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[Lizzie Zoom]

If they wanted him dead, he could be. Before the kettle boils.
They obviously don't, so he isn't.

Same with Assad...

I was going to ask which they you meant, but it doesn't matter.


Assassinating your own leader without a workable replacement and the machinery to put them in place rarely works well.


Assassinating somebody else's leader NEVER works well for you or the other country.

.........................and going back to Hitler............. Churchill had a great plan, one that almost went ahead to assassinate Hitler, until everyone considered that removing him was worse than letting him stay on.  He was doing such a grand job anyway in ensuring Germany lost the war!

So, yes, there are always grave risks in removing a leader.

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

Strike on Guam? I dare say the US would have a fair chance of shooting it down,not so sure they have the ability to tackle missile(s) sent elsewhere. No star wars defence shield .

Your points 1 and 2 are indeed grim. Satanic state would have the money to obtain nuclear bombs and use them.

Strike on Guam?

That may be exactly what Trump and the USA want.  When Japan was flexing it's muscles in 1941 we know the US knew a strike on their Pacific forces was going to take place.  The conspiracy historians amoungst us, which includes me, believe Roosevelt and Churchill were just waiting for such a strike, and indeed, before the event, knew it would be on Pearl.  That would, and of course did, bring the isolationist US into the fight against Nazi Germany, and then the Axis forces in their entirety.  Result!

Trump means "Fire and fury, with power that the World has never seen before", and is just waiting for the excuse to strike at the political centre of N.Korea. Trump is no usual President, and will not conform to usual diplomatic practice.  He knows that only delays the inevitable, and has no teeth anyway.  I abhor war, but sometimes/ often in history a early warring strike is far better than pussy footing around that only leads to a greater conflict. This is such an example.

Put on your tin hats, it is going to be a rocky ride!

Sounds like you are much more comfortable with the 20-100m (or more if China is drawn in), largely civilian, deaths such a conflict will cause than I am. SK capital Seoul with a population of 25m is only 30 miles from DPRK border. In the event of war DPRK extensive number of artillery pieces and Grad MLRS will launch an immediate massive bombardment of Seoul using a combination of explosive, biological, chemical and quite probably tactical nuclear weapons.  They will then launch a massive invasion through an extensive network of secret tunnels, which SK and US will try to stop before they reach the southern coast. Read any of the several studies on this scenario and it is a sh*t sandwich all round where there are no good options or outcomes, deliberately so with the DPRK plans and tactics, only some are worse than others. All of the studies say the only people that call for the US to attack DPRK are those that know nothing of the very major difficulties and high casualties rates that will be involved.

I understand completely what you are saying Rod, but history has taught us to do nothing, or even worse, just keep talking endlessly to a leader bent on military action, only delays the inevitable, and when that inevitable transpires, the consequences are far worse than if real force had been used in the first place.  The free world must act with resolute determination now.

hmm...,  wasn't that what tony bliar said about saddam hussein?

didn't turn out so well as i recall

No, not quite.  But in any case just remember the Munich Crisis of 1938 and the subsequent Munich Agreement that Chamberlain boasted meant "Peace in our time".  You can talk, and talk with someone with aggressive intent, exhausting all diplomacy, and think you are coming away from it with a good deal (although Chamberlain doubted this as he returned to No. 10 from Munich) when all the time the one with "power" in his mind is planning attack. 

The "Boy" leading NK is now stating he is ready to launch "four" intermediate missiles towards Guam.  If you are the President of a nation with awesome fire power that if used fully would be "the likes that the World has never seen before" what would you now do?  Wait like the leaders of Britain and France did in 1938 into 1939 and be seen by the aggressor as being weak and just hot air until the inevitable happens?  Or strike first and make sure the aggressor knows you mean business, that in 1938 would have stopped Hitler from taking the opportunist steps he did that eventually led to WW2 on September 3rd 1939?

Talk is easy, but action by a leader of a great nation is never that.

History has shown time and time again that appeasement doesn't work. Which is why I (as a native of the country) have concerns about the longer term future of the relative peace in Northern Ireland.

[omega2018]

they cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. If they do they will hold the world to ransom, and we will all live in constant fear, at an even higher level than we did during the cold war.

too late i think

If you are the President of a nation with awesome fire power what would you now do?  Wait like the leaders of Britain and France did in 1938 into 1939 and be seen by the aggressor as being weak and just hot air until the inevitable happens?  Or strike first and make sure the aggressor knows you mean business, that in 1938 would have stopped Hitler from taking the opportunist steps he did that eventually led to WW2 on September 3rd 1939?

just swap the word "President" above for "Supreme Leader" and re-read that

[Lizzie Zoom]

they cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. If they do they will hold the world to ransom, and we will all live in constant fear, at an even higher level than we did during the cold war.

too late i think

If you are the President of a nation with awesome fire power what would you now do?  Wait like the leaders of Britain and France did in 1938 into 1939 and be seen by the aggressor as being weak and just hot air until the inevitable happens?  Or strike first and make sure the aggressor knows you mean business, that in 1938 would have stopped Hitler from taking the opportunist steps he did that eventually led to WW2 on September 3rd 1939?

just swap the word "President" above for "Supreme Leader" and re-read that

It doesn't work as The President of the USA does have massive firepower that the kid in NK can only dream about

[Migv6 le Frog Fan]

And despite all Trumps rhetoric, the U.S does have some democratic checks & balances which NK doesn't.

[Rods2]

There are a whole range of things that can be done between appeasement and nuclear war, which includes isolation, sanctions, diplomatic pressure, surgical strikes etc., etc. One of the big problems is that DPRK is supported by the Axis of Evil Russia, Iran and China and it shares borders with two of them. You would be surprised on how quickly the problem would be solved if the West started with a 100% border tax on all Chinese goods, that doubles it each time DPRK tests a nuke, fires a missile or threatens or cyber-attacks a Western Nation. DPRK can't survive very long without its constant Chinese support nor can the Chinese economy in its current form without the West's export market.

[BazaJT]

It seems to me that they're both trying to talk themselves into a corner where a shooting match is the only outcome.Kim Jong has to talk tough because you can bet there's someone in the wings waiting to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness and Donald has invested so much time slamming Obama et al for not being strong enough.Talks[behind the scenes possibly]to solve the issue where it appears both leaders have got the best deal whilst unlikely should be tried before too many buttons are pressed and there's no turning back.North Korea in a stand alone fight would I think be on a hiding to nothing,but if it came to a shooting war where would China and/or Russia stand?

[Rods2]

There is more than one way of skinning a cat. How to get rid of Kim without firing a shot.

Ex-Assistant of State worked on this under Obama.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/07/24/how-to-take-down-kim-jong-un-215411

 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Good article. 

[omega2018]

they cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. If they do they will hold the world to ransom, and we will all live in constant fear, at an even higher level than we did during the cold war.

too late i think

If you are the President of a nation with awesome fire power what would you now do?  Wait like the leaders of Britain and France did in 1938 into 1939 and be seen by the aggressor as being weak and just hot air until the inevitable happens?  Or strike first and make sure the aggressor knows you mean business, that in 1938 would have stopped Hitler from taking the opportunist steps he did that eventually led to WW2 on September 3rd 1939?

just swap the word "President" above for "Supreme Leader" and re-read that

It doesn't work as The President of the USA does have massive firepower that the kid in NK can only dream about

just 1 nuclear bomb is massive fire power in my book

[omega2018]

If they wanted him dead, he could be. Before the kettle boils.
They obviously don't, so he isn't.

Same with Assad...

not true it is very difficult to kill a dictator in their own country.  the us bombed every motorhome in iraq after saddam did a video from one, didn't get him. look how long it took them to find him after 'mission accomplished'.

[henryd]

If they wanted him dead, he could be. Before the kettle boils.
They obviously don't, so he isn't.

Same with Assad...

not true it is very difficult to kill a dictator in their own country.  the us bombed every motorhome in iraq after saddam did a video from one, didn't get him. look how long it took them to find him after 'mission accomplished'.

Not so sure its that difficult,someone offed his brother easily enough

[omega2018]

If they wanted him dead, he could be. Before the kettle boils.
They obviously don't, so he isn't.

Same with Assad...

not true it is very difficult to kill a dictator in their own country.  the us bombed every motorhome in iraq after saddam did a video from one, didn't get him. look how long it took them to find him after 'mission accomplished'.

Not so sure its that difficult,someone offed his brother easily enough

his brother wasn't a head of state just a bloke passing unprotected through a foreign airport.  easy .

[omega2018]

last major action in korea was Operation Paul Bunyan.  Took general stillwell 2 days to plan.  involved:

• the US going from DefCon 4 to defcon 3. 
• convoy of 23 vehicles with 813 soldiers.
• two 30-man security platoons
• a team of bridge demolition saboteurs
• a 64 man special forces company
• 20 utility helicopters and seven Cobra attack helicopters
• B-52 Stratofortresses, described as "nuclear ready" from Guam
• escorted by U.S. F-4 Phantom IIs , F-5 and F-86 fighters
• F-111 bombers of the 366th Tactical Fighter Wing  F-4 Phantoms C and D were also deployed
• The aircraft carrier USS Midway task force just offshore.
• the Second Battalion, 71st Air Defense Regiment armed with Hawk missiles
• In addition, 12,000 additional troops were ordered to Korea, including 1,800 Marines from Okinawa.[6] During the operation, nuclear-capable strategic bombers circled

What was the object?  To cut down a tree.  You couldn't make this stuff up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axe_murder_incident

[Lizzie Zoom]

last major action in korea was Operation Paul Bunyan.  Took general stillwell 2 days to plan.  involved:

• the US going from DefCon 4 to defcon 3. 
• convoy of 23 vehicles with 813 soldiers.
• two 30-man security platoons
• a team of bridge demolition saboteurs
• a 64 man special forces company
• 20 utility helicopters and seven Cobra attack helicopters
• B-52 Stratofortresses, described as "nuclear ready" from Guam
• escorted by U.S. F-4 Phantom IIs , F-5 and F-86 fighters
• F-111 bombers of the 366th Tactical Fighter Wing  F-4 Phantoms C and D were also deployed
• The aircraft carrier USS Midway task force just offshore.
• the Second Battalion, 71st Air Defense Regiment armed with Hawk missiles
• In addition, 12,000 additional troops were ordered to Korea, including 1,800 Marines from Okinawa.[6] During the operation, nuclear-capable strategic bombers circled

What was the object?  To cut down a tree.  You couldn't make this stuff up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axe_murder_incident

I note that was in 1976, so a long time ago.  However, as the Korean war has never been over, the killing of two American soldiers set off established reactions to a possible re-commencement of hostilities. This was during the Cold War and so the USA would not wish to be perceived as being weak and doing nothing.  Instead they launched a full response to a war like act of aggression.  This "report" should be of no surprise to us who lived through the Cold War.

Also remember this was just 14 years after the Cuban Missiles Crisis when we all came to the very brink of WW3 starting, and only the tough talking and action of the American President, J.F. Kennedy, to the Russian President, Khrushchev, narrowly avoided conflict. Indeed this started a  new understanding between the two super powers, with even the installation of a telephone hotline between the two on the suggestion of JFK.

So, the latest crisis is nothing new and, no doubt, Trump is considering what happened in 1962 and deciding on the "tough talking approach" that worked then.