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Author Topic: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?  (Read 407 times)

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Varche

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Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« on: 12 July 2019, 18:15:58 »

Turkey is taking delivery of the Russian S-400 defence system but still expects to get F 35 planes from the US.  Turkey is a member of NATO with a pretty big army.

Turkey is a bit of a conundrum.  They are also in conflict over drilling for oil off disputed Cyprus waters.
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #1 on: 12 July 2019, 19:00:13 »

Normal day in the world at the moment,, and they buy oil from Iran.

Need rods2 take on this, bet it's the Russian's fault.
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Lizzie Zoom

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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #2 on: 12 July 2019, 20:07:02 »

Apparently about 80% of Turks do not support the USA, and about the same, if not more, do not like President Trump.

Yes, Rod is the best authority on all this, but all I know is that Turkey has been very hit and miss with it's relationship with the West, and in particular Great Britain back in history.  And historically they have been more aligned with Russia than the West.  The Otterman Empire breakup did rather encourage them looking towards the East for allies than to the West. However, we must also recognise that a series of wars did occur between Turkey and Russia for about 300 years. . This included the period of the Crimean War when Britain came to the rescue of Turkey against the Russian invaders. So a very chequered history indeed!!::) ;)

The Great War, where Turkey fought against the western allies, winning against them at Gallipoli certainly has not been forgotten.

So, in short I do not think Turkey can be relied upon to always be a friend to western forces
« Last Edit: 12 July 2019, 20:21:26 by Lizzie Zoom »
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #3 on: 12 July 2019, 20:32:08 »



The Great War, where Turkey fought against the western allies, winning against them at Gallipoli certainly has not been forgotten.

So, in short I do not think Turkey can be relied upon to always be a friend to western forces

My Grandfather lied about his age to join the Dorset Regiment in WW1 and ended up fighting the Turks in Mesopotamia.  :(
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #4 on: 12 July 2019, 20:47:41 »

I think thatís a very good post, for me at least Lizz. Thanks.
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #5 on: 12 July 2019, 20:48:02 »



The Great War, where Turkey fought against the western allies, winning against them at Gallipoli certainly has not been forgotten.

So, in short I do not think Turkey can be relied upon to always be a friend to western forces

My Grandfather lied about his age to join the Dorset Regiment in WW1 and ended up fighting the Turks in Mesopotamia.  :(

Yes, because that whole region was part of the disintegrating Otterman Empire and the Turks were fighting off the western allies in those parts. It was all a costly and complicated campaign overall.  Anyone who fought in those parts suffered as much as those on the Western Front. They were all brave men in a terrible war. :'(
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Lizzie Zoom

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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #6 on: 12 July 2019, 20:51:40 »

I think thatís a very good post, for me at least Lizz. Thanks.

Thanks Raeturbo, but I must emphasis I have skimmed over a very long and complicated story, that really started with the final fall of the Byzantine Empire in 1453 with the Otterman Empire lasting, just, right up into World War 1. Constantinople / Istanbul (1923) / Turkey became the key player of that story by then in those parts of the East. It is all worth a good read, if you have enough time! ;D ;D ;)
« Last Edit: 12 July 2019, 20:56:09 by Lizzie Zoom »
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #7 on: 12 July 2019, 20:59:28 »



The Great War, where Turkey fought against the western allies, winning against them at Gallipoli certainly has not been forgotten.

So, in short I do not think Turkey can be relied upon to always be a friend to western forces

My Grandfather lied about his age to join the Dorset Regiment in WW1 and ended up fighting the Turks in Mesopotamia.  :(

Yes, because that whole region was part of the disintegrating Otterman Empire and the Turks were fighting off the western allies in those parts. It was all a costly and complicated campaign overall.  Anyone who fought in those parts suffered as much as those on the Western Front. They were all brave men in a terrible war. :'(
Otterman? I must have missed him. Is he a marvel superhero?
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Rods2

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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #8 on: 12 July 2019, 21:05:57 »

Putin is good at playing a weak hand & good at taking advantage of any situation that comes his way that helps his objectives of weakening the West, sowing discord & ideally breaking up NATO & the EU & reestablishing Russian regional Hegemony* & Turkey is a gift that pushes all of these buttons which as usual Putin is playing very well, so it keeps on giving.

Turkish President Erdogan as Europe's newest Poundland dictator also has a weak hand, which he is playing generally very badly, with the exception of Trump where he has sussed flattery gets you everywhere with him. The economy being Turkey's achilles heel, after all what is the point of installing yourself as a dictator if you & your ruling cabal can't enrich themselves at the expense of the hardworking people, by helping yourself to any wealth you fancy?

The end result is that their currency has been in freefall & Erdogan has just sacked the caperable, but can't produce miracles head of their state bank which has made things worse, so the economy is one to watch. As an aside Erdogan recently lost the local Istanbul elections & taking a leaf out of the EU's election playbook of keep voting until you vote the right way, so the second election meant he lost by even bigger margins. ;D ;D Best of 3,5,7... in UK EURef2 anybody. :-[ :o

Coming back to the F35 v S400, where the US is cancelling delivery of the F35s to Turkey. This is the correct decision where Russian technicians 'training' Turkish operators would have full access to the F35's radar, IR & electromagnetic emissions profiles, why gift this when they will have to work of getting them through 'provocative' combat training missions, the same way as everybody else does against everybody else. This is particularly important with the S400 system with its multiple band radars and IR spectrum sensors where they try to detect & defeat stealth aircraft.

Turkey as a major F35 partner makes over 900 parts, with these now having to be sourced from new suppliers is adding $$$m to the overall production costs, plus a 100 aircraft shorter production run will also do the same. How hardball Trump plays with Turkey in terms of sanctions who knows, including I suspect Trump himself? If this hots up with severe sanctions, including cutting them off from the SWIFT banking system, good luck to all those Tourists in Turkey caught up in this in trying to get home & your value as a Western hostage.

Personally, I would risk booking a holiday there until we see what happens.

*Putin's Master Plan by US political strategists Douglas E. Schoen & Evan Roth Smith
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Raeturbo

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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #9 on: 12 July 2019, 21:11:14 »

I agree, although Iím astonished at your insight/s.
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #10 on: 12 July 2019, 21:12:47 »

Turkey is taking delivery of the Russian S-400 defence system but still expects to get F 35 planes from the US.  Turkey is a member of NATO with a pretty big army.

The US will not allow any country to operate both F-35 and a top of the range Russian defence radar/missile system.

The reason is simple. In peacetime western stealth aircraft normally fly with radar reflectors fitted (typically Luneberg lenses). There are at least two reasons for this - firstly it means they can be seen by ordinary (civil) radar systems so they don't accidentally 'bump' into other traffic, and secondly to disguise their true radar signature from prying non friendly radars. Israel, the US and the UK have all operated F-35 close to 'hostile' countries such as Russia, Syria and Iran.

The only time the radar reflectors are removed is when the planes are taking part in active (potentially hostile) missions. There is still a chance that a hostile radar may pick something up, but given the element of surprise, and the lack of information on what a 'cloaked' stealth aircrafts radar signature looks like chances are the stealth aircraft will complete it's mission safely. The SS-400 operators in Russia, Syria and Iran won't get any practice in targeting a cloaked F-35, and if push comes to shove an F-35 will have taken out all the SS-400 sites before the SS-400's operators have learned what to look for.

However, if Turkey is allowed to operate both F-35 and SS-400, then they can work out how to use the SS-400 to target the F-35 in peacetime conditions, and spend as long as they want doing so. And the risk is that the information on how to do it will get fed back to Russia, and then on to Iran and Syria. The US cannot allow that to happen, since it'll remove one of the major advantages the F-35 has, and F-35 is key to western defence for the next 20+ years.

Turkish pilots have already been banned from areas of Luke AFB in Arizona (the training base for F-35A's), and their aircraft impounded. None have been delivered to Turkey so far. And the way things are going, none ever will be. The US won't want to loose access to Incirlik AB in Turkey, so some tough decisions will be needed soon.
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Raeturbo

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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #11 on: 12 July 2019, 21:16:39 »

???  'dangle berries' to the news this is where itís at  :y Thanks.
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #12 on: 12 July 2019, 21:18:19 »

I agree, although Iím astonished at your insight/s.

+1 :y

Rod is the undoubted expert commentator on this area of the World and obviously studies it very deeply. A good read always! 8) :y
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #13 on: 12 July 2019, 21:20:05 »

Turkey is taking delivery of the Russian S-400 defence system but still expects to get F 35 planes from the US.  Turkey is a member of NATO with a pretty big army.

The US will not allow any country to operate both F-35 and a top of the range Russian defence radar/missile system.

The reason is simple. In peacetime western stealth aircraft normally fly with radar reflectors fitted (typically Luneberg lenses). There are at least two reasons for this - firstly it means they can be seen by ordinary (civil) radar systems so they don't accidentally 'bump' into other traffic, and secondly to disguise their true radar signature from prying non friendly radars. Israel, the US and the UK have all operated F-35 close to 'hostile' countries such as Russia, Syria and Iran.

The only time the radar reflectors are removed is when the planes are taking part in active (potentially hostile) missions. There is still a chance that a hostile radar may pick something up, but given the element of surprise, and the lack of information on what a 'cloaked' stealth aircrafts radar signature looks like chances are the stealth aircraft will complete it's mission safely. The SS-400 operators in Russia, Syria and Iran won't get any practice in targeting a cloaked F-35, and if push comes to shove an F-35 will have taken out all the SS-400 sites before the SS-400's operators have learned what to look for.

However, if Turkey is allowed to operate both F-35 and SS-400, then they can work out how to use the SS-400 to target the F-35 in peacetime conditions, and spend as long as they want doing so. And the risk is that the information on how to do it will get fed back to Russia, and then on to Iran and Syria. The US cannot allow that to happen, since it'll remove one of the major advantages the F-35 has, and F-35 is key to western defence for the next 20+ years.

Turkish pilots have already been banned from areas of Luke AFB in Arizona (the training base for F-35A's), and their aircraft impounded. None have been delivered to Turkey so far. And the way things are going, none ever will be. The US won't want to loose access to Incirlik AB in Turkey, so some tough decisions will be needed soon.

Very interesting and informative as normal 8) :y
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Re: Turkey , NATO or Russia or independent?
« Reply #14 on: 12 July 2019, 21:22:00 »



The Great War, where Turkey fought against the western allies, winning against them at Gallipoli certainly has not been forgotten.

So, in short I do not think Turkey can be relied upon to always be a friend to western forces

My Grandfather lied about his age to join the Dorset Regiment in WW1 and ended up fighting the Turks in Mesopotamia.  :(

Yes, because that whole region was part of the disintegrating Otterman Empire and the Turks were fighting off the western allies in those parts. It was all a costly and complicated campaign overall.  Anyone who fought in those parts suffered as much as those on the Western Front. They were all Antipodean cannon fodder in a terrible war. :'(
Sad but true :'(
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