Wildly wrong with his modelling of Avian Flu, Swine Flu, Foot & Mouth, BSE & Covid-19. His model went from predicting 500,000 UK Covid-19 deaths making the Government panic with the lockdown rather than healthy under 70's carrying on as normal & producing herd immunity & then modified his model with a lockdown & social distancing saying there would only be 20,000 deaths.
Pity he didn't stick to fu*king his mistress, instead of fu*king the UK & totally fu*king our economy with UK 6.3m furloughed plus the 1.25m unemployed, so currently 23% of the UK workforce aren't working, which doesn't include any of the 4m self-employed many of whom have no work. In 1933 unemployment peaked in the USA at 24% in their Great Depression.
This a a review of the Ferguson's code release where if you use the same random seed for a pseudo random number generator & the same assumptions you should get the same results. Even running it as a single core thread, you don't with one such test giving an 80,000 death discrepancy over an 80 day iteration. The confidence in being able to prove any scientific hypothesis is based on independent parties being able to repeat experiments and getting correlating results within the limits of quantifiable experimental errors. His model model results are junk science.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/Initial randomised Covid-19 antibody tests in the USA are finding between x50 and x85 times the number of people with them for every confirmed Covid-19 case which gives a mortality rate between 2 and 3 per 1000 infected people, so slightly more dangerous than a slightly worse than average Influenza at 1 death per 1000 infections. Antibody tests in Germany, Italy & The Netherlands are getting similar results. The UK has no antibody tests as they are not happy with the current test's sensitivity & are holding out for better tests which they hope will become available sometime in June, later or maybe never. Until the UK Government have some UK antibody test results they are give the UK's economy with a £150,000,000,000-£200,000,000,000 per month economic hit, while running the lockdown policy on blind infection & mortality rate assumptions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3_OseL0ArYI don't expect Governments to get everything right in a crisis with anything over 50% of correct decisions being a good result. Sadly, IMV this Government seems to be falling well short of this number.
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Topic: Prof Neil Ferguson (Read 3595 times)