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Author Topic: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?  (Read 5312 times)

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Zirfeld

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Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« on: 13 October 2017, 16:50:19 »

I observed weather over many many years. But something like that I never saw before on the GFS (Global Forecast System)

The tropical storm Orphelia is far southwest of the Azores in the moment. Latest forecast shows that Orphelia will strength to a category 2 hurricane with northeast routing.

The GFS model is counting that Orphelia will reach northwest Ireland Monday afternoon  :o 

Rolf
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LC0112G

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #1 on: 13 October 2017, 17:04:04 »

Probably. Was hoping it was headed for the Alps for some early snow, but seems not.

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Zirfeld

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #2 on: 13 October 2017, 17:20:51 »

For my side of Europe (southwest Germany) Orphelia will bring the last summer days in 2017. 25°C (maybe more?) are on the radar. Orphelia will transport a subtropical airflow directly into the Rhine valley.

Rolf
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Lizzie Zoom

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #3 on: 13 October 2017, 17:52:28 »

For my side of Europe (southwest Germany) Orphelia will bring the last summer days in 2017. 25°C (maybe more?) are on the radar. Orphelia will transport a subtropical airflow directly into the Rhine valley.

Rolf

In the UK the forecasters are starting to predict that us in the South of England could see temperatures of 21C plus.

I do hope that comes true, but also hope the North does not get hit too much by the hurricane ;)
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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #4 on: 13 October 2017, 18:58:23 »

The forecasters are now predicting 25c for next Monday for the Southern half of Britain :y :y
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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #5 on: 13 October 2017, 19:44:41 »

And I have 5 days off work from Monday. Lavvly jubbly.  8)
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Olympia5776

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #6 on: 13 October 2017, 20:34:14 »

It's trajectory seems to be heading for my front door .
Don't like severe storms , roll on Tuesday.
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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #7 on: 13 October 2017, 22:55:34 »

Cars in the garage and batten down the hatches Don.  :y
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #8 on: 14 October 2017, 02:13:05 »

If Cumbre Vieja goes up tomorrow, I probably wouldn't bother worrying about a bit of wind and rain ::)
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Zirfeld

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #9 on: 14 October 2017, 20:48:32 »

Orphelia is now "upgraded" to a major hurricane categorie 3. That never happens so far north since beginning of weather observations. Average wind speed is 180 km/h, peek wind speed is 220 km/h.  :o

I hope Orphelia will loose her tropical energy somewhere south of Ireland. But there is another phenomen. She will get in direct contact with the polar jet. Now one knows really what will happen....
« Last Edit: 14 October 2017, 21:03:20 by Zirfeld »
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Olympia5776

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #10 on: 14 October 2017, 21:19:11 »

Orphelia is now "upgraded" to a major hurricane categorie 3. That never happens so far north since beginning of weather observations. Average wind speed is 180 km/h, peek wind speed is 220 km/h.  :o

I hope Orphelia will loose her tropical energy somewhere south of Ireland. But there is another phenomen. She will get in direct contact with the polar jet. Now one knows really what will happen....

You're an awfully  cheery chap.........
« Last Edit: 14 October 2017, 21:20:55 by Olympia5776 »
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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #11 on: 14 October 2017, 22:21:33 »

I'm booked on a flight from Edinburgh to Bristol on Monday morning. The flight path is roughly an arc from. Edinburgh to Liverpool, out into the Irish Sea, back across South Wales and across the Bristol Channel into Bristol Airport.  :(

What can possibly go wrong?  ::)  ;D
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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #12 on: 15 October 2017, 09:34:18 »

I'm booked on a flight from Edinburgh to Bristol on Monday morning. The flight path is roughly an arc from. Edinburgh to Liverpool, out into the Irish Sea, back across South Wales and across the Bristol Channel into Bristol Airport.  :(

What can possibly go wrong?  ::)  ;D
I was going to say “Been nice knowing you, can I have your cars?” But......nah......leave them to someone else.  ;D
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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #13 on: 15 October 2017, 09:53:19 »

Orphelia is now "upgraded" to a major hurricane categorie 3. That never happens so far north since beginning of weather observations. Average wind speed is 180 km/h, peek wind speed is 220 km/h.  :o

I hope Orphelia will loose her tropical energy somewhere south of Ireland. But there is another phenomen. She will get in direct contact with the polar jet. Now one knows really what will happen....

You're an awfully  cheery chap.........
Midday tomorrow be the worst of it...  http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-NE_atlantic-u10-
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Zirfeld

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Re: Will Hurricane Orphelia hit Ireland?
« Reply #14 on: 15 October 2017, 15:53:39 »

Hi Doc

Orphelia is not a normal hurricane

Normal hurricanes get their energy from warm water below. If warm water is missing, they die out. Orphelia will find another source of energy. She will cross the polarjet. The jet devides suptropical conditions in the south from suppolar conditions in the north.

Hurricanes generally are filled with warm wet air, typically -10...0°C in 500 hPa (5000 m). North of the jet Orphelia will find -25°C . So the warm air wet will rise like a giant balloon into the cold air and Orphelia will convert to a "normal" Atlantic cyclone.

In North America this process will last a few days, Orphelia will do it in a few minutes. It looks more than a giant thunderstorm than a cyclone conversion. I fear about local excessive rainfall and strong downbusting winds.

Monday morning the polarjet is located exactly over Ireland southwest to northeast. Tropical Orphelia will meet polar conditions near the southwest coast. I hope over sea. Orphelia has nne direction, the jet runs sw to ne.

But no one exactly knows what will happen, because such an event was never observed in detail before.

Rolf
« Last Edit: 15 October 2017, 16:11:15 by Zirfeld »
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