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Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 18:23:20

Title: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 18:23:20
Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU didn't mention it.

.......where the f*ck has it come from? :-\

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 18:29:30
Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU didn't mention it.

.......where the f*ck has it come from? :-\

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.
We can say we're a bit skint and pay a pound a week.....apparently.  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: biggriffin on 31 August 2017, 18:38:53
Saw the thread, and thought what's the Lord done now, that's a few laptops.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 18:50:33
Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU d

idn't mention it.

.......where the f*ck has it come from? :-\

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.
We can say we're a bit skint and pay a pound a week.....apparently.  ;D

Worth a try but I reckon the EU will insist on £5 a week. A pound a week will take 2 billion years to repay.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 31 August 2017, 19:04:38
It looks like the country will get a CCJ, but as we're removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ who will hand down the judgement and send the bailiffs in?  :-\  ::)  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:05:22
Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU d

idn't mention it.

.......where the f*ck has it come from? :-\

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.
We can say we're a bit skint and pay a pound a week.....apparently.  ;D

Worth a try but I reckon the EU will insist on £5 a week. A pound a week will take 2 billion years to repay.
Perhaps we could manage the £5 a week if Slim Phil put one percent on income tax?
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 19:07:47
It looks like the country will get a CCJ, but as we're removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ who will hand down the judgement and send the bailiffs in?  :-\  ::)  ;D

I suppose we could pay the EU by using the £350 million each week that has been doing directly to the NHS for the last 15 months. :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: ronnyd on 31 August 2017, 19:14:18
Can,t we just let the clock run down and leave for nothing? Bit like overpaid footballers contracts. :P
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 19:16:35
Can,t we just let the clock run down and leave for nothing? Bit like overpaid footballers contracts. :P

I suppose we could tell the EU 'to go f*ck themselves' and see what happens.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 31 August 2017, 19:17:28
The BBC took their usual pessimistic stance in the 7.00 news on R2 saying that Sterling had declined against the US dollar and the Euro today on the news that the EU/UK talks weren't going well.  ::)

What they didn't inform the nation was that in afternoon trading Sterling regained almost all the mornings losses against the USD and that  the value of Sterling against the Euro has been volatile ie it's been up and down like a whores drawers all day!  ::)  ;)  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:19:08
It looks like the country will get a CCJ, but as we're removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ who will hand down the judgement and send the bailiffs in?  :-\  ::)  ;D
True...but then our credit rating will suffer and we'll only be able to borrow at one zillion percent.
I wouldn't worry. Just watch Emmerdale and forget about it.  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 19:21:09
The BBC took their usual pessimistic stance in the 7.00 news on R2 saying that Sterling had declined against the US dollar and the Euro today on the news that the EU/UK talks weren't going well.  ::)

What they didn't inform the nation was that in afternoon trading Sterling regained almost all the mornings losses against the USD and that  the value of Sterling against the Euro has been volatile ie it's been up and down like a whores drawers all day!  ::)  ;)  ;D

They usually take them off once and then keep them in their handbag. :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 19:23:15
It looks like the country will get a CCJ, but as we're removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ who will hand down the judgement and send the bailiffs in?  :-\  ::)  ;D
True...but then our credit rating will suffer and we'll only be able to borrow at one zillion percent.
I wouldn't worry. Just watch Emmerdale and forget about it.  ;D

Piss poor even by soap standards. Loved by nosey old women. :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:26:11
It looks like the country will get a CCJ, but as we're removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ who will hand down the judgement and send the bailiffs in?  :-\  ::)  ;D
True...but then our credit rating will suffer and we'll only be able to borrow at one zillion percent.
I wouldn't worry. Just watch Emmerdale and forget about it.  ;D

Piss poor even by soap standards. Loved by nosey old women. :)
How do you know? That it's piss poor, I mean? Or loved by nosey old women? Done yer research 'ave yer?
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: ronnyd on 31 August 2017, 19:26:37
Davis is a lot more upbeat than Barnier that,s for sure. ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:29:57
Davis is a lot more upbeat than Barnier that,s for sure. ;D
These continentals have got no sense of humour at all. Miserable bastards.  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 19:31:14
It looks like the country will get a CCJ, but as we're removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ who will hand down the judgement and send the bailiffs in?  :-\  ::)  ;D
True...but then our credit rating will suffer and we'll only be able to borrow at one zillion percent.
I wouldn't worry. Just watch Emmerdale and forget about it.  ;D

Piss poor even by soap standards. Loved by nosey old women. :)
How do you know? That it's piss poor, I mean? Or loved by nosey old women? Done yer research 'ave yer?

Caught ten minutes of it recently. Wooden acting, pitiful scripts about country folk with their hands up a cow's arse.

......and I thought Crossroads with that big ginger lesbian was about as bad as it could get. :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:33:25
No animals in Emmerdale, I'm afraid. You're telling porkies, aren't you?
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 19:35:57
No animals in Emmerdale, I'm afraid. You're telling porkies, aren't you?

Emmerdale Farm. Surely there must be farm animals for the locals to penetrate. :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:52:03
No animals in Emmerdale, I'm afraid. You're telling porkies, aren't you?

Emmerdale Farm. Surely there must be farm animals for the locals to penetrate. :)
Emmerdale Farm? Not been called that for donks. There's no farms now, just drug addicts, murderers, con men....the usual soap opera fayre.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 31 August 2017, 19:55:06
Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU didn't mention it.

.......where the f*ck has it come from? :-\

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.

It came from the madmen who think they are capable of running a continent, deciding they had the right to make us pay a huge sum of money because we decided to leave their club.
It has no legal or factual basis whatsoever. They are hoping we are mug enough to say "ok that's fine, how would you like paying ?"
Barnier appears to be being as deliberately awkward as he possibly can at every opportunity.
This makes me think he is playing one of two tactics.
Number one being, keep at it until the very last minute possible, and hope that pressure within the UK forces the Govt. to cave in to all the EU demands.
Number two being, make it impossible for any kind of deal to be done, so the Govt. has no real option but to leave with no deal, and have a prearranged chorus of deafening derision, from the usual suspects, about how this will destroy the UK overnight, and we absolutely must have a second referendum now we are about to fall into the abyss.
Its interesting to note that Blair was in Brussels last week for talks with Juncker. No doubt advising on how to do the maximum damage to his own country.
I do wish we could reintroduce the death penalty for treason.  ::)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: STEMO on 31 August 2017, 19:56:53
I think we should have a referendum on whether we should have another referendum. That would confuse the bastards.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 31 August 2017, 20:22:59
Don't laugh, it could easily happen.  ::) :D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 31 August 2017, 20:51:03
No animals in Emmerdale, I'm afraid. You're telling porkies, aren't you?

Emmerdale Farm. Surely there must be farm animals for the locals to penetrate. :)
Emmerdale Farm? Not been called that for donks. There's no farms now, just drug addicts, murderers, con men....the usual soap opera fayre.
[/quote

Annie (Ma) Sugden must be turning in her grave. :D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Varche on 31 August 2017, 20:59:05
Remember

No deal is better than a bad deal.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: New POD on 31 August 2017, 21:05:22
WE should ask Derek Hatton to negotiate.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 31 August 2017, 21:07:00
Umm why ???  ???
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 31 August 2017, 21:16:44
Remember

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Where a bad deal is worse than no deal, this is absolutely right!  :y
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Varche on 31 August 2017, 22:06:35
Any children involved in this divorce?  No, clean break then.

Lets see a list of these obligations?

No one has mentioned the value of assets yet?

Maybe Blair was there valuing the assets ? Cannot think what else he is doing there!
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Kevin Wood on 31 August 2017, 23:03:23

Maybe Blair was there valuing the assets ? Cannot think what else he is doing there!

I guess he's sniffed out an opportunity to either enrich himself further or get his mug in the news. ::)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: ronnyd on 31 August 2017, 23:29:47
With us leaving, B Liars dream of the EU presidency is in tatters. Oh dear me, what a shame. :'( :'( ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Rods2 on 31 August 2017, 23:32:38
Albs is correct we are leaving a club and when we do no further subs are due. We may decide to have a transitional arrangement and make further payments during this period and we may decide to make a small good will payment but that surely must depend upon concluding a trade agreement first. Where there is considerable friction in Eastern Europe where Brussels is trying to impose refugee quotas, when they lose their subsidies they may decide they are better off joining the UK in EFTA. A trade club that does not try to be an ever closer union dysfunctional country with half a currency called the Euro.

The divorce bill is very easily dealt with. The EU where they are appointed don't have to worry about the ballot box, the Government's of member states do. It is very easy to divide and conqueror where WTO tariffs are high for automobiles and agricultural products. There is global overcapacity in car manufacturing and food, which will hit the Germans, French and Spanish hard if no trade agreement is reached and we do low ideally no tariff deals with the rest of the world to be signed within a few days of leaving. We may also be able to apply tariff quotas so anything above a certain amount goes to an even higher rate. Then make the UK corporation tax very low say 10% or even o% and watch all of the Eire and Luxemburg companies relocate to the UK. Of course, the French and Spanish farmers won't be complaining to their government, oh no, they will be telling well done our governments and the Brits where we love watching our food rot in fields and the German car makers will be doing the same when we buy our much cheaper ROW cars where they can create fields of unsold cars on new set aside land full of unsold rotting crops. The Germans might be able to clear the fields of cars a bit to all the richer African, South American, Aussie and New Zealand farmers where they are supplying food to the UK instead. :o :o :o

If they want to play high stakes poker we can do the same, but they do need to remember they sell much more to us than we do to them. Personally, I would rather not play trade war games where both sides will be major losers, but if they insist they will leave us with no choice. In the short term we will lose a bigger percentage of our exports, but as we rebalance our economy towards the rest of the world Europe will be the biggest long term loser. In Ukraine Russia-Ukraine import export market was their biggest and has now all but disappeared leading to a sharp 2014 onwards recession. It has taken Ukraine about 2 years to rebalance their economy towards the ROW and they are now growing strongly, so expect the same in the UK.

Personally, I think the French (Macron is already making noises on this) and Germans will take charge as they won't want the political fallout from losing a big part of the UK market.

Divorces are as clean and cheap or as difficult and expensive as both parties make them. Both come out of it much better if they go the clean and cheap route. :y :y :y
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Kevin Wood on 01 September 2017, 08:31:30
With us leaving, B Liars dream of the EU presidency is in tatters. Oh dear me, what a shame. :'( :'( ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Shame. Oh, well, there's still his dream of achieving peace in the middle east. ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: TheBoy on 01 September 2017, 10:57:01
Boris and his bus didn't mention it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Cameron and his gang didn't mention it.

Even the EU didn't mention it.


.......where the f*ck has it come from? :-\

One hundred thousand million pounds is a huge amount of money.
It was mentioned before the referendum that there would be a significant, though undisclosed, financial penalty to pay, but the mainstream media and Farage knobjockeys had other agendas.  Said people we also under a dillusion that the UK would be able to make deals with individual EU member states at the time as well.


I remember speaking to some friends before the debate, and they were unware of this, so clearly the usual suspects weren't giving their audience a balanced view.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: TheBoy on 01 September 2017, 11:02:20
The BBC took their usual pessimistic stance in the 7.00 news on R2 saying that Sterling had declined against the US dollar and the Euro today on the news that the EU/UK talks weren't going well.  ::)

What they didn't inform the nation was that in afternoon trading Sterling regained almost all the mornings losses against the USD and that  the value of Sterling against the Euro has been volatile ie it's been up and down like a whores drawers all day!  ::)  ;)  ;D
And being in a position where I might need some Euros, its fair to say, the pound is pretty well oppsed.

Fortunately, because it was blindingly obvious what was going to happen once the referendum results came in, I bought a bucket load of euros.  Sadly, clearly I've been on too many euro trips, as I'm down to my last €700, so need to buy some for next week.  €1.04 per £1, so I won't be buying many...   ...though I suspect it still has room to go much lower :(
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Varche on 01 September 2017, 11:38:43
The BBC took their usual pessimistic stance in the 7.00 news on R2 saying that Sterling had declined against the US dollar and the Euro today on the news that the EU/UK talks weren't going well.  ::)

What they didn't inform the nation was that in afternoon trading Sterling regained almost all the mornings losses against the USD and that  the value of Sterling against the Euro has been volatile ie it's been up and down like a whores drawers all day!  ::)  ;)  ;D
And being in a position where I might need some Euros, its fair to say, the pound is pretty well oppsed.

Fortunately, because it was blindingly obvious what was going to happen once the referendum results came in, I bought a bucket load of euros.  Sadly, clearly I've been on too many euro trips, as I'm down to my last €700, so need to buy some for next week.  €1.04 per £1, so I won't be buying many...   ...though I suspect it still has room to go much lower :(

That is the general view on expat forums. Short term to keep going down. Euroland growth figures yesterday were good. Not much good news coming out of Britain at the moment. A lot of expats suffering if they are reliant on UK sterling pensions.

latest today https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7444-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-could-see-more-gains-as-market-rounds-on-euro
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 01 September 2017, 14:08:11
It was actually the Remain side who put out the story that we would be dealing with 27 separate European countries. They said it would be impossibly complicated to do.
The pound was known to be overvalued and due a correction, before the referendum. However it has since dropped below the level it needed to for the correction.
This is due to uncertainty, which the markets do not like. Most of the uncertainty comes from remoaners such as the BBC ignoring any good news and grossly exaggerating any bad news.That coupled with the EU deliberately throwing spanners in the works every step of the way is making things look a bit on the bleak side.
I would have thought that all but the hardest of remainers should now be getting pissed off with Juncker, Barnier etc. and the way they are going about this process.
They are self evidently not interested in whats best for their own countries, never mind ours, or have any sense of right / wrong / decency/ fair play.
If I wasn't already convinced we should leave, I would be now after their recent disgraceful shenanigans.
In the longer term I have not doubt whatsoever that we will do just fine, and their precious undemocratic, economically illogical empire will collapse around their ears.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 01 September 2017, 16:35:23
I can't see how the 'negotiations' will go anywhere at the moment, as the EU have boxed themselves into a corner assuming that the UK would simply pay and do whatever they demanded to get on with trade talks.  ::)

Given their notorious intransigence, I can't see them changing their attitude either as this will involve much loss of face, and every time I see Michel Barnier looking irritated at a press conference, it makes me smile as it's clear to me that the talks arn't going as he planned!  :)







Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: TheBoy on 01 September 2017, 17:27:47
I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 01 September 2017, 17:56:35
Recessions are cyclical, usually we get one each decade. So I would agree we are due another one, when we haven't yet fully recovered from the last one, although it isn't completely inevitable.
Brexit negotiations will decide the future of the EU project though whatever happens. There will be a power struggle over the outcome between the Eurocrats who are only interested in "the project", and European business who want to continue to freely sell their products and services to the UK.
The Eurocrats want to punish the UK for having the audacity to leave, even if it seriously damages European economies in the process, as a successful post Brexit UK is their worst nightmare.
Vag BMW, Mercedes, Fiat, Citreon, Renault, Peugeot (and that is just one industry) have no interest in this. They want to run successful businesses without being hamstrung by politicians, who are almost by definition, too stupid to run a corner shop, never mind a global business.
We shall see who appears to have won at the end of the process, but I cant see any long term outcome other than business being the winner.
Stupid politicians need money to waste, and they need businesses to generate it so they can take it from them and squander it.
The markets always decide in the end. Theres no way around it.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 01 September 2017, 18:00:15
I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

I have to publish this again as it all feels just like this still:

Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
   Someone had blundered.
   Theirs not to make reply,
   Theirs not to reason why,
   Theirs but to do and die.
   Into the valley of Death
   Rode the six hundred.

III
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
   Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
   Rode the six hundred.

Extract from Alfred, Lord Tennyson's great poem of a fateful charge because others had got their communications all wrong!
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: TheBoy on 01 September 2017, 18:08:47
Recessions are cyclical, usually we get one each decade. So I would agree we are due another one, when we haven't yet fully recovered from the last one, although it isn't completely inevitable.
I have never disagreed that leaving the EU was right (or wrong), it was just the timing was completely the wrong time to leave. Its forced us into a recession at the time we could not afford it, and just when we were starting to make progress on on reducing the deficit. And nobody else is in recession. So this one is self inflicted. Unnecessarily.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 01 September 2017, 18:20:20
I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

No I don't agree that we're going into recession, difficult times ahead for sure but not recession.  I think the UK's economy will continue to grow, but the growth will be weak at about 1% annually for the next few years while the country adjusts to life outside the EU.  :)

Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 01 September 2017, 20:15:56
With us leaving, B Liars dream of the EU presideny is in tatters. Oh dear me, what a shame. :'( :'( ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Shame. Oh, well, there's still his dream of achieving peace in the middle east. ;D
Perhaps he will move to French France and become French... Afterall, being a smug, delusional tunc, he should fit right in ::)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 01 September 2017, 20:45:17
Best post Ive read this year.  :y ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: TheBoy on 02 September 2017, 09:12:02
I think it shows that those heavily promoting Leave hadn't thought things through sufficiently.  Everything that has happened has been completely predictable, even to a village idiot like me.  And there is far, far worse to come. Although not in official figures yet, we're going into another recession. Personal debt is climbing. Our pensions are all oppsed, including those with defined benefit/final salary, because they are even more unaffordable now we are in recession again, causing a longer period of low interest rates, which is clearly unhealthy for the economy, and will demand more austerity in a country thats getting a bit weary to it.

No I don't agree that we're going into recession, difficult times ahead for sure but not recession.  I think the UK's economy will continue to grow, but the growth will be weak at about 1% annually for the next few years while the country adjusts to life outside the EU.  :)
Anybody working in an industry selling stuff to end customers will tell you we're already there ;).  All retailers with shareholders are having to publically downgrade projections, and quite a lot are issuing profits warnings...   ...obviously with one-off excuses just to reduce private shareholder jitter.

Another strange thing I can see from bro's figures is more people seem to be buying on debit cards, away from credit cards.  This is often seen during recessions as (sensible) people only buy what they can afford.


And when the end customers stop spending, the whole house of cards falls over.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Lizzie Zoom on 02 September 2017, 16:02:37
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell...................rode all of us!! ::) ::) ::) :P
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Rods2 on 02 September 2017, 19:17:09
UK's biggest problem is time, where we fall off the Article 50 cliff in March 2019. As I have previously written, I can't see how enough of the crucial details can be worked out by then, so we need a transition agreement and I suspect this will need to be more like three years than one where you can't unpick 40 years of integration and lost administrative skills in 5 minutes. Even a transition arrangement needs much work as all things cease in March 2019 and even with a transition agreement how all things work within the agreement will have to be confirmed.

We are also getting towards the end of the current economic cycle which I personally think will end before March 2019. The current pound weakness and much-needed correction mean UK industrial output is very buoyant at the moment. :y :y :y

Personally, if there is a recession in 2019 it is worth it where in the longer term we will be much better off, especially when the EU eventually falls apart. :y :y :y
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 04 September 2017, 09:55:06
I was watching The Andrew Marr Show last night on iplayer and he was interviewing Labours BREXIT bod Kier Starmer, who was explaining Labours recent policy U-Turn on the Single Market and Customs Union as a 'policy development'!  ::)

He was also saying that Britain needs a transitional period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union for an unspecified amount of time.  Other Labour figures such as Tom Watson and Chuka Umunna have indicted that this state of affairs could be permanent. Beyond this the Labour party don't seem to have any vision for BREXIT Britain.  ::)

A transitional period is supported by British politicians of all stripes, but it occurred to me that no EU politicians have indicated that this will be necessary.  Has anyone heard Junker, Merkel, Tusk, Macron etc mention this?  ???  :-\

I think that come 30th March 2019 we'll be booted out on our ear.......  but we might be £100bn better off!  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Varche on 04 September 2017, 11:15:41
How about £100 billion divorce bill

Transitional period of say twenty years during which time we cannot agree any trade deals

Norway style trade system for those twenty years

Continue paying into Eu for 20 years.

Everyone would be happy.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 04 September 2017, 11:41:08
Brexit, if and when it happens, will be so watered-down as to be meaningless.

The whole episode has become one giant clusterf*ck. :-\
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 04 September 2017, 11:53:30
Barnier said yesterday that his job is to educate the British as to what it means to leave the EU.
I really do wonder of the commission have told him to put us in a position where we just walk away, and then conspire with the remainers in this country to throw the whole thing into complete chaos, so the referendum result either doesn't happen, or they get to have another one, as is standard EU practice when the electorate give the wrong answer.  :-\
That would seem to be a high risk strategy, but they certainly don't seem to be carrying out serious, meaningful negotiations thus far.  ::)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 04 September 2017, 11:58:50
How about £100 billion divorce bill

Transitional period of say twenty years during which time we cannot agree any trade deals

Norway style trade system for those twenty years

Continue paying into Eu for 20 years.

Everyone The Establishment and Big Business would be happy.  ::)

FTFY Snr!  :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 04 September 2017, 12:01:46
I doubt the EU as we know it will exist in 20 years.  :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 04 September 2017, 12:34:48
I read an article recently (I think it was either on Reuters or Bloomberg) about Singapore's experience of dealing with the EU and despite talks concluding in 2014 after 4 years, there was then a drawn out decision from the ECJ about whether the deal could be ratified soley by the EU Commission or whether it had to be ratified by the 38 Parliaments and Assemblies across the EU.

The ruling which came in May 2017 was that it had to be ratified by the various Parliaments and Assemblies.  We all know what happened with the Canadian deal (CETA) when Wallonia objected!  Who'd heard of Wallonia before this!  ;D

The point of the article though was that apparently Singapore is considering renegotiating the deal with the EU as it is a less attractive proposition without the UK in the picture.  The journalist was speculating whether other countries with EU FTA's will do the same, as they might see the EU as weakened without Britain on board.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Varche on 04 September 2017, 13:08:08
Barnier said yesterday that his job is to educate the British as to what it means to leave the EU.
I really do wonder of the commission have told him to put us in a position where we just walk away, and then conspire with the remainers in this country to throw the whole thing into complete chaos, so the referendum result either doesn't happen, or they get to have another one, as is standard EU practice when the electorate give the wrong answer.  :-\
That would seem to be a high risk strategy, but they certainly don't seem to be carrying out serious, meaningful negotiations thus far.  ::)

The minute the resultrs of the vote were announced I said that the establishment had made a terrible mistake in a) allowing the vote and b) it going the wrong way and that they would work tirelessly behind the scenes to ensure it never came to pass. I still stand by that
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 04 September 2017, 13:27:54
I don't doubt any of that for one minute. However, they also have to take into account what the consequences of that will be.
I know people who argued as strongly for remain as I did for leave, who have told me they will take to the streets and march side by side with leave voters if the vote is overturned by political skulduggery, because the point leavers made about it being an undemocratic empire will be irrefutably proven to them.
And Democracy is far more important than any of their arguments to remain.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Varche on 04 September 2017, 13:42:43
Quite correct.

That will be the trick though , managing that through to its conclusion. I must admit I was surprised that May said she was staying on to fight another election. I expected her to be replaced in a (possibly this year) party conference leadership election with a softer candidate. Problem is, being blunt about it, there aren't any great politicians around nowadays and certainly not in the Tory party. Please don't say Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg.  ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Kevin Wood on 04 September 2017, 14:01:28
Quite correct.

That will be the trick though , managing that through to its conclusion. I must admit I was surprised that May said she was staying on to fight another election. I expected her to be replaced in a (possibly this year) party conference leadership election with a softer candidate. Problem is, being blunt about it, there aren't any great politicians around nowadays and certainly not in the Tory party. Please don't say Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg.  ;D

Indeed.

.. and anyone with ambitions, competent or not, would do well to keep their powder dry until this current fustercluck is consigned to history and the flying excrement has all stuck to May. ;D
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Rods2 on 04 September 2017, 14:09:28
Reading about the negotiations to date and the EU constant undermining of the talks through leaks and discussions with the remoaner press, it dawned on me that the EU has no intention of agreeing any deal except on things that directly affect them like migrant rights and cross border health system payments. What the UK now needs to urgently start doing is planning for this by getting trade agreements agreed in principle and UK industry finding alternative non-EU food and vehicle suppliers. If we do this then not only the UK but these important EU sectors will also be facing their own March 2019 cliff edge which will force governments to act and the EU do a deal with the UK. The reality is that the EU commissions exists first and foremost for the EU Commission and the core founding EEC/EU states. All other countries like the PIIGS can be thrown under a bus as and when required. Our always growing trade inbalance (in their favour) is deliberate where the UK has consistently been discriminated and voted against. This includes ever shrinking quotas for fish and agricultural products. >:( >:( >:( The sooner we are no longer the filling in this EU Commission sh*t sandwich the better. :y :y :y

I always knew this would end up as an EU and EU governments power struggle as the EU commission don't care how much it hits UK-EU trade as they don't face the ballot box and removal, but EU governments do and the result of this power struggle will decide a deal or no deal.

It shows again the dangers of powerful undemocratic institutions, that after much more damage (much has already been done with the PIIGS an example) before the EU finally collapses.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Rods2 on 04 September 2017, 14:25:53
Quite correct.

That will be the trick though , managing that through to its conclusion. I must admit I was surprised that May said she was staying on to fight another election. I expected her to be replaced in a (possibly this year) party conference leadership election with a softer candidate. Problem is, being blunt about it, there aren't any great politicians around nowadays and certainly not in the Tory party. Please don't say Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg.  ;D

I'm not as May has always struck me as an over promoted office junior with delusions of grandeur. :( :( :( She is a serial failure of a politician with virtually no leadership skills and the clarity and vision of stagnant muddy ditch water. :( :( :(
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 04 September 2017, 15:47:55



That will be the trick though , managing that through to its conclusion. I must admit I was surprised that May said she was staying on to fight another election. I expected her to be replaced in a (possibly this year) party conference leadership election with a softer candidate. Problem is, being blunt about it, there aren't any great politicians around nowadays and certainly not in the Tory party. Please don't say Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher Rees-Mogg.  ;D

I think it would be a colossal mistake if the Tories have a leadership contest and get rid of Mrs May in the autumn.  I feel that the Europhile faction of the Conservatives are sharpening their knives though, emboldened by the GE result which they mistakenly believe was a rejection of a clean break with the European Union.  ::)

A change of Tory party leader and PM might result in another GE, which would probably see Comrades Corbyn and McDonnell installed in Downing Street!  :(
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 04 September 2017, 16:30:10
Agreed. May (useless though she is) should stay where she is until Brexit is done & dusted.
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Rods2 on 05 September 2017, 01:05:26
Don't have a problem with May being the fall girl as it's not like she's not used to constant failure. :) :) :)
Title: Re: About this one hundred billion divorce bill?
Post by: Kevin Wood on 05 September 2017, 09:30:08
Don't have a problem with May being the fall girl as it's not like she's not used to constant failure. :) :) :)

.. and she's made a career of being completely out of her depth without knowing WTF is going on, too.