Disagree. We're past the point of getting relatively 'easy' 25%-50% improvements in the battery tech. We're in the ever decreasing improvement stage within a few percent of the theoretical maximum. The main driver has been mobile phones, where better battieries and lower power electronics have countered the drain caused by bloatware apps.
Says who? There are prototype batteries that exist now which have been shown to deliver over 430wh/kg. Are they within a few percent of the theoretical maximum? Or are you referring to the 255kwh batteries that are already in production.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/%EF%BB%BFterawatts-solid-state-battery-prototype-achieves-energy-density-of-1122-wh-l/And yes, I am well aware that prototype and production units are a long way apart, but you assertion that EVs are somehow running close to the theoretical maximum of what a battery can do just doesn't fit with what already exists in the world today, never mind any genuinely new or as-yet-undisclosed innovation, which will come because you have big business investing billions to achieve it.
So, even if we only realise a prototype-to-production shift of a battery that already exists, the 64kwh Kona ev that exists today would become 110kwh, without adding any more weight or volume to the battery pack. That means you would have a small EV, that does well over 400 miles in the real world, and thats just based on what is known to exist today - no leaps in technology required.
450 miles if you start fully charged and with a 10 minute charge may be doable, but you've ended up with a very flat battery. You can't then fast charge it at home - a typical single phase home electric supply is limited to 7.5Kw, so it'll take in excess of 10 hours to get back to 75% charge (assuming you don't want to use any other high power leccie at home - kettle, cooker, toaster etc). 100% charge probably 14 hours. You could upgrade your supply to 3 phase, which could cut the charging times by one third, but that's an extra cost.
Yes, charging a 90-100kwh ev from flat to full/80% is going to take you about 14hrs, but the only use case where that's an issue is where I empty my 300 mile battery, then get home, and need all the range very early the next day, I think you're down to a tiny percentage of the population where that would present an issue.
One thing we can absolutely agree on is that at present, the UK charging infrastructure isn't fit to support mass-use of short range EVs, but no one is expecting it to, in the same way 99.9% of the time no one fills up at motorway services, the need just won't be there.
Taking rapid chargers only (those that are 50kw or above), in the UK there were 300 in 2012, 3400 at the end of 2018, and there 4400 as at today. The network is growing at an increasing rate and there are now more public charge points (fasts + rapids) than there are petrol stations.
100Kw batteries aren't fitted to smaller cars - only the top of the range stuff. They're expensive and heavy. Small cars are typically less than 50Kw, so the range drops from 300+ to 150+, which means the commute drops to less than 75 miles. I was being generous saying 100 miles! You're picking the best bits from a large expensive car (high battery capacity) and assuming they'll apply to a typical electric eurobox. It won't.
Again, you're not really considering the facts and what's already out there. 60kw+ variants of 'euro boxes' are already here and delivering 250 miles of real world driving, specifically the Kona EV and the Nissan leaf e-plus. The e-golf's replacement is dropping in the new year and will offer 3 variants (broadly) 200, 250 and 300 mile.
My outdated golf is delivering 4.3 miles per kwh as a long term average, so you simply don't need 100kwh packs to hit 300 miles of usable range in a smaller car. I charge at work because its free and its very rare I charge at home (why would I?) meaning my 110 mile commute is handled just fine by my 130 mile(ish) ev. As I've said on here before, I don't drive 'economically' or sit with no air con/heat on or any of that nonsense, I would imagine I could get close to 150 miles in mine, but I'm not that sad.
In reality, a 64kwh car, such as those that already exist would be fine for a commute of 100 miles each way - which almost no one does anyway.
But you can't compare the fuelling time of an ICE with the act of plugging into a charger, as the actual fuelling time is a lot longer, even if you only ever use a fast charger.
My commute is 25 miles each way, but with no charging facility at work, I would have to charge mine every day in order to guarantee getting home on the second day.
Even the least economical vehicle would last me a week without topping up...
Granted, the saving on cost of electricity goes someway towards offsetting the time cost of charging.
Why does it matter how long the activity takes if you aren't actively involved in it?
My refuelling time (ie the time out of my day that I spend on recharging my car) is 10-15s, which would be far less if I charged at home and didn't have to get the charge cable out of the boot. The fact that the car is doing something while I'm at work or asleep is not my concern.
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