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Author Topic: Government debt and interest rates  (Read 1156 times)

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pscocoa

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Government debt and interest rates
« on: 14 January 2015, 22:35:26 »

I received a letter today that Government is going to redeem the 1932 War Stock.

A bit of the end of an era as the holding has been passed on within family.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-to-repay-the-nations-first-world-war-debt

Interest rates make this attractive to the Government.
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Sir Tigger KC

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #1 on: 14 January 2015, 23:34:31 »

Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne said:

"This is a moment for Britain to be proud of. We can, at last, pay off the debts Britain incurred to fight the First World War."

Er no George you are re financing the debt not paying it off.  ::) 

However staggering it is that the Government has debts from hundreds of years ago that have never been paid off, it's comforting to know that at least this lot have the sense to refinance these ancient debts at lower rates.  :-\  I think....  ::)
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Rods2

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #2 on: 15 January 2015, 03:19:13 »

Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne said:

"This is a moment for Britain to be proud of. We can, at last, pay off the debts Britain incurred to fight the First World War."

Er no George you are re financing the debt not paying it off.  ::) 

However staggering it is that the Government has debts from hundreds of years ago that have never been paid off, it's comforting to know that at least this lot have the sense to refinance these ancient debts at lower rates.  :-\  I think....  ::)

Politicians never miss an opportunity to spin. Gilts are rising at the moment due to any port in a storm with what is happening in the world. Settling 3.5% for 1% or less is a sensible move. George Osborne has also been lucky, with his borrowing at very low rates from ever rising debts, from not meeting his deficit reduction targets, so money spent on interest will be lower than forecast £56bn against £64bn iirc. The Euro is weakening where the Advocate-general has just ruled that ECB QE is compatible with EU law with a few no-no's then expect this instant creation of money to be used to stave off deflation, due to weakening commodity prices and the ECB screwups over the last 3 years, like a German inspired interest rate rise in the middle of a depression in 2011! Germany might huff and puff a bit but Merkel has made a career of taking the path of least political resistance, so the ECB will get their way. I'm not a fan of QE, but short term, done sensibly, it is probably the right thing to help stop Eurozone stagnation and worse.

The USD will continue to rise on the back of lowering commodity prices that benefit consumer nations and the US robust economic growth as a result. The losers are "gas stations with a country bolted to them", especially developing nations that have had US QE loose money chasing the better returns in these countries. Fed tapering made life difficult for India, Indonesia and Brazil last year, expect much more pain in these developing and other countries, especially Russia and to a lessor extent Ukraine where they have major economic problems and especially in Russia industry have borrowed in USD as interest rates were much lower that their local currency and now they have got much higher amounts to pay back and to service the debts, due to depreciating local currencies. If the companies are trading in local currencies and paying debts in USD, ouch, this is going to hurt!

Onshoring of money back to the US in 2015, may well cause a global financial crisis this year.
« Last Edit: 15 January 2015, 03:22:40 by Rods2 »
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Varche

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #3 on: 15 January 2015, 10:09:33 »

Onshoring of money back to the US

What would a practical example of that look like please?
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pscocoa

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #4 on: 15 January 2015, 10:52:17 »

There was a thread running on here in September 2013 about gilts etc.

It was a "patient ride" that I took in investing in gilts and interest linked gilts but has proven to be right decision with returns between 8 per cent to 17 per cent in past year.

Issue now is where does this a) level off and b) what other long term opportunities to consider.

I probably need to go for ISAs!

Will wait until the election canpaign gets going though.

Oil price and uncertainty is fuelling need for safe home for funds.

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Varche

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #5 on: 15 January 2015, 11:01:42 »

Government Pensioner bonds? (not saying you are a pensioner of course)

Up to 4%
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pscocoa

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #6 on: 15 January 2015, 11:04:26 »

Not old enough but I think there is a tight limit on how much you can have in any case. Will read up - thanks
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Rods2

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Re: Government debt and interest rates
« Reply #7 on: 17 January 2015, 23:46:27 »

Onshoring of money back to the US

What would a practical example of that look like please?

Many investors have been chasing better returns than the US with their money in developing markets. If the investments are in the local currency there is now a real danger that any gains will be more than wiped out with the currency dropping against the dollar, so for safety they onshore the money and look for investment opportunities in the expanding US economy. Now QE has ended in the US, things like stock market booms and collectables might be coming to an end, so things start having real value again! It might take a market correction for that to happen, but it can't be ruled out in 2015.
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