Totally disagree as sanctions are working a well as can be expected, hence Putin barring from standing all opposition candidates apart from the 'official opposition' Patsy and the limited appeal of the Communist candidate. To still make himself look popular, expect vote stuffing on an epic scale in March.
You make the same mistake as many people thinking sanctions are a sprint. They were imposed last week and nothing has changed this week, so they can't be working. It is a long term marathon like causing the fall of the Soviet Union which Reagan finally brought about and was a 25 year US project! Putin's backup state fund has run out and has had to appropriate the reserve state pension fund to cover state deficits that is on target to run out in 2019. Gazprom used to sell gas at a premium where supply and demand were closely matched, but due to a glut from US fracking and the US law change to allow exports they are now the cheapest major supplier as they try to regain market share. After a 2 year recession and rising state deficit they are on target to obtain 1-2% GDP growth this year, but with more sanctions due from the US in 2018 this is not guaranteed.
It is very unlikely that Russia will ever be a democracy in our lifetimes as for a revolution to succeed in any meaningful way the old state apparatus has to be replaced whereas post-1991 the state security system is still essentially the same as during Soviet times and has actually been considerably increased and made more intrusive by Putin. You can expect him to probably stand down in 2024, but he will name his successor like Yeltsin named Putin on the basis of guaranteed legal immunity.
No, as I recognise that in fact they take an eternity to work and that is the problem with them.
In modern history sanctions, or blockades, have not stopped the element that they were meant to. During the First World War the Royal Navy had a blockade functioning in 1914 on Germany, but Germany continued to wage war as they found a few ways around what the British were trying to achieve. It was only in late 1916 that the German populous started to really suffer from great starvation, but the troops continued to be well fed. Post the Armistice of 1918 the Royal Navy continued their blockade under after the Versailles Treaty of 1919. But overall the German war effort was not affected by the sanctions until it was all too late.
During WW2 the Germans tried, almost very successfully, to stop essential supplies to Great Britain by sending Atlantic conveys to the bottom of the sea, but the British fought back. It was a close run thing, as Churchill would later publicly recall, but still WW2 went on to the Allied victory.
The USA implemented sanctions on Cuba in 1961/62, and they have continued to date. Even the Obama policy of winding back these sanctions has been stopped by Trump, with new harsher measures being implemented. There is no doubt the populous of Cuba has suffered over the decades, and increasingly so over the last 30 years, but the Cuban Communist regime continues on it's merry way with no sign yet of any capitulation, despite the demise of Castro in 2016.
China, Iran, and of course recently North Korea are also countries that have had sanctions over the decades applied to them, but apart from the dreadful effects on their people, the political status quo has survived. This is the same with Russia; a country that is large enough and has the military and political clout to get around any sanctions that would effect Putin and his political establishment. No, once more it will be the people of Russia that will suffer whilst Putin does what he wants, and may well create a war situation as he did in the Crimea and Ukraine
As you can tell me Rod, Putin has to date: Intervened in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea.
Invaded Georgia and the Caucasus.
Intervened in Moldova, Baltic states and Scandinavia
Once more, sanctions will be so slow as to be virtually ineffective with a leader like Putin, as they would have been against Hitler, as these monsters always find ways around them and will achieve their political and/or military objectives until war stops them.
International Law, as most of us know, is toothless and cannot stop anything without the key military player in NATO, the USA, becoming involved. But now I would not guarantee the USA under "Put America First" Trump will want to involve themselves in any European conflict.
No, with sanctions I do not hold my breath.........