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[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Very few manufacturers like to discuss the cost of battery replacement.

But after some digging I found the battery replacement on a hybrid Infiniti I was looking at was in excess of £20,000. I think TB is correct (apart from his views on Shami) and I would be very dubious about buying a 4 or 5 year old milk float.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Best info I can find is that Datsun offer a paltry 5 year warranty on the battery for the Leaf. Wear and tear can be up to 30%..... before they need to replace it.

[Nick W]

As I pointed out, I think EVs are the future, definitely for urban vehicles.  But using current Lithium tech batteries is not the future.  An onboard generator is the near/mid term solution, probably as fossil fuelled hybrid initially, fuel cells as the infrastructure becomes available and the greenies realise that batteries are not viable.

I think you're right about the urban vehicles, and occasional longer distance use. What is required is that current battery installations need to be better standardised; every manufacturer has their own approach to building the same cells into the structure of the vehicle and that isn't acceptable. It's like buying a £20 torch, and discovering that you can only use Acme Aardvark cells, rather than just AA ones like we do now. While the reality of batteries not lasting very long hasn't been as bad as predicted, it's still a big factor. But only 25 years ago we used to accept that a 100,000 mile engine was well past its best and would benefit from remedial work.


Nobody has yet produced the sort of vehicle that would benefit from being an EV, and that's small to medium vans for local delivery; the supermarket's fleets would be good candidates, especially if they added solar charging from the roofs of their large warehouses. I suspect that this is the intended use for the expensive London Taxi platform, even the basic body structure looks a Connect sized van.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

As I pointed out, I think EVs are the future, definitely for urban vehicles.  But using current Lithium tech batteries is not the future.  An onboard generator is the near/mid term solution, probably as fossil fuelled hybrid initially, fuel cells as the infrastructure becomes available and the greenies realise that batteries are not viable.

I think you're right about the urban vehicles, and occasional longer distance use. What is required is that current battery installations need to be better standardised; every manufacturer has their own approach to building the same cells into the structure of the vehicle and that isn't acceptable. It's like buying a £20 torch, and discovering that you can only use Acme Aardvark cells, rather than just AA ones like we do now. While the reality of batteries not lasting very long hasn't been as bad as predicted, it's still a big factor. But only 25 years ago we used to accept that a 100,000 mile engine was well past its best and would benefit from remedial work.


Nobody has yet produced the sort of vehicle that would benefit from being an EV, and that's small to medium vans for local delivery; the supermarket's fleets would be good candidates, especially if they added solar charging from the roofs of their large warehouses. I suspect that this is the intended use for the expensive London Taxi platform, even the basic body structure looks a Connect sized van.

As a lad, when dinosaurs still roamed the Earth, it was common to see ads for used cars that read something like.......Vauxhall Viva for sale 53000 miles only. Just had a rebore and decoke. Lovely car. 

[Viral_Jim]

Nothing like a doom and gloom post    

Ive been been speaking to people who actually run them. 

Either:
I believe you are being fed a whole load of BS. Or that 0.1% of people who have a miracle.
Or
These people use the car a few times a week, and get by on 3 or 4 slow charges a week.


I'm afraid the chemistry and physics are well known.  And as you know, I have close contacts into multiple automotive manufacturers.  And their internal tests unsurprisingly obey the rules of the science of the battery tech.


I know nobody will change your mind once your little wanter has kicked in, so I won't even begin to think I could ever change your views if it goes against what you want to hear, but I hate to see anyone lose/waste a significant sum of cash, moreso somebody I class as a friend.  So I simply point out the facts, so at least you go in with your eyes open, and potentially ask the right questions.

But you can call it doom and gloom if you like


As I pointed out, I think EVs are the future, definately for urban vehicles.  But using current Lithium tech batteries are not the future.  And onboard generator is the near/mid term solution, probably initially as fossil fuelled hybrid initially, fuel cells as the infrastructure becomes available and the greenies realise that batteries are not viable.

I find this really interesting, as it just doesn't stack with real people I know and their real cars, that I've really been driven in. I suppose they must be the 0.1%.

I'm keeping a reasonably close eye on how I treat the golf, from a purely interest perspective rather than a 'takibg care of the battery' angle. I'm nearly 1/6 of the way through my time with it and so far I haven't felt/noticed any battery loss.

My usage pattern is that about 50% of my "charging events" are on 50kw rapids, but of those, 75% are probably 15mins or less i.e. I chuck in 20-40miles while I go for a pee and pick up a coffee. The remaining 25% are at the far end of long journeys, usually while I'm in meetings where it goes up to 100%.

I always charge it to 100% of its available capacity where practical, and I regularly run it down to 3-5miles of range remaining. However, that doesn't tell you anything as the actual battery capacity, and the usable capacity are not the same thing. Maybe the cars have greater capacity than is allowed to the user, in order to hide the degredation, but it doesn't seem practical from a cost perspective. Also, thermal management must play a part, which laptops and phones don't have in their batteries.

It'll interesting to see what capacity I'm left with after 75k miles.

[tunnie]

Be really good to see how you get on in next 10-20k which won’t be long, looking at your mile history.

Second hand ones with 10-15k on the clock are reasonable money.

What’s yours on now?

[Viral_Jim]

Be really good to see how you get on in next 10-20k which won’t be long, looking at your mile history.

Second hand ones with 10-15k on the clock are reasonable money.

What’s yours on now?

12,202 miles right now. And I'm pretty sure I took delivery on 12th March.  It's on a 25k p.a. lease and I think I'll be fine, the big thing is I've not really had any holiday since I got it and it's basically all commuting miles.

To give you an idea of my driving style, the fronts are just starting to tickle the wear bars 

[Varche]

As I pointed out, I think EVs are the future, definitely for urban vehicles.  But using current Lithium tech batteries is not the future.  An onboard generator is the near/mid term solution, probably as fossil fuelled hybrid initially, fuel cells as the infrastructure becomes available and the greenies realise that batteries are not viable.

I think you're right about the urban vehicles, and occasional longer distance use. What is required is that current battery installations need to be better standardised; every manufacturer has their own approach to building the same cells into the structure of the vehicle and that isn't acceptable. It's like buying a £20 torch, and discovering that you can only use Acme Aardvark cells, rather than just AA ones like we do now. While the reality of batteries not lasting very long hasn't been as bad as predicted, it's still a big factor. But only 25 years ago we used to accept that a 100,000 mile engine was well past its best and would benefit from remedial work.


Nobody has yet produced the sort of vehicle that would benefit from being an EV, and that's small to medium vans for local delivery; the supermarket's fleets would be good candidates, especially if they added solar charging from the roofs of their large warehouses. I suspect that this is the intended use for the expensive London Taxi platform, even the basic body structure looks a Connect sized van.

Agreed. I always expected one option for motorists would be to call at a service station and pay for a standard replacement cassette battery that is charged up on an exchange basis so you could do long journeys. Service stations could be equipped with solar panel arrays and a wind turbine.

We can only have a max of 5.5kw supply but a solar panel array on our garage would I suspect reliably provide 3kw @ 300 days a year. We might move in a couple of years so maybe by then options would be more obvious.

[Nick W]

Agreed. I always expected one option for motorists would be to call at a service station and pay for a standard replacement cassette battery that is charged up on an exchange basis so you could do long journeys. Service stations could be equipped with solar panel arrays and a wind turbine.

That's not really practical, you need a large number of cells to make a battery big enough to power a car so replacing them like you pump fuel into a tank is unlikely to work. Then there's the value of the things, they're a large part of the value of the car and just swapping them is going to cause all sorts of blame when something does go wrong.

[LC0112G]

Doctor, I think I must be ill. I've just read two posts by TheBoy which I 100% agree with. Help Me.

[Rods2]

TB is right & this advice is exactly the same for all lithium battery based devices including mobile phones. There are three types of batteries unprotected two terminal ones, which have a real risk of fire & explosion & two or three terminal protected ones where two terminal are internally regulated & externally regulated ones use the third terminal to get the charger to regulate it, which is used to control the charging rate and temperature.to stop them bursting into flames & destroying themselves & their surroundings. Once a cell is out of the safe specification, the regulation system will stop that cell from being charged to stop any fire & explosion risk. Lithium battery capacity is affected by temperature & like all batteries there will be ~1% per day self-discharge rate. Apparently hydrogen powered vehicles have a much higher natural fuel evaporation rate compared to fossil fueled cars where the atoms are much smaller & more difficult to contain.

About 25% of an EV car's battery pack is each cell's electronics to keep them safe. Like in all areas better lighter electronic protection/regulation systems are happening with many new patents in this area so I expect the 25% weight to drop as better designs are introduced, but batteries are always going to be at a big disadvantage where there energy density is much, much lower than fossil fuels & that is unlikely to ever change by much, where there have only been incremental improvements over the last 100 years of battery development.

In between developing an unenclosed nuclear powered cruise missile that has just blown up killing 7 and giving Eastern Europe a measurable radiation cloud, maybe next week Putin will decide that unenclosed nuclear cars for the masses is the future, what could possibly go wrong. Such small nuclear reactors have to be unenclosed to make the weight viable if you are putting them in missiles. The US worked on this in the 1960s before deciding it wasn't a good idea.

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/08/nuclear-powered-cruise-missiles-are-terrible-idea-russias-test-explosion-shows-why/159189/?oref=d-river

I have recently had this problem on a USB charged lithium battery torch where the discharge rapidly went from reasonable capacity to about 10% capacity in about 10 charge cycles until it wouldn't charge charge at all. A lesson I've now learn't is when you buy a rechargeable lithium LED torch make sure the battery is replacable. Me being me after several attempts at taking it apart I decided that there must be a battery compartment threaded access on the cylindrical aluminium body & the use of two pairs of stilsons on it, I found the locktighted joint. It contains a bespoke 3 terminal design AA sized battery & where I  haven't been able to find a replacement I've disconnected the internal USB charger & will charge the internally protected replacement using an external charger on it. There are also several times of positive terminal with button head & flat head being the most common.

[Viral_Jim]

Agreed. I always expected one option for motorists would be to call at a service station and pay for a standard replacement cassette battery that is charged up on an exchange basis so you could do long journeys. Service stations could be equipped with solar panel arrays and a wind turbine.

That's not really practical, you need a large number of cells to make a battery big enough to power a car so replacing them like you pump fuel into a tank is unlikely to work. Then there's the value of the things, they're a large part of the value of the car and just swapping them is going to cause all sorts of blame when something does go wrong.

And not necessary really. 150kw CCS chargers are being rolled out now. Add that to a 200 mile EV and it means you drive for 3-3.5hrs (mostly it's tough to average 65mph over any journey) you then stop for 15-20mins and you can get going again. This is the reality of the Tesla model 3,S and X and it's superchargers which are already 125-140kw with 250kw units on the way. This tech will trickle out into other manufacturers soon enough (iirc the Porsche Taycan will allegedly take 350kw).

Of course, if the physics and chemistry is truly settled and as simple as faster charge = battery death, I assume pushing 350kw into a battery will kill it in a matter of months....

The 8yr, 100k mile, 70% capacity warranty will surely take a battering...

[Rods2]

Agreed. I always expected one option for motorists would be to call at a service station and pay for a standard replacement cassette battery that is charged up on an exchange basis so you could do long journeys. Service stations could be equipped with solar panel arrays and a wind turbine.

That's not really practical, you need a large number of cells to make a battery big enough to power a car so replacing them like you pump fuel into a tank is unlikely to work. Then there's the value of the things, they're a large part of the value of the car and just swapping them is going to cause all sorts of blame when something does go wrong.

And not necessary really. 150kw CCS chargers are being rolled out now. Add that to a 200 mile EV and it means you drive for 3-3.5hrs (mostly it's tough to average 65mph over any journey) you then stop for 15-20mins and you can get going again. This is the reality of the Tesla model 3,S and X and it's superchargers which are already 125-140kw with 250kw units on the way. This tech will trickle out into other manufacturers soon enough (iirc the Porsche Taycan will allegedly take 350kw).

Of course, if the physics and chemistry is truly settled and as simple as faster charge = battery death, I assume pushing 350kw into a battery will kill it in a matter of months....

The 8yr, 100k mile, 70% capacity warranty will surely take a battering...

That is an area where big improvements are being made & real world use instead of theoretical development testing cycles will give an idea or what ideal v real lifetimes are. One thing with fast charging is the voltage & hence current increase & charging efficiency goes down where more heat is generated & this will stress the batteries more. Again real v actual will only be known over time, but if you can charge the batteries most of the time while they are still over 50% and use slow charging most of the time then you can expect the batteries to last much longer. If you are on a 3yr contract as long as they last this duration, do you care if they don't for an owner down the line? I'm not sure it would overly bother me where I've paid a new car premium for the convenience & reliability while I owned it & if somebody buys secondhand then that is there problem. How long before there is a Terry thread on: How do I replace the batteries in my 200k mile very cheap ev?

[Rods2]

As an aside where there is a big car market for steal to order & break for spares, especially with them ending up in the poorer parts of Europe & Africa. How long before EVs are stolen to order for their batteries?

[aaronjb]

How long before EVs are stolen to order for their batteries?

Given the average intelligence of a thieving knuckle dragger, and the stored potential in the battery packs, that should make for impressive fireworks (almost as impressive as when they try to steal copper out of a sub-station)..