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[Diamond Black Geezer]

Fair dos... Norwaygians and the Switzerlandians was one point I was thinking myself, but wasn't aware that they pay almost the same as we do for the right to do so 

[Varche]

Cannot see why we 'can't' buy wine from France if we're not part of the EU, yet we seem perfectly able to buy wine from California, which, last time I checked wasn't in any way 'tied' with the UK since 1776. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't understand why... a fair few things get bought by the UK from China, which isn't part of Europe.... I checked on a map, and everything 

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick there. Its not about what we will be allowed to buy if we leave the EU. Everyone will happily sell us whatever we want providing we can pay for it.

It's about what we (the UK) would be able to sell to others. The UK takes 11% of EU exports. The EU takes 50% of UK exports. If we ended up trading with the EU under "rest of the world" rules then the EU buyers would be free to buy much of what we sell from others, and that decision is usually made on price. The UK isn't a cheap source of goods so would lose out. Some sectors are protected by quotas and tariffs - farming is the prime example. You can expect the French farmers to promptly put a stop to UK exports into the EU if we leave.

Many people say we should trade with the EU under the same rules as Norway or Switzerland - neither of these are in the EU. However both countries currently pay about 90% of what the UK does to the EU (on a per capita basis) to be allowed to do so. They also have to comply with all EU directives applicable to the goods they sell within the EU, and accept the "free movement of labour", but have no say on any EU rules.

It is true we would have to renegotiate trade agreements. However they already exist and we should just cut and paste and insist on the same deals where possible.

As a country Britain needs to get out of dead duck industries and adapt more. We are seeing that with cheap steel flooding in from China. Rather than propping that up we need to support and concentrate on the stuff we are world beaters at. A third runway would get Chinese tourists flooding in to Britain. We are good at tourism as an example.

The 11% and 50% figures may well be accurate but give a lopsided picture. The EU surely is a much bigger market and thius the 11% may well be much bigger than the 50%. If so that supports my belief that Britain buys more than it sells.

As a farmer, I know only too well about quotas and subsidies. How much do UK farmers export to Europe? I think the answer is very little. A glance in supermarkets shows very little UK produce. A story I recount oft illustrates that. Eating with a frenchman in France. Had cheese to finish with. How do you like cheese he says? Lovely like our own cheese. You have cheese? he replies. Yes. Well how come you can't buy it in French supermarkets?     Same in Spain. Apart from limited cheddar(and that might come from Ireland) you cannot buy anything from a British farm.  UK food etc exports are about a half of imports.

[LC0112G]

It is true we would have to renegotiate trade agreements. However they already exist and we should just cut and paste and insist on the same deals where possible.

What makes you think that the other countries would just agree to keep the existing EU wide agreements, given that the UK is only 65 million people versus the EU as a whole being 500 million+? Many of these agreements took years (sometimes decades) to negotiate. Many exporters would have gone bust long before the trade agreements are in place.

The 11% and 50% figures may well be accurate but give a lopsided picture. The EU surely is a much bigger market and thius the 11% may well be much bigger than the 50%. If so that supports my belief that Britain buys more than it sells.

Yes you're correct - the UK does run a trade deficit with the EU. We either need to sell more to them, or buy less from them to balance that. If the UK left the EU and built an oopsing great wall then the EU would have to find a new market for 11% of it's exports, or cut back production by 11%. The UK would have to find a market for 50% of it's exports, or cut back production by 50%. Who is going to feel the most pain under those circumstances?   

As a farmer, I know only too well about quotas and subsidies. How much do UK farmers export to Europe? I think the answer is very little. A glance in supermarkets shows very little UK produce. A story I recount oft illustrates that. Eating with a frenchman in France. Had cheese to finish with. How do you like cheese he says? Lovely like our own cheese. You have cheese? he replies. Yes. Well how come you can't buy it in French supermarkets?     Same in Spain. Apart from limited cheddar(and that might come from Ireland) you cannot buy anything from a British farm.  UK food etc exports are about a half of imports.

Wiki says the UK exported £14Bn of food, feed and drink in 2010, with the majority going to other European countries (So lets guess £7Bn to the EU). The UK imported £32.5Bn in the same period. If a trade wall goes up, the UK Govt can't allow it's people to starve so we would still have to import £32.5Bn of food from somewhere in the short term at least until domestic production could increase to compensate. The EU on the other hand would have to import £7Bn from somewhere, and that doesn't have to be the UK - I'm sure French farmers would love to supply the Lamb that is currently exported from the UK, or accept the increase in price caused by the limited supply once UK meat is stopped.

Worse than that the EU currently spends 7% of the Common Agricultural Policy money on the UK. The farmers in the UK would lose that money, and presumably it would be redistributed across the other countries - like France(17%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%). Even if you remove the UK's contribution to the CAP, that's still going to make UK farmers less competitive when compared to their European cousins.  I'm struggling to see the economic upside for UK farmers in this.

[STEMO]

I might as well give my true opinion: I couldn't care less. No one can truly tell us what the ramifications are one way or the other. There are bound to be unintended consequences either way.

So chill......let it all wash over you......start watching eastenders and Jeremy Kyle......soon you won't care about anything at all.......

[Sir Tigger KC]

If the UK left the EU and built an oopsing great wall....

If a trade wall goes up....

Who is talking about building 'Oppsing great walls' or 'Trade walls'?    The only people talking this talk as I understand it are those who oppose a British withdrawal from the EU and it is scare mongering.    Why would Britain throw up barriers to trade? 

However, if the EU impose tariffs on British goods following a BREXIT then as an independent sovereign nation we will be able to respond in kind.   

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

The 11% figure may be true, Im not sure. To put it another way though, the UK is the biggest single importer of EU goods in the world.
I had my doubts about that when I first heard it, but it has been repeated so many times in the media without contradiction, that I can only assume it is true.
This would put the UK in a very strong bargaining position indeed when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU.
There is no way in the world they would try and impose tarrifs, as we would obviously reciprocate. The directors of VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault Fiat etc. (and that's only the car industry), simply wouldn't allow it to happen.
Businesses and customers (the market)decide these things in a capitalist society, not governments.When elected governments interfere in them they usually run themselves into trouble, quickly.
The 50% figure is nowhere near accurate. It was originally bandied about by Europhiles, but included the goods which leave the UK and are then transferred onto other (usually larger) ships in European ports (Rotterdam in particular), and are then exported to outside of the EU.
Even taking the 50% figure at face value, the level of exports to the EU is now below that and dropping lower with each passing month.
There seems no reason to believe that this trend will be reversed any time soon, if at all.
Exports from the UK to the world outside of the EU however are growing at quite a pace and that is what we need to concentrate on building on as that is where the future lies.
The EU is an old fashioned, protectionist club, not a million miles from the old USSR. It has no place or value in the 21st century.
There will be no wall of any kind. Their businesses will still want to sell to us, and ours will still want to sell to them. It really is that simple.
Of course trade agreements will have to be agreed, but to compare our position with Norway or Switzerland is like comparing Man utd. with Southend united.
The economic matters of course aren't the biggest issue. The purpose of the EU is and always has been, to slowly and stealthily grow into a United states of Europe. We are well along that road now,and to do that while lying to the voters of each member state is utterly undemocratic, and for that reason alone, it must be made to fail.
Our sovereingty and right to self governance is disappearing with each passing day. It is being handed to an undemocratic, inefficient, ineffective , institutionally corrupt, and intrinsically dishonest and dangerous monstrosity of an organisation which doesn't work and cant work.
As Nigel Lawson said on the subject of leaving the EU last week, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

[LC0112G]

Who is talking about building 'Oppsing great walls' or 'Trade walls'?    The only people talking this talk as I understand it are those who oppose a British withdrawal from the EU and it is scare mongering.    Why would Britain throw up barriers to trade? 

The EU already imposes tariffs on a huge number of imports from outside the area - and it's these tariffs that form trade barriers by making imported things artificially expensive for buyers within the EU. If we stick to agriculture then the average tariff is apparently 18%, and some products have more than 100%. There is a table here http://capreform.eu/how-the-eu-market-looks-to-food-exporters/

So if we exit the EU, we would have to negotiate with the EU to agree what our new tariff rates(s) will be. It's anybody's guess what these tariffs might be, but one thing I can't see it being is 0%. I suspect we'll get hit with rates similar to Australia/Canada/USA

However, if the EU impose tariffs on British goods following a BREXIT then as an independent sovereign nation we will be able to respond in kind. 

The tariffs are basically automatic. The UK would probably get away with imposing reciprocal tariffs on similar imported goods, but at best that just causes UK consumers to pay more for imported goods, and at worst starts a trade/tariff war. The smaller party invariably comes off worse in such circumstances, and the UK is the smaller in this case. As stated earlier, 50% of UK exports got to EU land, whereas only 11% of EU exports go to the UK.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

So to sum up that viewpoint. We have no choice but to allow our status as a self governing sovereign nation to be exchanged for membership of an undemocratic union of member states, as the alternative means that our economy may suffer ?
Churchill and our forefathers would very proud.

[LC0112G]

The 11% figure may be true, Im not sure. To put it another way though, the UK is the biggest single importer of EU goods in the world.
I had my doubts about that when I first heard it, but it has been repeated so many times in the media without contradiction, that I can only assume it is true.
This would put the UK in a very strong bargaining position indeed when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU.
There is no way in the world they would try and impose tarrifs, as we would obviously reciprocate. The directors of VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault Fiat etc. (and that's only the car industry), simply wouldn't allow it to happen.

I disagree. We may be the biggest importer, but the EU stands to lose up to 11% of it's total exports. We stand to lose 50% is of ours (worst case).

No, the car manufacturers wouldn't like it, but if you're intent on buying a BMW/Merc/Audi then you're unlikely to change your mind and buy a UK built Honda or Toyota anyway, so whilst sales would take a hit they wouldn't stop. And Honda/Toyota export 80% of the cars they make, to they would be hit by export tariffs too. 

The 50% figure is nowhere near accurate. It was originally bandied about by Europhiles, but included the goods which leave the UK and are then transferred onto other (usually larger) ships in European ports (Rotterdam in particular), and are then exported to outside of the EU.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

So HMRC say :

•The proportion of total exports to the EU is 47 per cent in October 2015. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 41 per cent to 50 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU is 52 per cent in October 2015. Over the same period, this has ranged between 49 per cent and 55 per cent.

I've not seen any figures showing the re-exporting of UK goods - would you care to enlighten me?

The economic matters of course aren't the biggest issue.

They are. I hesitate to quote Bill Clinton, but he was spot on IMHO.

[STEMO]

When's the vote? This thread could end up taking a lot of server space.

[Varche]

I don't agree with your statement it must be made to fail.

As I said earlier you will be hard pushed to find a Spaniard that has anything bad to say about the EU. They like many other poor countries have benefitted from endless EU money paid for by the richer member countries . You make your bed and lie in it is a better phrase.

If Britain was like Germany manufacturing tons and needing a captive market then the EU suits.  My view is Britain would manage away from the shackles. I just hope our commonwealth lets us back in!

Regarding agriculture. Apart from wheat just what does Britain have to export from farms that they cannot find alternative markets for surpluses? Milk? I don't think so. Meat don't
Think so. No we are a net importer. We would be free to buy from elsewhere. Olive oil (my field) is much cheaper from Morocco for example but the EU only allows minimal imports because it is protecting artificially its own producers.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

The 11% figure may be true, Im not sure. To put it another way though, the UK is the biggest single importer of EU goods in the world.
I had my doubts about that when I first heard it, but it has been repeated so many times in the media without contradiction, that I can only assume it is true.
This would put the UK in a very strong bargaining position indeed when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU.
There is no way in the world they would try and impose tarrifs, as we would obviously reciprocate. The directors of VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Peugeot, Renault Fiat etc. (and that's only the car industry), simply wouldn't allow it to happen.

I disagree. We may be the biggest importer, but the EU stands to lose up to 11% of it's total exports. We stand to lose 50% is of ours (worst case).

No, the car manufacturers wouldn't like it, but if you're intent on buying a BMW/Merc/Audi then you're unlikely to change your mind and buy a UK built Honda or Toyota anyway, so whilst sales would take a hit they wouldn't stop. And Honda/Toyota export 80% of the cars they make, to they would be hit by export tariffs too. 

The 50% figure is nowhere near accurate. It was originally bandied about by Europhiles, but included the goods which leave the UK and are then transferred onto other (usually larger) ships in European ports (Rotterdam in particular), and are then exported to outside of the EU.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

So HMRC say :

•The proportion of total exports to the EU is 47 per cent in October 2015. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 41 per cent to 50 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU is 52 per cent in October 2015. Over the same period, this has ranged between 49 per cent and 55 per cent.

I've not seen any figures showing the re-exporting of UK goods - would you care to enlighten me?

Look up The Rotterdam/ Antwerp effect and The Netherlands distortion.

The economic matters of course aren't the biggest issue.

They are. I hesitate to quote Bill Clinton, but he was spot on IMHO.

They aren't. Clinton was speaking in a different context altogether. How can the freedom, independence, sovereignty & self governance of a nation be less important than economic matters ? To concede to that would be little short of slavery imo.
Worry not, our economy will grow, thrive & prosper, if we have the sense to leave this outdated club and look towards the rest of the ever shrinking world. Not only will be be in an extremely strong position to trade with the  EU, but we will once again be free to have our own seat at the WTO and deal directly with all other countries, rather than be compelled to do that through the EU as we currently do.

[Migalot]

They aren't. Clinton was speaking in a different context altogether. How can the freedom, independence, sovereignty & self governance of a nation be less important than economic matters ? To concede to that would be little short of slavery imo.
Worry not, our economy will grow, thrive & prosper, if we have the sense to leave this outdated club and look towards the rest of the ever shrinking world. Not only will be be in an extremely strong position to trade with the  EU, but we will once again be free to have our own seat at the WTO and deal directly with all other countries, rather than be compelled to do that through the EU as we currently do.

Spot on! 

[Broomies Mate]

Trivia Time:  Name the only person in the whole of the UK (well, on OOF) who is an EU sympathiser?

*starts the Countdown Clock*

[SIR Philbutt]

So, nobody got any comments on the deal 'call me Dave' is using to win his IN votes

BBC News - Draft EU deal: What Cameron wanted and what he got

Still not changed my vote 

William Hague on the 'red card' system in 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh2llRY69dc