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[Rods2]

Unlike in most of Europe the Brexit safety valve has mean't we have carried on voting for our hard-left party Labour & our centre-left party the Conservatives rather that turn to hard left & right extremes with them getting about 80% of the votes in the 2017 GE. Both promised to respect the EUref result by taking us out of the EU & both have failed to do so which has badly damaged our democracy & our world standing. The Conservative's under Cameron & May both tracked the Tory party left chasing Labour & LibDem votes & gave us the referendum to neuter UKIP & the very big danger that they posed to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE by promising an EU referendum. Cameron was expecting another hung-parliament coalition with the LibDems who would stop the EUref. Quelle Horreur the Conservatives won with a majority & had no choice after his Lisbon Treaty Ref. cop out which did much damage at the time to gave us the referendum.

Osborne thought the referendum was a stupid idea & was against but went along with his PM pal, so it happened & Cameron fell on his sword. The whole referendum story is covered very well by The Sunday Times political editor Tim Shipman in his book "All Out War" which I highly recommend & his followup book on Brexit which covers up to & including her 2017 GE "Fall OUt" which I've got but haven't read yet. The positioning of the electorate on a Gaussian curve mean't the all the 3 main parties were chasing the the same left of centre votes as described in detail in the link below:

https://countrysquire.co.uk/2019/03/29/post-brexit-tory-doom/

This mean't that with Farage leaving UKIP had the right vote to themselves, but they have stupidly repositioned themselves as a far right party & invited the EDL to join their party. This means they have now positioned themselves as the far right of the curve which has a very low glass ceiling, so they will always be a minor kook right party. May, Corbyn & their MPs betrayal of Brexit has created a level of voter anger I never seen before in this country, even the poll tax caused no where near as much. The centre right was vacant again at Farage made a very good speech at the Leave Means Leave Parliament Square protest on how he was reentering politics, where Brexi had been betrayed & he was going to put the fear of god up the current MPs with his political revolution, with a new centre-right party which was finally launched last week very successfully with conferences & videos of the events. Since The Brexit Party website went live 3 weeks or so a go 100k+ have registered an interest, including me, & they have raised of £750k in small donation of up to £500. Farage told us he had put a bet of £1000 at 3-1 that he wins the 23rd May Euro elections with the most votes. After the launch last weekend they polled at 15% & UKIP at 14%. Today the latest YouGov poll gave us these voting intentions:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10% (TB Party)
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6% (shorely this party of Allen & Sozzbry has missed a C out 'CHUCK')

I wouldn't be surprised to see BREX top 30% before 23rd May. So the UK political realignment begins & although you can never right off our most successful party The Tories, I'm not convinced they will react in time to become a minor party at best & extinct at worst. I think Cameron's boosting of CCHQ power over local associations, where they parachuted in approved lists of candidates over local selection has been a disaster, where this is where many of the left-wing progressive, wet, remain candidates that have caused so many problems have come from. They are currently mooting Hammond or Rudderless as uniting PMs or a Boris/Rudd dream ticket, but before they can even think of this, they have got to break the Limpet like grip of that waste of good oxygen, PM May has on this office.

What is certain the 2 incumbent CON/LAB party grip on the UK political scene for the last 100 years is now over & we are entering a new era. May's threat of vote for us is now meaningless, because there is The Brexit Party alternative & where many, after Mays Brexit talks, now view Corbyn as May's deputy PM.

[Omegatoy]

nicely summed up Rod,

the Brexit party rise is scaring the mainstream political pratts to death!
Eu is dreading having Nigel back!

[Sir Tigger KC]

Why the Tories think that Amber Dudd is any sort of answer to their problems is totally beyond me and just shows that the Conservatives have totally lost all direction. 

[Varche]

Interesting.

Of course how people vote in Euro elections ( to show the EU who is boss for ten minutes) and how they would vote to hand the running of the UK are different scenarios. When I lived in the UK, I voted Lib Dems in the local elections. They got good things done and were the only party to be seen. I wouldn't ever have voted for them in the national elections.

There are a lot of damaged goods in politics. Corbyn, the Brexit crew , May, Farage, UKIP.  It will be interesting to see if any good leaders surface for people to get behind.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Over on the remain sites, they're squabbling about who they should vote for in the euro elections to get as many remainy MEP's as possible. 

The 'remain' vote has a possible four way split between the Greens, LibDems, CHUKa, and Labour.   

[Doctor Gollum]

Over on the remain sites, they're squabbling about who they should vote for in the euro elections to get as many remainy MEP's as possible. 

The 'remain' vote has a possible four way split between the Greens, LibDems, CHUKa, and Labour. 

Which don't add up to a whole hill of beans. Fortunately 

[BazaJT]

It's not before time that UK politics got a shake up.For too long the Tories and Labour have had it all their own way and become complacent about their situation.

[Varche]

We can but hope that whatever new parties that crawl out of this mess do not fall into the trap of ignoring the electorate that vote for them.

[Rods2]

Tories seem to be in full meltdown mode today where CCHQ have put forward their hard remainers as MEP candidates. What could ever go wrong?

The latest Comres poll, if you were voting in a GE tomorrow who would you vote for:

CON: 23%
BREX: 14%

I think it has dawned on many Tory MPs today what 23% means for their reelection chances. A lot of rumours on up to 50 Brexit MPs may defect from the Tories to The Brexit Party & if that happens May has not got a viable government unless she does a deal with them with the price of her standing down & no deal Brexit happens. Clueless May has only got herself to  blame for this situation. Can't see any changes happening before Easter, but we certaining are living in interesting times.