The government is making a good percentage of the cash conditional on securing a trade deal. We are committed to pay until March 2019 when we leave and also through until 2020 where we agreed the budget until them and will part of a transitional deal. The transitional deal makes sense as long as it doesn't stop us negotiating free trade deals with the rest of the world that are either signed the day after the transitional deal ends or it is already signed and starts then. To me leaving the EU in March 2019 makes sense along with a transitional deal which finalizes many powers and administration which are going to return to us from the EU. This way we should minimise disruption to industry and avoid a short sharp nasty recession. What we need to see is a breakdown of the figures.
As I keep saying where the EU is a protectionist block, stopping cheap goods from the rest of the world, especially those with high import duties and quotas is the EU's problem. We can use pre-registration of goods, ANPR at the border for tracking and random inspections at a customs centre well away from the border for goods imported into NI. People from Europe using the border to enter the UK is a problem, but so is people smuggling through the Channel ports. Soft border or hard border is going to do little to stop farmer Patrick's thriving import-export business where his barn straddles the border.
This smuggling helps the peace process as troubles are bad for business. Anyway, the EU is well used to their very porous Eastern European borders with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, which are used to smuggle money, firearms, cheap counterfeit cigarettes and alcohol, drugs (especially heroin from Afghanistan) and young girils, as slaves, for the West's sex trade.