Topic: Europe In or Out?? (Read 6870 times)

gbh · « **on:** 17 January 2016, 12:15:23 »

As this is a subject which seems to be in the news all the time it might interesting to hears members thoughts!! For me it's an easy one and that is OUT!! I think our politicians will be a lot more accountable to us instead of hiding behind Brussels and maybe we can get something which is good for us.We have in the past like NHS and our ARMY but slowly our own powers are being watered down as an electrician I noticed this we changed all our cable colours they didn't change theirs and i'm sure the next step must be the Euro and changing the side of the road we drive,for sure they aren't going to change and out politicians don't seem to stand up for us!!!

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #1 on:** 17 January 2016, 12:26:46 »

Out. I cannot think of a single genuine reason to stay in (and have never heard one), but I can think of many reasons to leave.

zirk · « **Reply #2 on:** 17 January 2016, 12:34:41 »

Without getting into a heated debate, Personally I think we are too far down the road to pull out now, and more to the point, we are far from prepared to stand on our own two feet, probably end going broke if we pulled out tomorrow.

There are benefits of being in the EU believe or not, mostly financial, we do get fair share of funds from it, which as the public we don't always hear about.

On a serious note, if we did vote out, it would need to planned very carefully, otherwise it could easily back fire.

STEMO · « **Reply #3 on:** 17 January 2016, 12:41:43 »

I'd vote to stay in if we could get guarantees that they would stop interfering with our benefits system, stop interfering with our immigration policies, stop interfering with our tax system, stop interfering with our banking system, stop trying to tell us what shape bananas to eat, stop trying to get me to put winter tyres on, stop wasting money on the gravy train that is Brussels........and a few more things that I can't recall right now.

Yep......that would sway me.

Oh yeah, and stop being so foreign.....nearly forgot that one.

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #4 on:** 17 January 2016, 12:56:08 »

That would defeat the point. Its a political union of member states, who must abide by the rules and laws made by the (completely unelected) commissioners.
Zirk - I would like to hear about these financial benefits. Seems to me its like being grateful that when someone takes £50 from you, they give you the benefit of giving you back a tenner.
Puzzled why you might think we cant stand on our own two feet after doing so from the dawn of time until about 40 years ago. Our economy is soon going to take over from Germany as the biggest in Europe. We are the worlds biggest importer of goods etc from the EU - hence giving us a very strong hand to do deals with them in future, and our economy, industry, culture etc. etc. is still widely regarded all over the world.
I think all we might need is to regain a little bit of confidence in ourselves as a nation, without reverting to all the "Brittania rules the waves" jingoistic type of mentality.

gbh · « **Reply #5 on:** 17 January 2016, 13:16:33 »

As the child of a mother whose father died at Arnhem i'm quite aware of what this country and the commonwealth gave to this world and in particular Europe.I believe we have some historical supporting countries in Europe and we certainly have the opposite.As long as we keeping paying a lot into club to help pay for countries who then would appear ungrateful then what's the point really.Are the people of this country better off after 40 years? Pensioners? Food banks? If we still are Great or United its time to test it and test our politicians!!

tigers_gonads · « **Reply #6 on:** 17 January 2016, 13:18:34 »

I'm English
A part of Great Britain

You can not have a sovereign nation if it doesn't control .............

1/. Its own laws.
2/. Its own currency.
3/. Its own borders.
4/. Its own armed forces.
5/. God forbid we ever have to use it, Our own Nuclear Deterrent.
6/. Its own foreign policy.

Europe started off as a common trade agreement between the nations of Europe which was great.
We all played by the same rules (unless your French

) and everybody benefited.

Now the European Union has grown into effectively a new state which if you scratch the right back and are willing to bend over and take it up the jacksie from those good old unelected gravy train warriors in Brussels , your allowed to join.

Personally, i'd tell Brussels to stick our membership where the sun doesn't shine

The only reason Brussels want anything to do with us is because of the financial sector based in London.
Other then that, we are all just a bunch of little Englanders too them and the majority couldn't give a toss about us.

Can we survive outside the "gravy train" ?

YES imho

But it will be one hell of a hard slog for a few years.
As Migv6 says, it may give the poodles of this county regardless of colour or creed who have never known anything but compliance to Brussels a proper sense of identity and to be a part of a nation once more

At the end of the day, if your born in England, your English and should be proud of that fact.

Hip Hip, Rule Britannia, God Save The Queen and all that

Right, time to piss next door off and set me speakers bouncing to Jerusalem

Terbs · « **Reply #7 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:33:59 »

Out, out, and more out

Sir Tigger KC · « **Reply #8 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:34:19 »

I think that Britain needs to go one of two ways.

1) Become a fully committed member of the EU project , embracing all that the EU stands for, ever closer union, joining the Euro and Schengen and basically stop acting like a spoiled brat bitching about this that and the other all the time. As I'm sure that is how we are seen from the EU perspective.

2) Leave, but maintain friendly relations and cooperation with other European countries and the EU itself. Leaving the EU dosn't mean turning our backs on other European nations.

Personally I will vote to leave the EU as for me it's not about trade, industry and investment, but how we are governed and I want this United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland of ours to be an independent, democratic and self determining nation.

Sadly I think that the Establishment will ramp up 'Project Fear' and we'll be bombarded with propaganda telling us that we will be going to 'hell in a hand cart' if we leave the EU. The people will fall for this and we will remain in the EU, but if anything our position will be weaker as anytime we complain about a new directive or something the answer will be that the people of the UK voted to be part of the EU, so shut it!

As a footnote, I love Europe!

I've worked, travelled and had great holidays all over the continent. I love the differences between us in terms of people, languages, climate, architecture, scenery, food and even German birds with hairy armpits!

It's truly a great part of our planet to live!

It's the EU that I want to Britain leave, not Europe as whatever anyone says we are a European country!

So we should be careful with our terminology as the debate heats up.

Terbs · « **Reply #9 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:41:05 »

Sir Tig.....that sums up my thoughts, exactly.
Brilliant rendition

Andy B · « **Reply #10 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:45:04 »

Quote from: Sir Tigger on 17 January 2016, 14:34:19

...
and even German birds with hairy armpits! ....

Yuk!

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #11 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:47:07 »

mine too.

The master of the dark arts - Mandelson, is co-ordinating the IN campaign, behind the scenes, so expect dirty tricks, and a sh1tstorm of lies in order to scare people into voting to remain.
If we stay in, expect far faster integration towards U.S.E once the dust has settled, as there will be no reason to hold back once the votes have been counted.
Tony Blair once again called for an EU army this week. This would be one of the major gangplanks to the U.S.E.
Why does he want this ? I can only imagine he goes to sleep at night dreaming of the U.S.E. with himself as president, in about 10 years time.
The really frightening thing is that it could happen very easily.

Varche · « **Reply #12 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:53:26 »

The OP question should have read EU in or out? Geographically Britain is in Europe.

My answer and vote will be for out despite potential ramifications as an expat. For example I expect an out vote to lead to frozen state pensions for expats living elsewhere in Europe in line with those living in former Commonwealth countries. I will cross that bridge if I actually reach retirement age.

Like any complex subject hardly anyone and certainly very few politicians actually understand the subject. You only had to look at the diatribes over should we bomb Syria or not.

So we have a bunch of folk who like being British and determining our own future .We have a bunch of people who like the idea of the security of being in a big club. Then we have the undecided, even at this late stage, who will be swung by sound bites and the media which is largely pro EU.

Other none EU countries manage to trade and live with the EU, so could Britain. The EU buys less off us than we buy from them. So a leave vote will immediately result in the Germans refusing to sell us BMWs, Bosch washing machines and so on (not).

The EU will only succeed if it has monetary and economic union run from a central location. They haven't impressed me so far with Greece which is a tragedy that pales into insignificance compared to the reckless way migrants have been courted.

tigers_gonads · « **Reply #13 on:** 17 January 2016, 14:55:51 »

I can handle the hairy armpits

Its the overly hairy clams that I can't be doing with

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #14 on:** 17 January 2016, 15:08:38 »

Agreed. The EU can only possibly succeed if it becomes a complete political union like the U.S.A.
It would need one treasury deciding monetary policies, taxation levels, pensions, benefits, etc. etc.
One defence dept, with an EU army / Navy / Airforce, all sorts of stuff really, and of course a single currency.
That is why it is heading inevitably in that direction, and must succeed or collapse trying.
People keep banging on about us being better off because we are in the slow lane on all these matters, but the slow lane leads to the same destination, it just takes a bit longer to get there.
It has just been announced that over 1000 more jobs are to be lost at Tata steel.
The global price of steel has collapsed, but it will recover. When it does we wont have a steel industry left. Our Govt. in the past could have considered supporting the industry in the short term until it recovers, but it cant consider doing that now as EU law forbids it.
I just wish the unions and the Labour party would admit these facts. Kinnocks Jr. is currently on SKY news blaming the Tories.
He knows better than most that any colour of British Govt. has its hands tied behind its back. But then again his parents (both historically extremely Eurosceptic, as all true socialists are) sold their souls to Brussels and made £ millions from the gravy train.
I heard Ken Clarke on TV this morning banging on about how great the EU is and how we mustn't leave. He used exactly the same arguments he used when he argued in favour of us joining the Euro 20 years ago. He once said "I look forward to the day when Westminster is no more than a council chamber in Europe". To my mind thats nothing short of treason.

SIR Philbutt · « **Reply #15 on:** 17 January 2016, 17:25:29 »

I would also note that it is EU in or out not Europe and concur with SIR tig's post

It is known that this is a complex question for most. When it comes down to it people will vote based on the main issues of the time. As can be seen from the latest change in the poll's as a reaction to the Paris massacre, New Year sex attacks, increase in the Syrian exodus and the Calais migrant camp. In other words,and IMO, it will be the media stories in the final build up to the vote that will affect the swing

On This Week on Thursday, for whatever you might think of him, Mr Portillo made a good point on how to decide which way to vote. I could type out my version of it but here it is starts at 02.30 http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06wkj4q/this-week-14012016

Basically we will not get a good 'deal' so should vote OUT , as the Irish did, then the EU will not accept this, offer us a deal that will get a YES, then there would be another vote, as the Irish did. The politicians know this and are trying to counter by saying this is the 'only' vote, Yeah right

I have always been an "OUTy" and still waiting to be convinced otherwise, and yes I heard all the regular arguments to stay and they don't wash

Entwood · « **Reply #16 on:** 17 January 2016, 17:41:06 »

IMHO a somewhat pointless question at this point in time .. and I REALLY wish the press/media etc would realise this ..... I explain ...

The in/out referendum/question will be based not on where we are now or where we were in the past, but on any reforms that the UK manages (or not) to negotiate.

It is not known what those reforms are, although it is known what has been "asked" for, so making a decision now is a bit like deciding exactly what you are going to eat in a restaurant before they even publish their menu .....

Why not wait until the "changes" are announced and THEN have a sensible debate ?? nah .. media like to stir things up as they now try and MAKE the news rather than REPORT it like they used to... and this thread seeks to do the same ... IMHO

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #17 on:** 17 January 2016, 17:52:55 »

We know that Cameron has asked for almost nothing. I think its safe to assume he will be lucky to get even that, and certainly wont be offered even more than he has asked for.
We know (and the powers that be in the EU know) that he will argue in favour of staying in no matter what he "negotiates".
We know (or should, unless we live on the moon) that the EU is a political union of member states which requires ever closer union - without the the consent of the voters in member states being given.
So, what is there to wait for ? $:-\$

Field Marshal Dr. Opti · « **Reply #18 on:** 17 January 2016, 17:57:02 »

Portillo had a view on us leaving on 'This Week', last week.

If we want to stay we should all vote to leave.

According to Mr P this is the only way there would be any 'meaningful' changes to how Europe is run.

Portillo believes that a 'no vote' would not be the end of the matter. regardless of what Cameron says.

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #19 on:** 17 January 2016, 18:01:09 »

He may be right. Each time a member state has had the audacity to have a vote and get the "wrong" result, they made them vote again to get the "right" result.
Trouble is, the EU is way beyond reform. Reforming from the inside is one of the few arguments the "remainers" have left to argue with. It doesn't hold water imo.
I believe that everyone who intends to vote has a duty to do some research on the EU, from its inception to the present day.
I honestly fail to see how someone who has done that would want to stay, unless they have a serious vested interest, such as a politician, or chief of a huge conglomerate.
There really is nothing to recommend it apart from the scare stories about how we cant survive without it.-

Varche · « **Reply #20 on:** 17 January 2016, 18:04:21 »

That is a valid point Entwood. However if our PM manages to negotiate something then there are three major problems.

1. Will the negotiated agreement actually come into law? That process could take years. My belief is it wouldn't.

2. My concern is that any negotiation (and the current sacrificial crumbs being talked about) will not, quite rightly, satisfy the Naysayers. Put bluntly they will not actually address the main problem which is do we want to be ruled, governed, taxed and have the euro from Brussels or Strasburg.(depending on the month)? Some headline grabbing rubbish about borders, benefits will just be inconsequential.

3. Scotland, in the grips of the SNP, have said in no uncertain terms that an out vote would mean yet another once in a lifetime vote on independence, as the SNP are committed to staying in Europe. When crude oil is 20 dollars a barrel I do wonder just how they would balance the books but principles are principles and by then the rich countries in the EU would send tax revenue to them and support them.

Long term members of the forum may have spotted a complete volta-face (about turn) from me. Ten years ago I was actually quite keen on sharing the cost of armed forces over EU members and having an EU armed forces.

I also disagree with your suggestion of waiting till nearer the time. The sheeple need to be thinking about the issues now not two minutes before a snap vote. As I said earlier there are three camps. The ones that are absolutely crucial are the "haven't a clue/never thought about it till now/where is this EU country anyway" types who rightly will have a vote. This vote is actually the most important thing we will ever vote on.

Entwood · « **Reply #21 on:** 17 January 2016, 18:16:32 »

Quote from: Varche on 17 January 2016, 18:04:21

That is a valid point Entwood. However if our PM manages to negotiate something then there are three major problems.

1. Will the negotiated agreement actually come into law? That process could take years. My belief is it wouldn't.

2. My concern is that any negotiation (and the current sacrificial crumbs being talked about) will not, quite rightly, satisfy the Naysayers. Put bluntly they will not actually address the main problem which is do we want to be ruled, governed, taxed and have the euro from Brussels or Strasburg.(depending on the month)? Some headline grabbing rubbish about borders, benefits will just be inconsequential.

3. Scotland, in the grips of the SNP, have said in no uncertain terms that an out vote would mean yet another once in a lifetime vote on independence, as the SNP are committed to staying in Europe. When crude oil is 20 dollars a barrel I do wonder just how they would balance the books but principles are principles and by then the rich countries in the EU would send tax revenue to them and support them.

Long term members of the forum may have spotted a complete volta-face (about turn) from me. Ten years ago I was actually quite keen on sharing the cost of armed forces over EU members and having an EU armed forces.

I also disagree with your suggestion of waiting till nearer the time. The sheeple need to be thinking about the issues now not two minutes before a snap vote. As I said earlier there are three camps. The ones that are absolutely crucial are the "haven't a clue/never thought about it till now/where is this EU country anyway" types who rightly will have a vote. This vote is actually the most important thing we will ever vote on.

I totally agree with your last sentence. But the worry for me is the previous sentence ... do we REALLY want the "sheeple" as you describe them deciding NOW on the basis of uninformed media chatter, on how they will vote ?? They MUST decide on the KNOWN facts.. when they emerge ... and not the posturing of those who think they are mind-readers/clairvoyants/or simply more important than the rest of us.

Sir Tigger KC · « **Reply #22 on:** 17 January 2016, 18:27:02 »

I admire your optimism Mr Entwood that there will be some facts substantially different to what we already know. $:-\$

Like you say we must wait and see what transpires, but can anyone really see Cameron coming away with serious reforms to the EU?

I can't to be honest, there might be some minor adjustments which will be presented to us as a great victory and that will be about it. The sheeple (Love that term!

) will fall for it and it will be business as usual!

Cameron will resign on a high, hand over to Osborne and then will be shooed in as the next President of the European Council or Commission as a reward!

Cynical? Moi?

Varche · « **Reply #23 on:** 17 January 2016, 18:43:14 »

Perhaps sheeple is too blunt but I have an English aunt inlaw living in Scotland who voted yes because that was what all her Scottish neighbours wanted.

In my first post I made the point that the vast majority of people will not have a clear understanding of the issues and that includes most of the politicians. However in a democracy we all have a vote. What is important is to exercise that after making some informed judgement and not thinking about it only on the way to the polling booth. As to the facts emerging we are never going to get the facts or unbiased info. There is too much at stake with the establishment being firmly for staying in Europe.

Living in Spain, I talk to my Spanish neighbours about the EU. Not a single one of them has anything bad to say about it. Reason being they were in abject poverty with years of hunger in most of our lifetimes, then they joined the EU. For sure things haven't always gone smoothly but they are all much better off. Fabulous new Road Network, the second best high speed rail network in the world after China and so on. Mostly paid for with help from the EU (us taxpayers). Despite this, dole is scarce and amounts to about £380 a month for the household for a year. Then it is grandparents state pension that keeps many going. Unemployment , partially due to the Euro, is around 25% and there is a lost generation of kids who will not get a job for maybe yet another ten years, can't have a family, can't buy a house. Their only hope is to go to a rich country like Britain and get a job in the NHS or a bar earning fabulous wages even on the minimum compared to here.

The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.

Broomies Mate · « **Reply #24 on:** 17 January 2016, 19:06:31 »

Well said Varche, particularly your final sentence.

I predict the EU will not last another decade. France, Germany, the UK..... we are all getting itchy feet. Once those three member states decide enough is enough, the rest will either be left to rot, or have to go their own separate ways too.

I believe the UK leaving the EU will just be the start.

gbh · « **Reply #25 on:** 17 January 2016, 19:58:23 »

I'm glad I raised the issue on this forum and there have been some very intelligent comments,which has come as a bit of a surprise to me.The interest that is!! I personally would vote OUT but i'm sure the voters will think differently as lots of people don't change their bank through fear or laziness.But in saying that UKIP did very well in the Euro elections which is interesting and something the IN campaign must be worried about!!

05omegav6 · « **Reply #26 on:** 18 January 2016, 10:35:02 »

The EU already owns Scotland... certainly they've rebuilt most every road up there in the last 25 years

The only reason for Scotland staying in would be to receive more cash... they would have no choice in this as the oil that flows through the Northern Isles won't be going anywhere near an independent or European Scotland

Leaving the EU might mean closer parity with the US and Commonwealth. Exactly what this might entail I couldn't say, but by comparison I can't see it as a bad thing. Be different though $:-\$

Lagondanet · « **Reply #27 on:** 18 January 2016, 10:42:13 »

Out.

Diamond Black Geezer · « **Reply #28 on:** 18 January 2016, 11:18:15 »

Out. They need us more than we need them. The 'EU' was initially the effective brainchild of Churchill (and others) as a way of maintaining peace in mainland Europe, by allying all countries both politically and financially, tieing them together so as to avoid any future European wars. But with Britain separate, simply overseeing the transition, retaining the Empire/Commonwealth. It was British Lawyers which drafted the original constitution, so I'm told.

Cannot see why we 'can't' buy wine from France if we're not part of the EU, yet we seem perfectly able to buy wine from California, which, last time I checked wasn't in any way 'tied' with the UK since 1776. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't understand why... a fair few things get bought by the UK from China, which isn't part of Europe.... I checked on a map, and everything

LC0112G · « **Reply #29 on:** 18 January 2016, 12:34:01 »

Quote from: Diamond Black Geezer on 18 January 2016, 11:18:15

Cannot see why we 'can't' buy wine from France if we're not part of the EU, yet we seem perfectly able to buy wine from California, which, last time I checked wasn't in any way 'tied' with the UK since 1776. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't understand why... a fair few things get bought by the UK from China, which isn't part of Europe.... I checked on a map, and everything

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick there. Its not about what we will be allowed to buy if we leave the EU. Everyone will happily sell us whatever we want providing we can pay for it.

It's about what we (the UK) would be able to sell to others. The UK takes 11% of EU exports. The EU takes 50% of UK exports. If we ended up trading with the EU under "rest of the world" rules then the EU buyers would be free to buy much of what we sell from others, and that decision is usually made on price. The UK isn't a cheap source of goods so would lose out. Some sectors are protected by quotas and tariffs - farming is the prime example. You can expect the French farmers to promptly put a stop to UK exports into the EU if we leave.

Many people say we should trade with the EU under the same rules as Norway or Switzerland - neither of these are in the EU. However both countries currently pay about 90% of what the UK does to the EU (on a per capita basis) to be allowed to do so. They also have to comply with all EU directives applicable to the goods they sell within the EU, and accept the "free movement of labour", but have no say on any EU rules.

Diamond Black Geezer · « **Reply #30 on:** 18 January 2016, 12:56:11 »

Fair dos... Norwaygians and the Switzerlandians was one point I was thinking myself, but wasn't aware that they pay almost the same as we do for the right to do so

Varche · « **Reply #31 on:** 18 January 2016, 13:44:12 »

Quote from: LC0112G on 18 January 2016, 12:34:01

Quote from: Diamond Black Geezer on 18 January 2016, 11:18:15
Cannot see why we 'can't' buy wine from France if we're not part of the EU, yet we seem perfectly able to buy wine from California, which, last time I checked wasn't in any way 'tied' with the UK since 1776. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't understand why... a fair few things get bought by the UK from China, which isn't part of Europe.... I checked on a map, and everything

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick there. Its not about what we will be allowed to buy if we leave the EU. Everyone will happily sell us whatever we want providing we can pay for it.

It's about what we (the UK) would be able to sell to others. The UK takes 11% of EU exports. The EU takes 50% of UK exports. If we ended up trading with the EU under "rest of the world" rules then the EU buyers would be free to buy much of what we sell from others, and that decision is usually made on price. The UK isn't a cheap source of goods so would lose out. Some sectors are protected by quotas and tariffs - farming is the prime example. You can expect the French farmers to promptly put a stop to UK exports into the EU if we leave.

Many people say we should trade with the EU under the same rules as Norway or Switzerland - neither of these are in the EU. However both countries currently pay about 90% of what the UK does to the EU (on a per capita basis) to be allowed to do so. They also have to comply with all EU directives applicable to the goods they sell within the EU, and accept the "free movement of labour", but have no say on any EU rules.

It is true we would have to renegotiate trade agreements. However they already exist and we should just cut and paste and insist on the same deals where possible.

As a country Britain needs to get out of dead duck industries and adapt more. We are seeing that with cheap steel flooding in from China. Rather than propping that up we need to support and concentrate on the stuff we are world beaters at. A third runway would get Chinese tourists flooding in to Britain. We are good at tourism as an example.

The 11% and 50% figures may well be accurate but give a lopsided picture. The EU surely is a much bigger market and thius the 11% may well be much bigger than the 50%. If so that supports my belief that Britain buys more than it sells.

As a farmer, I know only too well about quotas and subsidies. How much do UK farmers export to Europe? I think the answer is very little. A glance in supermarkets shows very little UK produce. A story I recount oft illustrates that. Eating with a frenchman in France. Had cheese to finish with. How do you like cheese he says? Lovely like our own cheese. You have cheese? he replies. Yes. Well how come you can't buy it in French supermarkets? Same in Spain. Apart from limited cheddar(and that might come from Ireland) you cannot buy anything from a British farm. UK food etc exports are about a half of imports.

LC0112G · « **Reply #32 on:** 18 January 2016, 14:49:53 »

Quote from: Varche on 18 January 2016, 13:44:12

It is true we would have to renegotiate trade agreements. However they already exist and we should just cut and paste and insist on the same deals where possible.

What makes you think that the other countries would just agree to keep the existing EU wide agreements, given that the UK is only 65 million people versus the EU as a whole being 500 million+? Many of these agreements took years (sometimes decades) to negotiate. Many exporters would have gone bust long before the trade agreements are in place.

Quote from: Varche on 18 January 2016, 13:44:12

The 11% and 50% figures may well be accurate but give a lopsided picture. The EU surely is a much bigger market and thius the 11% may well be much bigger than the 50%. If so that supports my belief that Britain buys more than it sells.

Yes you're correct - the UK does run a trade deficit with the EU. We either need to sell more to them, or buy less from them to balance that. If the UK left the EU and built an oopsing great wall then the EU would have to find a new market for 11% of it's exports, or cut back production by 11%. The UK would have to find a market for 50% of it's exports, or cut back production by 50%. Who is going to feel the most pain under those circumstances?

Quote from: Varche on 18 January 2016, 13:44:12

As a farmer, I know only too well about quotas and subsidies. How much do UK farmers export to Europe? I think the answer is very little. A glance in supermarkets shows very little UK produce. A story I recount oft illustrates that. Eating with a frenchman in France. Had cheese to finish with. How do you like cheese he says? Lovely like our own cheese. You have cheese? he replies. Yes. Well how come you can't buy it in French supermarkets? Same in Spain. Apart from limited cheddar(and that might come from Ireland) you cannot buy anything from a British farm. UK food etc exports are about a half of imports.

Wiki says the UK exported £14Bn of food, feed and drink in 2010, with the majority going to other European countries (So lets guess £7Bn to the EU). The UK imported £32.5Bn in the same period. If a trade wall goes up, the UK Govt can't allow it's people to starve so we would still have to import £32.5Bn of food from somewhere in the short term at least until domestic production could increase to compensate. The EU on the other hand would have to import £7Bn from somewhere, and that doesn't have to be the UK - I'm sure French farmers would love to supply the Lamb that is currently exported from the UK, or accept the increase in price caused by the limited supply once UK meat is stopped.

Worse than that the EU currently spends 7% of the Common Agricultural Policy money on the UK. The farmers in the UK would lose that money, and presumably it would be redistributed across the other countries - like France(17%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%). Even if you remove the UK's contribution to the CAP, that's still going to make UK farmers less competitive when compared to their European cousins. I'm struggling to see the economic upside for UK farmers in this.

STEMO · « **Reply #33 on:** 18 January 2016, 14:53:53 »

I might as well give my true opinion: I couldn't care less. No one can truly tell us what the ramifications are one way or the other. There are bound to be unintended consequences either way.

So chill......let it all wash over you......start watching eastenders and Jeremy Kyle......soon you won't care about anything at all.......

Sir Tigger KC · « **Reply #34 on:** 18 January 2016, 16:24:06 »

Quote from: LC0112G on 18 January 2016, 14:49:53

If the UK left the EU and built an oopsing great wall....

If a trade wall goes up....

Who is talking about building 'Oppsing great walls' or 'Trade walls'?

The only people talking this talk as I understand it are those who oppose a British withdrawal from the EU and it is scare mongering.

Why would Britain throw up barriers to trade? $:-\$

However, if the EU impose tariffs on British goods following a BREXIT then as an independent sovereign nation we will be able to respond in kind.

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #35 on:** 18 January 2016, 16:55:50 »

The 11% figure may be true, Im not sure. To put it another way though, the UK is the biggest single importer of EU goods in the world.
I had my doubts about that when I first heard it, but it has been repeated so many times in the media without contradiction, that I can only assume it is true.
This would put the UK in a very strong bargaining position indeed when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU.
There is no way in the world they would try and impose tarrifs, as we would obviously reciprocate. The directors of VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault Fiat etc. (and that's only the car industry), simply wouldn't allow it to happen.
Businesses and customers (the market)decide these things in a capitalist society, not governments.When elected governments interfere in them they usually run themselves into trouble, quickly.
The 50% figure is nowhere near accurate. It was originally bandied about by Europhiles, but included the goods which leave the UK and are then transferred onto other (usually larger) ships in European ports (Rotterdam in particular), and are then exported to outside of the EU.
Even taking the 50% figure at face value, the level of exports to the EU is now below that and dropping lower with each passing month.
There seems no reason to believe that this trend will be reversed any time soon, if at all.
Exports from the UK to the world outside of the EU however are growing at quite a pace and that is what we need to concentrate on building on as that is where the future lies.
The EU is an old fashioned, protectionist club, not a million miles from the old USSR. It has no place or value in the 21st century.
There will be no wall of any kind. Their businesses will still want to sell to us, and ours will still want to sell to them. It really is that simple.
Of course trade agreements will have to be agreed, but to compare our position with Norway or Switzerland is like comparing Man utd. with Southend united.
The economic matters of course aren't the biggest issue. The purpose of the EU is and always has been, to slowly and stealthily grow into a United states of Europe. We are well along that road now,and to do that while lying to the voters of each member state is utterly undemocratic, and for that reason alone, it must be made to fail.
Our sovereingty and right to self governance is disappearing with each passing day. It is being handed to an undemocratic, inefficient, ineffective , institutionally corrupt, and intrinsically dishonest and dangerous monstrosity of an organisation which doesn't work and cant work.
As Nigel Lawson said on the subject of leaving the EU last week, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

LC0112G · « **Reply #36 on:** 18 January 2016, 17:04:10 »

Quote from: Sir Tigger on 18 January 2016, 16:24:06

Who is talking about building 'Oppsing great walls' or 'Trade walls'? The only people talking this talk as I understand it are those who oppose a British withdrawal from the EU and it is scare mongering. Why would Britain throw up barriers to trade? $:-\$

The EU already imposes tariffs on a huge number of imports from outside the area - and it's these tariffs that form trade barriers by making imported things artificially expensive for buyers within the EU. If we stick to agriculture then the average tariff is apparently 18%, and some products have more than 100%. There is a table here http://capreform.eu/how-the-eu-market-looks-to-food-exporters/

So if we exit the EU, we would have to negotiate with the EU to agree what our new tariff rates(s) will be. It's anybody's guess what these tariffs might be, but one thing I can't see it being is 0%. I suspect we'll get hit with rates similar to Australia/Canada/USA

Quote from: Sir Tigger on 18 January 2016, 16:24:06

However, if the EU impose tariffs on British goods following a BREXIT then as an independent sovereign nation we will be able to respond in kind.

The tariffs are basically automatic. The UK would probably get away with imposing reciprocal tariffs on similar imported goods, but at best that just causes UK consumers to pay more for imported goods, and at worst starts a trade/tariff war. The smaller party invariably comes off worse in such circumstances, and the UK is the smaller in this case. As stated earlier, 50% of UK exports got to EU land, whereas only 11% of EU exports go to the UK.

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #37 on:** 18 January 2016, 17:12:33 »

So to sum up that viewpoint. We have no choice but to allow our status as a self governing sovereign nation to be exchanged for membership of an undemocratic union of member states, as the alternative means that our economy may suffer ?
Churchill and our forefathers would very proud.

LC0112G · « **Reply #38 on:** 18 January 2016, 17:39:45 »

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 16:55:50

The 11% figure may be true, Im not sure. To put it another way though, the UK is the biggest single importer of EU goods in the world.
I had my doubts about that when I first heard it, but it has been repeated so many times in the media without contradiction, that I can only assume it is true.
This would put the UK in a very strong bargaining position indeed when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU.
There is no way in the world they would try and impose tarrifs, as we would obviously reciprocate. The directors of VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault Fiat etc. (and that's only the car industry), simply wouldn't allow it to happen.

I disagree. We may be the biggest importer, but the EU stands to lose up to 11% of it's total exports. We stand to lose 50% is of ours (worst case).

No, the car manufacturers wouldn't like it, but if you're intent on buying a BMW/Merc/Audi then you're unlikely to change your mind and buy a UK built Honda or Toyota anyway, so whilst sales would take a hit they wouldn't stop. And Honda/Toyota export 80% of the cars they make, to they would be hit by export tariffs too.

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 16:55:50

The 50% figure is nowhere near accurate. It was originally bandied about by Europhiles, but included the goods which leave the UK and are then transferred onto other (usually larger) ships in European ports (Rotterdam in particular), and are then exported to outside of the EU.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

So HMRC say :

•The proportion of total exports to the EU is 47 per cent in October 2015. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 41 per cent to 50 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU is 52 per cent in October 2015. Over the same period, this has ranged between 49 per cent and 55 per cent.

I've not seen any figures showing the re-exporting of UK goods - would you care to enlighten me?

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 16:55:50

The economic matters of course aren't the biggest issue.

They are. I hesitate to quote Bill Clinton, but he was spot on IMHO.

STEMO · « **Reply #39 on:** 18 January 2016, 17:42:13 »

When's the vote? This thread could end up taking a lot of server space.

Varche · « **Reply #40 on:** 18 January 2016, 18:30:17 »

I don't agree with your statement it must be made to fail.

As I said earlier you will be hard pushed to find a Spaniard that has anything bad to say about the EU. They like many other poor countries have benefitted from endless EU money paid for by the richer member countries . You make your bed and lie in it is a better phrase.

If Britain was like Germany manufacturing tons and needing a captive market then the EU suits. My view is Britain would manage away from the shackles. I just hope our commonwealth lets us back in!

Regarding agriculture. Apart from wheat just what does Britain have to export from farms that they cannot find alternative markets for surpluses? Milk? I don't think so. Meat don't
Think so. No we are a net importer. We would be free to buy from elsewhere. Olive oil (my field) is much cheaper from Morocco for example but the EU only allows minimal imports because it is protecting artificially its own producers.

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #41 on:** 18 January 2016, 18:50:28 »

Quote from: LC0112G on 18 January 2016, 17:39:45

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 16:55:50
The 11% figure may be true, Im not sure. To put it another way though, the UK is the biggest single importer of EU goods in the world.
I had my doubts about that when I first heard it, but it has been repeated so many times in the media without contradiction, that I can only assume it is true.
This would put the UK in a very strong bargaining position indeed when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU.
There is no way in the world they would try and impose tarrifs, as we would obviously reciprocate. The directors of VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault Fiat etc. (and that's only the car industry), simply wouldn't allow it to happen.

I disagree. We may be the biggest importer, but the EU stands to lose up to 11% of it's total exports. We stand to lose 50% is of ours (worst case).

No, the car manufacturers wouldn't like it, but if you're intent on buying a BMW/Merc/Audi then you're unlikely to change your mind and buy a UK built Honda or Toyota anyway, so whilst sales would take a hit they wouldn't stop. And Honda/Toyota export 80% of the cars they make, to they would be hit by export tariffs too.

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 16:55:50
The 50% figure is nowhere near accurate. It was originally bandied about by Europhiles, but included the goods which leave the UK and are then transferred onto other (usually larger) ships in European ports (Rotterdam in particular), and are then exported to outside of the EU.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

So HMRC say :

•The proportion of total exports to the EU is 47 per cent in October 2015. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 41 per cent to 50 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU is 52 per cent in October 2015. Over the same period, this has ranged between 49 per cent and 55 per cent.

I've not seen any figures showing the re-exporting of UK goods - would you care to enlighten me?

Look up The Rotterdam/ Antwerp effect and The Netherlands distortion.

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 16:55:50
The economic matters of course aren't the biggest issue.

They are. I hesitate to quote Bill Clinton, but he was spot on IMHO.

They aren't. Clinton was speaking in a different context altogether. How can the freedom, independence, sovereignty & self governance of a nation be less important than economic matters ? To concede to that would be little short of slavery imo.
Worry not, our economy will grow, thrive & prosper, if we have the sense to leave this outdated club and look towards the rest of the ever shrinking world. Not only will be be in an extremely strong position to trade with the EU, but we will once again be free to have our own seat at the WTO and deal directly with all other countries, rather than be compelled to do that through the EU as we currently do.

Migalot · « **Reply #42 on:** 18 January 2016, 19:16:53 »

Quote from: Migv6 on 18 January 2016, 18:50:28

They aren't. Clinton was speaking in a different context altogether. How can the freedom, independence, sovereignty & self governance of a nation be less important than economic matters ? To concede to that would be little short of slavery imo.
Worry not, our economy will grow, thrive & prosper, if we have the sense to leave this outdated club and look towards the rest of the ever shrinking world. Not only will be be in an extremely strong position to trade with the EU, but we will once again be free to have our own seat at the WTO and deal directly with all other countries, rather than be compelled to do that through the EU as we currently do.

Spot on!

Broomies Mate · « **Reply #43 on:** 18 January 2016, 22:30:11 »

Trivia Time: Name the only person in the whole of the UK (well, on OOF) who is an EU sympathiser?

*starts the Countdown Clock*

SIR Philbutt · « **Reply #44 on:** 03 February 2016, 22:21:58 »

So, nobody got any comments on the deal 'call me Dave' is using to win his IN votes

BBC News - Draft EU deal: What Cameron wanted and what he got

Still not changed my vote

William Hague on the 'red card' system in 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh2llRY69dc

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #45 on:** 03 February 2016, 22:32:46 »

For someone to decide to vote to remain on the basis of Daves deal ,would be proof positive that they have no intelligence to insult.

It is a copy and paste version of the con trick Harold Wilson pulled in 1975.
He is hoping no-one can remember, but hopefully they will.

SIR Philbutt · « **Reply #46 on:** 03 February 2016, 23:36:42 »

Quote from: Migv6 on 03 February 2016, 22:32:46

For someone to decide to vote to remain on the basis of Daves deal ,would be proof positive that they have no intelligence to insult.
It is a copy and paste version of the con trick Harold Wilson pulled in 1975.
He is hoping no-one can remember, but hopefully they will.

Here is the pamphlet http://www.harvard-digital.co.uk/euro/pamphlet.htm

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #47 on:** 04 February 2016, 00:24:25 »

That makes fascinating reading. All the assurances and reassurances, which are of course now ancient history. They started binning them as soon as they got the result they wanted.
I have no doubt at all that if we vote to remain in, all Camerons assurances will fall by the wayside one by one ,as soon as the dust has settled.

Lagondanet · « **Reply #48 on:** 04 February 2016, 10:20:49 »

Vote 'Leave'!

2boxerdogs · « **Reply #49 on:** 04 February 2016, 12:16:46 »

A definite out. 🙆 🙆 🙆

Migalot · « **Reply #50 on:** 04 February 2016, 16:46:58 »

Quote from: Tilbo on 04 February 2016, 12:16:46

A definite out. 🙆 🙆 🙆

Moi, aussi.

Love Europe - hate the EU.

biggriffin · « **Reply #51 on:** 04 February 2016, 19:59:40 »

Simples
in Europe but not run by Europe.

Migv6 le Frog Fan · « **Reply #52 on:** 05 February 2016, 00:10:45 »

Personally, I don't accept that I am European at all. I feel much more affinity with People from Paris Texas, than I do with people from Paris France. The only European country which interests me (fascinates actually) is Italy. We are an island off the coast of Europe we aren't a part continental Europe.
That's just my personal feelings though. As a country we can feel part of Europe without being members of the EU. Which I suppose could equate to that well worn phrase "In Europe but not run by Europe.
We cannot however be part of the EU without being ruled by the EU, it just isn't possible.

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Author Topic: Europe In or Out?? (Read 6870 times)

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