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[Sir Tigger KC]

Anti government protests are spreading across Iran and have become violent in places with fatalities. 

How do the OOF commentariat see this one panning out?    A Syria type civil war or a bloody, brutal government crackdown? 

[STEMO]

If the ayatollah lets the revolutionary guard loose on the protesters, the latter.

[ronnyd]

The Revolutionary Guard have already promised to crack down hard on dissidents. Just a case of how loyal they remain to the Ayatollahs. The World,s turning to sh*t.

[STEMO]

The Revolutionary Guard have already promised to crack down hard on dissidents. Just a case of how loyal they remain to the Ayatollahs. The World,s turning to sh*t.

The revolutionary guard would have no power without the ayatollah, they are his private army.

[Varche]

I dont thnk the protesters have a leader

so-all

they can hope for is a softening of the governments approach.

Presumably another example of the Internet showing people how things could be. Even with censorship that exists in N. Korea, you have to wonder at the strength of anti government feeling thatmust exist but currently darent be expressed.

Back to Iran. Youhave to wonder what happened to the woman that removed her head gear, waved it around and stamped on it.

[Shackeng]

The Revolutionary Guard have already promised to crack down hard on dissidents. Just a case of how loyal they remain to the Ayatollahs. The World,s turning to sh*t.

The revolutionary guard would have no power without the ayatollah, they are his private army.

The reverse was the case shortly after the revolution, and the guards were in charge. I was operating a Tristar service out of Tehran not long after they took over, and a scuffle broke out on the ground outside the A/C shortly before departure, between one of the guards and a Tehran BA staff member who was traveling out with his family. The situation calmed somewhat and we departed with the BA member and family on board. Shortly after we reached cruise altitude, Iranian air traffic control told us to return to Tehran. After fudging it for a few minutes, having discussed it amongst the flight deck crew, and bearing in mind the highly volatile situation in Iran, and given our considerable distance to the border, and the fact that we probably couldn't outrun a missile, we complied. We were told that the guards had demanded our return. We were allowed to depart again as soon as the BA member was offloaded. I believe he was released a few days later.

[STEMO]

That’s probably still the case now, Chris. What I meant to say was that the revolutionary guard will follow the religious leaders, not the president. If Rouhani decided to take a softer line, he would be told to tow the line, or face being accused of all kinds of heresy.

[redelitev6]

Conflict in the middle east ? surely not 

[Shackeng]

That’s probably still the case now, Chris. What I meant to say was that the revolutionary guard will follow the religious leaders, not the president. If Rouhani decided to take a softer line, he would be told to tow the line, or face being accused of all kinds of heresy.

 

[Rods2]

If all the global arms suppliers keep supplying plenty of arms in return for oil $$$, I'm sure the Shia & Sunni Muslims will sort out their unresolvable differences and total hate for each other one way or another.

[STEMO]

If all the global arms suppliers keep supplying plenty of arms in return for oil $$$, I'm sure the Shia & Sunni Muslims will sort out their unresolvable differences and total hate for each other one way or another.

That would be a very agreeable solution, if only the rest of the world left them to it. But they won’t......

[ronnyd]

The Revolutionary Guard have already promised to crack down hard on dissidents. Just a case of how loyal they remain to the Ayatollahs. The World,s turning to sh*t.

The revolutionary guard would have no power without the ayatollah, they are his private army.

The Iraqi version soon dropped Saddam. Then again, there was massive outside interference 

[TheBoy]

If all the global arms suppliers keep supplying plenty of arms in return for oil $$$, I'm sure the Shia & Sunni Muslims will sort out their unresolvable differences and total hate for each other one way or another.

That would be a very agreeable solution, if only the rest of the world left them to it. But they won’t......

If we send the interfering do-gooders over there (and no ponce around the woman currently held in prison), we can solve multiple issues quickly.

[STEMO]

The Revolutionary Guard have already promised to crack down hard on dissidents. Just a case of how loyal they remain to the Ayatollahs. The World,s turning to sh*t.

The revolutionary guard would have no power without the ayatollah, they are his private army.

The Iraqi version soon dropped Saddam. Then again, there was massive outside interference 

The Iraqi version followed President Saddam, he was not a religious leader.

[ronnyd]

The Revolutionary Guard have already promised to crack down hard on dissidents. Just a case of how loyal they remain to the Ayatollahs. The World,s turning to sh*t.

The revolutionary guard would have no power without the ayatollah, they are his private army.

The Iraqi version soon dropped Saddam. Then again, there was massive outside interference 

The Iraqi version followed President Saddam, he was not a religious leader.

True.

[JDX]

I fear it could escalate further but hope that time will calm things down. I don't want to see any more violence in the region.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

In the 1530's dear old Henry VIII decided enough was enough over the Catholic Church dictating to him that he couldn't divorce his wife, and mounted the Reformation to start a process of the state running it's affairs to suit itself, not the church. Later our monarchs would learn that the people had the ultimate power through a democratic system and not even the monarch, let alone church, could dictate what parliament willed. That would take almost another 400 years.

The American Act of Independance of 1776 has the 1st Amendment which specifies that the churches have no say in the legal and political democratic process, as inserted by Thomas Jefferson in 1791. Church and State is separated, but that phase is not used to describe the situation today.

In 1789 the French started the separation process with a Revolution that killed off the Estates system, whereby the church and monarch had all the power, and spent all the peoples money. Eventually the New Democratic state and the people had the power they sought.

Spain was once highly influenced by the Catholic Church, even declaring the English Elizabeth I a bastard and a heratic, let alone killing Mary Queen of Scots, persuading King Phillip II to launch his infamous Amadda of 1588. In 1905 Spain offially got around to the separation of Church from state.

So, as I observe it, the people of Iran is starting to question the authority of the church/ clerics and the political masters, such as the President. They are fed up with limited work, lack of food, and no say in their future.  The very ingediants that ignited the French Revolution.  The only problem at the moment is that the protesters do not seem to have specific leaders, as the French Revolution had the middle classes, the professionals, using their expertise to organise what happened, at least until they lost control of the Revolution from 1790 onwards, with a million deaths by 1802, then another million lost under Napaleon.

What Iran is just starting is a very long process that, for some started in 1979, will be costly and take many decades to reach some form of conclusion. But that is the pattern that European countries have witnessed, and already many Middle Eastern countries have suffered painfully from.

The World has got a long way to go before we see any sign of peace on Earth.

[BazaJT]

Someone once said "While ever there are two people alive on Earth there will be a war"Sadly Lizzie I seriously doubt there will ever be peace on Earth people just like killing each other too much to stop.

[STEMO]

Someone once said "While ever there are two people alive on Earth there will be a war"Sadly Lizzie I seriously doubt there will ever be peace on Earth people just like killing each other too much to stop.

Keeps the population down a bit.

[BazaJT]

Yes a "good"war will certainly do that!Short of an event or more, like the 'flu that swept the world at the end of WW1 it's about the only thing that will.

[aaronjb]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

Don't hold your breath - I can't imagine that happening in your lifetime, my lifetime or even Tunnie's children's lifetimes..

[Lizzie Zoom]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

Don't hold your breath - I can't imagine that happening in your lifetime, my lifetime or even Tunnie's children's lifetimes..

As I stated in my post, we took 400 years to do it, and Spain a similar time. France took from 1789 to 1905 to finally separate state from Church.

No, it will not happen in Iran for many lifetimes to come as dropping the Church influence and forming any resemblance of a democracy takes usually hundreds of years, especially when religion is so ingrained in their society. Russia has taken 100 years since the Revolution just to get to a system that is pretending to be a democracy, although it ditch the Church connection long ago. But it also will take at least another 200 years to get politically to where we are now.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Its just as likely (possibly more so) that Islam will take over the Western world, rather than the middle East adopt western democracy, in the long term.

[TheBoy]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

Don't hold your breath - I can't imagine that happening in your lifetime, my lifetime or even Tunnie's children's lifetimes..

As I stated in my post, we took 400 years to do it, and Spain a similar time. France took from 1789 to 1905 to finally separate state from Church.

No, it will not happen in Iran for many lifetimes to come as dropping the Church influence and forming any resemblance of a democracy takes usually hundreds of years, especially when religion is so ingrained in their society. Russia has taken 100 years since the Revolution just to get to a system that is pretending to be a democracy, although it ditch the Church connection long ago. But it also will take at least another 200 years to get politically to where we are now.

And has it panned out well? Not really.

Religion was formed to control the populous.

Dictatorship works every bit as well.


Pure democracy, nah, that leads to unrest, and will never work.

[JDX]

Where is it written that life is fair & we are all equal? We are not & if you are born with a silver spoon in your mouth or on the wrong side of the tracks - you have to deal with it...

[Lizzie Zoom]

Where is it written that life is fair & we are all equal? We are not & if you are born with a silver spoon in your mouth or on the wrong side of the tracks - you have to deal with it...

That is part of the challenge we all face in our lives. Good and bad, we meet it all.  Always have, always will be until we die.  How we are judged after that is what we have made of ourselves and what we do for those around us.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

Don't hold your breath - I can't imagine that happening in your lifetime, my lifetime or even Tunnie's children's lifetimes..

As I stated in my post, we took 400 years to do it, and Spain a similar time. France took from 1789 to 1905 to finally separate state from Church.

No, it will not happen in Iran for many lifetimes to come as dropping the Church influence and forming any resemblance of a democracy takes usually hundreds of years, especially when religion is so ingrained in their society. Russia has taken 100 years since the Revolution just to get to a system that is pretending to be a democracy, although it ditch the Church connection long ago. But it also will take at least another 200 years to get politically to where we are now.

And has it panned out well? Not really.

Religion was formed to control the populous.

Dictatorship works every bit as well.


Pure democracy, nah, that leads to unrest, and will never work.

Ah, that is the interesting point.

National Socialism does work well to start with, and becomes an alternative "Religion".  It controls, like Religion before, those that are the weaker members of society, and caters for those who are far more independent in their thought and actions. It creates a National focus on objectives to be achieved, and strives for those regardless of individual cost, or loss, and does not allow for any weaknesses or failures.

The philosopher Nietzsche considered how there were possible  "Supermen", or better still in German, " Übermensch", to be created within society who could leave religion behind, along with the usual herd mentality, and be superior humans able to protect and advance the rest of the population towards a National objective.  The trouble is the likes of Hitler perverted that philosophy by believing the  Übermensch should extract the weak and non-conformists / non-faithful to the National cause, or anyone deemed to be a threat to it, and destroy them.  With communism the theory is that everyone is equal; with National Socialism it is that everyone works equally, and surrenders their individuality to the State.  With both systems the obvious flaw, amongst many, has been that certain people have raised themselves to become the Übermensch as leaders that effectively dictate what the many should do, when they should do it, with whom, etc, etc, and decide life and death.  Stalin and Hitler proves the point.

The problem is that evil people, including those that were in the Churches of the World, will always take advantage of the political situation and make the society, the peasants or proletariat, in respect of the French at the time of the Revolution, work for them. Dictating, and controlling all  that they do.  In Iran the people are now in the very early stages of rectification.

In terms of Democracy, I would sooner live with Churchill's famous quote : “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” and strive for a superior version of it.

[TheBoy]

In terms of Democracy, I would sooner live with Churchill's famous quote : “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” and strive for a superior version of it.

My own belief is that the 1980s Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister series were a little bit too close to reality....


...take the last US head honcho. A good speaker, I'll grant him that. But what did he achieve from his promises in 8 years? Whats now called Obamacare, and how many compromises did he have to make to get that democratically in place (whether you thought it a good or retarded idea is irrelevent).  And how quickly will it get undone by a much despised slightly dictorial President.

I actually like President Trump, and think he'd make a reasonable dictator. But he won't last beyond the first term in a democracy (assuming they aren't stupid enough to put Clinton up against him )

[Lizzie Zoom]

In terms of Democracy, I would sooner live with Churchill's famous quote : “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” and strive for a superior version of it.

My own belief is that the 1980s Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister series were a little bit too close to reality....


...take the last US head honcho. A good speaker, I'll grant him that. But what did he achieve from his promises in 8 years? Whats now called Obamacare, and how many compromises did he have to make to get that democratically in place (whether you thought it a good or retarded idea is irrelevent).  And how quickly will it get undone by a much despised slightly dictorial President.

I actually like President Trump, and think he'd make a reasonable dictator. But he won't last beyond the first term in a democracy (assuming they aren't stupid enough to put Clinton up against him )

Ah, that is the thing.  I am not any kind of specialist in American politics but one thing I do know is that thanks to the American Constitution it is very hard, if not impossible, to amend American law. Believe it or not, since 1789 to 2017 there have been 11,699 measures have been proposed to amend the Constitution; of these just 33 have gone from Congress to be ratified, but only 27 have been.

That is one reason why any change to Amendment 2 on Gun Law will not be coming along soon.  Unlike the British Parliament, who can reasonably quickly and democratically change our laws, the USA is renowned for "staying still" when it comes to legal change to Federal Law.  One crucial hurdle to this has proved to be that at least thirteen states are required to vote unanimously for ratification, but this so often does not transpire.

Give me British Democracy anytime, and stay away from ever having a President!!

[Kevin Wood]

In terms of Democracy, I would sooner live with Churchill's famous quote : “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” and strive for a superior version of it.

My own belief is that the 1980s Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister series were a little bit too close to reality....

At the moment, I think we can only dream of a reality like that.

[Sir Tigger KC]

In terms of Democracy, I would sooner live with Churchill's famous quote : “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” and strive for a superior version of it.

My own belief is that the 1980s Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister series were a little bit too close to reality....

At the moment, I think we can only dream of a reality like that.

I think a Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister style comedy set in Brussels and done in the style of Allo Allo would prove to be very popular!    If a little unPC!   

It could be called Ya Commissar!  

[Nick W]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

Islam is specifically designed to BE the state as well as the church, so that isn't going to happen without some fundamental changes. And Islam's appeal to much of the world is its utter certainty and resistance to change. It ain't going to happen anytime soon.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Iran is going through a process that will eventually separate the church from the state, and ensure the people have full democracy.

Islam is specifically designed to BE the state as well as the church, so that isn't going to happen without some fundamental changes. And Islam's appeal to much of the world is its utter certainty and resistance to change. It ain't going to happen anytime soon.

[/highlight]

Perhaps I didn't emphasise enough, so I'll repeat that it may take 400 years but eventually the power of the church, in this case Islam, will decline and be replaced by a democratic system. It will not be "anytime soon" that is for sure.  But if you went back 400 years in England you would not have even contemplated the thought that both the church and monarchy's power would be disappated by the common folk, the peasants. Same in France, until 1789 no-one believed there could be a realistic alternative to the power of the main Estates, the Catholic Church and the monarchy, along with the aristocracy. But in both cases it eventually happened.

Islam is not the be all and end all. As the people look for a system whereby they can be valued as individuals, with full human rights, justice, wealth, and democracy - having a true say in there lives and not being led by clerics - then the power / attraction of Islam will fade as their abuse of power becomes all too obvious as it has in Iran.

Islam and Christainity will still exist as faiths and religions, but not as political powers. Secular societies will develop around the Islamic world, as it has already in Turkey, although there it has a long way to go before it is democratic. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Islam and Christainity will still exist as faiths and religions, but not as political powers. Secular societies will develop around the Islamic world, as it has already in Turkey, although there it has a long way to go before it is democratic. 

Secularism is on the slide in Turkey and other secular muslim states as well. 

On a visit to Malaysia a couple of years ago I was shocked at how 'dry' the country had become since my last visit 20 odd years before.    It was hard to find a beer!! 

[TheBoy]

Ah, that is the thing.  I am not any kind of specialist in American politics but one thing I do know is that thanks to the American Constitution it is very hard, if not impossible, to amend American law. Believe it or not, since 1789 to 2017 there have been 11,699 measures have been proposed to amend the Constitution; of these just 33 have gone from Congress to be ratified, but only 27 have been.

Thats called by many as democracy

[Lizzie Zoom]

Ah, that is the thing.  I am not any kind of specialist in American politics but one thing I do know is that thanks to the American Constitution it is very hard, if not impossible, to amend American law. Believe it or not, since 1789 to 2017 there have been 11,699 measures have been proposed to amend the Constitution; of these just 33 have gone from Congress to be ratified, but only 27 have been.

Thats called by many as democracy

More like constrained democracy TB

[Kevin Wood]

Ah, that is the thing.  I am not any kind of specialist in American politics but one thing I do know is that thanks to the American Constitution it is very hard, if not impossible, to amend American law. Believe it or not, since 1789 to 2017 there have been 11,699 measures have been proposed to amend the Constitution; of these just 33 have gone from Congress to be ratified, but only 27 have been.

Thats called by many as democracy

More like constrained democracy TB

It's worth putting a few sensible absolute constraints on any system of government in case you elect a complete retar... Oh, Hang on!

[Lizzie Zoom]

Ah, that is the thing.  I am not any kind of specialist in American politics but one thing I do know is that thanks to the American Constitution it is very hard, if not impossible, to amend American law. Believe it or not, since 1789 to 2017 there have been 11,699 measures have been proposed to amend the Constitution; of these just 33 have gone from Congress to be ratified, but only 27 have been.

Thats called by many as democracy

More like constrained democracy TB

It's worth putting a few sensible absolute constraints on any system of government in case you elect a complete retar... Oh, Hang on!

Good point

[Fraggles Rock]

You're not comparing apples with apples... Those seventeen amendments were to the foundations of government, not laws...

Here the counties don't have their own laws... Sure there's the odd archaic parish or district bylaw, but not keeping sheep on a Sunday is not the same as the right to bear arms.

[Lizzie Zoom]

You're not comparing apples with apples... Those seventeen amendments were to the foundations of government, not laws...

Here the counties don't have their own laws... Sure there's the odd archaic parish or district bylaw, but not keeping sheep on a Sunday is not the same as the right to bear arms.

No, just showing the two systems and how difficult it is for the US Congress to change Law.

It is 27 amendments to date that have been ratified and allow for changes to take place to US law.  As I emphasised, Gun Law changes cannot happen due to the 2nd Amendment, and this ius a good example of the problem.  This shows how the US Constitution is so different to the UK's unwritten / uncodified constitution, made up of thousands of documents of changes to our laws through what has been experienced in practice, such as in the beginning the final Magna Carta of 1225, that has allowed for a far greater degree of flexibility in changing law quickly if necessary via Acts of Parliament and court orders for example.

Iran is a long, long way from any thought of this process, let alone actually achieving it. As already said by me, 400 years is a possible time scale when you look at history.