Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[TheBoy]

I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

No I don't agree that we're going into recession, difficult times ahead for sure but not recession.  I think the UK's economy will continue to grow, but the growth will be weak at about 1% annually for the next few years while the country adjusts to life outside the EU. 

Anybody working in an industry selling stuff to end customers will tell you we're already there .  All retailers with shareholders are having to publically downgrade projections, and quite a lot are issuing profits warnings...   ...obviously with one-off excuses just to reduce private shareholder jitter.

Another strange thing I can see from bro's figures is more people seem to be buying on debit cards, away from credit cards.  This is often seen during recessions as (sensible) people only buy what they can afford.


And when the end customers stop spending, the whole house of cards falls over.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell...................rode all of us!!

[Rods2]

UK's biggest problem is time, where we fall off the Article 50 cliff in March 2019. As I have previously written, I can't see how enough of the crucial details can be worked out by then, so we need a transition agreement and I suspect this will need to be more like three years than one where you can't unpick 40 years of integration and lost administrative skills in 5 minutes. Even a transition arrangement needs much work as all things cease in March 2019 and even with a transition agreement how all things work within the agreement will have to be confirmed.

We are also getting towards the end of the current economic cycle which I personally think will end before March 2019. The current pound weakness and much-needed correction mean UK industrial output is very buoyant at the moment.

Personally, if there is a recession in 2019 it is worth it where in the longer term we will be much better off, especially when the EU eventually falls apart.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I was watching The Andrew Marr Show last night on iplayer and he was interviewing Labours BREXIT bod Kier Starmer, who was explaining Labours recent policy U-Turn on the Single Market and Customs Union as a 'policy development'! 

He was also saying that Britain needs a transitional period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union for an unspecified amount of time.  Other Labour figures such as Tom Watson and Chuka Umunna have indicted that this state of affairs could be permanent. Beyond this the Labour party don't seem to have any vision for BREXIT Britain. 

A transitional period is supported by British politicians of all stripes, but it occurred to me that no EU politicians have indicated that this will be necessary.  Has anyone heard Junker, Merkel, Tusk, Macron etc mention this?   

I think that come 30th March 2019 we'll be booted out on our ear.......  but we might be £100bn better off! 

[Varche]

How about £100 billion divorce bill

Transitional period of say twenty years during which time we cannot agree any trade deals

Norway style trade system for those twenty years

Continue paying into Eu for 20 years.

Everyone would be happy.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Brexit, if and when it happens, will be so watered-down as to be meaningless.

The whole episode has become one giant clusterf*ck.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Barnier said yesterday that his job is to educate the British as to what it means to leave the EU.
I really do wonder of the commission have told him to put us in a position where we just walk away, and then conspire with the remainers in this country to throw the whole thing into complete chaos, so the referendum result either doesn't happen, or they get to have another one, as is standard EU practice when the electorate give the wrong answer. 
That would seem to be a high risk strategy, but they certainly don't seem to be carrying out serious, meaningful negotiations thus far. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

How about £100 billion divorce bill

Transitional period of say twenty years during which time we cannot agree any trade deals

Norway style trade system for those twenty years

Continue paying into Eu for 20 years.

Everyone The Establishment and Big Business would be happy. 

FTFY Snr! 

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

I doubt the EU as we know it will exist in 20 years. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

I read an article recently (I think it was either on Reuters or Bloomberg) about Singapore's experience of dealing with the EU and despite talks concluding in 2014 after 4 years, there was then a drawn out decision from the ECJ about whether the deal could be ratified soley by the EU Commission or whether it had to be ratified by the 38 Parliaments and Assemblies across the EU.

The ruling which came in May 2017 was that it had to be ratified by the various Parliaments and Assemblies.  We all know what happened with the Canadian deal (CETA) when Wallonia objected!  Who'd heard of Wallonia before this! 

The point of the article though was that apparently Singapore is considering renegotiating the deal with the EU as it is a less attractive proposition without the UK in the picture.  The journalist was speculating whether other countries with EU FTA's will do the same, as they might see the EU as weakened without Britain on board.

[Varche]

Barnier said yesterday that his job is to educate the British as to what it means to leave the EU.
I really do wonder of the commission have told him to put us in a position where we just walk away, and then conspire with the remainers in this country to throw the whole thing into complete chaos, so the referendum result either doesn't happen, or they get to have another one, as is standard EU practice when the electorate give the wrong answer. 
That would seem to be a high risk strategy, but they certainly don't seem to be carrying out serious, meaningful negotiations thus far. 

The minute the resultrs of the vote were announced I said that the establishment had made a terrible mistake in a) allowing the vote and b) it going the wrong way and that they would work tirelessly behind the scenes to ensure it never came to pass. I still stand by that

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

I don't doubt any of that for one minute. However, they also have to take into account what the consequences of that will be.
I know people who argued as strongly for remain as I did for leave, who have told me they will take to the streets and march side by side with leave voters if the vote is overturned by political skulduggery, because the point leavers made about it being an undemocratic empire will be irrefutably proven to them.
And Democracy is far more important than any of their arguments to remain.

[Varche]

Quite correct.

That will be the trick though , managing that through to its conclusion. I must admit I was surprised that May said she was staying on to fight another election. I expected her to be replaced in a (possibly this year) party conference leadership election with a softer candidate. Problem is, being blunt about it, there aren't any great politicians around nowadays and certainly not in the Tory party. Please don't say Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg. 

[Kevin Wood]

Quite correct.

That will be the trick though , managing that through to its conclusion. I must admit I was surprised that May said she was staying on to fight another election. I expected her to be replaced in a (possibly this year) party conference leadership election with a softer candidate. Problem is, being blunt about it, there aren't any great politicians around nowadays and certainly not in the Tory party. Please don't say Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg. 

Indeed.

.. and anyone with ambitions, competent or not, would do well to keep their powder dry until this current fustercluck is consigned to history and the flying excrement has all stuck to May.

[Rods2]

Reading about the negotiations to date and the EU constant undermining of the talks through leaks and discussions with the remoaner press, it dawned on me that the EU has no intention of agreeing any deal except on things that directly affect them like migrant rights and cross border health system payments. What the UK now needs to urgently start doing is planning for this by getting trade agreements agreed in principle and UK industry finding alternative non-EU food and vehicle suppliers. If we do this then not only the UK but these important EU sectors will also be facing their own March 2019 cliff edge which will force governments to act and the EU do a deal with the UK. The reality is that the EU commissions exists first and foremost for the EU Commission and the core founding EEC/EU states. All other countries like the PIIGS can be thrown under a bus as and when required. Our always growing trade inbalance (in their favour) is deliberate where the UK has consistently been discriminated and voted against. This includes ever shrinking quotas for fish and agricultural products. The sooner we are no longer the filling in this EU Commission sh*t sandwich the better.

I always knew this would end up as an EU and EU governments power struggle as the EU commission don't care how much it hits UK-EU trade as they don't face the ballot box and removal, but EU governments do and the result of this power struggle will decide a deal or no deal.

It shows again the dangers of powerful undemocratic institutions, that after much more damage (much has already been done with the PIIGS an example) before the EU finally collapses.