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Author Topic: Come on Arlene!  (Read 1144 times)

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LC0112G

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #45 on: 06 December 2017, 12:35:41 »

When you look at where produce comes from while in the supermarket, there is an awful lot that comes from outside the EU.  ::)

For example I bought a bag of runner beans from Kenya for 78p in Tesco the other day, and presumably part of that 78p is the import duty that goes to Brussels. I think that if we do leave on a 'No Deal' basis, it will be interesting to see how our supermarkets react. ie will they just carry on importing from Spain etc and add the import duty to the end price, or will they actively go out and source produce from countries with a cheaper cost base, and feed that through to the consumer.  ::)  :-\

There is a lot of Irish meat and dairy products in our supermarkets, which will be devastating for their agricultural sector if tariffs are applied.  Which makes their approach to the border issue completely absurd, as in my view the only way we can keep that border open is through a trade agreement.  :y

The duty goes to HMG, not Brussels.

Supermarkets will always source their commodity items from the cheapest place. Currently that's either UK, EU+no tariffs, or World+tariffs. Post Brexit, one of two things will happen :

1) No tariffs for anyone, which would be bad for UK and EU producers and good for World producers (and UK consumers) since the world producers goods get cheaper.
2) Same (WTO?) tariffs for everyone, which is good for UK domestic producers, but bad for UK consumers, UK exporters and EU producers but neutral for rest of the world producers.
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Varche

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #46 on: 06 December 2017, 13:15:18 »

Thanks for those insights. It certainly helps with some practical examples.

My gut feeling is one of two things will happen.

1. Common sense will prevail and the EU and the Uk will come to a sensible agreement that doesn't upset the apple cart too much. In other words things will continue much the same as now. It could be called a common trading market.

2. The Apple cart is upset, some businesses might go under, prices rocket, shortages occur, GDP suffers particularly in Germany and the UK, inflation steps in, wage inflation  and more.

Of the two , based on talks so far option two is the racing certainty making ExBrexit all the more likely.   
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Sir Tigger QC

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #47 on: 06 December 2017, 13:54:18 »

When you look at where produce comes from while in the supermarket, there is an awful lot that comes from outside the EU.  ::)

For example I bought a bag of runner beans from Kenya for 78p in Tesco the other day, and presumably part of that 78p is the import duty that goes to Brussels. I think that if we do leave on a 'No Deal' basis, it will be interesting to see how our supermarkets react. ie will they just carry on importing from Spain etc and add the import duty to the end price, or will they actively go out and source produce from countries with a cheaper cost base, and feed that through to the consumer.  ::)  :-\

There is a lot of Irish meat and dairy products in our supermarkets, which will be devastating for their agricultural sector if tariffs are applied.  Which makes their approach to the border issue completely absurd, as in my view the only way we can keep that border open is through a trade agreement.  :y

The duty goes to HMG, not Brussels.

Supermarkets will always source their commodity items from the cheapest place. Currently that's either UK, EU+no tariffs, or World+tariffs. Post Brexit, one of two things will happen :

1) No tariffs for anyone, which would be bad for UK and EU producers and good for World producers (and UK consumers) since the world producers goods get cheaper.
2) Same (WTO?) tariffs for everyone, which is good for UK domestic producers, but bad for UK consumers, UK exporters and EU producers but neutral for rest of the world producers.

You are correct in that HMG collect the duties, but they then pay them on to Brussels (less 20% for costs) as part of our annual contribution to the EU.  ;)

When I said presumably, I was presuming that there is an import tariff on vegetables coming into the EU from Kenya, not that the money ended up in Brussels.  :y

Money ending up in Brussels is a given!  :P  ;D
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LC0112G

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #48 on: 06 December 2017, 14:09:56 »

You are correct in that HMG collect the duties, but they then pay them on to Brussels (less 20% for costs) as part of our annual contribution to the EU.  ;)

Not sure if you're being obtuse or serious.

I CBA to look up what the duty is on Kenyan green beans, but lets suppose it's 40%. So of your 78p, 31p is duty, and 47p is the cost of the green beans (assuming Tescos take a negligible cut of the cost!). If a UK or EU producer can grow and supply the beans such that a supermarket can sell them for 47p, then you would buy those instead? Or if a UK or EU producer can grow and supply the beans such that a supermarket can sell them for 77p, then you would buy those instead? Would the UK's contribution to the EU then drop by 31p because there was still no duty payable?

There is no direct link between the import duties charged as a result of us being a member of the EU and our annual EU contributions, and pretending that it's all the EU's fault is wrongheaded. Yes the EU sets the tariffs, but the money is collected by HMG and goes into the same UK pot as VAT, Income tax, National Insurance, CGT, IPT etc, etc. 
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #49 on: 06 December 2017, 14:59:03 »

Surely, if we're importing less, more of the domestic produce will remain in the domestic market, resulting in lower transport and storage costs, ergo nothing actually changes :-\
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #50 on: 06 December 2017, 15:20:57 »

Surely, if we're importing less, more of the domestic produce will remain in the domestic market, resulting in lower transport and storage costs, ergo nothing actually changes :-\

Quite probably BUT the wheels will fall off the commerce bus not just in the UK but Europe and further afield if trade isn't continued to be grown. That is in no ones longer term interest. That is why I have always maintained common sense will prevail. Sadly you have politicians at the helm, many of which have no sense of commercial reality at business level or at household expense level. I see that on bbc website there is an article about German companies cannot wait for 2019 outcome and may have to change their investment strategies. Might be political posturing or might be reality. 
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Sir Tigger QC

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #51 on: 06 December 2017, 15:25:17 »

You are correct in that HMG collect the duties, but they then pay them on to Brussels (less 20% for costs) as part of our annual contribution to the EU.  ;)

Not sure if you're being obtuse or serious.

I CBA to look up what the duty is on Kenyan green beans, but lets suppose it's 40%. So of your 78p, 31p is duty, and 47p is the cost of the green beans (assuming Tescos take a negligible cut of the cost!). If a UK or EU producer can grow and supply the beans such that a supermarket can sell them for 47p, then you would buy those instead? Or if a UK or EU producer can grow and supply the beans such that a supermarket can sell them for 77p, then you would buy those instead? Would the UK's contribution to the EU then drop by 31p because there was still no duty payable?

There is no direct link between the import duties charged as a result of us being a member of the EU and our annual EU contributions, and pretending that it's all the EU's fault is wrongheaded. Yes the EU sets the tariffs, but the money is collected by HMG and goes into the same UK pot as VAT, Income tax, National Insurance, CGT, IPT etc, etc.

I'm being serious and there is absolutely a direct link between import duties and our annual EU contributions.  ::)

The three areas which form part of our contribution are:-

1) Import Duties.  Collected by HMRC and paid to the EU less 20% to cover the costs admin etc.  As you say it's probably paid into the general pot and paid to Brussels later.  There was a big row a couple of years ago when Brussels accused HMG of shortchanging them on the import duties that were due. I can't remember the details but I think they demanded £200-300 million extra and it turned out that the EU Commission were using a different method to calculate the amount due than the Treasury was.  I can't remember the outcome.  ::)

2) A percentage of Gross National Income, I think it's 0.7% but CBA to check.

3) A percentage of VAT receipts.  Don't know what that is and again I CBA to check.

I'm not pretending that anything is the EU's fault, my example with the Kenyan beans is more about the supermarkets behaviour.  I wonder if in a post BREXIT WTO world where tariffs are same whether my beans are coming from Kenya or Spain, will the supermarkets be complacent and carry on buying from their traditional suppliers or will they actively seek out cheaper new suppliers.  You say they will, I'm not so sure.  I hope they do as at the end of the day ordinary folk like you and me are stuck with whats on the shelves.  ;)
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #52 on: 06 December 2017, 16:14:02 »

There's another aspect to the whole thing...

Multinational companies trading around the globe to serve their customers regardless of borders... global consumer driven trade largely renders political markets null and void.

Perhaps if governments were run independently of business the whole system might work better... ie local* taxes paying for local services and facilities (schools/hospitals etc) :-\

*local meaning either nationally, regionally or by county.

Basically the government run the country and business runs the trade, and never the twain shall meet...
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #53 on: 06 December 2017, 20:57:58 »

Basically the government run the country and business runs the trade, and never the twain shall meet...
We know that can't work, as you will get one conglomerate destroy any competition.  No matter how misinformed and useless the UK regulators are, determined to bugger everything up (but then they are civil servants), they are a necessity.
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #54 on: 07 December 2017, 14:02:32 »

All this stuff will be irrelevant in the not too distant future as the whole thing will fall apart anyway.
The EU is about to sue three of its own member states for not taking in the number of 2asylum seekers" they were told to.
http://www.westmonster.com/eu-to-sue-three-european-countries-for-refusing-to-accept-asylum-seekers-1/

And Martin Schulz has announced today he wants a full U.S.E in 7 years time. Those who don't sign up will be kicked out of the E.U.


http://www.westmonster.com/schulz-united-states-of-europe-by-2025-those-who-resist-will-automatically-leave-eu/

Financial considerations are of course very important to all of us, but this stuff is much more important altogether.
Its the finalisation of a mega dictatorship.
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #55 on: 07 December 2017, 14:47:43 »


And Martin Schulz has announced today he wants a full U.S.E in 7 years time. Those who don't sign up will be kicked out of the E.U.


http://www.westmonster.com/schulz-united-states-of-europe-by-2025-those-who-resist-will-automatically-leave-eu/


Who cares what he has to say? - its basically the equivalent of Nick Clegg (when he was deputy PM) announcing it.  ::) Also, such a change would require a unanimous vote by member states.

Still, I suppose we should expect nothing less of the European equivalent of Breitbart
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #56 on: 07 December 2017, 15:06:50 »

Well the BBC reported Juncker "Brussels unveils plan to reform eurozone"
"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42250200

The European Commission has announced plans to reform the eurozone, including the creation of a monetary fund based on the existing bailout mechanism.

Contentious ideas such as the creation of a European finance minister and of a budget to support countries in trouble have been tabled for discussion.

Some members had warned that some of the plans were premature and ill-timed.

Germany is still without a new government and EU leaders are focused on the difficult Brexit negotiations.

Some countries had also raised concerns over plans that would give the Commission - the EU executive - more powers.


This is exactly why I voted leave. The immigration and other aspects are secondary.

They just do not learn or more importantly don't let anything get in their way of a united states of Europe run from Brussels. And before anyone says this only refers to Euroland - all member states will eventually have to take the euro. That always assumes the EU concept actually survives. There are ways of bullying countries into agreeing.
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #57 on: 07 December 2017, 18:10:20 »


And Martin Schulz has announced today he wants a full U.S.E in 7 years time. Those who don't sign up will be kicked out of the E.U.


http://www.westmonster.com/schulz-united-states-of-europe-by-2025-those-who-resist-will-automatically-leave-eu/


Who cares what he has to say? - its basically the equivalent of Nick Clegg (when he was deputy PM) announcing it.  ::) Also, such a change would require a unanimous vote by member states.

Still, I suppose we should expect nothing less of the European equivalent of Breitbart

Schulz has a lot more influence with the EU commission and parliament than Clegg ever did in this country.
Why  would it need approval from all member states ? Very little else that has happened since its inception has needed it.
Are you saying that people who believe the EU is going to become one large superstate are imagining it ?
I see Westmonster as the opposite number to the Guardian btw.  ;)
« Last Edit: 07 December 2017, 18:11:58 by Migv6 »
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Sir Tigger QC

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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #58 on: 07 December 2017, 18:11:37 »


And Martin Schulz has announced today he wants a full U.S.E in 7 years time. Those who don't sign up will be kicked out of the E.U.


http://www.westmonster.com/schulz-united-states-of-europe-by-2025-those-who-resist-will-automatically-leave-eu/


Who cares what he has to say? - its basically the equivalent of Nick Clegg (when he was deputy PM) announcing it.  ::) Also, such a change would require a unanimous vote by member states.

Still, I suppose we should expect nothing less of the European equivalent of Breitbart

Well we all know you are an arch-remainer Jimmy, but dismiss this at your peril.  ::)  Martin Shultz is quite possibly Germany's next Vice-Chancellor and if so will have much more influence and power than his predecessors as a former President of the EU parliament and given that Angela Merkel is not the towering figure that she was.  ;)

What he said is fact and has been widely reported.  Even in the Guardian!  :o  ;D

I suspect Jimmy quite likes the idea of the Peoples United States of Europe.  :)
« Last Edit: 07 December 2017, 18:27:31 by Sir Tigger QC »
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Re: Come on Arlene!
« Reply #59 on: 07 December 2017, 20:52:27 »

In all honesty I'm ambivalent about USE. And it has no relevance to the Brexit discussion as we would (if remaining) hold a veto. So it would only happen if out democratically elected government agreed to it.

What I do care about is that we are already poorer as a result of brexit, and will continue to be so for years (decades?) to come. I'd rather spend that money on something that adds value, rather than higher interest on our debt, more civil servants and worst of all David fu£king Davis.

As for schultz. His party has just polled its worst numbers since WW2, it's only natural he'd want to grab some headlines and try to avoid becoming a political irrelevance. German coalition  king-maker possibly, future leader, I doubt it. Also, I thought the whole point of the Eu was that it wasn't beholden to governments. Or is that only true when it's the uk government?

MIGV6, states retain the power if veto on matters of common foreign and security policy as well as harmonisation of social security. And several other things which would be required to make a USE. Anyone used their veto, no agreement. Pretty much like article 50, which is why I don't think we'll get a deal that's anything close to acceptable.
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