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[Sir Tigger KC]

I suspect there will be a General Election in the Spring. 

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

I suspect there will be a General Election in the Spring. 

Corbyn in number ten?

Never say never.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I suspect there will be a General Election in the Spring. 

Corbyn in number ten?

Never say never.

Never. 

[LC0112G]

I suspect there will be a General Election in the Spring. 

Teresa May cannot just wake up one morning and decide to call a snap election. I suggest our esteemed QC familiarises himself with the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 : http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

There are only 3 ways there can be a general election before May 2020 :

1) Two-thirds of MP's vote for one
2) The sitting Govt loses a vote of no confidence.
3) The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 is repealed.

So which of these three do you think is going to happen next spring?

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

She has a parliamentary majority, so number 3 shouldn't cause a massive problem if she wants to go to the country.

[Sir Tigger KC]

I suspect there will be a General Election in the Spring. 

Teresa May cannot just wake up one morning and decide to call a snap election. I suggest our esteemed QC familiarises himself with the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 : http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

There are only 3 ways there can be a general election before May 2020 :

1) Two-thirds of MP's vote for one
2) The sitting Govt loses a vote of no confidence.
3) The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 is repealed.

So which of these three do you think is going to happen next spring?

It seems likely that the Supreme Court will reject the Governments appeal on A50.  If the Government has difficulty passing an A50 bill through Parliament (in whichever form that might be, as the Supreme Court might helpfully provide some instruction) then I think any of the three scenarios could come to pass to be honest.

[LC0112G]

She has a parliamentary majority, so number 3 shouldn't cause a massive problem if she wants to go to the country.

It's primary legislation, so needs a bill before parliament to repeal it. That bill has to have 3 readings, and go through the House of Lords twice too. Likely to take weeks if not months, and therefore difficult to call it a 'snap' election.

[STEMO]

If it did happen, and I don't think it will, party manifestos would be short and sweet........we're out or we're in.

[LC0112G]

I suspect there will be a General Election in the Spring. 

Teresa May cannot just wake up one morning and decide to call a snap election. I suggest our esteemed QC familiarises himself with the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 : http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

There are only 3 ways there can be a general election before May 2020 :

1) Two-thirds of MP's vote for one
2) The sitting Govt loses a vote of no confidence.
3) The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 is repealed.

So which of these three do you think is going to happen next spring?

It seems likely that the Supreme Court will reject the Governments appeal on A50.  If the Government has difficulty passing an A50 bill through Parliament (in whichever form that might be, as the Supreme Court might helpfully provide some instruction) then I think any of the three scenarios could come to pass to be honest.

The problem is that if the Govt lose the Supreme court case, then they won't be able to invoke Art50 without passing a bill through Parliament. If they try to call a GE before that bill Is passed, and/or Art50 is invoked, then the GE will become a defacto second referendum. You then have the Conservatives, Labour and UKIP all standing on a Leave manifesto, even though most of the sitting MP's are remainers. And the LibDems & SNP standing on a remain ticket.

The referendum result was 52/48 in favour of leave. However, to win an absolute majority in a GE you typically only need mid/high 30s% of the total vote. Conservative remainers may well vote Liberal, as happened to Zac Goldsmith. Labour remainers may also vote Liberal to try and keep is 'in'. I reckon a hung parliament is very likely, and there is no way the SNP or Liberals will support a govt who plan to invoke Art50. So we end up in stalemate unless Conservatives and Labour form a coalition. How likely is that?

So - if we are to Brexit Art50 must be invoked before any GE. I would go further and say that we must exit the EU before the next GE because it is far from certain whether Art50 is reversible or not. If we're not out before the next GE, then the next govt could in theory try to revoke the Art50 notification. What a mess.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Yes there are many possible outcomes of a GE.  As you say the Tories, Labour and UKIP would stand on a Leave ticket, but with variations of BREXIT Hardness, with Labour and UKIP at either end of the scales.  The LibDems would likely stage a minor comeback but IMO would still remain insignificant.  Scotland would be the interesting one as I'm not convinced that the SNP would repeat their electoral success of 2015.

I would expect a solid Tory majority, because if you translate the referendum results into a GE constituency type contest, Leave would have won with a massive landslide.  Which could mean opportunities for UKIP if they can get their act together under Paul Nuttall, and target those disaffect Labour voters.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Many Labour MP,s would be terrified of standing on an anti Brexit platform, as many of their constituencies voted  for Brexit.
They would be playing into UKIP,s hands, and I'm sure most of them know it.
I cant see any other scenario than the Tories winning a strong majority.

[Rods2]

Latest opinion polls show it would be very close as Tories are currently only 16% ahead of Liebour. Corbyn and his fist class team of MP's rouges are working wonders on how electable Liebour are.

Latest polls also show the effect that the non-event of project fear would have if there was another in-out EU referendum. Leave is currently on 68%, so much for remoaners saying that most Leavers regret how they voted. Next time a remoaner is calling for a rerun, cheer them up with the 68%.

At least Jimmy Krankies party the SNP are sowing a united front, except for Krankies deputy has said if she campaigns to leave UK and rejoin EU, he will campaign and vote to stay as doesn't want to rejoin.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Meanwhile in Italy - the PM has just announced his resignation, which may well cause Italy to be the second domino to fall in the near future.
We are living in interesting times.