Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Viral_Jim]

The number of deaths reported by BBC on 26/04/20 was 21,092 on the following day it was reported at 25,402, something amiss there 20% increase, when the average from the week before was 4% to 2% by end of the week. Yes I have been tracking the figures on a daily basis since the outbreak and those in my local area, and have my own fancy graphs - LOL!!!

27/04 was a Monday. I understand that A number of hospitals don't register all deaths over the weekend, or don't report c-19 numbers etc. Whatever, if you look back there are consistent peaks and troughs around weekends.

A better graph to look at would be a 7-day rolling average graph such as the one below as it reduces the impact of these reporting delays on the final data set.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?time=2020-03-26..

Edit: I wasn't aware of the care home adjustment, 

[Doctor Gollum]

The figures spike on a Tuesday owing to weekend deaths not being fully recorded until later on Monday. Also there's a lag from non hospital deaths. This is significantly improved over the beginning of April, but nevertheless could be as much as a week due to the way these are processed... If you die in hospital, you're certified there and then, and worst case,  the paperwork will be filed 9-4 the next day. Die elsewhere, and you might not be found until a day or so after the event (being in care doesn't mean in a facility, having a carer visit every other day at your own home probably counts), so you aren't automatically certified... Doctor and police potentially involved with a less direct paperwork process, slowed by the fact that the focus is on hospital deaths. Which is understandable as most who have died from Batflu have been ill enough to require hospitalisation in the first place.

Staff who have caught it and succumbed in the course of their duties should also be treated as work related deaths which would also involve the HSE, so further bureaucracy possible.

Also worth noting that the care homes are largely privately run, and could be argued that they are responsible for managing their own supplies of PPE etc and that simply boils down to poor management/leadership from head offices rather than being the government's responsibility/fault.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Also worth noting that the care homes are largely privately run, and could be argued that they are responsible for managing their own supplies of PPE etc and that simply boils down to poor management/leadership from head offices rather than being the government's responsibility/fault.

I think this is a good point especially when you consider the fees that care homes charge!    Fair enough asking the government for assistance in a national crisis, but is it the governments fault? 

The same goes for the NHS, as I've been wondering what the highly paid senior management were doing back in February?    Not preparing their hospitals for a possible epidemic that was already spreading fast in other countries that's for sure!     

[MikeDundee]

forget about fake figures, what should be happening is identifying why people are still contracting the virus given we are all in lockdown, are new cases from people working or people in lockdown. The figures are coming down certainly in terms of number of deaths and beginning to flatten out, but the number of cases is not and they are not flattening out yet, despite the fancy graphs you see on BBC news and elsewhere.

The number of deaths reported by BBC on 26/04/20 was 21,092 on the following day it was reported at 25,402, something amiss there 20% increase, when the average from the week before was 4% to 2% by end of the week. Yes I have been tracking the figures on a daily basis since the outbreak and those in my local area, and have my own fancy graphs - LOL!!!

I think Mike you will find that was down to an adjustment being made for care home and community Covid deaths, in addition to hospital fatalities.  The figures are therefore, hopefully, NEARER the truthful situation.

As for deaths despite the lockdown;  that, in my mind, is more down to people still at 'essential' work and, more importantly, the stupid amoungst us who think the non-household mixing rules along with social distancing do not apply to them.  I still see it everyday!

Yes social distancing, had that this morning in Tesco metro, bloke less than a metre from me, told him to stand back on the 2 metre mark, he said you serious, i said of course not joking, ****** idiot!!!

[STEMO]

Just got back from Asda. 45 mins in a very well behaved, social distancing queue. Once we got inside, however...............

[Rangie]

Neither wifey or I have been in a supermarket since the 15th March everything on home delivery now only go out to walk the dog , drive once a week to deliver bread & meat to our old elderly neighbour at our old house , when out walking everyone we have met adheres to the social distancing , would not even walk into the town centre as too many idiots there ( have seen pictures online) Miss seeing the Grandsons but speak online , a bit of inconvenience maybe but it's better then what happened to the other 27,000 (approximately) 😀

[STEMO]

I believe the people of the arsebook generation have christened them 'covidiots'.

[dave the builder]

All the more reason to make masks mandatory in public places such as shops ,public transport etc
it won't protect the wearer much ,but could protect others
downside being it's hard to identify criminals and law breakers 

as for track and trace apps , how many people don't own smart phones 
and the UK still has massive gaps in signal coverage(to send the pings in packets to the servers) ,
going everywhere with bluetooth enabled is a security risk .

looking at the number of cars about and people everywhere , I think many have decided lockdown has ended 

[Sir Tigger KC]

looking at the number of cars about and people everywhere , I think many have decided lockdown has ended 

Cast your mind back a month or so ago when everyone was clamouring to be locked down.  The government kept saying it was all about getting the timing right and that people would get 'lock down fatigue' and start going out precisely when we needed people to stay in. 

No no no they said, We know best they said, and look what's happening now?  Non essential businesses like B&Q reopening and generally people starting to go out and about again, yet the lockdown is supposed to last until next week at least! 

[dave the builder]

I expect roads round shops and retail parks to be busy
but i've been using the A38 and M42 to drop off shopping to relatives
previously lots of lorries and vans , hardly any cars
that has changed ,now lots of cars too

maybe it's added too by end of the month/people got paid situation 

[STEMO]

And no police.

[Rangie]

And no police.

. 

That's about right, so you make your own choice go out & about and behave like a complete idiot or follow advice and perhaps live  so simple but plenty of dumb arseholes just don't get it.

[dave the builder]

And no police.

Police where massively overstretched long before Chinese Virus

A £30 fine IF they prove you are breaching lockdown terms is hardly a deterrent 

I saw a news item saying 200,000 people grassed on others breaching lock down 

won't be long before the government start letting groups out officially ,experimenting with lives 

maybe the phone APP should include an ebay style feedback system ,which lepers to avoid 

[Lizzie Zoom]

Just been watching a news item on Spain's slight release from lockdown.


Everyone has gone mad and can be seen en mass with no regard to social distancing  A Spanish guy said it was crazy, and he was seeing people from where he lived who he had never seen before freely mixing.

Another Spaniard said in just a few weeks time, after no doubt a big spread of the virus, they would again be in complete lockdown.

All this is exactly what our Government fears by releasing the lockdown brakes too quickly

[STEMO]

Governments can only do so much. It's down to individuals to think for themselves with regards to personal safety. I see this morning, in the news, the two metre rule was being scaled back. Some people (don't know if they're medicos or politicians) have said one metre could be sufficient, and they'd been a bit cautious with two metres. Bollicks, I'll go out and mix when I feel safe, not when some rich politician who's business is suffering decides it's safe.
If they try to rush schools back, my missus is adamant that she will not ask her staff to return to work until she's absolutely sure it's safe. People may think I'm odd (quiet, Opti) going shopping in my gloves in November, but I don't care. When the death rate is zero, I'll consider taking them off.