Yes, my understanding is that he is trying to make a very weak divided Ukraine to keep the country neutered and under Russia's thumb. This does not just apply to Ukraine, but also looks like it is becoming a strategy for other satellite countries.
There is very little support in Ukraine for autonomous regions or the division of the country, with polls showing between 1 and 2% support for this. Even in the Donetsk, the most Russian looking Oblast there is only about 20% support for more local governance.
The terrorists that are attacking police stations are led and equipped by Russian special forces along with 5th column locals who have been recruited and trained by Russia since 2010 Yanukovych's election and with his agreement. Russia is trying to federalise the east to make it weak and divided and under their control with puppet regional governments. They are being supported to a degree, or through out and out self interest by local, east based, oligarchies that earn most of their money exporting to Russia.
The threat of a Russian invasion is just that and would be a last resort. 60%+ in all of the Eastern regions are ethnic Ukrainians and the majority of Ethnic Russians consider Ukraine their country and are against any divisions. Yes, they would win the war, but their would be pretty universal hostility to an army of occupation and they would over time lose the peace, like they did in Afghanistan.
The fact that the interim government is looking at a nationwide referendum on the future of Ukraine, would hopefully reduce all of this Russian nonsense, like it has with Gibraltar (Spain) and the Falkland Islands (mad woman Argentinian president), but being able to carry out that or the elections on the 25th May are looking more and more difficult. Again it is in Russia's interest to disrupt these as a newly elected government then has full legitimacy. This is why the interim government does not want to declare a state of emergency as it would mean postponing the elections.
Interesting that previous polls on Crimea joining Russia before their invasion, including one by Gallup were 37% and 40% and the real figure before any Putin adjustment, from a Russian source was 37%, not 95%!
The Russian controlled terrorists are trying to make the federalization of Ukraine into Autonomous regions, look like the only solution to western governments. William Hague and US politicians, especially the US UN ambassador who doesn't pull any punches, are I think and hope wise to this. But words are very different to physical actions on the ground and the US with its liberal controlled government is very weak with its responses. I think Reagan and Margaret Thatcher would have reacted much more robustly which is what you need to do with dictators, who given an inch will take a 1000 miles!
In pro-Russian demonstrations the protesters have been small in numbers of less than 1000. There was a very big pro-Ukraine rally in Kharkiv over the weekend.
If you want to know what is going on then this website is used by many newspapers to keep up to date:
http://www.interpretermag.com/A good analysis blog by a world renowned British expert on Russia and Eastern Europe, who was called in for a presentation and briefing of MPs on the Ukraine situation a few weeks ago is here:
http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/?s=the+shadow+of+MoscowLike all situations, I like to get information from as many sources as possible, so I can be as objective as possible with opinions, this is always more difficult when geopolitics are at the fore. Of course I have a pro-Ukrainian bias and proud of it.
Looking at the bigger picture Russia is now a big threat to world peace and needs to be contained. Dictators have a nasty habit of over playing their hands and starting major conflicts, which they then lose, but with much suffering, death and destruction in between.
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Topic: Ukraine (Read 1692 times)