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General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 15 March 2020, 17:33:39 »
What has come clear today is that the plan is to get over 70's & anybody with chronic pre-existing health conditions that makes them vulnerable to Covid-19 to self-isolate with at least a 12 week lockdown & all under 50's carrying on as normal, schools staying open etc, so the majority get it over the next 3 months to build up herd immunity. The 50-69 age group is a grey area with I suspect most of the hospital admissions, ICU critical cases & deaths being due to chronic health conditions.
This approach implies taking a short term massive 3-6 month economic hit, that it doesn't mutate further from the current S & L types. As more people have had it then there life can return to normal, but for travel they may need to have an antibody test to prove they've had it with a stamp put in their passport? What is going to get hit very hard over the next 3-6 months hardest are:
1. Travel, tourism, hotel & hospitality industries, Virgin asking for the UK passenger airlines getting loans to the tune of £5-7.5bn from the government which will be paid back once they recover. Where the majority of my work is for an insurance broker that specializes in travel insurance, they & I are going to have to take a hit here. Fortunately, I've got enough in my rainy day fund to see me through to about September. But as a type 2 diabetic I will be part of this isolating lockdown for 3 months. It is going to be very tough on the many who are employed on zero hours contracts where many will be working zero hours.
2. Entertainment, cafes & restaurants will be second heaviest hit industry.
3. Any non-essential retailer or business as people will be pulling their belts-in.
4. Property market as this is always hit hard in times of uncertainty.
But it will be a limited time hit in the UK where I suspect in lockdown countries it will be prolonged with multiple peaks, which if it follows the 1918 Spanish flu profile, where a lowesh summer peak, a quiet autumn was followed by really gruesome massive 2nd winter peak which the UK government wants to avoid with Covid-19.
The Italian statistics show that there have no deaths in under 30's, 2 in the under 50s, 10 in the 50-59 age range, 60 in the 60-69's, 274 in the 70-79's, 355 in the 80-89's and 75 in the over 90's. The ICU figures follow a similar profile.
This profile is very different from the Chinese one for two reasons 50%+ of Chinese men smoke, but even more telling is the long term lung damage caused by their chronic air pollution where their air quality is one of the worst on earth.
As for the UK Government's approach I personally think they have played it very, very well to date where our infection rates have been below those of Italy, France, Germany & Spain by about 2 weeks, which has bought more statistics & more insight into what will hopefully be a best outcome strategy, where we have all got to responsibly play our part.
If this strategy works hopefully it will be adopted by other countries, so the world can get back to normal over the next 6 to 12 months.
China needs to now really act over the eating of raw wild animals where by tradition eating these 'delicacies' is considered 'healthier', including live baby mice, bats, dogs etc. than domesticated animal's cooked meat. A Chinese university study published in March 2019, where a Chinese coronavirus caused SARS found that Chinese bats carry a wide range of them just waiting to jump species.
This approach implies taking a short term massive 3-6 month economic hit, that it doesn't mutate further from the current S & L types. As more people have had it then there life can return to normal, but for travel they may need to have an antibody test to prove they've had it with a stamp put in their passport? What is going to get hit very hard over the next 3-6 months hardest are:
1. Travel, tourism, hotel & hospitality industries, Virgin asking for the UK passenger airlines getting loans to the tune of £5-7.5bn from the government which will be paid back once they recover. Where the majority of my work is for an insurance broker that specializes in travel insurance, they & I are going to have to take a hit here. Fortunately, I've got enough in my rainy day fund to see me through to about September. But as a type 2 diabetic I will be part of this isolating lockdown for 3 months. It is going to be very tough on the many who are employed on zero hours contracts where many will be working zero hours.
2. Entertainment, cafes & restaurants will be second heaviest hit industry.
3. Any non-essential retailer or business as people will be pulling their belts-in.
4. Property market as this is always hit hard in times of uncertainty.
But it will be a limited time hit in the UK where I suspect in lockdown countries it will be prolonged with multiple peaks, which if it follows the 1918 Spanish flu profile, where a lowesh summer peak, a quiet autumn was followed by really gruesome massive 2nd winter peak which the UK government wants to avoid with Covid-19.
The Italian statistics show that there have no deaths in under 30's, 2 in the under 50s, 10 in the 50-59 age range, 60 in the 60-69's, 274 in the 70-79's, 355 in the 80-89's and 75 in the over 90's. The ICU figures follow a similar profile.
This profile is very different from the Chinese one for two reasons 50%+ of Chinese men smoke, but even more telling is the long term lung damage caused by their chronic air pollution where their air quality is one of the worst on earth.
As for the UK Government's approach I personally think they have played it very, very well to date where our infection rates have been below those of Italy, France, Germany & Spain by about 2 weeks, which has bought more statistics & more insight into what will hopefully be a best outcome strategy, where we have all got to responsibly play our part.
If this strategy works hopefully it will be adopted by other countries, so the world can get back to normal over the next 6 to 12 months.
China needs to now really act over the eating of raw wild animals where by tradition eating these 'delicacies' is considered 'healthier', including live baby mice, bats, dogs etc. than domesticated animal's cooked meat. A Chinese university study published in March 2019, where a Chinese coronavirus caused SARS found that Chinese bats carry a wide range of them just waiting to jump species.
but still 7% of US GDP as an opening shot to support US banks & corporate America.
Boom! Decisive action! 
