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Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Sir Tigger KC on 02 August 2019, 09:41:59

Title: By-Election
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 02 August 2019, 09:41:59
A win for the LibDems in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election last night which cuts Boris's majority to one!  ::)

The question for me though, is why on earth when the sitting Tory MP Chris Davies was effectively sacked for fiddling his expenses wasn't he de-selected and a new candidate put forward?  :-\

Or would that just be common sense?  ::)  ;D

Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: STEMO on 02 August 2019, 10:21:33
There's going to have to be a general election, surely?  :-\
And the reason for letting the conservative candidate stand again, some are saying, is because Boris wants an election.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 02 August 2019, 10:56:38
There's going to have to be a general election, surely?  :-\
And the reason for letting the conservative candidate stand again, some are saying, is because Boris wants an election.


General election?

This gives us a choice between dumb and dumber.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: STEMO on 02 August 2019, 11:23:37
There's going to have to be a general election, surely?  :-\
And the reason for letting the conservative candidate stand again, some are saying, is because Boris wants an election.


General election?

This gives us a choice between dumb and dumber.
Well........choose dumb then  ::)
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 02 August 2019, 12:32:28
There's going to have to be a general election, surely?  :-\
And the reason for letting the conservative candidate stand again, some are saying, is because Boris wants an election.


General election?

This gives us a choice between dumb and dumber.
Well........choose dumb then  ::)


Remind me.......which one is dumb and which one is dumber?

It seems there was no Boris bounce in Brecon. :)
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: redelitev6 on 02 August 2019, 12:34:47
An election ? the country is so divided I can't see any party getting a working majority , more chaos is guaranteed  :(
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: TheBoy on 02 August 2019, 17:37:08
An election ? the country is so divided I can't see any party getting a working majority , more chaos is guaranteed  :(
Yup. As it would be fought purely on Brexit.  And approx. half of the public are remainers, half leavers (actually, its believed there are far more remainers than leavers, but lets take the last outcome).

The Tories will lose votes to the Brexit Party

Labour will lose votes to the Libdems, Greens and local province parties


And the likely coalition would be with a party on both sides.


It'd be another fustercluck.


If Boris wants an election, its because he's scared of being written in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 02 August 2019, 17:57:51
With a majority of one, and a remainer Parliament, its hard to see how he can avoid an election. Unless he knows something the rest of us don't.  ???
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 02 August 2019, 19:17:36
I think he plans to run down the clock to 31st October and after that everything changes assuming we have left the EU with no overall withdrawal agreement.  :-\

He'll hope to manage the process well in the days/weeks/months after 1st November and if Joe Public see no major ill effects from our 'crashing out' without a deal he'll be a hero and will go to the country on the back of it.  :)

The Remain campaign will fizzle out as rejoining will be a very different prospect than revoking A50 and remaining, and I think only the fervent Europhiles will become Rejoiners.  ;) 

That's assuming that the sky dosn't fall in and the Four Horsemen with their apocalypse don't turn up on 1st November.  :)

That's also assuming he can survive an expected vote of no confidence......  ::)

Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 02 August 2019, 19:36:07
I think he plans to run down the clock to 31st October and after that everything changes assuming we have left the EU with no overall withdrawal agreement.  :-\

He'll hope to manage the process well in the days/weeks/months after 1st November and if Joe Public see no major ill effects from our 'crashing out' without a deal he'll be a hero and will go to the country on the back of it.  :)

The Remain campaign will fizzle out as rejoining will be a very different prospect than revoking A50 and remaining, and I think only the fervent Europhiles will become Rejoiners.  ;) 

That's assuming that the sky dosn't fall in and the Four Horsemen with their apocalypse don't turn up on 1st November.  :)

That's also assuming he can survive an expected vote of no confidence......  ::)

Doubtful that he can. Several Tories will vote with Labour, Libdems etc. so I don't see how he can win it, so an election seems inevitable.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 02 August 2019, 20:50:37
Quote
That's assuming that the sky dosn't fall in and the Four Horsemen with their apocalypse don't turn up on 1st November.  :)

Meanwhile, in other news, the US/Russia nuclear armss treaty has been disrupted so I wouldn't rule this out just yet :-\
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: STEMO on 02 August 2019, 20:53:19
Quote
That's assuming that the sky dosn't fall in and the Four Horsemen with their apocalypse don't turn up on 1st November.  :)

Meanwhile, in other news, the US/Russia nuclear armss treaty has been disrupted so I wouldn't rule this out just yet :-\
One of many depressing news items at the moment. I really try not to read every news item on the BBC app when I'm having my coffee in the morning, but I can't help myself. Not a good way to start the day.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Varche on 02 August 2019, 23:39:35
But.... is it not in both Russia and the USA to have a disruption to a nuclear pact.?

They both get to spend big and look good, Then they look even better when in a few months/ years get together and magically agree a new deal.

Where’s Rods2?
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: BazaJT on 03 August 2019, 19:11:59
It was either a totally stupid move virtually ensuring defeat and cutting the working majority to 1 or an uncannily shrewd[if highly risky]move.By fielding the candidate they did setting him up to be defeated they can now[as it turned out] point at labour and say we fielded a dodgy candidate and still beat your lot.Had they fielded a fresh candidate and still been beaten they'd have been open to all sorts of opposition[and from within the Tory party]attacks.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Rods2 on 05 August 2019, 21:44:21
Apparently Poison May made the decision for him to stand again to try & make Borises life as difficult as possible with one less MP. As long as Boris doesn't try to revive May's Dodo  treaty he should be okay with DUP support.

Dominic Cummings has pointed out that it is now too late for remain MPs to stop Brexit as by the time Parliament reconvenes after the summer holidays in September & call a vote of no confidence & it has been made & lost to stop Brexit or leaving on WTO terms, the General Election won't be until November when we have already left the EU. ;D May turning down Tusk's offer of a Canada++ deal would have been better solution but May's WA would have turned us into the EU's first colony & been a disaster for all of us as the EU stripped us of all of our wealth like imperial rulers always do, so WTO terms is now the best option & we do save £39bn for receiving nothing from the EU. I just hope we leave before Deutsche Bank goes bust having liabilities which are the equivalent of $7000 for every person on this planet & will make the PIIGS Euro storm look like a ripple on a pond in comparison & the UK still with considerable Euro bailout liabilities until 31/10.

7:55 the morning Dominic Cummings had a meeting with all department SpAds & laid down the law on no further Phillip Hammond & Chris Grey style obstruction of no deal government preparations & no further press leaks as that is now an instant sacking offence with no right of appeal & he will find out from the journalists who the leaker was as he always has even bigger stories to offer them. He is not known as Dominic 'Irascible' Cummings for nothing, particularly when it comes to civil servants. :o

Sorry remainers, but that battle is now lost. Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

It has also been reported today that FTA talks are now ongoing with USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand & others with many of them expected to be concluded before the end of the year. You now won't have to go to EU countries to get your growth hormone American Beef where the EU have agreed to increase their exports quotas & if you are worried about a chlorine deficiency, you can always buy a bag of prepared salad from your local supermarket as they are always chlorine washed as it makes them last longer.
Title: Re: By-Election
Post by: Rods2 on 05 August 2019, 23:02:29
But.... is it not in both Russia and the USA to have a disruption to a nuclear pact.?

They both get to spend big and look good, Then they look even better when in a few months/ years get together and magically agree a new deal.

Where’s Rods2?

INF treaty for a ban on short to medium range nukes was agreed & signed in 1987 to make Europe safer due to the short decision times from a launch to retaliation, so it makes it a more dangerous place in theory, but in reality it makes no difference where Putin's missiles have broken the treaty with their land based systems that cover all of Western Europe.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/ssc-8.htm (https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/ssc-8.htm)

IMO what is now of a much greater concern is where the EU duplicated & have probably fatally undermined NATO & IMO it makes more sense for a new Atlantic-Pacific pact between USA, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea & Taiwan where the two major threats to Western interests are now China & Russia. Germany has just refused to join the EU task force to protect commercial shipping in The Strait of Hormuz, the final PM May SNFU before she left office was turning down immediate USN help in favour of the non-existent/unreliable* EU one for protecting UK interests. *delete as appropriate.

We can then let the EU Army play at being chocolate soldiers & poke the Russian Bear with their EU Empire Eastern expansion as often as they feel they must. What can possibly go wrong as I'm sure the cheese eating surrender nation France as their only nuclear power would credibly threaten Moscow & be prepared to sacrifice Paris to save Berlin. :-X :-X :-X

I think the NATO countries that spend 2% or more of defence have had enough of the back sliding EU countries especially Germany who continue to cut their defence budget after promising to increase it where they want NATO Article 5 security on the cheap. Weak defences invite trouble & Putin has stated on several occasions, that countries that can't be bothered to defend themselves, shouldn't survive as countries. Germany relying on the Baltic-Polish-Ukrainian buffer to protect them on the cheap will probably not be enough when the two EU-Russian empires geopolitically collide. Personally I think the UK, our former Empire & the US made enough sacrifices in the 20th century sorting out Europe with no thanks whatsoever, so if they want to create more as One-Euro Plastic Napoleons in Berlin, Brussels & Paris then let them, while we sit it out.