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Author Topic: Lockdown  (Read 10427 times)

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STEMO

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #105 on: 14 January 2021, 06:52:39 »

For the purposes of my post, I didn't even look at the figures.

Having said that, the total number of cases, recovered and deaths relative to total population for the UK are 4.7%; 2.05%; 0.125% respectively.

Even if you only count active cases the potential mortality rate is 5%.

At 90% efficacy, this drops to 0.45%.

Like I said, I will gladly take any of those odds.
;D ;D ;D
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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #106 on: 14 January 2021, 07:46:53 »

For the purposes of my post, I didn't even look at the figures.

Having said that, the total number of cases, recovered and deaths relative to total population for the UK are 4.7%; 2.05%; 0.125% respectively.

Even if you only count active cases the potential mortality rate is 5%.

At 90% efficacy, this drops to 0.45%.

Like I said, I will gladly take any of those odds.
;D ;D ;D
The odds of catching and subsequently dying from it vs total global population is, and has always been, negligible.

Actually 0.025%, so 0.1% was a significant overestimate.  :P
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Varche

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #107 on: 14 January 2021, 08:53:52 »

That will be of great comfort to the 1500 dead yesterday in  the UK and their families, and the 1500 today and the 2000? tomorrow.
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LC0112G

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #108 on: 14 January 2021, 10:04:33 »

For the purposes of my post, I didn't even look at the figures.

Having said that, the total number of cases, recovered and deaths relative to total population for the UK are 4.7%; 2.05%; 0.125% respectively.

Even if you only count active cases the potential mortality rate is 5%.

At 90% efficacy, this drops to 0.45%.

Like I said, I will gladly take any of those odds.

No. That assumes that both the efficacy and odds of dying from it are evenly spread over all age groups, which we know isn't true.

It is known that the 80+ group are many times more likely to die from it than the under 40's.

And the evidence suggests that the efficacy is lower in the 80+ than 40-.

And the Oxford jab isn't 90%. Its 60-70%.

Therefore assuming that the death rate will drop by 90% is highly optimistic minister.
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Entwood

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #109 on: 14 January 2021, 10:38:55 »

For the purposes of my post, I didn't even look at the figures.

Having said that, the total number of cases, recovered and deaths relative to total population for the UK are 4.7%; 2.05%; 0.125% respectively.

Even if you only count active cases the potential mortality rate is 5%.

At 90% efficacy, this drops to 0.45%.

Like I said, I will gladly take any of those odds.

Ahh ... more from the D Trump School of obfuscation ...

rule 1 :  make up a random fact and state it is true ......  (I didn't even look at the figures.)

rule 2 :  ensure random fact is not actually part of original argument  ... (relative to total population)

rule 3 :  incorporate original question into a misleading argument to support your agenda ... (if you only count active cases the potential mortality)

rule 4 :  throw out more random but untrue facts ....  (At 90% efficacy, this drops to 0.45%.  ...  [(100%-90%) of 5% is NOT 0.45% !!] )

Note : the subject matter WAS the claim that the mortality rate is 0.1%.... nothing else ... now proven to be totally untrue .. but IAW Trump dictact .. never admit to being wrong about anything ......

« Last Edit: 14 January 2021, 10:52:18 by Entwood »
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Migv6 le Frog Fan

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #110 on: 14 January 2021, 10:59:38 »

I think some of us need to take a day off.  ::)
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STEMO

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #111 on: 14 January 2021, 11:35:39 »

I think some of us need to take a day off.  ::)
What? And just let others post complete rubbish unchallenged?
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Migv6 le Frog Fan

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #112 on: 14 January 2021, 11:43:48 »

No, but its all getting a bit too personal imo.  ;)
A few deep breaths and a bit of time distracting yourself with something else, can help put things back into perspective sometimes.
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STEMO

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #113 on: 14 January 2021, 11:51:09 »

No, but its all getting a bit too personal imo.  ;)
A few deep breaths and a bit of time distracting yourself with something else, can help put things back into perspective sometimes.
It's always going to get personal, it's human nature...........Paddy  ;D
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johnnydog

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #114 on: 14 January 2021, 11:59:05 »

Thumbs up 👍👍👍👍for Entwood, that's all I'm going to say...
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dave the builder

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #115 on: 14 January 2021, 12:27:16 »

Well I hold my hands up to the completely inaccurate "90 % effective"  :-[
genuine mistake
I was basing it on news a while back that after 2 doses of Vaccine ,that was the number ish
so sorry for screwing  all the calculations and I'm very glad people have pointed out it's not the case
not that i want covid vaccine to be worse than I estimated ,but that accurate figures (as best as we can guesstimate ) are shown

now that we have 3 ? different vaccines so far being dished out ,with different doses and timescales ,single or 2 doses it's very confusing for a plank like me to get my head round the figures  :D

I just hope we can get past this covid bombshell and ,though life won't be the same as before  :( ,get back to a normal-ish life.
sadly for some, that will never be the case  :(
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Sir Tigger KC

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #116 on: 14 January 2021, 13:37:42 »

I think some of us need to take a day off.  ::)
What? And just let others post complete rubbish unchallenged?

Why not?  We let you get away with it all the time!  :)
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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #117 on: 14 January 2021, 13:46:11 »

Damned loes and Statistics ;D

1. I never presented that as fact.

2. Dave never presented his 90% in context.

3. They are numbers. How you perceive their interpretation is entirely upto you.

4. It might reasonably be prestented that if the 5% who would otherwise die, 0.45% would survive at 90% efficacy if they had taken the vaccine. (5% x 90% = 0.45%).

And as for the 0.1% being wrong, I think I have covered that.

If you want to include different age ranges and their mortality rates, crack on. By taking the population as a whole you already include them, it just doesn't show the skew one way or tother.

As far as the over (insert age of choice) mortality rates go, of course they are higher than the total population : there are fewer of them and they are already more like to die. This holds more true the further from what ever age you start from... 90+ are fewer in number and more likely to die than 85+, 80+, 70+ etc, etc. That's how life goes.

My overall point was that I would rather have my pathetic pre March 2020 existence than whatever THIS is supposed to be. Trying to participate here clearly isn't helping, because you're obviously not allowed to express anything beyond the BBC view of the world.  :-X

Stemo, I hope SWMBO gets home ok.

Dave, you've nowt to apologise for... They were your take on the information presented  ;)

Varche, do you ever consider a positive option?

Johnnydog, if you've summat to say, then just say it.

Albs, I think you may have a point...  :y
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Varche

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #118 on: 14 January 2021, 18:08:23 »

Do I ever consider a positive option?

Yes throughout my life. Served me very well. I cannot see anything positive  with where we are now  . Cant go anywhere, we are heading for greater lockdown measures, vaccine isnt the panacea many people think it is, could do with being in Yorkshire to sort things for my ailing dad, another younger family member has cancer, every time you switch the tele on there is nothing but bad news. Microsoft lock us out of our account almost every day, smart tv is stuck permanently updating hub. The list is long and just a sample.
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STEMO

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #119 on: 14 January 2021, 18:09:55 »

Do I ever consider a positive option?

Yes throughout my life. Served me very well. I cannot see anything positive  with where we are now  . Cant go anywhere, we are heading for greater lockdown measures, vaccine isnt the panacea many people think it is, could do with being in Yorkshire to sort things for my ailing dad, another younger family member has cancer, every time you switch the tele on there is nothing but bad news. Microsoft lock us out of our account almost every day, smart tv is stuck permanently updating hub. The list is long and just a sample.
And Spain had massive snowfalls and minus 27°C earlier in the week.
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