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[ronnyd]

With us leaving, B Liars dream of the EU presidency is in tatters. Oh dear me, what a shame.

[Rods2]

Albs is correct we are leaving a club and when we do no further subs are due. We may decide to have a transitional arrangement and make further payments during this period and we may decide to make a small good will payment but that surely must depend upon concluding a trade agreement first. Where there is considerable friction in Eastern Europe where Brussels is trying to impose refugee quotas, when they lose their subsidies they may decide they are better off joining the UK in EFTA. A trade club that does not try to be an ever closer union dysfunctional country with half a currency called the Euro.

The divorce bill is very easily dealt with. The EU where they are appointed don't have to worry about the ballot box, the Government's of member states do. It is very easy to divide and conqueror where WTO tariffs are high for automobiles and agricultural products. There is global overcapacity in car manufacturing and food, which will hit the Germans, French and Spanish hard if no trade agreement is reached and we do low ideally no tariff deals with the rest of the world to be signed within a few days of leaving. We may also be able to apply tariff quotas so anything above a certain amount goes to an even higher rate. Then make the UK corporation tax very low say 10% or even o% and watch all of the Eire and Luxemburg companies relocate to the UK. Of course, the French and Spanish farmers won't be complaining to their government, oh no, they will be telling well done our governments and the Brits where we love watching our food rot in fields and the German car makers will be doing the same when we buy our much cheaper ROW cars where they can create fields of unsold cars on new set aside land full of unsold rotting crops. The Germans might be able to clear the fields of cars a bit to all the richer African, South American, Aussie and New Zealand farmers where they are supplying food to the UK instead.

If they want to play high stakes poker we can do the same, but they do need to remember they sell much more to us than we do to them. Personally, I would rather not play trade war games where both sides will be major losers, but if they insist they will leave us with no choice. In the short term we will lose a bigger percentage of our exports, but as we rebalance our economy towards the rest of the world Europe will be the biggest long term loser. In Ukraine Russia-Ukraine import export market was their biggest and has now all but disappeared leading to a sharp 2014 onwards recession. It has taken Ukraine about 2 years to rebalance their economy towards the ROW and they are now growing strongly, so expect the same in the UK.

Personally, I think the French (Macron is already making noises on this) and Germans will take charge as they won't want the political fallout from losing a big part of the UK market.

Divorces are as clean and cheap or as difficult and expensive as both parties make them. Both come out of it much better if they go the clean and cheap route.

[Kevin Wood]

With us leaving, B Liars dream of the EU presidency is in tatters. Oh dear me, what a shame.

Shame. Oh, well, there's still his dream of achieving peace in the middle east.

[TheBoy]

Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU didn't mention it.

.......where the f*ck has it come from?

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.

It was mentioned before the referendum that there would be a significant, though undisclosed, financial penalty to pay, but the mainstream media and Farage knobjockeys had other agendas.  Said people we also under a dillusion that the UK would be able to make deals with individual EU member states at the time as well.


I remember speaking to some friends before the debate, and they were unware of this, so clearly the usual suspects weren't giving their audience a balanced view.

[TheBoy]

The BBC took their usual pessimistic stance in the 7.00 news on R2 saying that Sterling had declined against the US dollar and the Euro today on the news that the EU/UK talks weren't going well. 

What they didn't inform the nation was that in afternoon trading Sterling regained almost all the mornings losses against the USD and that  the value of Sterling against the Euro has been volatile ie it's been up and down like a whores drawers all day!     

And being in a position where I might need some Euros, its fair to say, the pound is pretty well oppsed.

Fortunately, because it was blindingly obvious what was going to happen once the referendum results came in, I bought a bucket load of euros.  Sadly, clearly I've been on too many euro trips, as I'm down to my last €700, so need to buy some for next week.  €1.04 per £1, so I won't be buying many...   ...though I suspect it still has room to go much lower

[Varche]

The BBC took their usual pessimistic stance in the 7.00 news on R2 saying that Sterling had declined against the US dollar and the Euro today on the news that the EU/UK talks weren't going well. 

What they didn't inform the nation was that in afternoon trading Sterling regained almost all the mornings losses against the USD and that  the value of Sterling against the Euro has been volatile ie it's been up and down like a whores drawers all day!     

And being in a position where I might need some Euros, its fair to say, the pound is pretty well oppsed.

Fortunately, because it was blindingly obvious what was going to happen once the referendum results came in, I bought a bucket load of euros.  Sadly, clearly I've been on too many euro trips, as I'm down to my last €700, so need to buy some for next week.  €1.04 per £1, so I won't be buying many...   ...though I suspect it still has room to go much lower

That is the general view on expat forums. Short term to keep going down. Euroland growth figures yesterday were good. Not much good news coming out of Britain at the moment. A lot of expats suffering if they are reliant on UK sterling pensions.

latest today https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7444-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-could-see-more-gains-as-market-rounds-on-euro

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

It was actually the Remain side who put out the story that we would be dealing with 27 separate European countries. They said it would be impossibly complicated to do.
The pound was known to be overvalued and due a correction, before the referendum. However it has since dropped below the level it needed to for the correction.
This is due to uncertainty, which the markets do not like. Most of the uncertainty comes from remoaners such as the BBC ignoring any good news and grossly exaggerating any bad news.That coupled with the EU deliberately throwing spanners in the works every step of the way is making things look a bit on the bleak side.
I would have thought that all but the hardest of remainers should now be getting pissed off with Juncker, Barnier etc. and the way they are going about this process.
They are self evidently not interested in whats best for their own countries, never mind ours, or have any sense of right / wrong / decency/ fair play.
If I wasn't already convinced we should leave, I would be now after their recent disgraceful shenanigans.
In the longer term I have not doubt whatsoever that we will do just fine, and their precious undemocratic, economically illogical empire will collapse around their ears.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I can't see how the 'negotiations' will go anywhere at the moment, as the EU have boxed themselves into a corner assuming that the UK would simply pay and do whatever they demanded to get on with trade talks. 

Given their notorious intransigence, I can't see them changing their attitude either as this will involve much loss of face, and every time I see Michel Barnier looking irritated at a press conference, it makes me smile as it's clear to me that the talks arn't going as he planned! 

[TheBoy]

I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Recessions are cyclical, usually we get one each decade. So I would agree we are due another one, when we haven't yet fully recovered from the last one, although it isn't completely inevitable.
Brexit negotiations will decide the future of the EU project though whatever happens. There will be a power struggle over the outcome between the Eurocrats who are only interested in "the project", and European business who want to continue to freely sell their products and services to the UK.
The Eurocrats want to punish the UK for having the audacity to leave, even if it seriously damages European economies in the process, as a successful post Brexit UK is their worst nightmare.
Vag BMW, Mercedes, Fiat, Citreon, Renault, Peugeot (and that is just one industry) have no interest in this. They want to run successful businesses without being hamstrung by politicians, who are almost by definition, too stupid to run a corner shop, never mind a global business.
We shall see who appears to have won at the end of the process, but I cant see any long term outcome other than business being the winner.
Stupid politicians need money to waste, and they need businesses to generate it so they can take it from them and squander it.
The markets always decide in the end. Theres no way around it.

[Lizzie Zoom]

I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

I have to publish this again as it all feels just like this still:

Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
   Someone had blundered.
   Theirs not to make reply,
   Theirs not to reason why,
   Theirs but to do and die.
   Into the valley of Death
   Rode the six hundred.

III
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
   Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
   Rode the six hundred.

Extract from Alfred, Lord Tennyson's great poem of a fateful charge because others had got their communications all wrong!

[TheBoy]

Recessions are cyclical, usually we get one each decade. So I would agree we are due another one, when we haven't yet fully recovered from the last one, although it isn't completely inevitable.

I have never disagreed that leaving the EU was right (or wrong), it was just the timing was completely the wrong time to leave. Its forced us into a recession at the time we could not afford it, and just when we were starting to make progress on on reducing the deficit. And nobody else is in recession. So this one is self inflicted. Unnecessarily.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

No I don't agree that we're going into recession, difficult times ahead for sure but not recession.  I think the UK's economy will continue to grow, but the growth will be weak at about 1% annually for the next few years while the country adjusts to life outside the EU. 

[Doctor Gollum]

With us leaving, B Liars dream of the EU presideny is in tatters. Oh dear me, what a shame.

Shame. Oh, well, there's still his dream of achieving peace in the middle east.

Perhaps he will move to French France and become French... Afterall, being a smug, delusional tunc, he should fit right in

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Best post Ive read this year.