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Author Topic: Probable outage soon  (Read 946 times)

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Eboy.com

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Probable outage soon
« on: 09 August 2019, 17:16:15 »

We've been running on a generator for a while this afternoon due to a power cut.  Not entirely how waterproof the genny is, so it may have to go off at the next shower.

This is compounded by one of the UPS' refusing to charge, so we're down to a non resilient physical server/storage, because things are sent to try us.

Apologies upfront, but its liable to be without warning :(
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #1 on: 09 August 2019, 17:29:30 »

We all have the odd outage from time to time, so it's alright.  :)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #2 on: 09 August 2019, 18:05:13 »

Ah....that explains why Brackley was suddenly devoid of electricity this afternoon. Just got tilled out at Tesco's when the place went into darkness. Covered the whole of Brackley !!! :)
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Eboy.com

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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #3 on: 09 August 2019, 18:12:26 »

Ah....that explains why Brackley was suddenly devoid of electricity this afternoon. Just got tilled out at Tesco's when the place went into darkness. Covered the whole of Brackley !!! :)
It covered a far wider area than just Brakkers ;)
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Eboy.com

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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #4 on: 09 August 2019, 18:13:27 »

One server is back on mains (via its UPS), the other is still on genny, as its UPS won't tolerate a power outage, and is currently charging very slowly.
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Kevin Wood

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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #5 on: 09 August 2019, 18:20:53 »

Ah....that explains why Brackley was suddenly devoid of electricity this afternoon. Just got tilled out at Tesco's when the place went into darkness. Covered the whole of Brackley !!! :)

So, no sooner do you stock up the freezer again than it runs out of leccy? ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #6 on: 09 August 2019, 19:36:47 »

Ah....that explains why Brackley was suddenly devoid of electricity this afternoon. Just got tilled out at Tesco's when the place went into darkness. Covered the whole of Brackley !!! :)

So, no sooner do you stock up the freezer again than it runs out of leccy? ;D
And not the slightest hint of irony ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #7 on: 10 August 2019, 20:22:04 »

This affected 500,000 people in London, Midlands & Wales where there was an offshore bird slaughterers farm issue & it's backup fossil fuel power station not kicking in due to problems & resultant grid collapse. It is why the Australian government is building a vast new range of next generation power stations, where South Australia has had several total grid collapses along with the privilege of having the world's most expensive electricity from their bird slaughterers. In their last GE Labour promised to reverse this decision & lost where Australians have had enough of rare expensive electricity! :-[ Germany is doing the same to stop the continued offshoring of companies for cheap reliable electricity from Polish coal fired power stations. German YOY industrial production figures last month show it was down 3.7%.

Windmills in the 18th century & cargo sailing ships in the 19th century have been abandoned as such intermittent power sources are not practical ways of running industrialised societies. Where our MPs are determined to wind the clock back in this country to the pre-industrial revolution one, expect to have the same standards of living again. Swell. :(
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #8 on: 10 August 2019, 20:42:55 »

As I previously said many times, the national grid is dangerously close to capacity ,and antiquated  :(
our coal power stations had just been fitted with catalytic converters and emission controls then cut up for scrap  :'(
the knob jockey politicians need to look at how much environmental impact scrapping working systems in favour of "green energy" ,which is NOT green by the time you scrap stuff,recycle it,mine raw materials for new "green technology" ,process it all, then ship or fly it half way round the world to implement it.

 
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #9 on: 10 August 2019, 21:18:54 »

The glass fibre resin blades only have about a 20 year life & can't be recycled & the same applies to solar panels which have several nasty chemicals in them.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #10 on: 10 August 2019, 21:43:30 »

As I previously said many times, the national grid is dangerously close to capacity ,and antiquated  :( ....

You sure? How will we recharge our electric cars then?  ::) ::) ::) ::)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #11 on: 10 August 2019, 23:16:25 »

This affected 500,000 people in London, Midlands & Wales where there was an offshore bird slaughterers farm issue & it's backup fossil fuel power station not kicking in due to problems & resultant grid collapse. It is why the Australian government is building a vast new range of next generation power stations, where South Australia has had several total grid collapses along with the privilege of having the world's most expensive electricity from their bird slaughterers. In their last GE Labour promised to reverse this decision & lost where Australians have had enough of rare expensive electricity! :-[ Germany is doing the same to stop the continued offshoring of companies for cheap reliable electricity from Polish coal fired power stations. German YOY industrial production figures last month show it was down 3.7%.

Windmills in the 18th century & cargo sailing ships in the 19th century have been abandoned as such intermittent power sources are not practical ways of running industrialised societies. Where our MPs are determined to wind the clock back in this country to the pre-industrial revolution one, expect to have the same standards of living again. Swell. :(

Well done for missing that a natural gas powerstation dropped before the wind farm and that it was the two simultaneous failures that caused the outage.

Laughably selective with your information as ever rods.

Oh and the only proper study into bird deaths that I could find (Sovacool 2009) showed that wind turbines caused 0.3-0.4 fatalities per GWh electricity produced compared to 5.2 for fossil fuels.

But please, tell us again about how many Twitter followers you preach to.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #12 on: 11 August 2019, 10:05:14 »

I suspect the wind farm was turned off for safety reasons, due to high winds, although the current green agenda will mean that's unlikely to be announced, as the Daily Fail and co will headline with wind farms can't handle wind.

As the grid would have been aware that some of the silly wind things were at risk of approaching their working safe limits, you can bet they had as many traditional generating systems running at full capacity due to the time they take to fire up, and the stored energy ones fully ready on standby.  And possibly a lot of the renewables were already off for forementioned safety limits.


If that theory is correct, it shows we currently have too much reliance on ultimately unreliable renewables.  The Bedford one might have actually failed due to not being fed enough power to run it - which was what happened at Chernobyl in the 80s, but again we'll never know, because there are other agendas at play.

Although the power cuts were widespread, they were patchy, which shows the grid were managing it - this will be so much easier when smart meters are universal.


And for those that believe entirely on the announced timings, my UPS logs show my power had gone off significantly before the stated times of the 2 generator failures, and had been browning out before that, which shows the power availability was already under pressure, and that cuts were already being managed.  So something smells.
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dave the builder

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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #13 on: 11 August 2019, 11:30:54 »

As I previously said many times, the national grid is dangerously close to capacity ,and antiquated  :( ....

You sure? How will we recharge our electric cars then?  ::) ::) ::) ::)
you tell me  :-\
batteries from pound land  :D

or we need to spend billions updating the grid ,which will cause massive disruption and cost billions

The DNO's have been downgrading 100 amp cut outs to 60 amps for many years
check what yours is if it's labeled ,obviously take care,just a visual inspection
no removing seals or wiggling the DNO's cables (which may be loose if you had a smart meter installed by some ex Tesco shelf stacker , who's only had a few weeks training )



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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #14 on: 11 August 2019, 11:59:50 »

We're about to go the other way. Our 60 amp (1970's original) is getting an upgrade.

A 5 bed house with 1 bed annex and charging my milk float, probably won't end well with a 60a supply  ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #15 on: 11 August 2019, 12:34:22 »

I've replaced a 60 Amp cut out that had shat it's black tar guts out  :D
they will happily sit glowing at double capacity for hours
cable in the street if a 1970's house is probably more tolerant than a 1930's paper wrapped cable ,which I'm sure the grid still has plenty of  :P
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #16 on: 11 August 2019, 12:42:52 »

It's not really about the fuse in the incomer, though. A 70's delivery network was probably designed with an overnight diversity of between 1 and 2 kw per house, and the fact they were fitting 60A fuses might indicate that it has got worse than that since. That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #17 on: 11 August 2019, 13:26:34 »

More work for builders when all the houses burn down  :)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #18 on: 11 August 2019, 15:47:23 »

That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D
But that's when solar renewables are at their most efficient.  Oh, hang on a sec, they haven't thought that one through too well...
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #19 on: 11 August 2019, 16:33:30 »

That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D
But that's when solar renewables are at their most efficient.  Oh, hang on a sec, they haven't thought that one through too well...

So, we're all going to end up working night shifts and, in other news, eating tofu? ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #20 on: 11 August 2019, 17:23:36 »

Reading between the line, it seems the outage which affected half the country on Friday may have been due to the experts thinking they could rely on wind power when they couldn't ?  If this was the case, I imagine it unlikely that they will ever admit it.  ::)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #21 on: 11 August 2019, 17:33:06 »

It's not really about the fuse in the incomer, though. A 70's delivery network was probably designed with an overnight diversity of between 1 and 2 kw per house, and the fact they were fitting 60A fuses might indicate that it has got worse than that since. That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D

Electrics aren't my strong suit, I can wire a plug, know how to run cables to keep building control happy, but diversity loses me a bit.

Kevin, can you explain why you would have night time diversity that's different from peak, say when everyone turns on their oven, shower or kettle, which 80% of people do at the same time.  ???

Even if I get a 7kw wall box put in, that's still pulling less than when I have a shower, (9kw) or more to the point at 645am when loads of people put the shower on.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #22 on: 11 August 2019, 17:33:24 »

As I previously said many times, the national grid is dangerously close to capacity ,and antiquated  :( ....

You sure? How will we recharge our electric cars then?  ::) ::) ::) ::)
you tell me  :-\
batteries from pound land  :D

or we need to spend billions updating the grid ,which will cause massive disruption and cost billions

The DNO's have been downgrading 100 amp cut outs to 60 amps for many years
check what yours is if it's labeled ,obviously take care,just a visual inspection
no removing seals or wiggling the DNO's cables (which may be loose if you had a smart meter installed by some ex Tesco shelf stacker , who's only had a few weeks training )




Err, wots a DNO Dave?  :-[
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #23 on: 11 August 2019, 18:40:53 »

Distribution Network Operator
 eg, western power
people who do the big wires  ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #24 on: 11 August 2019, 19:03:35 »

It's not really about the fuse in the incomer, though. A 70's delivery network was probably designed with an overnight diversity of between 1 and 2 kw per house, and the fact they were fitting 60A fuses might indicate that it has got worse than that since. That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D

Electrics aren't my strong suit, I can wire a plug, know how to run cables to keep building control happy, but diversity loses me a bit.

Kevin, can you explain why you would have night time diversity that's different from peak, say when everyone turns on their oven, shower or kettle, which 80% of people do at the same time.  ???

Even if I get a 7kw wall box put in, that's still pulling less than when I have a shower, (9kw) or more to the point at 645am when loads of people put the shower on.

Essentially, they size the network and the substation that feeds it based on an assumption of what the average consumption of a house will be at various times of the day, knowing that it will be many times higher for relatively short periods of time during the day. Not everybody takes a shower at the same time, so a 9kw draw for a few minutes at a time doesn't cause a problem where there are other houses drawing very little energy. Over a development of a few hundred houses it all averages out to a reasonable current draw from the substation so everything can be rated for very little current in comparison to the maximum that each household could consume multiplied by the number of households. This reduction from the theoretical maximum current rating required (which is impractical) is called diversity.

The network can withstand short periods of substantial overload such as when sunday roasts are in the oven or when a popular TV programme ends and everyone puts the kettle on. This is fine as long as the network gets some time to recover, which is where the likely night time loading comes in. For a housing estate with gas central heating fitted, this can be very low. A few hours of light loading allows substations and underground cables to cool off (they are large items with considerable thermal inertia). The sizing of the infrastructure relies on this period and so a big change to the pattern of night time consumption across many homes would invalidate the diversity calculations and cause the local network to need to be resized if it is to remain reliable. A switch to charging electric cars at night is exactly the sort of change that would cause this.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #25 on: 11 August 2019, 19:04:27 »

It's not really about the fuse in the incomer, though. A 70's delivery network was probably designed with an overnight diversity of between 1 and 2 kw per house, and the fact they were fitting 60A fuses might indicate that it has got worse than that since. That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D

Electrics aren't my strong suit, I can wire a plug, know how to run cables to keep building control happy, but diversity loses me a bit.

Kevin, can you explain why you would have night time diversity that's different from peak, say when everyone turns on their oven, shower or kettle, which 80% of people do at the same time.  ???

Even if I get a 7kw wall box put in, that's still pulling less than when I have a shower, (9kw) or more to the point at 645am when loads of people put the shower on.
I found this for you, Jimmy. Happy reading  ;D

http://www.demand.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/DEMAND2016_Full_paper_158-Durand-Daubin.pdf
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #26 on: 13 August 2019, 19:32:02 »

The network can withstand short periods of substantial overload such as when sunday roasts are in the oven or when a popular TV programme ends and everyone puts the kettle on. This is fine as long as the network gets some time to recover, which is where the likely night time loading comes in. For a housing estate with gas central heating fitted, this can be very low. A few hours of light loading allows substations and underground cables to cool off (they are large items with considerable thermal inertia). The sizing of the infrastructure relies on this period and so a big change to the pattern of night time consumption across many homes would invalidate the diversity calculations and cause the local network to need to be resized if it is to remain reliable. A switch to charging electric cars at night is exactly the sort of change that would cause this.
In addition to the time for equipment to recover, the stored energy systems also need to recharge (in most cases, pump the water back to the top lake) before the next time there is a peak in demand.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #27 on: 13 August 2019, 23:05:34 »

That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D
But that's when solar renewables are at their most efficient.  Oh, hang on a sec, they haven't thought that one through too well...

At least the windmills will make up for that for night charging, where wind is solar driven there is generally less of it at night & during the winter when you get peak demand, especially when we have an exceptionally cold high pressure area over the UK for a few weeks. Last winter over a 6 week period they were only generating at an average of 13% of peak capacity with their bird slaughterers. Doh. :o :o Will the phrase "In the Doldrums" apply to electric cars when your becalmed from not being able to charge it for a few weeks? ::) ::) ::)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #28 on: 13 August 2019, 23:10:47 »

It's not really about the fuse in the incomer, though. A 70's delivery network was probably designed with an overnight diversity of between 1 and 2 kw per house, and the fact they were fitting 60A fuses might indicate that it has got worse than that since. That'll all be absolutely fine when everyone's got a milk float on charge overnight, of course. ;D

Electrics aren't my strong suit, I can wire a plug, know how to run cables to keep building control happy, but diversity loses me a bit.

Kevin, can you explain why you would have night time diversity that's different from peak, say when everyone turns on their oven, shower or kettle, which 80% of people do at the same time.  ???

Even if I get a 7kw wall box put in, that's still pulling less than when I have a shower, (9kw) or more to the point at 645am when loads of people put the shower on.

Essentially, they size the network and the substation that feeds it based on an assumption of what the average consumption of a house will be at various times of the day, knowing that it will be many times higher for relatively short periods of time during the day. Not everybody takes a shower at the same time, so a 9kw draw for a few minutes at a time doesn't cause a problem where there are other houses drawing very little energy. Over a development of a few hundred houses it all averages out to a reasonable current draw from the substation so everything can be rated for very little current in comparison to the maximum that each household could consume multiplied by the number of households. This reduction from the theoretical maximum current rating required (which is impractical) is called diversity.

The network can withstand short periods of substantial overload such as when sunday roasts are in the oven or when a popular TV programme ends and everyone puts the kettle on. This is fine as long as the network gets some time to recover, which is where the likely night time loading comes in. For a housing estate with gas central heating fitted, this can be very low. A few hours of light loading allows substations and underground cables to cool off (they are large items with considerable thermal inertia). The sizing of the infrastructure relies on this period and so a big change to the pattern of night time consumption across many homes would invalidate the diversity calculations and cause the local network to need to be resized if it is to remain reliable. A switch to charging electric cars at night is exactly the sort of change that would cause this.

Where I live the underground cable joints are gradually failing leading to a prolonged power cut if your on the same phase as the faulty joint, where they have to dig up the road & replace it. Much higher peak loadings & bigger temperature cycles aren't going to improve this reliability. :(
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #29 on: 13 August 2019, 23:11:25 »

Speaking of milk floats, I had a ride in a colleague's I3 today.

I have to say, with 4 big blokes shoe-horned into it, it was pretty nippy around town. We did have to be shoe-horned in, mind. :o

It's clear that weight saving has the main objective of the design. Most of the interior seems to be made from papier mache.

I won't be swapping the little blue pussy for one any time soon. ;)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #30 on: 13 August 2019, 23:35:29 »

100% torque from standstill is a very different torque curve compared with infernal combustion engines.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #31 on: 14 August 2019, 08:50:02 »

Speaking of milk floats, I had a ride in a colleague's I3 today.

I test drove one a while back - I thought it was the closest feeling to the (new shape .. 17 plate, maybe?) MX5 I drove at the release day; nippy gokart. Still didn't buy one because it won't drive to work and back ;D

As for this outage .. what kind of shoddy cloud hosting service are we paying for here, TB, hmm?


Oh, yeah, wait.. ;) ;D
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jimmy944

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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #32 on: 14 August 2019, 15:09:55 »

Speaking of milk floats, I had a ride in a colleague's I3 today.

I test drove one a while back - I thought it was the closest feeling to the (new shape .. 17 plate, maybe?) MX5 I drove at the release day; nippy gokart. Still didn't buy one because it won't drive to work and back ;D

A guy in my team had one and they are a pretty good car I think, but I didn't find them comfortable, so they were crossed off the list.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #33 on: 14 August 2019, 18:53:51 »

what kind of shoddy cloud hosting service are we paying for here, TB, hmm?
The only clouds round here are the dark, wet ones in the sky.
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #34 on: 14 August 2019, 20:04:44 »

what kind of shoddy cloud hosting service are we paying for here, TB, hmm?
The only clouds round here are the dark, wet ones in the sky.
Donít panic, we're all born waterproof ;)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #35 on: 14 August 2019, 20:13:25 »

what kind of shoddy cloud hosting service are we paying for here, TB, hmm?
The only clouds round here are the dark, wet ones in the sky.
Donít panic, we're all born waterproof ;)

Which is lucky as things would be messy otherwise..  ::)

If we didn't get washed down the plughole, we'd be leaving little puddles of ourselves everywhere on rainy days!  ;D
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #36 on: 14 August 2019, 22:48:13 »

what kind of shoddy cloud hosting service are we paying for here, TB, hmm?
The only clouds round here are the dark, wet ones in the sky.
Donít panic, we're all born waterproof ;)

Which is lucky as things would be messy otherwise..  ::)

If we didn't get washed down the plughole, we'd be leaving little puddles of ourselves everywhere on rainy days!  ;D

Certain members already do. ::)
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Re: Probable outage soon
« Reply #37 on: 14 August 2019, 23:01:41 »

what kind of shoddy cloud hosting service are we paying for here, TB, hmm?
The only clouds round here are the dark, wet ones in the sky.
Donít panic, we're all born waterproof ;)

Which is lucky as things would be messy otherwise..  ::)

If we didn't get washed down the plughole, we'd be leaving little puddles of ourselves everywhere on rainy days!  ;D

Certain members already do. ::)

True. Not being water tight is quite common.  :(
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