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General Discussion Area / Re: Article 50
« on: 25 June 2016, 14:40:46 »My guess is if we piss about for too long the other 27 countries will vote and then implement article 50 for us.
And we will.
Here's my prediction for the next 12months:
For the next three months we get to watch the Conservative party tear itself apart electing a new leader.
Whichever ambitious opportunist gets the job will spend the first month publicly congratulating everyone how it's going to be great.
His second month will consist of him realising that he's grabbed a poisoned chalice, and that nobody has any idea of what to do.
There will six months of allegiances, bust ups, whinging, and posturing but no useful work being done. Typical politics.
And then the EU will demand a final exit date. And having used up whatever goodwill we might currently have, any negotiations won't go well for us.
Short term, say 2 years, nothing much will change.
Medium term, 2 to 10 years, we're oppsed.
Long term after that, who knows? We might come out of it with a new King, strong government, healthy economy, effective relations with the rest of the world and an endless supply of sparkling rhubarb wine to celebrate with. Of those, only one has any certainty.
You missed one bit. Then that leader of the Tories will get the boot. The next election with a new party leader will be fought on a platform of overturning the still in limbo exit. We will go back having never actually left but on worse terms than we had. They have already worsened a bit.
My post was already turning into too much of a rant, so I omitted that part. It will be one of the medium term problems.
This is going to be a difficult process, with many unpopular decisions to be made. That will require strong leadership and the political clout to enforce it. So far nobody has shown any. That's the main reason that the Leave campaign convinced me to vote Remain.
I hope that I'm wrong about all this, and that our government(and the rest of us!) can make it work.
) the noise.
