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Messages - Rods2

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General Discussion Area / Re: Prof Neil Ferguson
« on: 07 May 2020, 00:20:02 »
I've got some work but not a lot, but I will get something from the Government until July where I've taken a hit, so I'm hoping there will be some signs of normality by then where there is talk of some things opening in the next few weeks. Some further pending work on the horizon which will happen, but many people are currently furloughed, so no decisions are going to be made immediately. Watching the 2nd half 2019 slowdown & this has been a much longer economic cycle than the typical 41 months, I had fortunately been putting some money aside as a buffer where I thought there might be a mild recession in 2020. I'm better prepared than in 2008, so I'm hoping it's just going to be a large but short term hit to the economy with a reasonably fast recovery.

I would never expect Labour to do anything other than make a complete Horlicks & then use spin to cover their tracks, but that is irrelevant as it is not their innings. The party whose innings it is used to have a reputation for reasonable competitance & in one area they have done very, very well with the fast delivery of the Nightingale hospitals by preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best & thankfully they have been virtually unused. Army logistics at its finest in the planning, construction & fitting out in a very short period of time. :y No antibody testing means this is still an open feedback loop to calculate how many people have been infected in the UK & where we are at in terms of herd immunity. Italy have found antibody test infection rates of up to 38% and Germany & the Netherlands some hot spots are ~16% which is good for herd immunity & will make a 2nd peak less likely, I suspect New York is also well on the way to herd immunity. Covid-19 has been much more widespread than confirmed cases show with 50-80% of infections are asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms so they haven't been tested. If you don't know you've got it or think that you have a mild cold, why would you bother with a test?

General Discussion Area / Prof Neil Ferguson
« on: 06 May 2020, 21:55:36 »
Wildly wrong with his modelling of Avian Flu, Swine Flu, Foot & Mouth, BSE & Covid-19. His model went from predicting 500,000 UK Covid-19 deaths making the Government panic with the lockdown rather than healthy under 70's carrying on as normal & producing herd immunity & then modified his model with a lockdown & social distancing saying there would only be 20,000 deaths.

Pity he didn't stick to fu*king his mistress, instead of fu*king the UK & totally fu*king our economy with UK 6.3m furloughed plus the 1.25m unemployed, so currently 23% of the UK workforce aren't working, which doesn't include any of the 4m self-employed many of whom have no work. In 1933 unemployment peaked in the USA at 24% in their Great Depression.

This a a review of the Ferguson's code release where if you use the same random seed for a pseudo random number generator & the same assumptions you should get the same results. Even running it as a single core thread, you don't with one such test giving an 80,000 death discrepancy over an 80 day iteration. The confidence in being able to prove any scientific hypothesis is based on independent parties being able to repeat experiments and getting correlating results within the limits of quantifiable experimental errors. His model model results are junk science. >:(

Initial randomised Covid-19 antibody tests in the USA are finding between x50 and x85 times the number of people with them for every confirmed Covid-19 case which gives a mortality rate between 2 and 3 per 1000 infected people, so slightly more dangerous than a slightly worse than average Influenza at 1 death per 1000 infections. Antibody tests in Germany, Italy & The Netherlands are getting similar results. The UK has no antibody tests as they are not happy with the current test's sensitivity & are holding out for better tests which they hope will become available sometime in June, later or maybe never. Until the UK Government have some UK antibody test results they are give the UK's economy with a 150,000,000,000-200,000,000,000 per month economic hit, while running the lockdown policy on blind infection & mortality rate assumptions.

I don't expect Governments to get everything right in a crisis with anything over 50% of correct decisions being a good result. Sadly, IMV this Government seems to be falling well short of this number.

All 10 crew sadly lost their lives when it crashed in bad weather. :'( :'( :'(

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 18 March 2020, 13:39:48 »
I just had a thought that if we get locked down for months and everything is shut, where are we going to get a haircut?  :o  :D

It's trivial I know, but what to do?  ???   :)

Not bother? and end up looking like a hippy or the wild man of Borneo?  ???  Or go DIY?  :-\

I've got a beard trimmer but it's round the back which will be tricky. :-\  So I was thinking either a crusty style mo-hawk or a mullet!  :)

And those of you who will get your other half to do it, beware of long standing grudges!  :o  ;D

Easy do what I do buy a set of Wahl hair clippers (Argos stock them) and a number 0 once a week keeps me looking like a "Hard bastard"😃

Tend to use a number 4 during the summer & a number 10 in the winter. Always found it straightforward to do. Sir Tig you had better buy one quick before the panic buyers buy 50 each, just in case they need more than 1. ::) ;D

General Discussion Area / Re: The Internet
« on: 18 March 2020, 04:51:01 »
Keep calm & carry on.

The travel & travel insurance is dead for up to 12 months.

Had a good meeting today discussing good insurance alternatives & where car insurance is a legal must will start exploring this later today as a new product line.

Economic & health survivors grind out results & I've done both with 2008 being an economic nightmare & 2015 being a health one but I fight to survive hard & will always die hard when needs must. :y :y :y

General Discussion Area / Re: The Internet
« on: 17 March 2020, 13:43:00 »
How would we cope with not 'living in interesting times'? ::)

General Discussion Area / Re: No large gatherings?
« on: 17 March 2020, 13:13:53 »
As a tax haven IOM GDP ppp in 2016 was $87381.80, although local businesses will suffer, overall a rich country, compared to mainland UK.

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 17 March 2020, 13:02:56 »
Went to Lidl PM Sunday due to unexpected work commitments, got most of what I wanted. Yesterday, on the way back from a hospital appointment picked up the few things that I couldn't get at Lidl in Aldi. Aldi have now, sensibly, implemented a maximum of 4 of any item.

Thereby ensuring that everyone has to go to the supermarket more often...

Correct, which is also spot on for the vulnerable old & infirm that need to semi-self isolate. :o :o :o

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 17 March 2020, 12:29:39 »
Went to Lidl PM Sunday due to unexpected work commitments, got most of what I wanted. Yesterday, on the way back from a hospital appointment picked up the few things that I couldn't get at Lidl in Aldi. Aldi have now, sensibly, implemented a maximum of 4 of any item.

General Discussion Area / Re: Bank Accounts
« on: 17 March 2020, 12:21:36 »
Fiat currencies like USD, GBP can be printed in Buzz Lightyear's words 'to infinity & beyond' as long as credibility is strong enough to sustain it. USD as the globe's reserve currency, definitely, GBP almost certainly where they are both very, very strong, stable, safe haven in a storm currencies. :y :y :y

The Euro is in a poor place as only half a currency with unwritten-off 2008 zombie bank debts, pretending to be worth something to stop many Eurozone banks being insolvent & needing bailouts. :-[

Serial failure & convicted criminal Christine Legarde in charge of the ECB caused market jitters last week with her crass statement on widening Italian bond yields where Italy in not the EU's country of the month at the moment. :-X :-X :-X :o :o :o

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 17 March 2020, 11:15:15 »
I knew this was going to happen last week, but could only say post-ante where underwriters have suspended their travel insurance scheme  which is going to cost me a big chunk of my monthly income. :( :( Most travel insurance schemes are now suspended with moneysupermarket panel increasingly looking like the 'Mary Celeste'. Single trip France with zero excess brings up two results, these are not normal times. :o The last two days have seen a massive fall off in sales, so no surprises that BA have announced they are cancelling 75% of flights in April & May. :o :o

It is batten down the hatches time & like 2008 which was very, very, very tough where I had to shut my main business, this one I think short term 3-12 months is going to be much, much worse. :-X

This time I'm a bit better prepared, but it is going to be very, very  tough again. :-[

Deep recessions are never a good time to be self-employed. :-\

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 15 March 2020, 23:36:50 »
Likewise Steve >:(

None of all that pompous, self-righteous panic mongering bullshit does anything to guarantee that I will have a job at the end of this week, let alone the end of the month...

Rationally, I know that this is a short term problem, but it's difficult to stay positive when certain people think that they know better than anyone else. Especially when I know full well that if my Mum, like many others gets it, then it will almost certainly kill her.

If you're so oppsing clever Rods, then perhaps you should better spend your time doing rather than spouting :-X

That is what I've been doing today on a normal day off. Your situation isn't unique & it has hit the travel insurance market big time, as there are lots of areas of uncharted territory, lots of worried passengers, some travelled & some due to travel, where nothing like this has happened before, all creating massive amounts of additional work. ???

An example: Some airlines are giving refunds, but others aren't, only new dates once you can fly again.

In 2015 I had a serious viral infection, which infected my eyes, I lost the use of my right arm through nerve damage, but I eventually gradually got that function back. It took me 10 weeks to beat the virus & long term it has left me partially sighted, with my right eye only just above the level of blindness & I can't read with it & wear an eye patch when working where is distracts my better eye. Everyday for me, life is more difficult & challenging as a result, but I have no choice but to get on with it. I'm well aware from personal experience on how dangerous viruses can be. You can go & get another job but I can't get another optic nerve for my right eye!

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 15 March 2020, 17:33:39 »
What has come clear today is that the plan is to get over 70's & anybody with chronic pre-existing health conditions that makes them vulnerable to Covid-19 to self-isolate with at least a 12 week lockdown & all under 50's carrying on as normal, schools staying open etc, so the majority get it over the next 3 months to build up herd immunity. The 50-69 age group is a grey area with I suspect most of the hospital admissions, ICU critical cases & deaths being due to chronic health conditions.

This approach implies taking a short term massive 3-6 month economic hit, that it doesn't mutate further from the current S & L types. As more people have had it then there life can return to normal, but for travel they may need to have an antibody test to prove they've had it with a stamp put in their passport? What is going to get hit very hard over the next 3-6 months hardest are:

1. Travel, tourism, hotel & hospitality industries, Virgin asking for the UK passenger airlines getting loans to the tune of 5-7.5bn from the government which will be paid back once they recover. Where the majority of my work is for an insurance broker that specializes in travel insurance, they & I are going to have to take a hit here. Fortunately, I've got enough in my rainy day fund to see me through to about September. But as a type 2 diabetic I will be part of this isolating lockdown for 3 months. It is going to be very tough on the many who are employed on zero hours contracts where many will be working zero hours.

2. Entertainment, cafes & restaurants will be second heaviest hit industry.

3. Any non-essential retailer or business as people will be pulling their belts-in.

4. Property market as this is always hit hard in times of uncertainty.

But it will be a limited time hit in the UK where I suspect in lockdown countries it will be prolonged with multiple peaks, which if it follows the 1918 Spanish flu profile, where a lowesh summer peak, a quiet autumn was followed by really gruesome massive 2nd winter peak which the UK government wants to avoid with Covid-19.

The Italian statistics show that there have no deaths in under 30's, 2 in the under 50s, 10 in the 50-59 age range, 60 in the 60-69's, 274 in the 70-79's, 355 in the 80-89's and 75 in the over 90's. The ICU figures follow a similar profile.

This profile is very different from the Chinese one for two reasons 50%+ of Chinese men smoke, but even more telling is the long term lung damage caused by their chronic air pollution where their air quality is one of the worst on earth.

As for the UK Government's approach I personally think they have played it very, very well to date where our infection rates have been below those of Italy, France, Germany & Spain by about 2 weeks, which has bought more statistics & more insight into what will hopefully be a best outcome strategy, where we have all got to responsibly play our part.

If this strategy works hopefully it will be adopted by other countries, so the world can get back to normal over the next 6 to 12 months.

China needs to now really act over the eating of raw wild animals where by tradition eating these 'delicacies' is considered 'healthier', including live baby mice, bats, dogs etc. than domesticated animal's cooked meat. A Chinese university study published in March 2019, where a Chinese coronavirus caused SARS found that Chinese bats carry a wide range of them just waiting to jump species. :(

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 13 March 2020, 15:14:36 »
10/3 373 confirmed UK cases
13/3 798 confirmed UK cases

Now if the UK government let it free run for herd immunity (the TB plan?):
16/3 1,600?
19/3 3,200?
22/3 6,400?

Which is why UK chief thinks that there currently 5k-10k cases in the UK, which is about right for a 5-14 day incubation rate. You are infectious as soon as your invaded cells start viral shedding which according to The Lancet lasts typically 20 days, but the longest recorded for a survivor was 37 days, which suggests isolation from 5-14 day period that symptoms occur, so from signs to no longer being vectious is typically a week to 2.5 weeks but could be up to a month.

25/3 12,800?
28/3 25,600?
31/3 51,200?
3/4 102,400?
6/4 204,800?
9/4 409,600?
12/4 819,200?
15/4  1.64M?
18/4 3.28M?
21/4 6.56M?
24/4 13.12M?
27/4 26.24M?
30/4 40M? 60%

Which is why they are talking about it peaking at the end of April to mid May. In this 3 months if left to freerun with no lockdowns. Deaths using Chinese confirmed cases death rates: 4.7% of men 940,000 die & 2.8% of women 560,000 die = 1,500,000 deaths in 3 months or about 1 in 45 of the UK population. To put this into context 700,000 UK service men died over 4 years in WWI. This means that lockdowns are probably only about a week away to mitigate the rate of infection, but there will probably several peaks and lockdowns until mass vaccinations early in 2021. If 60% of the global population were infected that would be about 150M deaths or about three times the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic.

Lockdowns have worked quite quickly in China & in the first infected Italian Lombardy towns.  In China it now looks like they have got it under control. :y

General Discussion Area / Re: Corona virus Europe
« on: 12 March 2020, 22:07:17 »
Like I said folks, nothing to see here with another 10% share correction & the markets waking up to the size of economic contraction that Covid-19 is going to cause.

"The New York branch of the Federal Reserve said it was pumping $1.5tr to ease strains in the debt markets, offering increased overnight loans to banks and expanding the kinds of assets it will buy to keep firms lending."

$1.5tn less than Lord Opti's weeking grocery bill ::) but still 7% of US GDP as an opening shot to support US banks & corporate America.

At least the EU are now being proactive with generous help with the Italian lock down where Italian's gave help to their tourist industry, which the EU have deemed to be illegal state aid, so have fined them, with additional daily surcharges for everyday it's not paid. Talk about a kick in the nuts when you are down. Looks like now we have left the EU that Italy are going to be their new whipping boys & with friends like that when you're down who needs enemies. :-X >:(

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