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[Doctor Gollum]

Hardly a surprise following their issues earlier this year...

But is now official*.

*According to The Unindependent.

[Viral_Jim]

Lady on my team landed back from her TC holiday about 2 weeks ago. Lucky Girl!

Feel sorry for those effectively being confined to their hotels by business owners looking for money out of them.

[Doctor Gollum]

Lady on my team landed back from her TC holiday about 2 weeks ago. Lucky Girl!

Feel sorry for those effectively being confined to their hotels by business owners looking for money out of them.

The Tunisians have form for that. Completely illegal behaviour.

[zirk]

Thats a shame they had some really cheap Holiday Package Deals to Hong Kong ay the mo 

[SMD]

I was about to book my flights with them for October until a work colleague told me about their impending demise. Phew, disaster averted. Kids would have been devastated 

[Varche]

Huge repatriation effort . Not just British holidaymakers.

[Viral_Jim]

Lady on my team landed back from her TC holiday about 2 weeks ago. Lucky Girl!

Feel sorry for those effectively being confined to their hotels by business owners looking for money out of them.

The Tunisians have form for that. Completely illegal behaviour.

Yes, not somewhere I would go on holiday, for a host of reasons 

Turns out another member of my team is going on holiday on Saturday, or at least he was...

[redelitev6]

My eldest daughter and her boyfriend are in Turkey at the moment , no drama getting them home by the looks of it , due to come home the same day as planned , although they might not get back to their original Airport 

[Doctor Gollum]

My eldest daughter and her boyfriend are in Turkey at the moment , no drama getting them home by the looks of it , due to come home the same day as planned , although they might not get back to their original Airport

This is a side effect of combining flights. They will probably be bussed to the original airport foc, although this isn't guaranteed.

Media is already blaming Brexit, but fail to appreciate that most of the routes that they operate are to non EU destinations...

[Marks DTM Calib]

My eldest daughter and her boyfriend are in Turkey at the moment , no drama getting them home by the looks of it , due to come home the same day as planned , although they might not get back to their original Airport

This is a side effect of combining flights. They will probably be bussed to the original airport foc, although this isn't guaranteed.

Media is already blaming Brexit, but fail to appreciate that most of the routes that they operate are to non EU destinations...

I suspect its more down to exchange rates, given their poor state I doubt they hedged much and the pound crashing in recent months plus fuel rises are likely to be big contributors

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

The company has been in dire trouble for quite a few years.

[redelitev6]

My eldest daughter and her boyfriend are in Turkey at the moment , no drama getting them home by the looks of it , due to come home the same day as planned , although they might not get back to their original Airport

Apparently they've just been told they have to organise their own transport to the Airport

[Varche]

Yes lets blame it on Brexit. 

We have been doing mitre joints this morning , the ones that went wrong were down to Brexit.

Being serious though, the knock on effect for economies of destination countries will be problematic.  Might be an opportunity for TUI to snap up Thomas Cook next year pre booked hotels  capacity. Airline slots, planes, pilots..... There will be quite a few ramifications.

[Doctor Gollum]

My eldest daughter and her boyfriend are in Turkey at the moment , no drama getting them home by the looks of it , due to come home the same day as planned , although they might not get back to their original Airport

Apparently they've just been told they have to organise their own transport to the Airport

Some advice on that... https://www.holidaytaxis.com/blog/en/important-information-thomas-cook-customers-holidaytaxis-bookings/

If they need to rearrange as booked as part of TC package, then I can personally recommend these guys:

https://www.holidaytaxis.com/en/

Alternatively, look at getting a taxi from the resort and sharing with another couple on the same flight. A little haggle goes along way

[Sir Tigger KC]

The local cabbies must be rubbing their hands! 

[Doctor Gollum]

The holiday market, particularly flights, has changed dramatically since I started at Gatwick in '95...

Air 2000/First Choice%
Airtours/MyTravel+
Airworld#
Astraeus
Britannia/Thomson%
Caledonian+
Excel
Flying Colours#
JMC+
Monarch
Peach Air#
UK leisure*
Virgin Sun

Now one left, TUI.

*Became part of Air 2000.
#Combined to form JMC.
+Merged to become recently defunct Thomas Cook Group ( basically used Thomas Cook name to bail out European Airtours group hence Belgian, German (Condor) and Swedish operations)
%First Choice merged with Thomson and combined airlines trading as Thomson and more recently, TUI.

I remember Britannia used to operate five flights a day from Gatwick to Palma. Every day to feed the cruise ships. Not any more

[Lizzie Zoom]

The holiday market, particularly flights, has changed dramatically since I started at Gatwick in '95...

Air 2000/First Choice%
Airtours/MyTravel+
Airworld#
Astraeus
Britannia/Thomson%
Caledonian+
Excel
Flying Colours#
JMC+
Monarch
Peach Air#
UK leisure*
Virgin Sun

Now one left, TUI.

*Became part of Air 2000.
#Combined to form JMC.
+Merged to become recently defunct Thomas Cook Group ( basically used Thomas Cook name to bail out European Airtours group hence Belgian, German (Condor) and Swedish operations)
%First Choice merged with Thomson and combined airlines trading as Thomson and more recently, TUI.

I remember Britannia used to operate five flights a day from Gatwick to Palma. Every day to feed the cruise ships. Not any more

.............yes, and I would add that Thomas Cook going will only increase holiday package prices greatly to give a realistic profit level to those left in that industry.

Any thoughts on the future, or not, of Ryanair and Easyjet?  The next to go? 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Any thoughts on the future, or not, of Ryanair and Easyjet?  The next to go? 

I would have thought that one of the reasons that these package holiday companies are having a tough time is that more and more people are organising their trips themselves. 

With the internet it is so easy to book flights, accomodation, car hire yourself, so why use a company like Thomas Cook? 

So maybe it's not that people aren't travelling, they are just doing things differently. 

[Lizzie Zoom]

Any thoughts on the future, or not, of Ryanair and Easyjet?  The next to go? 

I would have thought that one of the reasons that these package holiday companies are having a tough time is that more and more people are organising their trips themselves. 

With the internet it is so easy to book flights, accomodation, car hire yourself, so why use a company like Thomas Cook? 

So maybe it's not that people aren't travelling, they are just doing things differently. 

I agree

But, I was also thinking of the fleet of aircraft operated by Thomas Cook.  Running them does not come cheap, so those costs must be within the pricing structure of the holiday package offer itself.  Did those costs help to bring TC down, just like the many airlines DG quoted?

[omegod]

I returned from Tunisia with TC last Thursday, lovely holiday, seems TC owned the hotel we stayed in so that's going to close too. Alongside the TC staff and customers I feel sorry for the locals as they are working really hard to rebuild a massively important tourist industry which has had numerous knocks over recent years. I found them to be really nice people..

The Hotel demanding money seems to be a one off and the press are overdramatising as usual.

Mossies could bugger off though, I got savaged as there had been a recent storm   

[Doctor Gollum]

Any thoughts on the future, or not, of Ryanair and Easyjet?  The next to go? 

I would have thought that one of the reasons that these package holiday companies are having a tough time is that more and more people are organising their trips themselves. 

With the internet it is so easy to book flights, accomodation, car hire yourself, so why use a company like Thomas Cook? 

So maybe it's not that people aren't travelling, they are just doing things differently. 

Very much this

JMC, and subsequently Thomas Cook, had all the shitty markets sown up... Egypt went from two holiday airports to five in a couple of years, and TC operated in all of the new resorts, likewise Turkey and Tunisia. Longhaul the same... Maldives, Dominican Republic and Cancun.

As long as EasyJet don't go long haul they will be fine... It doesn't fit their business model.

Ryanair shouldn't exist (it's a horrible product) but continues to do very well by virtue of being proactive... If a flight looks to lose money, it gets canned and everyone bumped onto different flights to fill them up.

The next big hurdle is the B737 Max issue as the current 737 fleets are starting to age and a lot of airlines, including TUI are starting to get antsy about the delays... The first aircraft had been delivered and was being operated in Europe long before the Ethiopian crash.

The repatriation efforts are mammoth, and only conceivable because it's late in the season but still won't be helped by Norwegian hogging all the larger charter aircraft to bolster their Dreamliner operation 

[Doctor Gollum]

Any thoughts on the future, or not, of Ryanair and Easyjet?  The next to go? 

I would have thought that one of the reasons that these package holiday companies are having a tough time is that more and more people are organising their trips themselves. 

With the internet it is so easy to book flights, accomodation, car hire yourself, so why use a company like Thomas Cook? 

So maybe it's not that people aren't travelling, they are just doing things differently. 

I agree

But, I was also thinking of the fleet of aircraft operated by Thomas Cook.  Running them does not come cheap, so those costs must be within the pricing structure of the holiday package offer itself.  Did those costs help to bring TC down, just like the many airlines DG quoted?

It's a bit more complicated than that, many of their newer aircraft were ex Monarch.

That list was post Dan Air/Air Europe which both went in the early '90s. And the events of 9/11 flattened the industry.

Excel went with the rise of incidents in Egypt which highlighted the fact that they were walking a fine line financially.

[omegod]

The repatriation started well, friend was due to return from JFK at 3am this morning, TC went pop at 2 am . He was on a "rescue " plane by 7am ! Some bloody going that 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Now I'm not normally one for state intervention... 

But I wonder if it would have been cheaper and easier all round for the government to provide funds for TC to wind up operations a bit slower. ie: as of today TC took no new bookings or operated any more trips even those booked and paid for, but saw all current trips through to completion including paying hotels and flights home. 

I read that the repatriation will cost taxpayers £100 million. 

[Doctor Gollum]

The repatriation started well, friend was due to return from JFK at 3am this morning, TC went pop at 2 am . He was on a "rescue " plane by 7am ! Some bloody going that 

Certainly Gatwick was getting ready yesterday afternoon...

[Doctor Gollum]

Now I'm not normally one for state intervention... 

But I wonder if it would have been cheaper and easier all round for the government to provide funds for TC to wind up operations a bit slower. ie: as of today TC took no new bookings or operated any more trips even those booked and paid for, but saw all current trips through to completion including paying hotels and flights home. 

I read that the repatriation will cost taxpayers £100 million. 

Not sure that was an available option... Technically they are operating or not. As to existing holidays, ie people already abroad, they will be largely able to to complete their holidays as the hotels are either group owned or their bookings are protected by ATOL, so they will be paid. Those expecting guests to pay twice are simply trying to profiteers from the situation.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Any thoughts on the future, or not, of Ryanair and Easyjet?  The next to go? 

I would have thought that one of the reasons that these package holiday companies are having a tough time is that more and more people are organising their trips themselves. 

With the internet it is so easy to book flights, accomodation, car hire yourself, so why use a company like Thomas Cook? 

So maybe it's not that people aren't travelling, they are just doing things differently. 

I agree

But, I was also thinking of the fleet of aircraft operated by Thomas Cook.  Running them does not come cheap, so those costs must be within the pricing structure of the holiday package offer itself.  Did those costs help to bring TC down, just like the many airlines DG quoted?

It's a bit more complicated than that, many of their newer aircraft were ex Monarch.

That list was post Dan Air/Air Europe which both went in the early '90s. And the events of 9/11 flattened the industry.

Excel went with the rise of incidents in Egypt which highlighted the fact that they were walking a fine line financially.

Blimey, they are names of the past, both of whom we flew with back in the 1980's out of Bristol!  

Dan Air was certainly flying on a budget, but Air Europe were damn good with excellent in flight food, everything spotless and at the top of their game in their sector of the industry.

[Doctor Gollum]

Incidentally, two Thomas Cook Airlines are still operating... Condor and Thomas Cook Balearics.

It would seem that they are separate from the parent group somehow

[TheBoy]

Their demise was a combo of

Exchange rate, particularly against euro and dollar, causing many people to to book foreign holidays
Exchange rate against dollar - fuel price
General UK uncertainty over the last 2 or 3 years due to B word, people staying at home, partly as a wait and see, partly due to...
Recession. Its only just reached technical recession, but reality is its been there for 3 or 4 years
As DG says, many of their popular destinations are unstable, particularly the Arabic ones around the Med

[ronnyd]

Now I'm not normally one for state intervention... 

But I wonder if it would have been cheaper and easier all round for the government to provide funds for TC to wind up operations a bit slower. ie: as of today TC took no new bookings or operated any more trips even those booked and paid for, but saw all current trips through to completion including paying hotels and flights home. 

I read that the repatriation will cost taxpayers £100 million. 

Was listening to Simon Calder, who the BBC asks about all things travel, and he said that he booked  a holiday at midnight (Sun) so TC were still taking money at that late juncture. Suppose they were still hopeful of an eleventh hour reprieve.

[Doctor Gollum]

He's a twa tt not a journalist.

He posted an article with the title including the word 'collapsed' at around 11pm.

This was changed at around 01:30 to 'on the brink of collapse' although the article itself wasn't changed at all.

Rightly or wrongly, they weren't obliged to announce anything until 7am today.

Incidentally, although the website was still up after midnight, you couldn't actually book anything, (I looked )

[redelitev6]

He's a twa tt not a journalist.

He posted an article with the title including the word 'collapsed' at around 11pm.

This was changed at around 01:30 to 'on the brink of collapse' although the article itself wasn't changed at all.

Rightly or wrongly, they weren't obliged to announce anything until 7am today.

Incidentally, although the website was still up after midnight, you couldn't actually book anything, (I looked )

He might have been a bit previous with the word "collapse" but the writing was on the wall for all too see , I think more people would have been surprised if it had been rescued ?

[Doctor Gollum]

I knew at 17:30 yesterday, which is when I got a text asking my availability over the next four days.

Each flight was formally told once it was on its way back.

But, yes, the writing has been on the wall since early summer, although they might have hung on to the end of the month...

[TheBoy]

But never fear, because its all an illusion, because Project Fear is a figment of every (respectable) economists' imagination

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Badly run companies will always go bust, Brexit or no Brexit. TC has been on the skids for many years, while the directors have been paying themselves many millions in bonuses while they still could.

[TheBoy]

Badly run companies will always go bust, Brexit or no Brexit. TC has been on the skids for many years, while the directors have been paying themselves many millions in bonuses while they still could.

No doubt Monarch was a badly run company as well

Some companies will always fall first.  But being a regular visitor to a few countries, Brexit *IS* having a dramatic impact on the number of people going on foreign hols, and earlier this year, a resort we go to annually was virtually devoid of Brits (which suits me fine).

So I suspect Monarch and TC are just the start of holiday oriented firms going. As was entirely predicted 3yrs ago.

[Doctor Gollum]

To be fair to Monarch, the family that ran it from inception wanted to cash out. Once Graybull Capital got involved things changed and I suspect that there were various political and non retail commercial reasons for its demise.

It had previously cut back its operation to improve performance but was slow to react to a rapidly changing market. A lot of their aircraft went to TC and crew ended up between TC and EasyJet.

Thomas Cook simply owed too much money to remain viable.

I suspect that many of the crew will end up either at BA or EasyJet, and if EasyJet also pick up the routes and aircraft, there will be some decent deals on offer moving forward.

None of which will help those being turfed out of their hotels

[TheBoy]

Thomas Cook simply owed too much money to remain viable.

They have had it hard for a decade - initially the 2008 financial crash, then the impact of the Arab Spring due to their locations, and the final straw being the huge reduction in bookings due to Brexit uncertainty and the associated looming technical recession.

Brexit will take many more casualties over the next couple of generations 

[omegod]

Saw earlier that TC aircrew are still staffing the TC planes being used for repatriation, I guess the CAA will pay them for their time but still shows a bit of dedication in a shitty time 

[Doctor Gollum]

I noticed on the news that one of the aircraft grounded in Manchester was actually a lease from a Lithuanian carrier, so that is perfectly feasible 

[Rods2]

Airlines, holidays companies & trains have much in common where profits are largely non-existent unless you are very fleet footed & keep firm control of costs, especially advertising. Most national carriers have had numerous bailouts from their governments where they are seen as prestigious icons for that country & where overall they have never made a profit. The profits they make in the boom times are more than wiped out during recessions.

September to December is always the peak time for holiday companies & travel agents going bust, where they use the forward cash flow where you pay before they incur the travel costs to keep staving off the inevitable but where most holiday companies & travel agents slow down rapidly in September from the summer peak & make losses in their two quietest months of October & November often relying on bank overdraft support, if the banks don't like the look of a poor balance sheet & the risk, they withdraw support, so the company goes bust.

[Varche]

Badly run companies will always go bust, Brexit or no Brexit. TC has been on the skids for many years, while the directors have been paying themselves many millions in bonuses while they still could.

No doubt Monarch was a badly run company as well

Some companies will always fall first.  But being a regular visitor to a few countries, Brexit *IS* having a dramatic impact on the number of people going on foreign hols, and earlier this year, a resort we go to annually was virtually devoid of Brits (which suits me fine).

So I suspect Monarch and TC are just the start of holiday oriented firms going. As was entirely predicted 3yrs ago.

Still plenty of Brits going to Spain, up on last year so no Brexit effect there.

I read today in the Spanish press that Thomas Cook transports 3.5 million Europeans to mainly the Balearics and the Canaries. It is a disaster for Spain. Even if some company picks up or mops up the forward bookings , they wont want to be paying the rates Thomas Cook agreed. I bet Jet2 and Tui are working overtime on the maths!

[Doctor Gollum]

Both predominantly fly from regional airports, so their customer bases are much more evenly spread.

Jet2 has a slight advantage in that it runs online only, so effectively has one office as opposed to TUIs high street presence.

[redelitev6]

My Daughter and her Boyfriend were "repatriated" from Turkey last night , came back to the same airport and at the scheduled time , no dramas , the "rescue" from her all inclusive hotel with a nice pool and good food must have been a big relief 

[Doctor Gollum]

My Daughter and her Boyfriend were "repatriated" from Turkey last night , came back to the same airport and at the scheduled time , no dramas , the "rescue" from her all inclusive hotel with a nice pool and good food must have been a big relief 

That's how it's supposed to work in an ideal world. The reason that they don't guarantee the same airport is that they tend to use much larger aircraft, ie A380/A340-600/747s with two or three times the capacity of the original flights

[Lizzie Zoom]

Heard a travel correspondent this evening state that the industry is talking about all this costing the Government, then you and I, up to 500,000 million! This is the expected cost of all the aircraft hire charges, fuel, staffing, and paying compensation to all the hotels, and others like coach companies, who should have been paid by TC by now for holidays going back up to 90 days, that they will not be able to do.

Apparently the Aptol funds, to cover this type of holiday company failure, are being wiped out which will have to be replenished by way of extra insurance being paid by holiday makers when they book future holidays.

And the directors received bonuses on top of their million pound salaries !

[Doctor Gollum]

The airlines have to pay into the ATOL scheme in order to be covered by it.

The increase should come as no surprise given the size of contribution that Thomas Cook won't be contributing next year and the scale of covering two weeks of a 34 aircraft operating schedule.

Also, aircraft only make money with passengers on them... The repatriation fleet is only operating one way.

Also that £500m will include the burden of refunding future bookings.

[Lizzie Zoom]

The airlines have to pay into the ATOL scheme in order to be covered by it.

The increase should come as no surprise given the size of contribution that Thomas Cook won't be contributing next year and the scale of covering two weeks of a 34 aircraft operating schedule.

Also, aircraft only make money with passengers on them... The repatriation fleet is only operating one way.

Also that £500m will include the burden of refunding future bookings.

Thanks DG, I meant to type that, half a billion pounds, but added another nought!

It certainly is a massive operation, and no wonder it is going to cost that given what you have explained, plus all the compensation and back payment of the outstanding hotel bills I mentioned

[Rods2]

Heard a travel correspondent this evening state that the industry is talking about all this costing the Government, then you and I, up to 500,000 million! This is the expected cost of all the aircraft hire charges, fuel, staffing, and paying compensation to all the hotels, and others like coach companies, who should have been paid by TC by now for holidays going back up to 90 days, that they will not be able to do.

Apparently the Aptol funds, to cover this type of holiday company failure, are being wiped out which will have to be replenished by way of extra insurance being paid by holiday makers when they book future holidays.

And the directors received bonuses on top of their million pound salaries !

No surprises here where the travel industry has always had more than its fair share of barrow boys, spivs & fly-by-nights as founders, owners and directors so no surprises here. I worked as a contracting programmer for a several years in the noughties for several travel agents and saw a few go bust one of which cost me a bad debt of circa £10k.