( :( Most travel insurance schemes are now suspended with moneysupermarket panel increasingly looking like the 'Mary Celeste'. Single trip France with zero excess brings up two results, these are not normal times. :o The last two days have seen a massive fall off in sales, so no surprises that BA have announced they are cancelling 75% of flights in April & May. :o :o

It is batten down the hatches time & like 2008 which was very, very, very tough where I had to shut my main business, this one I think short term 3-12 months is going to be much, much worse. :-X

This time I'm a bit better prepared, but it is going to be very, very  tough again. :-[

Deep recessions are never a good time to be self-employed. :-\

15
General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 15 March 2020, 23:36:50 »
Likewise Steve >:(

None of all that pompous, self-righteous panic mongering bullshit does anything to guarantee that I will have a job at the end of this week, let alone the end of the month...

Rationally, I know that this is a short term problem, but it's difficult to stay positive when certain people think that they know better than anyone else. Especially when I know full well that if my Mum, like many others gets it, then it will almost certainly kill her.

If you're so oppsing clever Rods, then perhaps you should better spend your time doing rather than spouting :-X

That is what I've been doing today on a normal day off. Your situation isn't unique & it has hit the travel insurance market big time, as there are lots of areas of uncharted territory, lots of worried passengers, some travelled & some due to travel, where nothing like this has happened before, all creating massive amounts of additional work. ???

An example: Some airlines are giving refunds, but others aren't, only new dates once you can fly again.

In 2015 I had a serious viral infection, which infected my eyes, I lost the use of my right arm through nerve damage, but I eventually gradually got that function back. It took me 10 weeks to beat the virus & long term it has left me partially sighted, with my right eye only just above the level of blindness & I can't read with it & wear an eye patch when working where is distracts my better eye. Everyday for me, life is more difficult & challenging as a result, but I have no choice but to get on with it. I'm well aware from personal experience on how dangerous viruses can be. You can go & get another job but I can't get another optic nerve for my right eye!

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