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[Varche]

We have armed troops in the Ukraine from an unidentified country! We have Russian troops flexing their might(and the might of the worlds most powerful man according to Forbes).

We might think in the West it doesn't matter let them get on with it BUT a lot of Europes wheat goes out through the Crimea. Without it bread and pasta will go up. Turmoil on the stock markets won't be good for European stock market confidence, investment and recovery. In fact Russians might not feel tempted to invest in property etc

Oh and Putins trump card. He supplies about a third of European gas. How did we let ourselves walk into that!

My gut feeling is that the Western part(North South line including the Crimea) of the Ukraine will end up back under Russian control - a bit like East Germany. That will take a couple of years to get to and a lot of uncertainty. The West can't go to war over the issue. We can impose some sanctions- that is about it.

What does anyone else think? What does Rods2 think will happen?

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

We have armed troops in the Ukraine from an unidentified country! We have Russian troops flexing their might(and the might of the worlds most powerful man according to Forbes).

We might think in the West it doesn't matter let them get on with it BUT a lot of Europes wheat goes out through the Crimea. Without it bread and pasta will go up. Turmoil on the stock markets won't be good for European stock market confidence, investment and recovery. In fact Russians might not feel tempted to invest in property etc

Oh and Putins trump card. He supplies about a third of European gas. How did we let ourselves walk into that!

My gut feeling is that the Western part(North South line including the Crimea) of the Ukraine will end up back under Russian control - a bit like East Germany. That will take a couple of years to get to and a lot of uncertainty. The West can't go to war over the issue. We can impose some sanctions- that is about it.

What does anyone else think? What does Rods2 think will happen?

The most likely outcome, I think.

Land grab without a 'real invasion'

[Johnny English]

Hard question Varche as close half of Ukraine's population is Russian even I don't understand how they could be together up to now at all. My guess is Putin's intention to be creating a spare territory as a possible conflict-zone between NATO and Russian federation getting realised in these weeks. Despite the fact of Ukrainians are also slavic people Russia never considered them brothers. Once I have met some Russian speaker Ukrainians and asked about nationality of them : "Ukrainian" answered and added that "it just means people who living on the edge of country" and really: "krainiy"  or "kray" means edge of something. To lose East-Ukraine would be a total K.O. for Ukraine as most of industry, tourism and the best facilities there are. West-Ukraina is much poorer she has no more than agriculture. I think Putin gonna create a referendum where the majority will vote beside the independency as most of them are Russians.

[Lizzie_Zoom]

So many questions, and once again a very complex international situation with significant historical roots that once had the British Empire involved in some famous military action, but now is about Russia facing up to Russian speaking , and in many cases a loyal to Russia population in Crimea / Ukraine.

But for sure the West should stay well clear of this one as it has little to do with us, and is certainly not worth the risk of war, which I understand all Western governments are in agreement with. This is no excuse to start World War III.

[05omegav6]

Surely better for Ukraine to be part of Mother Russia and stable, than wind up like Yugoslavia 

[tigers_gonads]

Putin has been running rings around the so called leaders of the west for years.
He also makes no secret of longing for the old days of the USSR and the security its satellite states gave to the motherland.

A quick look at Ukraine
Whether Yanakovich is a dodgy character or not is irrelevant.
He was democratically elected into power by the people of the Ukraine and was removed by mob rule which is always going to end in tears.  See Libya and Syria for details.

The western half who mostly speak Ukrainian wants to be in the EU / NATO and all the grants / benefits it brings.
The eastern half who mostly speak Russian wants to renew closer ties to Russia.

Russia is genuinely paranoid about having a NATO country sat on its doorstep too.

Where will it end ?
Imo, this is the start of Cold War 2 
Ukraine will end up being split in two with a big fence between them.

What can the west do about it ?
Sweet F**k All 

As said, Russia holds most of the cards again.
They have oil, gas and raw materials a plenty.
Us in Europe have next to nothing and have to go cap in hand to Putin to supply the gas or mainland Europe will freeze 
Us in the UK at least had the brains to do a deal with Norway and build a pipeline across the North Sea.
We also have been increasing the amount of bulk LPG we import via tankers so we should be okay on that front 
There is no way on earth that the UK will back sanctions against Russia because the first thing they would do is take there money out of the London banking world. This would screw us up big style 

What can NATO do about it ?
Eh, nothing 
The hierarchy couldn't organise a piss up and a brewery and we haven't the men, machines, ammo or spares to go against Russia like we could have done 25 years ago 
In fact the only way we could hold Russia if it got nasty is by using Trident and that is basically the end of the world 

If this happens, the question for me is .............. who's next ?
Poland or maybe Estonia ?
I just hope Rods family are in the western side of the country 

One last thing about Russia.
Where as we in the west always tend to think short term to keep the votes / people happy, the Russians and Chinese always play the long game 
If the western leaders has any brains at all, the above fact should scare the shit out of them   

[Rods2]

There is much less support by Russian people in the East for a Russian invasion than you imagine. A lot of the Freedom Square protesters were Russian speaking from the east of the country. They actually like the idea of the EU agreement and the chance to earn much more money by getting a jobs in Europe, which relaxed visa restrictions as part of the EU agreement would allow. Most revolutions are by young people, many of the Freedom Square protesters were old men and women, that is because many of the men were Red Army Afghan veterans who came to 'protect their children'.

Reports suggest that many of the protestors in the East Ukraine are Russian agent provocateurs, which they will use as a pre-text if necessary.

The fact that the interim Ukraine government and the Russian government are now talking is a good sign and the Russian / US / EU foreign ministers are meeting in Paris tomorrow is another one.

Yanukovych is finished, where his massive corruption and alleged theft of $30billion in 3.5 years of rule have come to light. The people knew he was raping the country financially, which is no surprise as he is an alleged convicted thief and rapist, who allegedly got the judge who he appointed as head of the supreme court to lose the paperwork. When this was questioned in the run up to the election in 2010 his answer was prove it by showing the court papers. He was trying to create a one party system, by jailing or barring all credible opponents to himself in the 2015 election. Putin has got away with this in Russia, but the Ukrainian people weren't having it. Putin treats him with contempt, where he failed and is keeping him in the background to use as a useful fool when necessary.

I personally think any splitting of the country will end up with massive instability where no region is exclusively Russian or Ukrainian and the Ukrainians being Cossacks are fighters. Many are Afghan veterans from when they were conscripts in the red army and are quite well aware of what it is like to be on the wrong end of irregular forces and of course they were the famous Partisans of WWII, who made sure very few Germans who escaped from Stalingrad made it back across Ukraine to the German front lines. When the Nazis controlled Ukraine during WWII and had a policy of killing 100 civilians for each German soldier killed, this did not stop the Partisans. The Ukrainians were briefly a sovereign state in 1918, before being taken over by the Bolsheviks and were very badly treated under Soviet rule, especially by Stalin who starved to death 5 to 8 million in West Ukraine in the 1932 Holodomor over collectivization and was his favourite WWII cannon fodder. Believe me there is no love lost between the Ukrainians of West Ukraine and Russia.

What will happen in Crimea I don't know, the Russians for strategic reasons may well keep it. The population split is about 60% Russian, 25% Ukrainian, and 15% muslim Tartars. The Tartars hate the Russians after Stalin transported most of them to Siberian labour camps in the 1940's and want to stay Ukrainian. How long before Al qaeda gets involved like in Syria? Strategically Crimea is much more important to Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine will actually be stronger economically without it where is is a big drain on the national finances.

Russia achilles heel is their economy, which has tanked over the last 3 years with growth dropping from an average of 5.5% to 1.3% and still dropping. This Monday cost them $10billion in central bank support of the Ruble, a 1.5% interest rate rise and a 9% drop in their stock market. The US and EU threat of selective visa restrictions, freezing of assets etc, might sound like a weak response, but the core of Putin's control of the Russian Government and people relies on the support of a small group of oligarchs. Now if their assets are frozen including their foreign business interests, they cannot get visas for travel, which will include expensive but unused yachts then this will sow the seed of discontent within his core. Europe has reduced their dependence on Russian gas from 45% to 25% and this will continue to drop. Putin burnt his boat here when he cut of gas to Ukraine, which also meant Bulgaria and Romania ran out of gas in winter. The EU is determined to cut their dependence to close to zero. The current trend for oil and gas prices (apart from the current blip) is downwards and again Putin needs a growing economy with a high feelgood factor for his 2016 elections.

Russia as part of the talks in Paris, want to see more Russian representation from the east of the country (ie more influence) in the interim government. If an agreement is reached in Paris then jaw, jaw may triumph over war, war.

Militarily wise the West will do nothing, they will not risk a direct conflict between two nuclear armed nations and quite rightly so. Obama is a very weak President, who threw away all his bargaining cards over Syria, which will hit the Democratic party vote wise (remember Carter) with the Republicans doing well in polls for the mid-term elections and when the president finishes his second term. American's do not like presidents who are weak on the world's stage after all of the money they pump into the military.

The worst case scenario would be Russia annexing all of the Ukraine, which means they will have to prop it up with $31billion as an absolute minimum over the next 2 years and having to contend with an Afghanistan / Yugoslavia scenario and all of the costs this involves in money and human capital, with ieds or worse around many corners waiting for their army of occupation. In this scenario, the US might supply arms to the Partisans directly or through third-parties like they did when Russia invaded Afghanistan.

Continued:

[Rods2]

Lizzie from a historical point of view might be interested in several articles written by Professor Timothy Snyder about Ukraine on the nybooks blog. The guy is an obvious liberal, but the writing is in a very sober form where he Professor of History at Yale University, specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. For the academic year 2013–2014, he has been the holder of the Philippe Roman Chair of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

This is his most recent:

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/?insrc=hpss

This is a very complex situation, with one or two reasonably good outcomes and many, many possible bad ones. How it will end up I've no idea as it is a very fluid situation, with all sides making good and bad decisions as things unfold. I can only hope for the best.

[Johnny English]

And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...

[Rods2]

Surely better for Ukraine to be part of Mother Russia and stable, than wind up like Yugoslavia 

It will never be stable under Russian control as the West Ukrainians hate the Russians and what they did to the people in Soviet times. If they annex the country you will end up with Afghanistan / Yugoslavian situation or worse.

Yesterday, the matching of the Colonel and his troops up to the Russian line at the military airport and not stopping until they reached their objective, despite the Russians firing into the air, was planned. Likewise the football match afterwards. The marching was telling the Russians, we are not scared of you and the football match played in front of of them? You can't intimidate us. This Ukrainian / Cossack attitude to a T.

[Gaffers]

Surely better for Ukraine to be part of Mother Russia and stable, than wind up like Yugoslavia 

It will never be stable under Russian control as the West Ukrainians hate the Russians and what they did to the people in Soviet times. If they annex the country you will end up with Afghanistan / Yugoslavian situation or worse.

Yesterday, the matching of the Colonel and his troops up to the Russian line at the military airport and not stopping until they reached their objective, despite the Russians firing into the air, was planned. Likewise the football match afterwards. The marching was telling the Russians, we are not scared of you and the football match played in front of of them? You can't intimidate us. This Ukrainian / Cossack attitude to a T.

Yup.  We westerners will never understand it.  Leave them to it I say.  Russia knows it cannot go too far without provoking a response (which would be just as detrimental to Russia as us)

Welcome to 21st century warfare, a fight without fighting.

[Rods2]

And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...

If you think the Russians are right? Then so was the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 1950's / 1960's as the reasons are largely the same? The people want independence from the bullying Russian bear!

The Ukrainian parliament have only repealed a hated law passed by Yanukovych making Russian and Ukrainian both official languages. To do so at this time was a mistake in my view. The Ukrainians who speak Russian will carry on doing so as the majority of them are actually Ukrainian, who speak Russian for historical reasons, where it was the official language of the Soviet Union. This applies across families in different parts of the Ukraine including my extended one. Most Ukrainians apart from those in the very east and Crimea speak both languages. Russian will stay as the second language of the Ukraine. The languages are very close, with Ukrainian classed as old Russian.

[Johnny English]

And what if Russia is right in this situation? I mean, whether occurred these events if Ukrainian Rada behaved a bit more friendly with foreign language minorities? If kept the law, which guaranteed free language using for all the minorities of Ukraine? Slovakian, Romanian, Hungarian, Russian and so on...

If you think the Russians are right? Then so was the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 1950's / 1960's as the reasons are largely the same? The people want independence from the bullying Russian bear!

The Ukrainian parliament have only repealed a hated law passed by Yanukovych making Russian and Ukrainian both official languages. To do so at this time was a mistake in my view. The Ukrainians who speak Russian will carry on doing so as the majority of them are actually Ukrainian, who speak Russian for historical reasons, where it was the official language of the Soviet Union. This applies across families in different parts of the Ukraine including my extended one. Most Ukrainians apart from those in the very east and Crimea speak both languages. Russian will stay as the second language of the Ukraine. The languages are very close, with Ukrainian classed as old Russian.

There were no minority-related acts by legislation so the situation is certainly not the same.

[tigers_gonads]

Your the man in the know Rods, thanks for that lot 

At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.

Hope your family is okay ?

Keep us informed if you will, its certainly more interesting then the joys of STEMO's anal inspections     

[Stemo]

Your the man in the know Rods, thanks for that lot 

At the end of the day, us lot have a mixture of the BBC, Murdoch News and Putin news (RT) so we make a best guess based on the crap that they spew out.

Hope your family is okay ?

Keep us informed if you will, its certainly more interesting then the joys of STEMO's anal inspections 

To you......maybe