Omega Owners Forum

Chat Area => General Car Chat => Topic started by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 17:05:55

Title: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 17:05:55
Sales of hybrid and electric vehicles fell for the first time last month. Only half the number were sold, compared to the same time last year.
I know Opti loves a proper milk float.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 04 July 2019, 17:08:18
How does that compare to the sales of normal cars?

I suspect that we're barely a couple of years from another global economic meltdown  :-\
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 17:10:56
How does that compare to the sales of normal cars?

I suspect that we're barely a couple of years from another global economic meltdown  :-\
'Normal' cars have been declining for years, obviously. But hybrid/electric have been bucking that trend. Not so now.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 17:42:22
until the national grid is massively updated ,electric cars are not a viable option for most people
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 04 July 2019, 17:43:50
Not hard to see why, the tax advantages of hybrids are being slashed. Quite rightly in my view as they are basically a tax compliance exercise. They have a barely usable range (less than 30 real world miles in most cases). Contrast that with full EVs (albeit they are still a tiny segment of the market):

Quote from: Some online news site
The low emission vehicle segment also experienced its first drop in demand in more than two years, trade body SMMT said.

But while sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles fell more than 50 per cent last month compared to June 2018, following the removal of government grants last year, sales of battery EVs shot up more than 61 per cent, making it one of the few segments of the UK car market to enjoy demand growth.

Overall, battery EV sales have soared by 60.3 per cent over the first half of 2019 compared to the same period last year, with British motorists registering almost 12,000 new EVs over the past six months. In comparison, just under 7,500 new EV sales were registered in the first half of 2018.

Talking of cost, our gawd awful payroll providers have finally straightened my payslips out so I can see the impact of having my milk float. 77 a week all in, including insurance, tyres, servicing, oh and my free electricity from work  8). That compares to 63 a week in diesel alone in the Ovlov. If I were paying for my own electric, it would be costing me somewhere around 99 per week.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 17:46:35
I misunderstood what I read. I read plug-in hybrid as electric. My bad.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 04 July 2019, 17:48:37
until the national grid is massively updated ,electric cars are not a viable option for most people

What makes you think that? The majority of people in the UK travel less than 10,000 miles per year or 192 miles a week. So even with a short range EV like mine, you would only have to charge it about once every 3-4 days...

Whether they make economic sense for most people is a whole different question. But its the same question you could ask about any new car.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 17:50:29
until the national grid is massively updated ,electric cars are not a viable option for most people

What makes you think that? The majoritypeople in the UK travel less than 10,000 miles per year or 192 miles a week. So even with a short range EV like mine, you would only have to charge it about once every 3-4 days...

Whether they make economic sense for most people is a whole different question. But its the same question you could ask about any new car.
The older my car gets, the more economic sense it makes to keep it. It runs great, but is worth less as a trade in each year.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: 2boxerdogs on 04 July 2019, 17:57:39
until the national grid is massively updated ,electric cars are not a viable option for most people

What makes you think that? The majoritypeople in the UK travel less than 10,000 miles per year or 192 miles a week. So even with a short range EV like mine, you would only have to charge it about once every 3-4 days...

Whether they make economic sense for most people is a whole different question. But its the same question you could ask about any new car.
The older my car gets, the more economic sense it makes to keep it. It runs great, but is worth less as a trade in each year.
.     



Exactly & so true I can cruise around in my V8 Merc I owe nothing on it & it owes me nothing & still turns heads .
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 04 July 2019, 18:09:17
until the national grid is massively updated ,electric cars are not a viable option for most people

Especially if you live, like a lot of people do, in blocks of flats! ::) ::) ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 18:10:06
until the national grid is massively updated ,electric cars are not a viable option for most people

What makes you think that? The majority of people in the UK travel less than 10,000 miles per year or 192 miles a week. So even with a short range EV like mine, you would only have to charge it about once every 3-4 days...

Whether they make economic sense for most people is a whole different question. But its the same question you could ask about any new car.
we don't have the power stations to cope
much of the grid is antiquated HV infrastructure
a big chunk of domestic supply cabling in the street is run over capacity and is ancient
DNOs have down-rated many cut outs to 60A

the UK national grid needs a complete overhaul before the government push electric cars onto us all

that will cost billions , recycling are current cars uses masses of energy,
harvesting and shipping the raw materials for electric cars or green energy generation uses masses of energy
"carbon footprint" wise  , swapping to electric cars is crazy
to do any good, public transport needs massive a overhaul to be usable ,so people don't have personal cars

all the updates will cost a gallilion ,massive carbon footprint and more pollution

for some people, electric cars will work, for some push bikes work , some walk
electric cars for all will NOT work


Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 04 July 2019, 18:32:15
How does that compare to the sales of normal cars?

I suspect that we're barely a couple of years from another global economic meltdown  :-\
'Normal' cars have been declining for years, obviously. But hybrid/electric have been bucking that trend. Not so now.

Yes....perhaps diesel is the new electric. ::) ::) ::) :)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 04 July 2019, 18:36:49
Actually I've been showing 'interest' in the Tesla 3 Performance.

Nippy little 'appliance' devoid of soul and passion but it least it seems to have a reasonable range (at least for a year or two before the batteries drop to 50% or so)

 
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 04 July 2019, 18:46:49
Not hard to see why, the tax advantages of hybrids are being slashed. Quite rightly in my view as they are basically a tax compliance exercise. They have a barely usable range (less than 30 real world miles in most cases). Contrast that with full EVs (albeit they are still a tiny segment of the market):

Quote from: Some online news site
The low emission vehicle segment also experienced its first drop in demand in more than two years, trade body SMMT said.

But while sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles fell more than 50 per cent last month compared to June 2018, following the removal of government grants last year, sales of battery EVs shot up more than 61 per cent, making it one of the few segments of the UK car market to enjoy demand growth.

Overall, battery EV sales have soared by 60.3 per cent over the first half of 2019 compared to the same period last year, with British motorists registering almost 12,000 new EVs over the past six months. In comparison, just under 7,500 new EV sales were registered in the first half of 2018.

Talking of cost, our gawd awful payroll providers have finally straightened my payslips out so I can see the impact of having my milk float. 77 a week all in, including insurance, tyres, servicing, oh and my free electricity from work  8). That compares to 63 a week in diesel alone in the Ovlov. If I were paying for my own electric, it would be costing me somewhere around 99 per week.

Jimmy......we at OOF only want to hear about your milk float if......

1......It breaks down and you are left stranded in the pissing rain with a flat battery.
2......It catches fire.
3......It does both of the above. ;) :D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 18:55:21

Talking of cost, our gawd awful payroll providers have finally straightened my payslips out so I can see the impact of having my milk float. 77 a week all in, including insurance, tyres, servicing, oh and my free electricity from work  8). That compares to 63 a week in diesel alone in the Ovlov. If I were paying for my own electric, it would be costing me somewhere around 99 per week.
if work where giving you "all the petrol you can drink" for free , would you be driving an EV  ::)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 18:59:16


Jimmy......we at OOF only want to hear about your milk float if......

1......It breaks down and you are left stranded in the pissing rain with a flat battery.
2......It catches fire.
3......It does both of the above. ;) :D

excellent post Opti   :y   :D   ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 04 July 2019, 19:20:40
if work where giving you "all the petrol you can drink" for free , would you be driving an EV  ::)

They would, if I let them. I can have a petrol car and a fuel card any time I want. But I get the hump with my tax bill as it is, without adding 8-900 to its monthly total.  :o

I'm not arguing that EV is a good solution for everyone, any more than a 20yr old rusty luxo barge from a budget manufacturer is. But there's too many on here and elsewhere that argue against them on principle, from a position of limited knowledge and often no experience.

On your point re. Electricity Generation. I agree there isn't much spare peak capacity, but that's not at all the same as total generating capacity. You can drive a lot of behaviour via dynamic pricing. For example, if you made petrol 30p/litre cheaper between 11pm and 6am, you'd probably never see a queue at a petrol station again. The same will happen with electricity, dynamic pricing/billing to balance demand. Supplemented by vehicle to grid technology. The concept has already been proved out in Norway and Japan, once again though, we're letting the world pass us by.

Rule Britannia my ar$e  ::)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 04 July 2019, 19:22:13
Actually I've been showing 'interest' in the Tesla 3 Performance.

Nippy little 'appliance' devoid of soul and passion but it least it seems to have a reasonable range (at least for a year or two before the batteries drop to 50% or so)

My next car, if the next 3yrs at work treat me well enough  :y
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 19:25:20
if work where giving you "all the petrol you can drink" for free , would you be driving an EV  ::)

They would, if I let them. I can have a petrol car and a fuel card any time I want. But I get the hump with my tax bill as it is, without adding 8-900 to its monthly total.  :o

I'm not arguing that EV is a good solution for everyone, any more than a 20yr old rusty luxo barge from a budget manufacturer is. But there's too many on here and elsewhere that argue against them on principle, from a position of limited knowledge and often no experience.

On your point re. Electricity Generation. I agree there isn't much spare peak capacity, but that's not at all the same as total generating capacity. You can drive a lot of behaviour via dynamic pricing. For example, if you made petrol 30p/litre cheaper between 11pm and 6am, you'd probably never see a queue at a petrol station again. The same will happen with electricity, dynamic pricing/billing to balance demand. Supplemented by vehicle to grid technology. The concept has already been proved out in Norway and Japan, once again though, we're letting the world pass us by.

Rule Britannia my ar$e  ::)
Except every night between 11pm and 6am.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 04 July 2019, 19:27:10
Except there's plenty who wouldn't 'get out of bed' to save 10 per tank.

Admittedly none of them inhabit this forum  ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 04 July 2019, 19:30:12
if work where giving you "all the petrol you can drink" for free , would you be driving an EV  ::)

They would, if I let them. I can have a petrol car and a fuel card any time I want. But I get the hump with my tax bill as it is, without adding 8-900 to its monthly total.  :o

I'm not arguing that EV is a good solution for everyone, any more than a 20yr old rusty luxo barge from a budget manufacturer is. But there's too many on here and elsewhere that argue against them on principle, from a position of limited knowledge and often no experience.

On your point re. Electricity Generation. I agree there isn't much spare peak capacity, but that's not at all the same as total generating capacity. You can drive a lot of behaviour via dynamic pricing. For example, if you made petrol 30p/litre cheaper between 11pm and 6am, you'd probably never see a queue at a petrol station again. The same will happen with electricity, dynamic pricing/billing to balance demand. Supplemented by vehicle to grid technology. The concept has already been proved out in Norway and Japan, once again though, we're letting the world pass us by.

Rule Britannia my ar$e  ::)
Except every night between 11pm and 6am.

Yep. I imagine many night birds and shift workers would take advantage of such a generous offer. Some supermarkets believe there to be enough 'nocturnal' trade to remain open 24/7.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 19:32:47
Except there's plenty who wouldn't 'get out of bed' to save 10 per tank.

Admittedly none of them inhabit this forum  ;D
I see your point, but electricity is different to car fuel. People/companies have no choice but to use and, therefore, buy electricity during the day, so your idea is sound. I, unfortunately, have nowhere to put a charging point, and I wouldn't rely on public ones.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 04 July 2019, 19:33:55
if work where giving you "all the petrol you can drink" for free , would you be driving an EV  ::)

They would, if I let them. I can have a petrol car and a fuel card any time I want. But I get the hump with my tax bill as it is, without adding 8-900 to its monthly total.  :o

I'm not arguing that EV is a good solution for everyone, any more than a 20yr old rusty luxo barge from a budget manufacturer is. But there's too many on here and elsewhere that argue against them on principle, from a position of limited knowledge and often no experience.

On your point re. Electricity Generation. I agree there isn't much spare peak capacity, but that's not at all the same as total generating capacity. You can drive a lot of behaviour via dynamic pricing. For example, if you made petrol 30p/litre cheaper between 11pm and 6am, you'd probably never see a queue at a petrol station again. The same will happen with electricity, dynamic pricing/billing to balance demand. Supplemented by vehicle to grid technology. The concept has already been proved out in Norway and Japan, once again though, we're letting the world pass us by.

Rule Britannia my ar$e  ::)
Except every night between 11pm and 6am.

Yep. I imagine many night birds and shift workers would take advantage of such a generous offer. Some supermarkets believe there to be enough 'nocturnal' trade to remain open 24/7.
They don't pay many staff, though, they use the serve-yourself pay points.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 04 July 2019, 19:36:33
Actually I've been showing 'interest' in the Tesla 3 Performance.

Nippy little 'appliance' devoid of soul and passion but it least it seems to have a reasonable range (at least for a year or two before the batteries drop to 50% or so)

My next car, if the next 3yrs at work treat me well enough  :y

In profile it looks good. Handsome and well formed. Front on it has a 'village idiot' smile which is not really appropriate for a 'performance car'.

Build quality........about as good as American cars. :-\
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 19:42:36
Except there's plenty who wouldn't 'get out of bed' to save 10 per tank.

Admittedly none of them inhabit this forum  ;D
I see your point, but electricity is different to car fuel. People/companies have no choice but to use and, therefore, buy electricity during the day, so your idea is sound. I, unfortunately, have nowhere to put a charging point, and I wouldn't rely on public ones.
if you did have somewhere for a charging point, is your supply cut out and DNO cable big enough  :-\

not to worry though , I'm sure every road in the uk will be dug up in the next few years installing new cables ready for are increasing electrical demand  ::)
many cut outs are getting stealth down rated from 100a or 80a to 60a as part of smart meter fitting etc
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 04 July 2019, 19:54:03
I love my current gas guzzler and that is why I keep her.

But, almost all of us is talking about this subject in 2019.  The Government, with some critism that they are not doing it all fast enough, is talking about no new petrol or diesel vehicles after......... wait for it.........2040

Now that is 21 years away, which means a lot will happen before then to resolve any issues about electric or other non-fossil fuel vehicles. Power supplies, charging points, and any other difficulties will not exist in 2040, if not before as it will all be resolved.

Our current cars will be almost totally life expired and either recycled or in a collection. By progression the motor vehicle will naturally change as the younger generations take over, just as 4 star, leaded fuelled vehicles so quickly disappeared, were converted to unleaded, or were scrapped.

That is what happens as new technology evolves, just like when the horse and cart disappeared and the motoring infrastructure we know today developed.

Let us, of advancing years, not get too worked up about it. It will all be ok 'on the day' ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 04 July 2019, 19:54:41
if work where giving you "all the petrol you can drink" for free , would you be driving an EV  ::)

They would, if I let them. I can have a petrol car and a fuel card any time I want. But I get the hump with my tax bill as it is, without adding 8-900 to its monthly total.  :o

I'm not arguing that EV is a good solution for everyone, any more than a 20yr old rusty luxo barge from a budget manufacturer is. But there's too many on here and elsewhere that argue against them on principle, from a position of limited knowledge and often no experience.

On your point re. Electricity Generation. I agree there isn't much spare peak capacity, but that's not at all the same as total generating capacity. You can drive a lot of behaviour via dynamic pricing. For example, if you made petrol 30p/litre cheaper between 11pm and 6am, you'd probably never see a queue at a petrol station again. The same will happen with electricity, dynamic pricing/billing to balance demand. Supplemented by vehicle to grid technology. The concept has already been proved out in Norway and Japan, once again though, we're letting the world pass us by.

Rule Britannia my ar$e  ::)
Except every night between 11pm and 6am.

Yep. I imagine many night birds and shift workers would take advantage of such a generous offer. Some supermarkets believe there to be enough 'nocturnal' trade to remain open 24/7.
Not quite. In fact they figured that whilst they are paying both to keep the lights on for to people to stack the shelves and those people over night, they might as well keep the doors open and get some money back from all the people who only get to the shops at 2 am ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 20:05:43
I love my current gas guzzler and that is why I keep her.

But, almost all of us is talking about this subject in 2019.  The Government, with some critism that they are not doing it all fast enough, is talking about no new petrol or diesel vehicles after......... wait for it.........2040

Now that is 21 years away, which means a lot will happen before then to resolve any issues about electric or other non-fossil fuel vehicles. Power supplies, charging points, and any other difficulties will not exist in 2040, if not before as it will all be resolved.

Our current cars will be almost totally life expired and either recycled or in a collection. By progression the motor vehicle will naturally change as the younger generations take over, just as 4 star, leaded fuelled vehicles so quickly disappeared, were converted to unleaded, or were scrapped.

That is what happens as new technology evolves, just like when the horse and cart disappeared and the motoring infrastructure we know today developed.

Let us, of advancing years, not get too worked up about it. It will all be ok 'on the day' ;)
:o :o
Lizzie removed from Christmas card list  :(

IF the government start now (which they won't) , they might have most of the infrastructure in place by 2040
disruption in the interim will be horrendous 
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 04 July 2019, 20:19:06
I love my current gas guzzler and that is why I keep her.

But, almost all of us is talking about this subject in 2019.  The Government, with some critism that they are not doing it all fast enough, is talking about no new petrol or diesel vehicles after......... wait for it.........2040

Now that is 21 years away, which means a lot will happen before then to resolve any issues about electric or other non-fossil fuel vehicles. Power supplies, charging points, and any other difficulties will not exist in 2040, if not before as it will all be resolved.

Our current cars will be almost totally life expired and either recycled or in a collection. By progression the motor vehicle will naturally change as the younger generations take over, just as 4 star, leaded fuelled vehicles so quickly disappeared, were converted to unleaded, or were scrapped.

That is what happens as new technology evolves, just like when the horse and cart disappeared and the motoring infrastructure we know today developed.

Let us, of advancing years, not get too worked up about it. It will all be ok 'on the day' ;)
:o :o
Lizzie removed from Christmas card list  :(

IF the government start now (which they won't) , they might have most of the infrastructure in place by 2040
disruption in the interim will be horrendous

Ah, i said "us of advancing years Dave, so I was keeping you and the other youngsters out of that description :D :D ;)

It will also not be the government. It will be the private sector that will do it all for the profits they believe are up for grabs. It was the same for the railways, with private investors being pursuaded (conned) to sink their money into the new technology. ::) :D

Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 20:20:42
I can't read your reply Lizzie with all these tears in my eyes  :'(
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 04 July 2019, 20:25:43
I can't read your reply Lizzie with all these tears in my eyes  :'(

Ahhhhh, that's so sad :'( :'( :-*
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 04 July 2019, 20:41:30
I love my current gas guzzler and that is why I keep her.

But, almost all of us is talking about this subject in 2019.  The Government, with some critism that they are not doing it all fast enough, is talking about no new petrol or diesel vehicles after......... wait for it.........2040

Now that is 21 years away, which means a lot will happen before then to resolve any issues about electric or other non-fossil fuel vehicles. Power supplies, charging points, and any other difficulties will not exist in 2040, if not before as it will all be resolved.

Our current cars will be almost totally life expired and either recycled or in a collection. By progression the motor vehicle will naturally change as the younger generations take over, just as 4 star, leaded fuelled vehicles so quickly disappeared, were converted to unleaded, or were scrapped.

That is what happens as new technology evolves, just like when the horse and cart disappeared and the motoring infrastructure we know today developed.

Let us, of advancing years, not get too worked up about it. It will all be ok 'on the day' ;)
:o :o
Lizzie removed from Christmas card list  :(

IF the government start now (which they won't) , they might have most of the infrastructure in place by 2040
disruption in the interim will be horrendous

Ah, i said "us of advancing years Dave, so I was keeping you and the other youngsters out of that description :D :D ;)

It will also not be the government. It will be the private sector that will do it all for the profits they believe are up for grabs. It was the same for the railways, with private investors being pursuaded (conned) to sink their money into the new technology. ::) :D
It's the government that needs to pay millions on reports and commissions and feasibility studies to start the ball rolling and find investors to pay for what will be the biggest overhaul of "our electrics" since Victorian times 
this should have been done and British investors in place  ;D :D
personally , i think water,electric gas and public transport should be nationalized again ,but run better/properly obviously  ::)

I can't read your reply Lizzie with all these tears in my eyes  :'(

Ahhhhh, that's so sad :'( :'( :-*


3 rolls of andrex later ......
so not us young OOFers then  :)



Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 04 July 2019, 23:21:09
I love my current gas guzzler and that is why I keep her.

But, almost all of us is talking about this subject in 2019.  The Government, with some critism that they are not doing it all fast enough, is talking about no new petrol or diesel vehicles after......... wait for it.........2040

Now that is 21 years away, which means a lot will happen before then to resolve any issues about electric or other non-fossil fuel vehicles. Power supplies, charging points, and any other difficulties will not exist in 2040, if not before as it will all be resolved.

Our current cars will be almost totally life expired and either recycled or in a collection. By progression the motor vehicle will naturally change as the younger generations take over, just as 4 star, leaded fuelled vehicles so quickly disappeared, were converted to unleaded, or were scrapped.

That is what happens as new technology evolves, just like when the horse and cart disappeared and the motoring infrastructure we know today developed.

Let us, of advancing years, not get too worked up about it. It will all be ok 'on the day' ;)
:o :o
Lizzie removed from Christmas card list  :(

IF the government start now (which they won't) , they might have most of the infrastructure in place by 2040
disruption in the interim will be horrendous

Ah, i said "us of advancing years Dave, so I was keeping you and the other youngsters out of that description :D :D ;)

It will also not be the government. It will be the private sector that will do it all for the profits they believe are up for grabs. It was the same for the railways, with private investors being pursuaded (conned) to sink their money into the new technology. ::) :D
It's the government that needs to pay millions on reports and commissions and feasibility studies to start the ball rolling and find investors to pay for what will be the biggest overhaul of "our electrics" since Victorian times 
this should have been done and British investors in place  ;D :D
personally , i think water,electric gas and public transport should be nationalized again ,but run better/properly obviously  ::)

I can't read your reply Lizzie with all these tears in my eyes  :'(

Ahhhhh, that's so sad :'( :'( :-*


3 rolls of andrex later ......
so not us young OOFers then  :)

Nope! :-* :-*  :D :D ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Rods2 on 04 July 2019, 23:34:02
How does that compare to the sales of normal cars?

I suspect that we're barely a couple of years from another global economic meltdown  :-\

Lots of negative figures suggest about a 6 month lead in time to the next recession. Trump's trade wars are one of a number of factors with uncertainty holding back investment. US freight levels & revenues show that their economy is slowing down. This has been an unusually long economic cycle. EU is in much worse shape where they are already having an economic slowdown from QE stopping but ZRIP & NRIP continuing. The failure beyond using smoke & mirrors to pretend non-performing bank loans are perform & will be paid back ;D ;D ;D is going to hit EU banks hard, just don't mention the war or Deutsche Bank. ::) ::) ::) We need to be out of the EU on 31/10 with no deal or an outline WTO Article XXIV FTA so zero tariffs for both sides apply as May's surrender document makes us liable for up to 1tn in joint Eurozone bailout funds for up to 10 years after we leave. >:( >:( >:( If we get caught for this it will massively increase UK sovereign debt & probably higher long term interest rates. :( :( :(
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Rods2 on 05 July 2019, 00:26:32
Google as Google does put a group of committed greens & engineering PHDs together as an incubator to plan & execute Google's green renewables future & new income streams. After 5 years the division has closed as their conclusion was that renewables can never ever be made to work without the current fossil fuel power generation being in place 24/7 as backup with many plants just sitting on idle to chime in at a moments notice to keep grid stability due to the intermittent nature of renewables. Some of their other conclusions were:

1. Not enough global cobalt reserves.
2. Society has progressed from wood to coal to oil & gas & finally nuclear with ever increasing power densities & lowering of costs. Renewables are a regression from this & battery backup in the quantities required is a non-starter in terms of natural resources, cost & numbers.
3. The only viable route if you want to reduce CO2 (although god knows IMO why you would possibly want to stop this most welcome survival of plants & multi-cellular life saving CO2 correction over a complete carbon cycle) then nuclear fusion & fission is the only way forward & if you look at the number of nuclear power station deaths they are a fraction of those of miners & without all these OTT safety systems electricity really would be too cheap to bother metering.

Lot of these green fantasies are now going to hit the cold light of reality, so make a choice, follow the green fantasies, deindustrialise & regress back to the middle ages, their lifestyles & lifespans or accept what is doable as we continue to advance society & civilization. If you look at what progress we have made in the last 200 years in terms of knowledge, innovation, energy efficiency & reducing pollution, what can we achieve in the next 200?
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: dave the builder on 05 July 2019, 00:55:45
One little battery (288 Megawatt /hour) that works ,and has been working for over 30 years is Electric Mountain (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station)   8)
that's even better than Duracel heavy duty  ;D
and you don't need to throw it in the bin after a few years and make another

using solar cells on everyone's roof to charge the battery in cars ,to then run our houses is a novel idea but I don't think that will be in place in time for 2040

Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 05 July 2019, 10:42:40
1. Not enough global cobalt reserves.
2. Society has progressed from wood to coal to oil & gas & finally nuclear with ever increasing power densities & lowering of costs. Renewables are a regression from this & battery backup in the quantities required is a non-starter in terms of natural resources, cost & numbers.
3. The only viable route if you want to reduce CO2 (although god knows IMO why you would possibly want to stop this most welcome survival of plants & multi-cellular life saving CO2 correction over a complete carbon cycle) then nuclear fusion & fission is the only way forward & if you look at the number of nuclear power station deaths they are a fraction of those of miners & without all these OTT safety systems electricity really would be too cheap to bother metering.

Any link to these conclusions, as they seem to run contra to Google's own white paper on renewables? (Link below). The white paper states that they are moving towards 24/7 use of renewable energy (without fossil backup) and calls out grid level energy storage as one of the solutions that will support this.
https://storage.googleapis.com/gweb-environment.appspot.com/pdf/achieving-100-renewable-energy-purchasing-goal.pdf (https://storage.googleapis.com/gweb-environment.appspot.com/pdf/achieving-100-renewable-energy-purchasing-goal.pdf)

Re. cobalt, my understanding is that demand will outstrip supply leading to a depletion of existing reserves in c16yrs, but this is only about 10% of the available cobalt, the rest just isn't economically viable to extract *yet*. However, as the demand/supply imbalance increases, I have every confidence that what's 'economically viable' will shift, as it always does.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 07 July 2019, 10:33:37
Most segments of the UK economy have been in recession since 2016.  This is clearly visible when you walk down the high street, nobody is spending.  And online is only taking a 5th of the deficit of pre 2016.

Sad fact of life, and entirely predictable.


The high street is a good indicator, as it aligns with disposable income available in households.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 11:54:29
Most segments of the UK economy have been in recession since 2016.  This is clearly visible when you walk down the high street, nobody is spending.  And online is only taking a 5th of the deficit of pre 2016.

Sad fact of life, and entirely predictable.


The high street is a good indicator, as it aligns with disposable income available in households.

No, sorry TB, that is not the full story.  Out of town shopping centres, high parking charges, and, the big one, online business, has been the crippling factor behind the high street decline, and indeed in retail units generally. ;)

In 2018 alone over 2,500 retail shops closed in the top 500 high streets in the country.  Anymore disposable income aavailable, which yes has been hit, would have no doubt gone into the high street competitors as described.  Shopping habits have changed, and thanks to your industry, it will change even more!! ::) ::) ;D ;D ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 07 July 2019, 12:14:26
That and the crippling business rates for high St. shops, which are needed to fund the index linked pensions of the local council dignitaries  and their buddys, who are well and truly hitched to the gravy train.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 12:28:43
That and the crippling business rates for high St. shops, which are needed to fund the index linked pensions of the local council dignitaries  and their buddys, who are well and truly hitched to the gravy train.


Very true, that as well which is not applying to the onliners!! >:(

Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 12:29:43
We shall see the demise of the high street as we know it today in 10 years unless WE want it to be different!! ::) ::) ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 13:33:43
I would add that our town of Ashford, a massively growing kentish town with building everywhere. and I mean everywhere, and a International railway station, is a great example of what is happening to the high streets.

The out of town Sainsbury's has taken in store Argos, Timpson and Specsavers, with the former two closing stores in the town.  Marks & Spencer have closed their store, with a new M&S Food Hall opening alongside, albeit 500 yds away from, the Sainsbury's store.  Debenhams which is a purpose built, just 7 year old massive store, will close in 2020.  Aldi have opened a store alongside the new Curious Brewery and facilities away from the old high street.

That is just some of those that have closed, or are about to close. This is happening as the famous out of town, McArthurGlen Designer Outlet Centre expands by 50 units!

Two years back another out of town centre opened to accommodate B&M, Tapi Carpets, Hobbycraft, Costa Coffee, alongside the existing TK Max, Dunelm, Boots, Smyths and Argos, alongside a separate Wickes, which all now having the massive and new Junction 10A of the M20 built on their doorstep.

We have also B&Q, PC World, Pets At Home, Halfords, and Dreams in other, away from the high street, centres.

So, that is just how one town, with a population growing from 118,000 in 2011 to 141,000 in 2021, which in the 1980's had grown to 87,000, is going.  The lovely, nationally known pedestrian, friendly,  free space high street which has seen it's own developments with yet another cinema complex and more coffee shops along with restaurants, is metophising probably more than most, but showing the way forward.  High streets for leisure, banking and estate agents, along with coffee shops / restaurants, and little else. :(
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 07 July 2019, 14:17:46
One big advantage of out of town shopping centres is parking. It isn't possible to park on a high street nowadays without incurring a hefty fine. You have to park in a car park, pay through the nose for the privilege and walk to the shops.
Everything is stacked against retailers on the High St.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 14:28:17
One big advantage of out of town shopping centres is parking. It isn't possible to park on a high street nowadays without incurring a hefty fine. You have to park in a car park, pay through the nose for the privilege and walk to the shops.
Everything is stacked against retailers on the High St.

That, as I say, is a major obstacle for the high streets to overcome now, but the greedy councils who subsidise other services with those charges, knowing motorists are easy money,  are not backing down.

In Ashford it is true and honest to say that at least the council owned multi-storey car park and one other has free parking after 1500 on weekdays and weekends, and are free on Bank Holidays.  So they have listened in part, but still the NCP car parks, that the council take a cut out of the charges, do charge all the time, handsomely!! >:( >:(

Even the away from the high street Asda and McArthur Outlet Centre HAVE to charge for parking because the council dictate they do to match the cost of parking 'in town'!  At least Asda pays you the parking fee back if you spend 5 with them! ::) ::)

Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 07 July 2019, 14:57:18
No, sorry TB, that is not the full story.  Out of town shopping centres, high parking charges, and, the big one, online business, has been the crippling factor behind the high street decline, and indeed in retail units generally. ;)
Online has had 3 parts of zero impact. That stats clearly show that online sales growth has nowhere near filled the drop in bricks&mortar sales. Its about 20% of the deficit in sales from 3 years ago.

By "high street" I was being lazy, and was referring to old high streets, big shopping centres and retail parks. Mainly because I hate the term bricks and mortar  :-[. Although explicitly leaving out "essentials" shops like grocers.

As MigV6 points out, business rates are unrealistic, but also rents are.  They were manageable even a small number of years back, but footfall has fallen off a cliff, and add to that that footfall to sales ratio has dropped dramatically.  Without sales, these (ridiculously high - but local governments and landlords are greedy) rates and rents will send companies under. No matter what size.  Its well known that after Debenhams go, John Lewis is next. Around 1000 shops a week are closing.

Essentially, sales have reduced because of 2 categories of people:

1) The majority - Those that simply have significantly less disposable income now than a few years ago, once bills are paid and food is put on the table.
2) Those that live far more comfortably, but in this period of uncertainty*, are putting it to one side for a rainy day.

Go to the once thriving retail park in Banburyshire where Maplins used to be (cant remember the name of it), and its dead easy to park, as the carpark is near empty, even on a Saturday. Banbury's indoor Shopping Centre (Castle Quays?) is also easy to park and walk around in, gone are the days it was that busy on a Saturday, just getting from one end to the other was a challenge. And its traditional high street is like most others now, just charity shops and coffee houses.




*not just Brexit, but a realisation that the decade or so of very cheap mortgages and loans are coming to an end
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 07 July 2019, 15:49:05
Its a different story around here at out of town retail parks. They are always jammed with cars and people, and the local Sainsburys, which is huge, is the same story. Colchester town centre is definitely dying though, despite the fact that according to the press, Colchester is the fastest growing town in the country, which imo, is not a good thing.
Rush hour around the area isn't much better than London.
I try to avoid Colchester and the areas 3 to 4 miles around it if I can, but the problem is swmbo loves it, because theres lots of shops.  ::) ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 15:55:13
No, sorry TB, that is not the full story.  Out of town shopping centres, high parking charges, and, the big one, online business, has been the crippling factor behind the high street decline, and indeed in retail units generally. ;)
Online has had 3 parts of zero impact. That stats clearly show that online sales growth has nowhere near filled the drop in bricks&mortar sales. Its about 20% of the deficit in sales from 3 years ago.

By "high street" I was being lazy, and was referring to old high streets, big shopping centres and retail parks. Mainly because I hate the term bricks and mortar  :-[. Although explicitly leaving out "essentials" shops like grocers.

As MigV6 points out, business rates are unrealistic, but also rents are.  They were manageable even a small number of years back, but footfall has fallen off a cliff, and add to that that footfall to sales ratio has dropped dramatically.  Without sales, these (ridiculously high - but local governments and landlords are greedy) rates and rents will send companies under. No matter what size.  Its well known that after Debenhams go, John Lewis is next. Around 1000 shops a week are closing.

Essentially, sales have reduced because of 2 categories of people:

1) The majority - Those that simply have significantly less disposable income now than a few years ago, once bills are paid and food is put on the table.
2) Those that live far more comfortably, but in this period of uncertainty*, are putting it to one side for a rainy day.

Go to the once thriving retail park in Banburyshire where Maplins used to be (cant remember the name of it), and its dead easy to park, as the carpark is near empty, even on a Saturday. Banbury's indoor Shopping Centre (Castle Quays?) is also easy to park and walk around in, gone are the days it was that busy on a Saturday, just getting from one end to the other was a challenge. And its traditional high street is like most others now, just charity shops and coffee houses.

*not just Brexit, but a realisation that the decade or so of very cheap mortgages and loans are coming to an end

Unfortunately everything IS affecting sales TB, but when you do have a steady rise in online business then the growth percentages that a bricks and mortar shop requires to stay viable hurts, and hurts very badly. 

That is what has mainly hurt the big stores as they can longer justify, and keep that essential viability going, with huge square footage of space that requires staffing, stocking, heating and lighting, let alone the usual 5 year cycle of replenishment of fixtures and fittings. That is what has meant the stores are closing and will continue to close as the growth in business is not there for those retailers to even give any indication of hope to them that the market will change, regardless of how much disposable income is available.  Any retail growth will, I repeat, come in the form of online business.

Just take myself, a loyal retailer believing in shops.  I have spent over the last few days 100 online with ebay and Amazon, on goods I would have purchased even 3 years ago from the likes of Halfords or the like.  My grocery shopping is still with Sainsbury's as the online offer does not suit me, at present.  But crucially so much else, even with the bricks and mortar retailers, is more and more being ordered and purchased online byme, as it is with millions of others.  That is why the likes of M&S have suffered so much as their online presence was slow to take off.  But, even with the online business your range and prices, which has been a failing of M&S for some years, is still absolutely crucial, in store or online.  The online businesses in particular has been very good at quickly meeting competitors offers and winning extra custom, but it is still true in the retail business that if that offer fails you will decline.  With online 'stores' which can be multi-million pound businesses or independent traders, popping up so easily and customers finding it so straightforward to find them online, without even leaving the home (their trump card) then they are going to win.  They are the future.

Just to emphasis what I mean in terms of online business affecting the bricks and mortar stores, not then just the high street as you first stated, please see the following:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi

It shows that the percentage of online business in the whole of the retail sector rose to a impressive 21.6%, and only recently dipped to 18.6%. although you can see, in spite of the "difficult trading conditions" for all, the TREND is constantly upwards.

Believe me, if you are a bricks and mortar retail business manager operating at the highest level as I was, these figures would give me nightmares because, as I stated before, they mean your very future life blood, growth, has gone.  Indeed, on those figures you may well not keep your retail units afloat.  Hence the big name store closures we have already seen.

Even if disposable income increases to the levels previously seen, it will be in the pockets of the younger generations. They are the very ones who will stoke the online retail business and increase brick and mortar store closures.  This is what Board of Directors of high street and elsewhere chains have come to recognise, with the only action open to them taking place. Closures and massive staff redundancies, if they are lucky! :'( :'(

Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 15:59:58
..........................and, as for landlords cutting rents; that is only a short term measure, a bandage over a massive hemorrhage.  It is not viable for landlords to only receive very small rents in for massive areas of square footage that they own.  You will see an increasing level of "change of use" or complete demolition of those buildings as they look towards other viable uses for the buildings or land; in other words the housing we so desperately require in this country. ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 07 July 2019, 16:51:27
Most of the office space in Horsham is being turned into flats. Unfortunately, because this process is relatively expensive, so are the flats ::)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 16:53:39
Most of the office space in Horsham is being turned into flats. Unfortunately, because this process is relatively expensive, so are the flats ::)

Yes and the fact they will usually be located in the centre of towns, many very major ones, then the prices will be high.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 07 July 2019, 16:59:36
Horsham? Major? I don't think so...  ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 17:29:31
Horsham? Major? I don't think so...  ;D

No, not Horsham, never Horsham!! :o :o ;D ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 07 July 2019, 18:27:12
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 07 July 2019, 19:31:10
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)

I believe TB has a plan. :)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 19:33:25
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)

I believe TB has a plan. :)

If you watched Years and Years there is always one solution, but even for me that is far, far, too right wing! :o :o :o :o
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Sir Tigger QC on 07 July 2019, 19:39:52
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)

I believe TB has a plan. :)

I have a plan.  :)

It seems that all the lefty remainer types are convinced that that nice Mr Farage is a horrible fascist.  ::)

So if we all vote for the Brexit Party at the next election and he becomes our PM in the autumn, maybe they'll all leave in droves!  :y
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 07 July 2019, 19:46:49
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)

I believe TB has a plan. :)


I have a plan.  :)

It seems that all the lefty remainer types are convinced that that nice Mr Farage is a horrible fascist.  ::)

So if we all vote for the Brexit Party at the next election and he becomes our PM in the autumn, maybe they'll all leave in droves!  :y

Just give them all a Jaguar if they go to live in mainland Europe.

In fact that would be attractive to me, as it would resolve all current issues with the Omega :D :D ;)

There, I have put this thread back on track! :o :o ;D ;D ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 07 July 2019, 20:25:05
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)

I believe TB has a plan. :)

I have a plan.  :)

It seems that all the lefty remainer types are convinced that that nice Mr Farage is a horrible fascist.  ::)

So if we all vote for the Brexit Party at the next election and he becomes our PM in the autumn, maybe they'll all leave in droves!  :y
Or he will prove them correct... Either way, they won't be here anymore ::)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 08 July 2019, 18:32:45
Even if disposable income increases to the levels previously seen, it will be in the pockets of the younger generations.
But its not looking like increasing for the foreseeable future.  And that's why small retailers can't get business loans from the bank to see them over, and large retailers are really struggling to get anyone to invest.

Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 08 July 2019, 18:34:07
We don't desperately need lots more houses in this country. We desperately need less people.  ;)
Ain't that the truth.  We are hugely overpopulated, and the population needs thinning out a fair bit.  I'm thinking in the order of 2/3rds minimum.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 08 July 2019, 18:40:47
Even if disposable income increases to the levels previously seen, it will be in the pockets of the younger generations.
But its not looking like increasing for the foreseeable future.  And that's why small retailers can't get business loans from the bank to see them over, and large retailers are really struggling to get anyone to invest.

Would you hand out a loan to a small retail shop selling the usual fare given the current market conditions and what any business plan could allow for over the next 5 years? :-\ :-\

Not even the big boys can now easily get them.

But there is always Brexit to give everything a boost...................................!! ::) ::) :-X
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 08 July 2019, 19:00:50
Even if disposable income increases to the levels previously seen, it will be in the pockets of the younger generations.
But its not looking like increasing for the foreseeable future.  And that's why small retailers can't get business loans from the bank to see them over, and large retailers are really struggling to get anyone to invest.

Would you hand out a loan to a small retail shop selling the usual fare given the current market conditions and what any business plan could allow for over the next 5 years? :-\ :-\

Not even the big boys can now easily get them.

But there is always Brexit to give everything a boost...................................!! ::) ::) :-X
I think if you could show a viable plan, even if it was going to take more than 5yrs, you'd get a bank to back you if the plan was sound.

But this one looks set for a generation.  And one day, online might become viable for everyday (non grocery) shopping for everything. But I suspect only when walk-in shops are no more, and when they can charge proper postage (both ways) and a return fee (which needs a law change, but that will happen).


Bro was able to pre-empt all this - its been on the cards for well over a decade - by buying all the freeholds to his, which keeps greedy landlords at bay.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 08 July 2019, 20:01:02
I don't think shops will ever completely die out unless women do as well. They love to go to shops, look at things, feel the fabric etc. try things on, compare them with other things of different shapes and colours etc, then get incredibly happy when they walk out of the shop with a bag full of things. ::)
Tinternet cant replace that.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 08 July 2019, 20:08:54
Even if disposable income increases to the levels previously seen, it will be in the pockets of the younger generations.
But its not looking like increasing for the foreseeable future.  And that's why small retailers can't get business loans from the bank to see them over, and large retailers are really struggling to get anyone to invest.

Would you hand out a loan to a small retail shop selling the usual fare given the current market conditions and what any business plan could allow for over the next 5 years? :-\ :-\

Not even the big boys can now easily get them.

But there is always Brexit to give everything a boost...................................!! ::) ::) :-X
I think if you could show a viable plan, even if it was going to take more than 5yrs, you'd get a bank to back you if the plan was sound.

But this one looks set for a generation.  And one day, online might become viable for everyday (non grocery) shopping for everything. But I suspect only when walk-in shops are no more, and when they can charge proper postage (both ways) and a return fee (which needs a law change, but that will happen).


Bro was able to pre-empt all this - its been on the cards for well over a decade - by buying all the freeholds to his, which keeps greedy landlords at bay.

But that means huge amounts of capital are tied up in bricks and mortar, not being invested in trading requirements. It also means any retail business that does also has to take the full costs of maintaining those buildings, which can be avoided if a sound lease is negotiated properly.

Many retail companies, including the one I was part of for 28 years had in excess of 1,000 units, and like most in our field decided to sell all free holds to recoup the capital and re-invest it in our core business, which like most in the major retail field, is not running a property empire.

 That extra boost of funds gave the means to acquire other retail companies, as well as constantly updating our street presence. It also meant that when a store became non-viable, at the end of the lease, we walked away without costs apart from stripping the unit. That means the company has flexibility to act quickly when necessary. In addition it also results in a freedom away from the property game whereby commercial property can depreciate with the local area and market forces. One reason why landlords are, albeit temporarily, agreeing to reduced rents, is that they know how their property will devalue with so many huge stores going onto the market together. There will also be tax implications on capital gains when, or if, you can sell. Even small units are going down in value as so many are empty, on the market together, often in now poor locations. That is why charity shops have been taking them on, but even then they cannot make them pay. Demolition of the surplus shops will release valuable land, but that redevelopment is costly and usually a game for the major developers, who may reap the rewards in due course.

However, owning or not your bricks and mortar does not change the business rates you pay, does not increase customer footfall, or assist your offer to customers. It does not tackle the underlying reasons for sales decline, which are now numerous and, for many, proving to be over whelming.

Online businesses have none of those difficulties that apply to bricks and mortar units. They can be totally flexible to meet trading conditions, and of course are not paying currently those high business rates. A different retail game altogether, which will grow and business plans are reflecting that, and with low start up costs to boot, it is far easier to get big fast.

The traditional retailer currently is now having to face business plans that have to predict lower footfall, higher costs, less complimentary traders around them, and higher product prices as their buying power declines, with suppliers more likely to work on attracting traders who are growing and with a brighter, financial, trading future. It is all going one way, and will in our lifetimes. ;)



Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 08 July 2019, 20:15:48
I don't think shops will ever completely die out unless women do as well. They love to go to shops, look at things, feel the fabric etc. try things on, compare them with other things of different shapes and colours etc, then get incredibly happy when they walk out of the shop with a bag full of things. ::)
Tinternet cant replace that.

That is us older women. The new ladies are far more inclined to buy online as that is an enjoyment in itself, with prices to assist that process. They may go to the traditional shops to look, feel, try on, but then not buy, but going online for the cheaper offer from a wider range.  That is why most of the online people have done so well, but just like traditional retailers, if you get your offer wrong you will be hit with declining sales, loss of profit, which has resulted in casualties as with any business ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Viral_Jim on 08 July 2019, 22:57:33

Bro was able to pre-empt all this - its been on the cards for well over a decade - by buying all the freeholds to his, which keeps greedy landlords at bay.

This is pretty crucial, and it would certainly be on my list of must-haves if I were to run my own business (although I'm not smart/driven enough to make something like that work). To give 2 eal life examples. Firstly Where I work, there's in excess of 2,000 commercial units, the majority of which are freehold. Secondly, my parent's best friends own an estate agents in the south east with about 10 branches. Both businesses would not have survived 2008-10 had they not got freehold property. Indeed, the property arm of TP has made more money than some of the high street names in the group every year for about the last decade.  ::)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 09 July 2019, 01:39:14
Any borrowing, regardless of lending or investment, is liable to impose unnecessary pressure on any business of any size.

The only people who made money from the last crash either paid cash at 10 on the $ or bet against the market with clear funds.

Previous and future crashes will be no different...
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 09:23:35

Bro was able to pre-empt all this - its been on the cards for well over a decade - by buying all the freeholds to his, which keeps greedy landlords at bay.

This is pretty crucial, and it would certainly be on my list of must-haves if I were to run my own business (although I'm not smart/driven enough to make something like that work). To give 2 eal life examples. Firstly Where I work, there's in excess of 2,000 commercial units, the majority of which are freehold. Secondly, my parent's best friends own an estate agents in the south east with about 10 branches. Both businesses would not have survived 2008-10 had they not got freehold property. Indeed, the property arm of TP has made more money than some of the high street names in the group every year for about the last decade.  ::)

Of course there are freehold commercial properties, but what I was saying applies to major national retailers, where you will find the very large units they occupy are owned by investment and property companies.  That is why you have heard of the likes of Debenhams and the Philip Green asking their landlords to reduce the rents.   

Those retailers are the ones that are closing down, and as I stated they are going to leave large gaps in high streets and shopping centres. That brings the value of surrounding businesses down and ultimate lead to those commercial properties, regardless of who owns them, losing commercial value. That then will affect badly those independant, small traders, who do own their properties. That is what I was talking about.

As for buying your own business Jonnydog, no owning the bricks and mortar is not your first priority.  Unless you have the large funds required in place, your priority is acquiring the trading value of an existing business to allow a quick start up if their trade is the one you want, or ensuring you have arranged the funds to meet all the costs of a new start up.  Your money has to go into the trading element of that business; fitting out (a huge cost), arranging all utilities, stocking (although you will have up to 28 days of credit), staffing, advertising (if appropriate)  plus miscellaneous out goings.  The money you have or/and are have obtained from the banks must be aimed at the ability to trade, which unless you are a trader like an estate agent, your priority is that business not owning property. 

That is why the majority of new start ups have always been in leasehold property, as the practicalities dictate your usually limited funds cannot be tied up in bricks and mortar, no matter how attract that looks long term. You just have not got the funds to own the property and build your business with the cash flow you will require being readily available.  ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 09:43:24

Bro was able to pre-empt all this - its been on the cards for well over a decade - by buying all the freeholds to his, which keeps greedy landlords at bay.

This is pretty crucial, and it would certainly be on my list of must-haves if I were to run my own business[/highlight] (although I'm not smart/driven enough to make something like that work). To give 2 eal life examples. Firstly Where I work, there's in excess of 2,000 commercial units, the majority of which are freehold. Secondly, my parent's best friends own an estate agents in the south east with about 10 branches. Both businesses would not have survived 2008-10 had they not got freehold property.[/highlight] Indeed, the property arm of TP has made more money than some of the high street names in the group every year for about the last decade.  ::)

Of course there are freehold commercial properties, but what I was saying applies to major national retailers, where you will find the very large units they occupy are owned by investment and property companies.  That is why you have heard of the likes of Debenhams and the Philip Green asking their landlords to reduce the rents.   

Those retailers are the ones that are closing down, and as I stated they are going to leave large gaps in high streets and shopping centres. That brings the value of surrounding businesses down and ultimate lead to those commercial properties, regardless of who owns them, losing commercial value. That then will affect badly those independant, small traders, who do own their properties. That is what I was talking about.

As for buying your own business Jimmy, no owning the bricks and mortar is not your first priority.  Unless you have the large funds required in place, your priority is acquiring the trading value of an existing business to allow a quick start up if their trade is the one you want, or ensuring you have arranged the funds to meet all the costs of a new start up.  Your money has to go into the trading element of that business; fitting out (a huge cost), arranging all utilities, stocking (although you will have up to 28 days of credit), staffing, advertising (if appropriate)  plus miscellaneous out goings.  The money you have or/and are have obtained from the banks must be aimed at the ability to trade, which unless you are a trader like an estate agent, your priority is that business not owning property. 

That is why the majority of new start ups have always been in leasehold property, as the practicalities dictate your usually limited funds cannot be tied up in bricks and mortar, no matter how attract that looks long term. You just have not got the funds to own the property and build your business with the cash flow you will require being readily available.  ;)

Error, wrong button again!! :-[ :-[
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 09:44:05

Bro was able to pre-empt all this - its been on the cards for well over a decade - by buying all the freeholds to his, which keeps greedy landlords at bay.

This is pretty crucial, and it would certainly be on my list of must-haves if I were to run my own business[/highlight] (although I'm not smart/driven enough to make something like that work). To give 2 eal life examples. Firstly Where I work, there's in excess of2,000 commercial units, the majority of which are freehold. Secondly, my parent's best friends own an estate agents in the south east with about 10 branches. Both businesses would not have survived 2008-10 had they not got freehold property.[/highlight] Indeed, the property arm of TP has made more money than some of the high street names in the group every year for about the last decade.  ::)

Error!!  Pushed wrong button!! :-[

I have been trying to edit my post with Jimmy, instead of Jonnydog!! ::) ::)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 11:08:38
For those still interested, I have been doing some research to up-date my knowledge of my old profession.

I have found this from one of the must read weekly publications, The Grocer, that makes very interesting reading, and indeed reflects the march away from the high street to out of town super units, led very much by the grocery boys:

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/power-list/power-list-2018-who-is-pulling-the-property-strings/562893.article

Investment in these properties is still very good, as this sector has been affected less by the march to online retailing, now as I stated before that has climbed to an average 21% of ALL retailing, and still going up steadily.

Food Stores will fly the flag for some time, but the infighting / severe competition between them, such as the growing influence of Aldi and Lidl, which I have learnt the latter is a major property holder, will have it's effect.  I note that Tesco's have reduced their property portfolio to 49%, down over two years by 2%.

Now, the question is, what will Brexit do to affect, or not, the investment in retail property from abroad.  Hong Kong companies alone now own 21% of the Oxford Street properties, a marker of trend.

The Investors Chronicle states, quote:

Retail: surviving the rout -
The growth of online shopping that has lifted logistics assets has conversely meant a torrid time for physical retailers and their landlords 2018 saw retail failures accounting for well over 1,000 stores. The unsurprising consequence was that in the last three months of 2018 all retail rents were down by around 1.5 per cent, while over the same period shopping centre values shrank by 3.7 per cent. Over the year, this has been the weakest sector of the real estate market, with total negative returns of 8.3 per cent, largely because of lower capital values.


Adding:
Ostensibly, the industry discounts on offer point to pockets of value. Taking all the property sectors together, total returns in 2019 are likely to contract to 3.2 per cent, according to research by Peel Hunt, well below the five-year average of 11.9 per cent a year. But extremes within that forecast show industrial assets delivering a 3.7 per cent return for 2019 and 2020, while at the other end, rents and capital values in the retail sector are expected to show a peak to trough fall in rents and capital values of 22 per cent.

So a moving feast, and in short I am glad to have retired. There are a lot of very worried people in retail, even in the Food Store sector, as to reduce costs - a never ending task!! - more "Smart Shopping" type initiatives will be brought in causing yet more job losses.

No at happy picture! :'( :'(




Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 09 July 2019, 11:10:26
Riveting, Lizzie  ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 11:14:11
Riveting, Lizzie  ;D

I know, to most - BORING!!!! ::) ::) ::) ;D ;D ;D ;D ;)

But to me, what was bread and butter, and must know knowledge! :D :D :)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 11:53:10
But that means huge amounts of capital are tied up in bricks and mortar, not being invested in trading requirements. It also means any retail business that does also has to take the full costs of maintaining those buildings, which can be avoided if a sound lease is negotiated properly.
Nah, when he rented the shops, he was still responsible for all upkeeps and repairs.  Plus if he made improvements, his rent would go up dramatically, as the shop was now more desirable.

That's how it works in the real world.

Sounds like you're more familiar with big, square units, which can't really be improved, or need huge amounts doing (structurally) ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 11:59:26
That is why most of the online people have done so well
But that's the point.  They haven't. Very few online only have made a viable profit, and the combined walk-in shops with online presence, the online has nowhere near made up for the drop in turnover from the shop.

There is a misapprension  that online is somehow cheaper. It aint significantly so.  And if you become a target, like BA did, you likely won't survive.
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 09 July 2019, 12:32:14
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 12:34:47
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Some online clothing retailers actually destroy all clothing returns...
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: aaronjb on 09 July 2019, 12:58:39
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Some online clothing retailers actually destroy all clothing returns...

I think they're missing out on a potential revenue stream, there.. I bet there'd be purchasers if they were appropriately marketed ;) ;D ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 09 July 2019, 13:01:51
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Some online clothing retailers actually destroy all clothing returns...

I think they're missing out on a potential revenue stream, there.. I bet there'd be purchasers if they were appropriately marketed ;) ;D ;D
Yep. All the charity shops do a roaring trade.  :y
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: aaronjb on 09 July 2019, 13:17:22
Random thought for the day: My ex used to work in a charity shop .. the most common size of female shoe donated was size 9-10..

.. that's some "women" with really big feet ..
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 13:21:45
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Some online clothing retailers actually destroy all clothing returns...

I think they're missing out on a potential revenue stream, there.. I bet there'd be purchasers if they were appropriately marketed ;) ;D ;D
But that means all customers would buy the heavily discounted returns, not the profitable "new".  Plus you have to pay staff to check them, sort them, repack them, and then resend them (along with storage and so on).
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: aaronjb on 09 July 2019, 13:23:16
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Some online clothing retailers actually destroy all clothing returns...

I think they're missing out on a potential revenue stream, there.. I bet there'd be purchasers if they were appropriately marketed ;) ;D ;D
But that means all customers would buy the heavily discounted returns, not the profitable "new".  Plus you have to pay staff to check them, sort them, repack them, and then resend them (along with storage and so on).

Who said discounted? Premium!

"Worn once by Sharon of East Grinstead for a hot night out with her Tinder date which ended with a steaming cup of tea" ... etc  :-X ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 13:28:10
I hear that many young girls buy their clothes online wear them for a 'night out' and then return them saying the clothes are not suitable..... :)
Some online clothing retailers actually destroy all clothing returns...

I think they're missing out on a potential revenue stream, there.. I bet there'd be purchasers if they were appropriately marketed ;) ;D ;D
But that means all customers would buy the heavily discounted returns, not the profitable "new".  Plus you have to pay staff to check them, sort them, repack them, and then resend them (along with storage and so on).

Who said discounted? Premium!

"Worn once by Sharon of East Grinstead for a hot night out with her Tinder date which ended with a steaming cup of tea" ... etc  :-X ;D
Maybe I've had a sheltered life, but I'd suggest that was quite a niche market....


...ok, I've had a sheltered life ;D
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 13:30:27
the most common size of female shoe donated was size 9-10..

.. that's some "women" with really big feet ..
Errr, am I right in thinking that the LGBT community, particularly the T part, might be a reason?

Or have women sudden evolved to have big hoofs now?
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 13:31:02
the most common size of female shoe donated was size 9-10..

.. that's some "women" with really big feet ..
Errr, am I right in thinking that the LGBT community, particularly the T part, might be a reason?

Or have women sudden evolved to have big hoofs now?
Anyway, I'm more interested in cup sizes...
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: STEMO on 09 July 2019, 15:00:15
the most common size of female shoe donated was size 9-10..

.. that's some "women" with really big feet ..
Errr, am I right in thinking that the LGBT community, particularly the T part, might be a reason?

Or have women sudden evolved to have big hoofs now?
Anyway, I'm more interested in cup sizes...
Well....get her to bring you a mug up instead of two tiny cups  :y
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 15:42:20
But that means huge amounts of capital are tied up in bricks and mortar, not being invested in trading requirements. It also means any retail business that does also has to take the full costs of maintaining those buildings, which can be avoided if a sound lease is negotiated properly.
Nah, when he rented the shops, he was still responsible for all upkeeps and repairs.  Plus if he made improvements, his rent would go up dramatically, as the shop was now more desirable.

That's how it works in the real world.

Sounds like you're more familiar with big, square units, which can't really be improved, or need huge amounts doing (structurally) ;)


Oh no, far from it!

As for the lease, obligations and terms you negotiate those, well you do if you are a major retail player :D :D ;)

I am glad though that you TB really still believe in the "shop", which of course I LOVE, in both a professional sense and a personal one; fell in love with shopping at the age of 5, started working in them at 12!! 8) 8)

But, in the real world TB, mimicking your phrase, you and me has to recognise that like Jaguar cars greatly changing with evolution, so is retailing to suit the modern world, and what is considered "to come".

Classic example for me personally over the last few days, has been with me purchasing some new garage equipment to meet the demands of my Omega.  Not that many years ago I would go to physical outlets, like Halfords, to get what still are "male" orientated tools. Being a woman I used to feel rather intimidated going into such male orientated shops (no, not those that no doubt many of you are now thinking  -  Opti!! :o :o ;D) The opposite to how many men feel about going into lingerie shops, and trying to establish what I needed.  The very practical things like comparing prices, what it did, what it can do, then getting it home.

I have just bought online a Wolf 2.5 tonne Quick Lift 2 in 1 trolley jack, with a max. lift height (with jockey block)of 550mm for 42.94, free postage to my door, without any fuss. Easy, straight forward and at a keen price, all done with clicks.  New car ramps and extensions are coming the same way. It has left Halfords without my custom as their prices and product offer was just not good enough, well not for me anyway!

Now I have also been, yet again out to Sainsbury's as many still do go to the physical retailers, especially in that sector.  But for so much non-food items it is so easy to go and shop, using your fingers on a keyboard, to Amazon, Ebay, and the other players.  I do that with Argos, but as they have physical shops, and I can avoid the delivery charges they usually apply, I still go and collect.  But for how much longer?  Already Argos is trying to reduce it's operating costs by going into Sainsbury's more and more.

So, yes, all of us may not change our shopping habits, but evolution is always there, and is speeding up with, as I hinted before, many key retail players looking at their 5 year, let alone 10 year, plans, and making hard decisions that are already costing jobs, and will eventually reduce the whole estate of retail bricks and mortar units, albeit with coffee shops, restaurants, hair dressers, and the like doing well.

Even the bookies are now being hit by the change in those damn gambling machine stake limits.  Units will close in some quantity as the cost of running bricks and mortar shops has already become too great, and it will go to the growing sector of online gambling. ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 09 July 2019, 15:49:43
the most common size of female shoe donated was size 9-10..

.. that's some "women" with really big feet ..
Errr, am I right in thinking that the LGBT community, particularly the T part, might be a reason?

Or have women sudden evolved to have big hoofs now?

 ;D ;D ;D  You joke, but I have noticed that the larger sizes of shoes, online, are often showing "sold out", especially size 8. Nines are unusual and rare though! :D :D ;)
Title: Re: Sad news for Opti
Post by: TheBoy on 09 July 2019, 16:02:47
I am glad though that you TB really still believe in the "shop", which of course I LOVE, in both a professional sense and a personal one
I'd like to, but don't.  Our High Street (and retail parks beyond grocers etc) are likely to be non-existent in the next decade.  Really only the big boys can open in retail parks and shopping centres, and the big boys are mostly living off invester capital, rather than maintaining enough profit to pay debts.  Small shops, which make up the High Street, probably keep mostly going by the enthusiasm of the owner (or me personally, in the case of the now close sweet shop in town ;D).


But that's by the by.  The only point I've tried to make is that online has not taken up the slack. Nowhere near.

And you try and get investment for a new online shop, you will be laughed out of the meeting.  Too many investors remain the dotcom snafu.