Omega Owners Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

Please play nicely.  No one wants to listen/read a keyboard warriors rants....

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9   Go Down

Author Topic: Lockdown  (Read 10420 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

dave the builder

  • Omega Lord
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Derbyshire
  • Posts: 7778
    • omega b2 2.6 cdxi
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #90 on: 13 January 2021, 21:52:35 »


90% effective against the mutations we know about.
in theory
time will tell ,it's still all very new ,
and now covid is spread so widely ,new variants ,including ones the current vaccines won't work on is inevitable
Logged

Entwood

  • Omega Queen
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • North Wiltshire
  • Posts: 19566
  • My Old 3.2 V6 Elite (LPG)
    • Audi A6 Allroad 3.0 DTI
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #91 on: 13 January 2021, 21:57:07 »

I'll take 90% against a virus with a sub 0.1% mortality rate  ;)

I actually thought you were capable of simple maths .....   but obviously not ...

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

21:58 GMT on 13 January 2021

Worldwide:

just over 92 million cases

slightly under 2 million deaths ....

now I make that a mortality rate of 2/92 or 1 in 46 .....   2.17 % ..... not a lot different to yours ..  if you can't understand maths that is .... but if you do understand maths ........ 

UK

83,342 deaths

3,173,291 cases

thats 2.626 % mortality ........
« Last Edit: 13 January 2021, 22:13:47 by Entwood »
Logged

STEMO

  • Omega Lord
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8357
    • Astra 1.6 diesel
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #92 on: 13 January 2021, 22:10:53 »

Where DG is falling down is that he is counting deaths per million of the population. But, of course, that is incorrect when calculating the mortality rate. The percentage of deaths of people who have actually caught the virus, as above, is correct. I believe the figure is nearer 2.7% in the UK.
Logged
Diesel till I die

Nick W

  • Omega Queen
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Chatham, Kent
  • Posts: 10856
  • Rover Metro 1.8VVC
    • 3.0l Elite estate
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #93 on: 13 January 2021, 22:14:16 »

Don't forget that 64.8% of statistics are made up on the spot. The remaining 38% are misunderstood.
Logged

STEMO

  • Omega Lord
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8357
    • Astra 1.6 diesel
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #94 on: 13 January 2021, 22:14:20 »

It could be said that the mortality rate figures are incorrect, because not everyone who catches the virus shows symptoms and is, therefore, tested. But it's certainly nearer the 2 point something than the 0.1%.
Logged
Diesel till I die

Entwood

  • Omega Queen
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • North Wiltshire
  • Posts: 19566
  • My Old 3.2 V6 Elite (LPG)
    • Audi A6 Allroad 3.0 DTI
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #95 on: 13 January 2021, 22:14:37 »

Where DG is falling down is that he is counting deaths per million of the population. But, of course, that is incorrect when calculating the mortality rate. The percentage of deaths of people who have actually caught the virus, as above, is correct. I believe the figure is nearer 2.7% in the UK.

yup ... edited the figures for you...
Logged

STEMO

  • Omega Lord
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8357
    • Astra 1.6 diesel
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #96 on: 13 January 2021, 22:21:11 »

Then..you can break down the figures even further to show the mortality rate for different age groups. I reckon it would be much higher for someone like me, in my late sixties. 2.7 in every hundred is scary enough, I don't think I want to know about my age group.
Logged
Diesel till I die

Andy B

  • Get A Life!!
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Bury Lancs
  • Posts: 39481
    • ML350 TDM SmartRoadster
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #97 on: 13 January 2021, 22:23:44 »

all I can say is that the COVID ICU wards that my daughter works in are more than full ....she came home from her 12 hour shift this evening, shouted through to her Mum that she was going to shower the COVID off her and  that was it .... we've not seen her since.  :'(
Logged

Entwood

  • Omega Queen
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • North Wiltshire
  • Posts: 19566
  • My Old 3.2 V6 Elite (LPG)
    • Audi A6 Allroad 3.0 DTI
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #98 on: 13 January 2021, 22:26:28 »

Then..you can break down the figures even further to show the mortality rate for different age groups. I reckon it would be much higher for someone like me, in my late sixties. 2.7 in every hundred is scary enough, I don't think I want to know about my age group.

Information available here .. xls spreadsheet with age group breakdowns ... if you are worried about 65-70 .. don't even look at over 80's.....

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Logged

dave the builder

  • Omega Lord
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Derbyshire
  • Posts: 7778
    • omega b2 2.6 cdxi
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #99 on: 13 January 2021, 22:28:22 »

so if 2.7% died pre vaccine programs
vaccine may be 90% effective perhaps
is it roughly  10% of 2.7% (0.27%) will still die  ? (excluding other factors, like better treatments, daft covid death calculation based on test/28 days )
my maths isn't great ,I only calculate in bricks, slabs and planks  :P
Logged

Entwood

  • Omega Queen
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • North Wiltshire
  • Posts: 19566
  • My Old 3.2 V6 Elite (LPG)
    • Audi A6 Allroad 3.0 DTI
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #100 on: 13 January 2021, 22:34:17 »

so if 2.7% died pre vaccine programs
vaccine may be 90% effective perhaps
is it roughly  10% of 2.7% (0.27%) will still die  ? (excluding other factors, like better treatments, daft covid death calculation based on test/28 days )
my maths isn't great ,I only calculate in bricks, slabs and planks  :P

You can look at it like that, but they are actually hoping for better, as the vaccine has an effect that even if you still catch covid-19 after vaccination, it would appear that you will, probably, be less seriously ill.

The honest answer is that no-one actually knows, and won't know, until a huge number of folks have been vaccinated, then the weeks pass that allow the vaccine to work in your body, then we see what the rates of infection, transmission, and, unfortunately, death level out at... only then will we know the real effect.

At the moment the purpose of the vaccination programme is NOT to stop the majority from catching covid-19, but to try and try and stop those most at risk from dying doing just that..... hence the over 80's being no 1 priority.

All these "special interest" idiots demanding "priority" are totally missing the point ... deliberately I feel.....
« Last Edit: 13 January 2021, 22:36:15 by Entwood »
Logged

dave the builder

  • Omega Lord
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Derbyshire
  • Posts: 7778
    • omega b2 2.6 cdxi
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #101 on: 13 January 2021, 22:37:21 »

all I can say is that the COVID ICU wards that my daughter works in are more than full ....she came home from her 12 hour shift this evening, shouted through to her Mum that she was going to shower the COVID off her and  that was it .... we've not seen her since.  :'(
Terrible that nurses, doctors etc should have to do 12 hour shifts in such environments watching people die etc, putting their own lives at risk ,but i guess the trained staff shortages and the virus being so "out of control" it's  inevitable  :(

some TV adds showing how bad it really is might help persuade the rule breakers
Logged

LC0112G

  • Omega Baron
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • 0
  • Posts: 2443
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #102 on: 14 January 2021, 00:06:43 »

You can look at it like that, but they are actually hoping for better, as the vaccine has an effect that even if you still catch covid-19 after vaccination, it would appear that you will, probably, be less seriously ill.

The problem for the authorities with that argument is that, whilst it is (probably) true that once vaccinated you will be less seriously ill if you do still catch it, there isn't much evidence that it stops you catching it. If the vaccine turns people who would otherwise have gone down with a mild dose of man-flu into asymptomatic cases, then those people can catch it and may not know they're infected. Since they're vaccinated they may think they're immune. That, together with these new much more easily caught mutations, could turn vaxinated under 50's into super-spreaders. 

I'm also not sure where the 90% comes from wrt the Oxford Vax - the version we're most likely to get. The figures published in the Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext) for two 100% doses up to 6 weeks apart was 60-70%. The 90% figure refers to the 50%-100% Oxford doses which haven't been approved by the MHRA because the sample size was too small, and all the participants were in the 40-55 age group IIRC. We already know that those aged 60+ are at a much higher risk, so if the 50-100 regime had been tested across a wider age group the results would probably be lower (a lot lower) than 90%.

You can go further and say that if the 100-100 dosage has an average of 60-70% across all tested age groups, but the 40-55 age group has a 90% rate for a 50-100 dose, then it's highly likely the 40-55 group has a similar 90% ish rate for a 100-100 dose. If that's the case, then because 60-70% is the average for all age groups, the 55-90 year old rate must be waaaaayyyyyy less than 60-70%.

In short, the vaccines are good news, and should help to dramatically reduce serious cases and hospital admissions once the majority of over 60's have been jabbed. But the over 60's are going to remain much more vulnerable than the under 40's for a long time yet. IMV.

It's also interesting that the Oxford testing was done in the UK, South Africa and Brazil. Remind me where these new strains of the virus are bing first detected  ::)
Logged

Doctor Gollum

  • Get A Life!!
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • In a colds and darks puddleses
  • Posts: 28190
  • If you can't eat them, join them...
    • Feetses.
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #103 on: 14 January 2021, 02:20:37 »

For the purposes of my post, I didn't even look at the figures.

Having said that, the total number of cases, recovered and deaths relative to total population for the UK are 4.7%; 2.05%; 0.125% respectively.

Even if you only count active cases the potential mortality rate is 5%.

At 90% efficacy, this drops to 0.45%.

Like I said, I will gladly take any of those odds.
Logged
Onanists always think outside the box.

Doctor Gollum

  • Get A Life!!
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • In a colds and darks puddleses
  • Posts: 28190
  • If you can't eat them, join them...
    • Feetses.
    • View Profile
Re: Lockdown
« Reply #104 on: 14 January 2021, 02:43:52 »

I should add, the figures I used were rounded... 3,200,000 total cases; 1,700,000 active cases; 85,000 deaths and 68,000,000 total UK population.
Logged
Onanists always think outside the box.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9   Go Up
 

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 22 queries.