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[05omegav6]

Doesn't look good...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26492748

Apparently it crashed over Vietnam 

[zirk]

They still haven't found it yet, its gone missing for over 13 hours now. 

[zirk]

Still missing, but they have found a 20km Oil Slick in the sea.

Theres not that much oil in a Plane is there? 

[Gaffers]

Still missing, but they have found a 20km Oil Slick in the sea.

Theres not that much oil in a Plane is there? 

There was at least another 4 hours of fuel left in the tanks when it went missing.  Strong currents in that area too. 

Doesn't look good

[tunnie]

No Mayday call, 777 well proven aircraft too.   

[05omegav6]

Still missing, but they have found a 20km Oil Slick in the sea.

Theres not that much oil in a Plane is there? 

10 tonnes of kerosene goes a looong way

[zirk]

Still missing, but they have found a 20km Oil Slick in the sea.

Theres not that much oil in a Plane is there? 

10 tonnes of kerosene goes a looong way

Found 2 slicks now, rumours are it broke up or come down in bits 

[05omegav6]

Firstly my thoughts go out to those involved, not knowing is hellish, the sooner they find the aircraft the better.

Depending on the radar, if it broke up, ie simply fell apart then the radar image would show several returns which would be displayed for a while. It takes time to drop 35,000 feet, but does need a radar operator to see it at the time.

If it fell out of the sky, and broke up on the way down, then the first sign of a problem would be a sudden altitude change, followed by more returns as bits break off, again would need to be noticed by the radar operator.

The only way an commercial aircraft can disappear is if it vapourises or the transponder is turned off. Both would make it just stop showing on the radar screen, blink and miss it if you will...

The fact that no one noticed anything other than the radar signature vanishing is a worry. The discovery of one or more slicks suggest no fire, as kerosene is pretty volatile given the right conditions.

I suspect when the dust settles and the black boxes are recovered, they will show the transponder being turned off and the plane being put into a steep dive... 35,000 feet is plenty of time to issue a radio call if the flight deck choose to. It's interesting though that not one passenger was aware of an issue and rang or sent a text or something, although it was a night flight

The other alternative is that the flight crew switched the transponder off and flew to somewhere else,and that everyone is safe and well, albeit hostages. People are usually quite quick to announce such things though...

[Gaffers]

No Mayday call, 777 well proven aircraft too.   

True but is has had it's fair share of problems in the past.  Plus the engines are held on by 2 bolts each although everything points to a massive and rapid hull failure which means one of two things......

[Rods2]

Two people were travelling on stolen passports, which suggest it may have been a terrorist attack.

Explosion, rapid decompression and structural integrity failure along with catastrophic damage to the aircraft systems are a plausible explanation for why there was no mayday.

[Entwood]

Firstly my thoughts go out to those involved, not knowing is hellish, the sooner they find the aircraft the better.

Depending on the radar, if it broke up, ie simply fell apart then the radar image would show several returns which would be displayed for a while. It takes time to drop 35,000 feet, but does need a radar operator to see it at the time.

If it fell out of the sky, and broke up on the way down, then the first sign of a problem would be a sudden altitude change, followed by more returns as bits break off, again would need to be noticed by the radar operator.

The only way an commercial aircraft can disappear is if it vapourises or the transponder is turned off. Both would make it just stop showing on the radar screen, blink and miss it if you will...

The fact that no one noticed anything other than the radar signature vanishing is a worry. The discovery of one or more slicks suggest no fire, as kerosene is pretty volatile given the right conditions.

I suspect when the dust settles and the black boxes are recovered, they will show the transponder being turned off and the plane being put into a steep dive... 35,000 feet is plenty of time to issue a radio call if the flight deck choose to. It's interesting though that not one passenger was aware of an issue and rang or sent a text or something, although it was a night flight

The other alternative is that the flight crew switched the transponder off and flew to somewhere else,and that everyone is safe and well, albeit hostages. People are usually quite quick to announce such things though...

Good post Al .. if it was in Europe ... I'll bet that there is no Secondary Radar (IFF/SSR) in that part of the world, so transponder probably not in use, or squawking generic code  for Traffic Avoidance. The radar coverage would probably be an area (primary) radar (searchwater type) that relies on an operator to watch all the time. It has been proven, many times, that an operator will not notice a "missing" radar return for some while.. usually when for some reason they actually refers to it.. as they are trained to look for converging returns. There is also no height readout from primary radar, height clearances are all done proceduraly.

From another site ..

En-route radar generally extends about 200 miles from the base station. There are significant gaps in radar coverage in this region, especially over water far from land, although one FlyerTalker notes the area where the plane became unreachable appears to be within 200 miles of radar base station KBR; another reports there may not be an Area Control Center radar in that area. There is conflicting discussion in the thread about whether the aircraft was out of radar range. Some sources indicate it was, while others indicate it was in radar range and suddenly lost contact (disappeared from the radar). Some have questioned that if it disappeared from radar suddenly, why did it take so long to engage search and rescue operations?

The aircraft was equipped with ADS-B. FlightRadar24.com has ADS-B coverage in that region. Barring failure of the ADS-B transponder, the FlightRadar24.com track of the aircraft may be the most accurate track we have access to. Link to FlightRadar24's track. It has not been reported whether the Malaysian or Vietnamese ATC organizations have the capability to receive ADS-B broadcasts. There may be some discrepancies in the last reported positions of radar contact and the ADS-B flight track.

[05omegav6]

Reading that, if the ADS-B transponder was switched off then the aircraft could be anywhere within its fuel range as it might not have been within radar range to have been noticed

It would only have been reported missing after a predetermined time over the STA... this is to allow for external influences, although unusual for there to be no communication from the flight deck

[Lizzie_Zoom]

Strange that it is now believed the aircraft turned back on itself before disappearing from the radar screens............what is that all about, along with the a absence of any Mayday or other radio transmission.

With the two stolen passports, it is looking like one distinct possibility......terrorism of some type.

[Varche]

Quite worrying about the number of stolen passports that are used to board flights. Mrs V had hers stolen recently.

Also today they said that five people booked in but didn't turn up for the flight and so their luggage was offloaded!! Lucky escape? I really feel for the folks with friends/relatives on board.

I am surprised no one has come forward with conspiracy theories yet! Missing 60 hours with no trace,  I'll start them off.

1. Death vapourizing ray tested on live target.

2. Complex kidnap of the rich American business man on board.

3. Whole plane stolen by landing it secretly somewhere.

4. My favourite. Alien aduction.

[tunnie]

If it was terrorist related, I would have expected a video to be posted online by now. They would have arranged it to be done, soon after news broke.

Fact nothing has been said, for me, points to technical problems 

The stolen passports showed they intended to fly on to Europe afterwards, or maybe that was just to make it look more normal.