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[Varche]

What do you think the future holds for us?

There is a school of thought that we will have perpetual cycles of lockdowns, new virus strains ( I am waiting for the “ Do it for Yorkshire” strain) , repeat vaccination.

I have just been talking to a Spanish neighbour who says nothing will change for a year! He might be right as vaccination process here is only just getting going. Brits might be vaccinated and think travel might be on the cards but South Europe won’t be open any day soon.

My own view is that we will end up wearing ( hopefully lightweight) space helmets with air handling packs. That wont help with normality returning but is only a small step up from wearing masks. Who would have thought 11 months ago we would be where we are now!

What do you think will be happening in six or twelve months time?

[Doctor Gollum]

That would be an extreme escalation of the over reaction that we already have.

All the extra hand washing and disinfectant we already endure only serves to make us more vulnerable, not less, to any bugs.

The mortality rates simply don't warrant such far fetched responses. Besides, PIGS cannot survive another season without tourism, and the EU cannot afford to carry them through when they themselves are destroying their own economies.

There's a valid case for trying to limit hospital admissions, but that's it, everything else is shortsighted reactionary politics and fear mongering.

[Rangie]

I don't think about it as "fear" more about avoidance fear is seeing your mate being blown in two by a landmine and wondering who is next or crawling through a pitch black drainage system hoping you find a way out, or being dropped in the sea with 35 kilos of kit on your back, I simply would like to avoid catching it from foolish people who want to go on planes or to the pub or other idiots who are trying to play the virus down.

[Doctor Gollum]

Neither of which were things that you claimed to would want to do anyway, so that's a moot point.

As for your ideas of fear, those things are accepted risks of military service and it would be unrealistic to ignore the possibility of them happening if a person were to join up. For example, if you join the Navy, there's a chance that the ship you're on might sink. If that bothers you, not joining the Navy might be a better option.

Anything that anyone might do has a level of risk attached, whether it's simply getting out of bed, running across a road, or clearing a minefield. The question then becomes one of acceptable risk.

[STEMO]

Just had a treadmill delivered (for wifey, not me!). So, along with her indoor bike, she can keep fit without having to encounter the great unwashed  Just got to set it up for her.
Her breathing still hasn't recovered properly from when she had covid in October so, hopefully, the treadmill will help with get her back to full fitness. She missed the great north run last year, for obvious reasons, but she's hoping it might go ahead around September this year. Personally, I don't think she should be doing it this year, but she is determined.

[Rangie]

Just had a treadmill delivered (for wifey, not me!). So, along with her indoor bike, she can keep fit without having to encounter the great unwashed  Just got to set it up for her.
Her breathing still hasn't recovered properly from when she had covid in October so, hopefully, the treadmill will help with get her back to full fitness. She missed the great north run last year, for obvious reasons, but she's hoping it might go ahead around September this year. Personally, I don't think she should be doing it this year, but she is determined.

. 

Good for her Steve keeping fit is the saviour of a lot of folk at the moment I'm a great believer in it , especially getting outdoors and getting some air into your lungs .

[STEMO]

Just had a treadmill delivered (for wifey, not me!). So, along with her indoor bike, she can keep fit without having to encounter the great unwashed  Just got to set it up for her.
Her breathing still hasn't recovered properly from when she had covid in October so, hopefully, the treadmill will help with get her back to full fitness. She missed the great north run last year, for obvious reasons, but she's hoping it might go ahead around September this year. Personally, I don't think she should be doing it this year, but she is determined.

. 

Good for her Steve keeping fit is the saviour of a lot of folk at the moment I'm a great believer in it , especially getting outdoors and getting some air into your lungs .

If I wasn't walking around 4-5 miles every day with the dog, I might have a go. 4kph would do me, I reckon 

[STEMO]

Did you hear that, Albs, 4 or 5 miles   

[Rangie]

My walking pace is around 3mph , don't do running anymore my knees are completely buggered, from rugby in my youth.

[Raeturbo]

My walking pace is around 3mph , don't do running anymore my knees are completely buggered, from rugby in my youth.

                 Mine too, one Knackered from motocross.

[Varche]

So what do you think it will be like in six or 12 months time.?

Exactly like it is now with endless cycles of lockdowns, new variants, and crucially forecasts of “ it will get better” . I remember first lockdown here. 3 weeks, then another three weeks, and so on. If they had said at the outset “ 3 months” there would have been a riot.

Or is there a way out?

[Doctor Gollum]

Stopping the lockdowns would be a start.

We could carry on as we are, but it will be years before anything improves.

Stopping the lockdowns and reopening everything, even if countries remain 'closed' to visitors until a certain percentage have been vaccinated, and things could be back to normal by the end of the year.

[Rangie]

So what do you think it will be like in six or 12 months time.?

Exactly like it is now with endless cycles of lockdowns, new variants, and crucially forecasts of “ it will get better” . I remember first lockdown here. 3 weeks, then another three weeks, and so on. If they had said at the outset “ 3 months” there would have been a riot.

Or is there a way out?

. 

I fear not Varche, it was simply not taken seriously enough in the United Kingdom, so it will be lockdown after lockdown , unless a miracle vaccine appears to combat the virus completely could take years something we will just have to get used to, but the idiots amongst will go on with their stupidity.

[dave the builder]

Stopping the lockdowns would be a start.


Stopping the lockdowns and reopening everything,

Did you not notice the second and third wave of infection, death and overwhelmed NHS when lockdown measures where lifted each time   
or do dead people not count if it's not you 

[Sir Tigger KC]

The first step in my opinion is for everyone including scientists, SAGE, governments, health services etc to accept that Covid is not going away and that we have to learn to live with it. 

I don't believe that we will ever achieve zero Covid and it will just become another illness that people get and some don't survive.  If the vaccines prevent transmission to an extent and boost peoples immune systems so that severe illness/death is less likely, meaning that health services are not overwhelmed, then they should drop the restrictions and let people get on with their lives as best we can.

God knows what the final excess death toll from untreated/late treated/undiagnosed cancers, or other illnesses like heart disease, strokes etc will be, but given the extremely loose definition of a Covid death, I bet it will be higher in the end. 

[Raeturbo]

I agree, it’s not ever going to go away completely and we’re going to have to live with it and fight it best we can, but it’s not the only thing killing people and we must not lose sight of that. No raising of restrictions until everyone has had the jab and very tight action on travel from overseas bearing in mind sometimes, to some travellers a big fine will not change their activities. Put all the things we’ve learned,washing,distance, etc and then get on with It.

[dave the builder]

The first step in my opinion is for everyone including scientists, SAGE, governments, health services etc to accept that Covid is not going away and that we have to learn to live with it. 

I don't believe that we will ever achieve zero Covid and it will just become another illness that people get and some don't survive.  If the vaccines prevent transmission to an extent and boost peoples immune systems so that severe illness/death is less likely, meaning that health services are not overwhelmed, then they should drop the restrictions and let people get on with their lives as best we can.

God knows what the final excess death toll from untreated/late treated/undiagnosed cancers, or other illnesses like heart disease, strokes etc will be, but given the extremely loose definition of a Covid death, I bet it will be higher in the end. 

I agree 

But we are not there yet ,we need to wait and hope the current vaccines ,restrictions etc cut the numbers right down to a manageable level before relaxing measures, opening pubs, holidays, etc

[Doctor Gollum]

Stopping the lockdowns would be a start.


Stopping the lockdowns and reopening everything,

Did you not notice the second and third wave of infection, death and overwhelmed NHS when lockdown measures where lifted each time   
or do dead people not count if it's not you 

That isn't quite what I said... On tother thread I pointed out that the lock downs in their current form clearly aren't working

As for people dying, that's a fact of life. When it happens to me, then so be it.

616,000 people died in 2018. That's almost 2,000 a day. Up until November last year, 569,000 had died, again, almost 2,000 a day.

I don't seem to recall 2018 being spent shut indoors.

Not disputing that there are more preferable ways to go, or that the NHS is so badly organised that it is annually overwhelmed by the seasonal flu, let alone a pandemic... But lockdown clearly doesn't work, so either seal EVERYONE indoors for a month or six and hope that Batflu magically dissappears...

Or let everything carry on as it was and learn to live with it in the same way as he have with everything else that comes along.

[Lizzie Zoom]

For centuries there have been plagues of one sort or another that have afflicted the human population and tried to wipe us out or at least reduce our numbers.

The viruses from the past are still with us and will never completely go away, just as scientists confirm that COVID 19 is now with us for ever.  All that can be done is to try and control these nasties by vaccination, like we do with flu every year for the elderly and vulnerable.

Human life will survive and go on until us ourselves destroy everything on Earth by way of a bomb or continuing to eradicate our environment.

[Varche]

Yes but that is passive response.

Smallpox and Rindpest were eradicated though probably exist in military lab stores.
 
Where do you see us 6 ,12 months time Lizzie? Restaurants open, flights back to normal ( there is certainly enough pent up demand) packed sports events ?  Or in and out of lockdowns?

[dave the builder]

616,000 people died in 2018. That's almost 2,000 a day. Up until November last year, 569,000 had died, again, almost 2,000 a day.

I don't seem to recall 2018 being spent shut indoors.

697,000 deaths in 2020 ,last year ,when Covid started ,
nearly 100 thousand more than expected (even BBC said 85,000 ages ago) ,
ONS says excess deaths may be north of 125 thousand IIRC
current covid death average is 1000 a day ,

Not disputing that there are more preferable ways to go, or that the NHS is so badly organised that it is annually overwhelmed by the seasonal flu, let alone a pandemic... But lockdown clearly doesn't work, so either seal EVERYONE indoors for a month or six and hope that Batflu magically dissappears...

Or let everything carry on as it was and learn to live with it in the same way as he have with everything else that comes along.

OR....
hope that track and trace plus vaccine rollout and current restrictions see the numbers drop to a manageable level ,which it isn't right now.

and to say lockdowns don't work is twaddle, they do work ,as can be seen by the graphs etc , they are just not working as well as everyone would hope ,probably because half the country are running round demanding pubs, shops etc be opened asap, holidays ,etc etc rather than doing all they can to stop the spread.

when levels are manageable again , local lockdowns should return ,along with much stricter enforcement and  track and trace to keep it under control.

kept under control, Covid could be manageable , like flu 

it could be under control in the UK in 6 months if EVERYONE for with the program
it won't be though 

[STEMO]

Another 1000 deaths today. It's definitely going down, but not quickly enough.

[Doctor Gollum]

By that reckoning, that's only 12 more days... Then what? They raise the 'target' again?

You can fudge the numbers any which way, but the 113,000 is the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test, NOT actual Covid deaths.

Likewise the 1,000 a day.

Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.

[dave the builder]

Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.

have you missed the wave effect, shown in the graphs for deaths ?
or are you being "obtuse" 
deaths ramp up, then they lockdown, then deaths drop ,pretty simple

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

[Doctor Gollum]

If you compare places that have been locked down with those that have not locked down, the difference in deaths per million are negligible.

As an aside, of the people genuinely afraid of this, how many smoke?

[Sir Tigger KC]

Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.

have you missed the wave effect, shown in the graphs for deaths ?
or are you being "obtuse" 
deaths ramp up, then they lockdown, then deaths drop ,pretty simple

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Lockdowns suppress the virus temporarily, but cannot be part of a permanent solution, and if the virus had originated in the US, UK, Australia or anywhere else in the democratic free world, I don't believe any government would have even considered shutting down their country to the same extent as they have.

I think with the new border controls, they are trying to make the UK into a 'bubble' like New Zealand or Australia.  I really can't see foreign travel getting back to normal any time soon, but I'm hopeful that domestically we can resume life almost as normal in the next couple of months as the vaccinations are rolled out.

[Doctor Gollum]

Unfortunately, what should happen and what will happen are mutually exclusive

[TheBoy]

As an aside, of the people genuinely afraid of this, how many smoke?

That comment surprises me, given you think the sniffle is a mere trifle of a problem.  Even in 2021 it has not been proven that smoking causes premature death.  And by god people have tried to.


Trouble with lockdowns is large sections of society suddenly believe rules dont apply to them, or its somehow against their rights.  Just travel into the inner suburbs on London, or Birmingham, or Manchester (and I'm sure loads more places I haven't witnessed), and you'll see there is no lockdown.

[Lizzie Zoom]

Yes but that is passive response.

Smallpox and Rindpest were eradicated though probably exist in military lab stores.
 
Where do you see us 6 ,12 months time Lizzie? Restaurants open, flights back to normal ( there is certainly enough pent up demand) packed sports events ?  Or in and out of lockdowns?

Without knowing what the scientist know it would be foolish and pointless to guess where we are all going to be.  Who knows what will happen next and unless someone can look into the future we just do not know

[Rangie]

We are really lucky here when we go walking which is every day for between one or two hours at a time we never see a soul which is brilliant for us , on the odd occasion we may see another dog walker but distancing is always observed, would really hate to reside in a large town or city now.

[Doctor Gollum]

As an aside, of the people genuinely afraid of this, how many smoke?

That comment surprises me, given you think the sniffle is a mere trifle of a problem.  Even in 2021 it has not been proven that smoking causes premature death.  And by god people have tried to.


Trouble with lockdowns is large sections of society suddenly believe rules dont apply to them, or its somehow against their rights.  Just travel into the inner suburbs on London, or Birmingham, or Manchester (and I'm sure loads more places I haven't witnessed), and you'll see there is no lockdown.

Smoking itself might not be fatal, but it probably won't help lung function any if you do catch a respiratory disease.

I will revise my question to this:

Of the people who have died from Batflu, what percentage smoked or have smoked?

[Lizzie Zoom]

As an aside, of the people genuinely afraid of this, how many smoke?

That comment surprises me, given you think the sniffle is a mere trifle of a problem.  Even in 2021 it has not been proven that smoking causes premature death.  And by god people have tried to.


Trouble with lockdowns is large sections of society suddenly believe rules dont apply to them, or its somehow against their rights.  Just travel into the inner suburbs on London, or Birmingham, or Manchester (and I'm sure loads more places I haven't witnessed), and you'll see there is no lockdown.

Are you a member of the Flat Earth Society TB?

I have known all too many, including those within our family circle who smoked heavily, as almost everyone did once, who died prematurely from cancer which was blamed on their smoking habit.  One relative who was warned repeatedly about what his heavy smoking habit was doing to his body, would not stop.  He lost both legs and one arm was getting bad, then he died "due to smoking" his doctors said.

Another friend of mine, a heavy smoker all his life, is now fighting to breath and has been put on very strong medication.  He knows, and has been told, he has not long to live


 

[Lizzie Zoom]

Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.

have you missed the wave effect, shown in the graphs for deaths ?
or are you being "obtuse" 
deaths ramp up, then they lockdown, then deaths drop ,pretty simple

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Yes, and that fact was made clear again by the PM during his press conference today.  The fall in numbers of infections / deaths has yet to be due to vaccination.   

It is down to lock down!

[Varche]

Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.

have you missed the wave effect, shown in the graphs for deaths ?
or are you being "obtuse" 
deaths ramp up, then they lockdown, then deaths drop ,pretty simple

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Lockdowns suppress the virus temporarily, but cannot be part of a permanent solution, and if the virus had originated in the US, UK, Australia or anywhere else in the democratic free world, I don't believe any government would have even considered shutting down their country to the same extent as they have.

I think with the new border controls, they are trying to make the UK into a 'bubble' like New Zealand or Australia.  I really can't see foreign travel getting back to normal any time soon, but I'm hopeful that domestically we can resume life almost as normal in the next couple of months as the vaccinations are rolled out.

Good idea with border controls. You can keep your special British variant.!

[Doctor Gollum]

No, the higher infection (and death) rates are down to the virility of the new mutations, inspite the lockdown.

[dave the builder]

Smoking itself might not be fatal, but it probably won't help lung function any if you do catch a respiratory disease.

I will revise my question to this:

Of the people who have died from Batflu, what percentage smoked or have smoked?

I smoke ,but I've not died of Covid or smoking ,Yet 

I did look into smoking with relation to Covid a while back,
at one stage, early on , France banned online sales of Nicotine patches, gum etc ,so they could use them as a treatment because there was some evidence ,albeit a small study about smokers being less prone to catching covid .
back then, people who smoked where less likely to catch covid than those who didn't smoke BUT some that did catch covid had a bad case of it .
not sure on figures with regards death from covid who smoked

google says "A review of 279 studies found that current smokers were at less risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 than never smokers, while former smokers were at a greater risk of severe disease and hospitalization than never smokers."

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201201/Does-smoking-increase-risk-of-COVID-19-hospitalization.aspx

so I'll continue to smoke until long term data about covid is available   
after that ,if I'm still alive  i'll decide then 

[Kevin Wood]

Lockdowns suppress the virus temporarily, but cannot be part of a permanent solution, and if the virus had originated in the US, UK, Australia or anywhere else in the democratic free world, I don't believe any government would have even considered shutting down their country to the same extent as they have.

I think with the new border controls, they are trying to make the UK into a 'bubble' like New Zealand or Australia.  I really can't see foreign travel getting back to normal any time soon, but I'm hopeful that domestically we can resume life almost as normal in the next couple of months as the vaccinations are rolled out.

I must admit, I'm struggling to see why "foreign travel" is still a thing. They've told me not to leave my house except for essential journeys. What have they told these people who are apparently swanning in and out of the country with gay abandon? 

[Doctor Gollum]

Apparently Captain Tom went to Barbados on official business.

Doesn't explain the constant stream of private jets running around though. 

[STEMO]

Lockdowns suppress the virus temporarily, but cannot be part of a permanent solution, and if the virus had originated in the US, UK, Australia or anywhere else in the democratic free world, I don't believe any government would have even considered shutting down their country to the same extent as they have.

I think with the new border controls, they are trying to make the UK into a 'bubble' like New Zealand or Australia.  I really can't see foreign travel getting back to normal any time soon, but I'm hopeful that domestically we can resume life almost as normal in the next couple of months as the vaccinations are rolled out.

I must admit, I'm struggling to see why "foreign travel" is still a thing. They've told me not to leave my house except for essential journeys. What have they told these people who are apparently swanning in and out of the country with gay abandon? 

I find that ignoring what everyone else says and doing what I think is right for me and others works perfectly.

[Doctor Gollum]

Lockdowns suppress the virus temporarily, but cannot be part of a permanent solution, and if the virus had originated in the US, UK, Australia or anywhere else in the democratic free world, I don't believe any government would have even considered shutting down their country to the same extent as they have.

I think with the new border controls, they are trying to make the UK into a 'bubble' like New Zealand or Australia.  I really can't see foreign travel getting back to normal any time soon, but I'm hopeful that domestically we can resume life almost as normal in the next couple of months as the vaccinations are rolled out.

I must admit, I'm struggling to see why "foreign travel" is still a thing. They've told me not to leave my house except for essential journeys. What have they told these people who are apparently swanning in and out of the country with gay abandon? 

I find that ignoring what everyone else says and doing what I think is right for me and others works perfectly.

You and 68 million other people