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Author Topic: Come on Arlene!  (Read 1142 times)

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Varche

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #30 on: 05 December 2017, 14:09:56 »

We WILL be leaving........and you will not be repatriated, Señor.  :)

I'm not quite sure what the definition of 'leaving the EU' is. :-\

Maybe we'll have a 'Leave Lite' brexit. One where we leave (sort of) but pay for access to the single market as well as giving 50 billion to the EU.

'Leave Lite' will probably mean we are still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ and have some notional control over movement of people but no absolute power to stop 'dark foreign johnnies' coming to the UK.

It's a total clusterf*ck. :-\

For the definition of that you will need to ask Jeremey Corbyn. He will be the one at the helm after May's government collapses. What you have just described sounds suspiciously like the outcome Cameron SHOULD have come back with had the EU seen sense (some hope of that...) 
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STEMO

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #31 on: 05 December 2017, 15:06:21 »

We WILL be leaving........and you will not be repatriated, Señor.  :)

Perhaps we could send a fleet of Omegas for El Varche!  :)
Could do. A couple of them might even get as far as Calais.
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #32 on: 05 December 2017, 17:18:38 »

The answer to the Irish border lies in a free trade agreement, which apparently the EU don't want
Not so long as we have holes up our arses will we get a free trade agreement with the EU.  Anyone who ever suggested that this tiny, insignificant island ever would has other agendas to push, or is plain deranged.

We voted not to have a free trade relationship, and must now pay the consequences.
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #33 on: 05 December 2017, 18:12:49 »

So.....apart from a hard border, which Eire would veto.....what’s the answer? TM is between a rock and hard place on this one and, whatever turns out to be the solution, it’s always going to be an unworkable compromise.

Exactly right :y :y

All too many armchair critics have never had the experience of "negotiating" in either politics or business, but still think they are qualified to judge.

Negotiating means exactly that; starting off at each party's set position then discussing, considering, arguing, compromising, presenting the believed answer, only for a "NO" to be uttered and then the process starts again.  That is when there is just two or three parties involved, let alone 27 sets of countries politicians working on their own agenda's to reach their particular objective!

To get the answers, whatever they may be, will take time. ;)
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #34 on: 05 December 2017, 18:16:59 »

The answer to the Irish border lies in a free trade agreement, which apparently the EU don't want
Not so long as we have holes up our arses will we get a free trade agreement with the EU.  Anyone who ever suggested that this tiny, insignificant island ever would has other agendas to push, or is plain deranged.

We voted not to have a free trade relationship, and must now pay the consequences.

We don't have a free trade agreement with the EU as last year it cost us £13 billion to belong (less whatever they decide to spend in the UK) and this would have only increased.  Based on current growth rates our EU bill was projected to be £17 billion by 2022 after the rebate.  Which had we voted to remain, it's extremely doubtful whether we would have been able to have retained the rebate in the next round of EU budget talks.  ;)
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Kevin Wood

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #35 on: 05 December 2017, 20:07:15 »

We don't have a free trade agreement with the EU as last year it cost us £13 billion to belong (less whatever they decide to spend in the UK) and this would have only increased.  Based on current growth rates our EU bill was projected to be £17 billion by 2022 after the rebate.  Which had we voted to remain, it's extremely doubtful whether we would have been able to have retained the rebate in the next round of EU budget talks.  ;)

Yes, and it was only going to be an "ever increasing" bill along with "ever closer" union as the EU took over more and more responsibilities. It was always going to end in tears one way or the other. If this is how that plays out, so be it. The tories just turned out to be the muppets who blinked first and offered a completely unworkable exit from it all. ;D
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LC0112G

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #36 on: 05 December 2017, 21:48:19 »

The answer to the Irish border lies in a free trade agreement, which apparently the EU don't want
Not so long as we have holes up our arses will we get a free trade agreement with the EU.  Anyone who ever suggested that this tiny, insignificant island ever would has other agendas to push, or is plain deranged.

We voted not to have a free trade relationship, and must now pay the consequences.

We don't have a free trade agreement with the EU as last year it cost us £13 billion to belong (less whatever they decide to spend in the UK) and this would have only increased.

UK Nett contributions to the EU were around £9bn. For that we got tariff and tax "free" exports of around £240bn to other EU countries ( fact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/) If you treat all the £9bn as a payment for tariff "free" trade then it represents a 3.75% rate.

Assuming we can somehow agree a post Brexit tariff deal with the EU, how much do you think it's going to cost? I suspect it'll be a lot more than 9bn a year. WTO terms will be 10% on cars and a lot more on most agricultural stuff. And since much of the UK's exports are actually financial services which aren't covered by WTO it's impossible to know how much that could cost.

Still, the British public know what they're doing - what could possibly go wrong ::)
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STEMO

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #37 on: 05 December 2017, 22:06:44 »

The answer to the Irish border lies in a free trade agreement, which apparently the EU don't want
Not so long as we have holes up our arses will we get a free trade agreement with the EU.  Anyone who ever suggested that this tiny, insignificant island ever would has other agendas to push, or is plain deranged.

We voted not to have a free trade relationship, and must now pay the consequences.

We don't have a free trade agreement with the EU as last year it cost us £13 billion to belong (less whatever they decide to spend in the UK) and this would have only increased.

UK Nett contributions to the EU were around £9bn. For that we got tariff and tax "free" exports of around £240bn to other EU countries ( fact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/) If you treat all the £9bn as a payment for tariff "free" trade then it represents a 3.75% rate.

Assuming we can somehow agree a post Brexit tariff deal with the EU, how much do you think it's going to cost? I suspect it'll be a lot more than 9bn a year. WTO terms will be 10% on cars and a lot more on most agricultural stuff. And since much of the UK's exports are actually financial services which aren't covered by WTO it's impossible to know how much that could cost.

Still, the British public know what they're doing - what could possibly go wrong ::)
I don’t think the British public gave any of this even a passing thought. It was mostly about immigration and human rights and independence from the ECJ and..well.....just xenophobia really.
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Varche

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #38 on: 05 December 2017, 23:24:38 »

And they didn't want to become a province of a federal Europe.

WTO, 10%. Are you saying that the cars and agricultural products we sell to Europe will be 10% more. ..?  The answer might be to knock off 10% before adding the 10% very approx.

Does it work the other way round? E.g. will BMW s be 10% more and will Spanish tomotoes be 10% more?
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LC0112G

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #39 on: 06 December 2017, 01:33:50 »

The answer might be to knock off 10% before adding the 10% very approx.

You mean the producer of the goods has to make a 10% cut in the price they sell for, so that the EU can then mark the price up by 10% again? Not sure many manufacturers will be keen on that - depends on the profit margins but if they ain't making 10% profit to start with then they won't be able to cut their export price by 10%.

WTO, 10%. Are you saying that the cars and agricultural products we sell to Europe will be 10% more. ..?

Does it work the other way round? E.g. will BMW s be 10% more and will Spanish tomotoes be 10% more?

Cars are 10% more, so yes a car built in the UK will cost 10% more in mainland Europe after Brexit. And a car built in mainland Europe will cost 10% more in the UK after Brexit.

Agricultral products have much higher tariffs. Skimmed Milk is 74%, Butter 63%, Wheat 53%, Cheese 43%, Frozen Beef 160%.

Still, since it appears most farmers voted for Brexit then I assume they realise that it may have some effect on their exports, so won't be complaining too loudly if it bites them  ::)
« Last Edit: 06 December 2017, 01:39:18 by LC0112G »
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #40 on: 06 December 2017, 10:01:40 »

Still, since it appears most farmers voted for Brexit then I assume they realise that it may have some effect on their exports, so won't be complaining too loudly if it bites them  ::)

The biggest surprise for me is Welsh farmers voting for it, that lot have been on the EU gravy train for years, grants for fencing, sheds, farm machinery (including pick-ups, quads etc.). If they imagine they'll be getting the same share of the EU money "saved" by westminster, I suspect they're in for a rude awakening.  ::)
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LC0112G

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #41 on: 06 December 2017, 10:40:36 »

Still, since it appears most farmers voted for Brexit then I assume they realise that it may have some effect on their exports, so won't be complaining too loudly if it bites them  ::)

The biggest surprise for me is Welsh farmers voting for it, that lot have been on the EU gravy train for years, grants for fencing, sheds, farm machinery (including pick-ups, quads etc.). If they imagine they'll be getting the same share of the EU money "saved" by westminster, I suspect they're in for a rude awakening.  ::)

Indeed. And Milk farmers have been complaining for years about the price they are paid for their milk. All this talk about cheaper imports from outside the EU because we won't have to conform to the EU restrictions seems spurious to me.

If we charge WTO 74% then the price of imported milk from the EU goes up by that amount, but stuff from outside the EU already had that surcharge so wont change in price. Therefore the  UK price for milk will rise which will allow UK farmers to increase their price to the domestic market. But it means UK consumers pay more for their milk.

If we don't charge any tariff, then the EU price stays the same, but we could be flooded with milk from outside the EU which would have to have it's WTO surcharge removed. Good news for UK consumers and farmers outside the EU, but very bad news for UK farmers.

The same applies to all commodity products. Only speciality or premium products would be safe - If you were intending to buy a Merc, BMW or Audi then a 10% price increase is annoying but, would it be enough to persuade you to buy a UK built Nissan/Honda instead? Doubt it.
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Varche

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #42 on: 06 December 2017, 10:57:41 »

The answer might be to knock off 10% before adding the 10% very approx.

You mean the producer of the goods has to make a 10% cut in the price they sell for, so that the EU can then mark the price up by 10% again? Not sure many manufacturers will be keen on that - depends on the profit margins but if they ain't making 10% profit to start with then they won't be able to cut their export price by 10%.

WTO, 10%. Are you saying that the cars and agricultural products we sell to Europe will be 10% more. ..?

Does it work the other way round? E.g. will BMW s be 10% more and will Spanish tomotoes be 10% more?

Cars are 10% more, so yes a car built in the UK will cost 10% more in mainland Europe after Brexit. And a car built in mainland Europe will cost 10% more in the UK after Brexit.

Agricultral products have much higher tariffs. Skimmed Milk is 74%, Butter 63%, Wheat 53%, Cheese 43%, Frozen Beef 160%.

Still, since it appears most farmers voted for Brexit then I assume they realise that it may have some effect on their exports, so won't be complaining too loudly if it bites them  ::)

Sorry I still don't understand.

Here is an example.

Germany makes a BMW to sell in UK for £100000 (keeping figures simple.)

Post leaving EU the car now costs £110,000. Who got the £10,000? (I am guessing the UK government)

UK farmer sells £1000 worth of beef to Portugal. It now costs £1600. Who got the £600?

My point is in a scenario like this I dare say the rules don't allow direct subsidies e.g. BMW get £10,000 for every car sold to the Uk , in effect allowing them to sell them for approx £90,000 each making them approx £100,000 still to the end user.

However I suspect there would be very little to stop a Uk government subsidising beef farmers on every kilo of beef sold to in effect negate the price hike on exports.

If the agricultural products are so much higher then that will badly affect mainland European farmers. Spain produces an awful lot of stuff for the UK market. I believe the French send a lot of milk.



I know a bit about olive oil and the price in Europe is artificially high to support farmers (as per Jimmy's example Spanish farmers get tremendous grant help. At the moment they are drilling wells using other peoples(our) money to irrigate olive trees).Morocco is a producer at a fraction of the price but EU rules don't allow very much import. There is a small amount due to the special Spain/Morocco relationship. So straight away there is a Morocco/Uk market for half price olive oil post exit. 
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LC0112G

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #43 on: 06 December 2017, 11:20:36 »

Germany makes a BMW to sell in UK for £100000 (keeping figures simple.)

Post leaving EU the car now costs £110,000. Who got the £10,000? (I am guessing the UK government)
The UK govt would get the 10%. It's basically a tax on imports. The customer has to pay £110,000 for the car. HMG get £10K, BMW get £100K. The only way for BMW to keep the price to the customer at £100K would be for them to reduce their 'price' to £91K and then the HMG takes £9K making the cost to the customer £99K. Unlikely that BMW would adsorb all that so the price to the customer is likely to go up.

UK farmer sells £1000 worth of beef to Portugal. It now costs £1600. Who got the £600?
The WTO duty on beef is 160%, not £60%. So all of a sudden £1000 of UK beef costs the portugese consumer £2600. The Portugese govt gets the £1600 duty. However, are Portugese customers likely to continue to buy UK beef for £2600 when they could buy French beef for £1000? For the UK farmer to compete they would have to lower their 'price' from £1000 to £385, and the import duty (to the Portugese govt) would then be £615.

My point is in a scenario like this I dare say the rules don't allow direct subsidies e.g. BMW get £10,000 for every car sold to the Uk , in effect allowing them to sell them for approx £90,000 each making them approx £100,000 still to the end user.
Correct. the WTO rules don't allow subsidies like that. It's similar to the Bombardier/Boeing row over aircraft - the US accusing the Canadians of subsidising Bombardier and then imposing unilateral import tariffs.  Such subsidies can ultimately result in a full blown trade war.

However I suspect there would be very little to stop a Uk government subsidising beef farmers on every kilo of beef sold to in effect negate the price hike on exports.
Nothing that blatent is allowed under WTO rules. And anyway HMG subsidies actually means higher prices and taxes for UK tax payers like you? and me.

If the agricultural products are so much higher then that will badly affect mainland European farmers. Spain produces an awful lot of stuff for the UK market. I believe the French send a lot of milk.

I know a bit about olive oil and the price in Europe is artificially high to support farmers (as per Jimmy's example Spanish farmers get tremendous grant help. At the moment they are drilling wells using other peoples(our) money to irrigate olive trees).Morocco is a producer at a fraction of the price but EU rules don't allow very much import. There is a small amount due to the special Spain/Morocco relationship. So straight away there is a Morocco/Uk market for half price olive oil post exit.

Yup. If the UK is able to buy from the world market on equal trading rules then we will end up buying from the cheapest source. This could be bad news for EU farmers exporting into the UK if they aren't competitive on world terms. But it would also be bad for UK farmers exporting into the EU.
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Sir Tigger QC

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #44 on: 06 December 2017, 11:55:00 »

When you look at where produce comes from while in the supermarket, there is an awful lot that comes from outside the EU.  ::)

For example I bought a bag of runner beans from Kenya for 78p in Tesco the other day, and presumably part of that 78p is the import duty that goes to Brussels. I think that if we do leave on a 'No Deal' basis, it will be interesting to see how our supermarkets react. ie will they just carry on importing from Spain etc and add the import duty to the end price, or will they actively go out and source produce from countries with a cheaper cost base, and feed that through to the consumer.  ::)  :-\

There is a lot of Irish meat and dairy products in our supermarkets, which will be devastating for their agricultural sector if tariffs are applied.  Which makes their approach to the border issue completely absurd, as in my view the only way we can keep that border open is through a trade agreement.  :y
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