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Author Topic: Putin's Zugzwang  (Read 1226 times)

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Rods2

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Putin's Zugzwang
« on: 31 July 2014, 19:54:27 »

Zugzwang is a German word: When playing chess you are in the situation that you have to make a move, but any move puts you in a worse position.

This is Putin's problem: After his success with Crimea when the Kiev Government were in disarray he though putting a few GRU officers and terrorists to seize buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk regions would trigger a popular uprising with a rigged vote to join Russia, Ie. the same as he had done in Crimea. His miscalculation is that only a very small number of Ukrainians and ethnic Russians are interested in joining Russia where most people in the region put a greater value on personal freedom, reducing corruption and making more money by having closer ties with the rich part of Europe, the EU, than being under the thumb of dictator Putin.

At home Putin annexing Crimea has made him very popular and so he has done a big propaganda sell with a nationalist policy about rebuilding a new Russian empire, part of this is the new Russian province 'Novorussia' by annexing all of the South and East of Ukraine. He is using nationalism to paper over the cracks that are appearing in their economy. He is not the first to do this by any means, Galtieri did the same by invading the Falklands and when he lost he was deposed.

Now the Ukrainian army have got their act together and have recovered much of the territory seized by the Russian terrorists and to try and stop total defeat Putin and Russia are being drawn deeper and deeper into the conflict. They are still shipping much heavy military equipment over the border to support the terrorists and have escalated further by firing Grad rockets from Russia at Ukrainian troops and shot down from over the Russian some Ukrainian aircraft flying in Ukraine airspace. They have now moved Grad launchers temporarily into Ukraine to stop Donetsk being cut off by the Ukrainian Army's latest drive. This he may have got away with as the west (with the exception of Canada) had little interest in the fate of Ukraine and were content to have a few token sanctions to show their disapproval, but MH17 has changed all of that.

Now if he is defeated in Ukraine or ends up with a poor political settlement he will take a hard knock on the home front, which could involve him being deposed, if he continues to escalate his support for the terrorists in Ukraine the west have made it quite clear the will add more sanctions, which will add to his economic problems and to the restrictions on his inner circle and he may well end up being deposed. Unless he finds away out of this, he needs to make sure Russia goes short on piano wire and avoid lampposts. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Sanctions have meant the Russian central Bank since Crimea has raised their Base rate from 5.5% to 8% defending the value of the Rouble. They have also spent substantial currency reserves on doing the same. Companies that have been borrowing from Western financial institutions are finding it much more difficult to refinance and interest rates are higher. The problem companies have is not only the current sanctions, but also banks don't want to be left holding non-tradeable debt if sanctions increase further. Putin can't retaliate against the west with an energy war as that would crash his economy, where 45% of his economy depends on oil and gas sales most of it to Western Europe. The EU, US, Canada, Japan and other OSCE countries have a combined GDP of $35tn against Russia's $2tn they can afford to take the small losses from sanctions compared to Russia.

Maybe he should take this Ukrainian graffiti on Donbass military chief Strelkov as good advice. ;D ;D ;D ;D

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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #1 on: 31 July 2014, 20:08:31 »

the game in Ukraine is not how you tell Rods.. just look at this link


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101629179#.


its the cartels who play there and have invested serious amount..  nothing to do with freedom ..



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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #2 on: 31 July 2014, 20:12:19 »

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Shackeng

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #3 on: 31 July 2014, 21:32:40 »

Wow, that could almost have been written for conspiracy theorists! :-X
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Shackeng

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #4 on: 31 July 2014, 21:34:34 »


and here is how it started


http://www.hangthebankers.com/us-spent-5-billion-to-destabilize-ukraine/

Wow, that could almost have been written for conspiracy theorists! :-X
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #5 on: 31 July 2014, 22:27:40 »


and here is how it started


http://www.hangthebankers.com/us-spent-5-billion-to-destabilize-ukraine/

Wow, that could almost have been written for conspiracy theorists! :-X


its exactly how it happened..
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Rods2

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #6 on: 31 July 2014, 23:16:09 »


and here is how it started


http://www.hangthebankers.com/us-spent-5-billion-to-destabilize-ukraine/

Wow, that could almost have been written for conspiracy theorists! :-X


its exactly how it happened..

I have been following what is happening there in detail and have over 60 different sources I'm getting information from at the moment. What I have written above is my synopses from this. I too could cut and paste other peoples views which might be right or wrong, but I have brain which I like to use and I'm good at digesting information from different sources and forming my own opinions which is why most of what I write are rightly or wrongly my own views on things. If I think adding a link is relevant then I do.

I've seen many conspiracy theories where it is all the USA's fault, funny that it always is, now it wouldn't be Russian disinformation and propaganda for use by Putin's useful fools by any chance? You'll be telling me next that every word uttered on RT is the absolute truth, just a shame their presenters keep resigning saying they are not prepared to keep telling lies and where in the UK broadcasters have to legally tell the truth and give balanced views, now are now being investigated by our broadcasting authority where they will have to substantiate their claims, if they can't they will be fined, made to broadcast appoligies or worse. :o :o :o :o
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #7 on: 31 July 2014, 23:24:31 »


and here is how it started


http://www.hangthebankers.com/us-spent-5-billion-to-destabilize-ukraine/

Wow, that could almost have been written for conspiracy theorists! :-X


its exactly how it happened..

I have been following what is happening there in detail and have over 60 different sources I'm getting information from at the moment. What I have written above is my synopses from this. I too could cut and paste other peoples views which might be right or wrong, but I have brain which I like to use and I'm good at digesting information from different sources and forming my own opinions which is why most of what I write are rightly or wrongly my own views on things. If I think adding a link is relevant then I do.

I've seen many conspiracy theories where it is all the USA's fault, funny that it always is, now it wouldn't be Russian disinformation and propaganda for use by Putin's useful fools by any chance? You'll be telling me next that every word uttered on RT is the absolute truth, just a shame their presenters keep resigning saying they are not prepared to keep telling lies and where in the UK broadcasters have to legally tell the truth and give balanced views, now are now being investigated by our broadcasting authority where they will have to substantiate their claims, if they can't they will be fined, made to broadcast appoligies or worse. :o :o :o :o


* your sources tell the part of the truth they like ;)
* for me no apparent reason to write long passages ..  the truth is there and written on many pages.. I just gave the link and people read if they wish..


* and if you believe what USA said, you may still believe Saddam had chemical weapons ;D
* and probably you forget Russia is nearby for me and many friends worked there, or married to a Russian and I can easily get first hand knowledge which most of those people have no advantage of telling political lies ;)
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Andy B

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #8 on: 31 July 2014, 23:34:45 »

As long as nobody does anything for the next week or so while my little girl is in Russia  :-\ ....... (Moscow at the moment )
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Vamps

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #9 on: 31 July 2014, 23:42:57 »

As long as nobody does anything for the next week or so while my little girl is in Russia  :-\ ....... (Moscow at the moment )

Mines in a huff........ ::) ::)
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #10 on: 31 July 2014, 23:43:32 »

As long as nobody does anything for the next week or so while my little girl is in Russia  :-\ ....... (Moscow at the moment )


biggest danger in Russia is the mad drivers.. more than anything..  :-\
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Johnny English

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #11 on: 01 August 2014, 12:50:46 »


* your sources tell the part of the truth they like ;)
* for me no apparent reason to write long passages ..  the truth is there and written on many pages.. I just gave the link and people read if they wish..


* and if you believe what USA said, you may still believe Saddam had chemical weapons ;D
* and probably you forget Russia is nearby for me and many friends worked there, or married to a Russian and I can easily get first hand knowledge which most of those people have no advantage of telling political lies ;)


Saddam really had chemical weapons ( poisonous gases ) IRC as he had used them against Iraquian kurds.

Anyway several other aspects there are in this conflict, my wife is a Hungarian like me but she was born in Ukraine, more than often we have meeting her parents at home, I am filling my car there as well etc etc so I know the point of view of Hungarians who live in Ukraine. They are not too much there just around 150 000 people who really afraid of total assimilation as actual goverment doesn't guarantee free native language using, and continously transport so called "refugees" to dilute relative Hun majority where there is at all...refugees appear as well situated people with new cars and lots of money as if they were there just on holliday. More hundred ones arrived up to now nobody understand though why so important to bring them exactly the farest province of Ukraine and why can not be found a closer place for them...If you take a look to a map well seen where Donetsk is and where Subcarpatian region. (which had been originally a Hungarian region for more than thousand yrs - that's why load of Hun there are.) Military call-ups come to hand at night all the time, and as first act, Ukrainian officers get undersigned a blanket (on Ukrainian language of course) in which the questioned people offer to the state them to be counted as volunteers. No interpreter, no official translation. Nationalists press day by day that in Ukraine everybody have to know the Ukrainian language, the problem is next though: nobody help to Hun people to learn the Ukrainian professionally as there is no united Ukrainian language but different dialects all of which does have a strong Russian grammatical core that's why worth learning rather Russian than Ukrainian. I speak a bit Russian as well and really wanted to learn Ukrainian with no joy as no official website for students to support them to learn, no books, no courses, no teachers just a BIG expectation that everybody have to speak the language of state.

Corruption: if you need a job you have to buy it. You have all the abilities that need to gain a position but no money? You lost! Need a degree? Buy it! Corruption is such high level that we can not imagine at all until met it. Individuals are getting richer and richer country gets poorer and poorer, you can see that officiers what houses like live in , what cars like they run no need to have a master degree of world economy to state that goods of country slowly overleaking to hands of individuals....My personal opinion is Ukraine is just a "prestige question" between Putin and Obama but with these level of corruption is absolutely not a vital country. Its vitality just an artificially supported phenomenon depending on a thin string called "geopolitical stability".
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Varche

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #12 on: 01 August 2014, 13:18:01 »

Any idea who is waiting in the wings to take over if Putin is deposed?

I see that Russia has banned imported Polish fruit and veg. It is to be hoped that the EU finds a market for the banned produce!
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cem_devecioglu

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #13 on: 01 August 2014, 13:35:06 »


* your sources tell the part of the truth they like ;)
* for me no apparent reason to write long passages ..  the truth is there and written on many pages.. I just gave the link and people read if they wish..


* and if you believe what USA said, you may still believe Saddam had chemical weapons ;D
* and probably you forget Russia is nearby for me and many friends worked there, or married to a Russian and I can easily get first hand knowledge which most of those people have no advantage of telling political lies ;)


Saddam really had chemical weapons ( poisonous gases ) IRC as he had used them against Iraquian kurds.




yes he used chemical weapon on Kurds..  which he had a very limited source..


now ask yourself a simple question ,  if had a enough amount why wouldnt he use when bombs falling on his head.. and why the americans couldnt find any ?


and also what was the actual claim about Saddam.. weapons of mass destruction.. was there any ?




they Created a muppet called Bin laden , told the whole world a story and later killed the muppet with few soldiers.. if he was that dangerous would he live in a village with 2-3 man or in a mountain with lots of men.. and why they buried the corpse in the ocean..


what makes me more angry is they think the world is full of idiots >:(
« Last Edit: 01 August 2014, 13:41:52 by cem »
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Andy B

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Re: Putin's Zugzwang
« Reply #14 on: 01 August 2014, 13:45:38 »

As long as nobody does anything for the next week or so while my little girl is in Russia  :-\ ....... (Moscow at the moment )


biggest danger in Russia is the mad drivers.. more than anything..  :-\

I think we've all seen them via Youtube and in car cameras  :o
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