Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Rods2 on 06 May 2020, 21:55:36
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Wildly wrong with his modelling of Avian Flu, Swine Flu, Foot & Mouth, BSE & Covid-19. His model went from predicting 500,000 UK Covid-19 deaths making the Government panic with the lockdown rather than healthy under 70's carrying on as normal & producing herd immunity & then modified his model with a lockdown & social distancing saying there would only be 20,000 deaths.
Pity he didn't stick to fu*king his mistress, instead of fu*king the UK & totally fu*king our economy with UK 6.3m furloughed plus the 1.25m unemployed, so currently 23% of the UK workforce aren't working, which doesn't include any of the 4m self-employed many of whom have no work. In 1933 unemployment peaked in the USA at 24% in their Great Depression.
This a a review of the Ferguson's code release where if you use the same random seed for a pseudo random number generator & the same assumptions you should get the same results. Even running it as a single core thread, you don't with one such test giving an 80,000 death discrepancy over an 80 day iteration. The confidence in being able to prove any scientific hypothesis is based on independent parties being able to repeat experiments and getting correlating results within the limits of quantifiable experimental errors. His model model results are junk science. >:(
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ (https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/)
Initial randomised Covid-19 antibody tests in the USA are finding between x50 and x85 times the number of people with them for every confirmed Covid-19 case which gives a mortality rate between 2 and 3 per 1000 infected people, so slightly more dangerous than a slightly worse than average Influenza at 1 death per 1000 infections. Antibody tests in Germany, Italy & The Netherlands are getting similar results. The UK has no antibody tests as they are not happy with the current test's sensitivity & are holding out for better tests which they hope will become available sometime in June, later or maybe never. Until the UK Government have some UK antibody test results they are give the UK's economy with a £150,000,000,000-£200,000,000,000 per month economic hit, while running the lockdown policy on blind infection & mortality rate assumptions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3_OseL0ArY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3_OseL0ArY)
I don't expect Governments to get everything right in a crisis with anything over 50% of correct decisions being a good result. Sadly, IMV this Government seems to be falling well short of this number.
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And you think labour or anyone else would have done better,dream on
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Are you one of the self employed who is making no money, Rods?
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BTW, there is no lockdown. I went to Asda late afternoon. People everywhere, tops off kids in tow enjoying the sunshine. Traffic was a bit lighter than before lockdown, but not much. Saw three cop cars on my travels, drivers looking bemused.
So people aren't locked down any more, just businesses.
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NO one knows enough about Covid 19 yet to know what will happen ::)
how much are 44,000 lives worth :-\ how much are 250,000 lives worth :-\
no one knows what the log term prognosis of covid 19 ,OR the treatments ,Vaccines etc etc
it's a learning curve of death :(
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Oh...and we queued, two metres apart, to get into Asda but, once in there, it was .......'normal'.
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NO one knows enough about Covid 19 yet to know what will happen ::)
how much are 44,000 lives worth :-\ how much are 250,000 lives worth :-\
no one knows what the log term prognosis of covid 19 ,OR the treatments ,Vaccines etc etc
it's a learning curve of death :(
And life.
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NO one knows enough about Covid 19 yet to know what will happen ::)
how much are 44,000 lives worth :-\ how much are 250,000 lives worth :-\
no one knows what the log term prognosis of covid 19 ,OR the treatments ,Vaccines etc etc
it's a learning curve of death :(
And life.
Not for the dead ones it's not ;D
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NO one knows enough about Covid 19 yet to know what will happen ::)
how much are 44,000 lives worth :-\ how much are 250,000 lives worth :-\
no one knows what the log term prognosis of covid 19 ,OR the treatments ,Vaccines etc etc
it's a learning curve of death :(
And life.
Not for the dead ones it's not ;D
Difficult to argue against, that ;D
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We haven't been anywhere near a supermarket since the middle of March everything is delivered to our door & it's great no idiots with shopping trolleys to contend with , wifey does a list each Monday and everything turns up on Wednesday to me 12 weeks isolation means exactly that. Personally I don't think it would make any difference who was in power it's a very complicated situation but I'm glad it's Boris, and indeed a learning curve for us all.
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Human nature dictates that people get pissed off very quickly, esp young people. It only takes a couple of folk to make a break for it and others follow very quickly.
The lockdown may prove to have been a massive lifesaver. Or the most expensive overreaction in history.
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Human nature dictates that people get pissed off very quickly, esp young people. It only takes a couple of folk to make a break for it and others follow very quickly.
The lockdown may prove to have been a massive lifesaver. Or the most expensive overreaction in history.
Tell that to the families of those who have died....... :(
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NO one knows enough about Covid 19 yet to know what will happen ::)
how much are 44,000 lives worth :-\ how much are 250,000 lives worth :-\
no one knows what the log term prognosis of covid 19 ,OR the treatments ,Vaccines etc etc
it's a learning curve of death :(
And life.
Not for the dead ones it's not ;D
Difficult to argue against, that ;D
Not sure that the dead would be too fussed one way or tother tbh...
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Human nature dictates that people get pissed off very quickly, esp young people. It only takes a couple of folk to make a break for it and others follow very quickly.
The lockdown may prove to have been a massive lifesaver. Or the most expensive overreaction in history.
Tell that to the families of those who have died....... :(
Whilst I understand the sentiment, especially the brutality of not being able to properly say goodbye; an inevitable consequence of life is, ultimately, death. Timely or otherwise.
The economy will recover in due course.
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Better to be safe than sorry or even dead
I've taken the financial hit and it's ongoing ,i'm fortunate to have a rainy day fund ,
not everyone is so lucky, and are struggling :(
some have lost family :'( all the money in the world won't cure that pain
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Being debt free has certainly helped with the stress levels.
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I see six weeks off hasn't helped Rods outlook any... :-X
Nice to see his wildly enthusiastic predictions of death and infection have yet to be met.
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I'm not pro Boris, in any shape or form, and I have concerns about the long term impact on various public services that another 8-12 years of conservative rule. BUT...
There is no easy metric to determine the efficacy of governmental strategies to battle covid. For example, on deaths per 1m population, we are 3x better than Sam Marino, but only half as good as the USA, neither of which I think is likely to be true.
For my overall take on the situation, I refer you to Theodore Roosevelt:
It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming;
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I've got some work but not a lot, but I will get something from the Government until July where I've taken a hit, so I'm hoping there will be some signs of normality by then where there is talk of some things opening in the next few weeks. Some further pending work on the horizon which will happen, but many people are currently furloughed, so no decisions are going to be made immediately. Watching the 2nd half 2019 slowdown & this has been a much longer economic cycle than the typical 41 months, I had fortunately been putting some money aside as a buffer where I thought there might be a mild recession in 2020. I'm better prepared than in 2008, so I'm hoping it's just going to be a large but short term hit to the economy with a reasonably fast recovery.
I would never expect Labour to do anything other than make a complete Horlicks & then use spin to cover their tracks, but that is irrelevant as it is not their innings. The party whose innings it is used to have a reputation for reasonable competitance & in one area they have done very, very well with the fast delivery of the Nightingale hospitals by preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best & thankfully they have been virtually unused. Army logistics at its finest in the planning, construction & fitting out in a very short period of time. :y No antibody testing means this is still an open feedback loop to calculate how many people have been infected in the UK & where we are at in terms of herd immunity. Italy have found antibody test infection rates of up to 38% and Germany & the Netherlands some hot spots are ~16% which is good for herd immunity & will make a 2nd peak less likely, I suspect New York is also well on the way to herd immunity. Covid-19 has been much more widespread than confirmed cases show with 50-80% of infections are asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms so they haven't been tested. If you don't know you've got it or think that you have a mild cold, why would you bother with a test?
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I'm not pro Boris, in any shape or form, and I have concerns about the long term impact on various public services that another 8-12 years of conservative rule. BUT...
There is no easy metric to determine the efficacy of governmental strategies to battle covid. For example, on deaths per 1m population, we are 3x better than Sam Marino, but only half as good as the USA, neither of which I think is likely to be true.
For my overall take on the situation, I refer you to Theodore Roosevelt:
It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming;
One of the best men to have ever held that Office.
And an oft overlooked point...
Success comes from the experience of failure.
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Human nature dictates that people get pissed off very quickly, esp young people. It only takes a couple of folk to make a break for it and others follow very quickly.
The lockdown may prove to have been a massive lifesaver. Or the most expensive overreaction in history.
Tell that to the families of those who have died....... :(
Indeed.
The things I've learnt.:
how dangerous seasonal.flu is. Never realised so many people die.
And that my Grandad, lost both parents to Spanish flu in 1918. Aged 8.
And that you can't take anything for granted.
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We haven't been anywhere near a supermarket since the middle of March everything is delivered to our door & it's great no idiots with shopping trolleys to contend with , wifey does a list each Monday and everything turns up on Wednesday to me 12 weeks isolation means exactly that. Personally I don't think it would make any difference who was in power it's a very complicated situation but I'm glad it's Boris, and indeed a learning curve for us all.
I have joined the 'elderly and vulnerable' queue outside Sainsbury's at about 0715 on Monday's and Wednesday's, with us being let in at 0800, after the NHS workers at 0730.
All very disciplined, as you would expect from our age group, and once inside shopping has been a dream. So much space around everyone, and if other customers or staff are there, we are all dancing around to ensure the 2 metre rule is practiced. It has been far easier that "normal" shopping, with no crowds to fight through. I have then always used the Smart Shop so at no stage do I encounter a member if staff with a transaction, as I just pay by card for my trollies worth that I have packed on my way round, and leave. Even a big shop that includes my daughters needs has been completed within 30 minutes.
I wish this part of social isolation could continue for ever! 8) 8) :y
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Human nature dictates that people get pissed off very quickly, esp young people. It only takes a couple of folk to make a break for it and others follow very quickly.
The lockdown may prove to have been a massive lifesaver. Or the most expensive overreaction in history.
This sounds like an episode of Colditz. ;D
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We haven't been anywhere near a supermarket since the middle of March everything is delivered to our door & it's great no idiots with shopping trolleys to contend with , wifey does a list each Monday and everything turns up on Wednesday to me 12 weeks isolation means exactly that. Personally I don't think it would make any difference who was in power it's a very complicated situation but I'm glad it's Boris, and indeed a learning curve for us all.
I have joined the 'elderly and vulnerable' queue outside Sainsbury's at about 0715 on Monday's and Wednesday's, with us being let in at 0800, after the NHS workers at 0730.
All very disciplined, as you would expect from our age group, and once inside shopping has been a dream. So much space around everyone, and if other customers or staff are there, we are all dancing around to ensure the 2 metre rule is practiced. It has been far easier that "normal" shopping, with no crowds to fight through. I have then always used the Smart Shop so at no stage do I encounter a member if staff with a transaction, as I just pay by card for my trollies worth that I have packed on my way round, and leave. Even a big shop that includes my daughters needs has been completed within 30 minutes.
I wish this part of social isolation could continue for ever! 8) 8) :y
Ahhhh.......you poor old thing, Lizzie. I suggest STMO does the same. :) :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* :-*
His lad will 'escape' and inseminate the local ladies before giving covid to his 'old fella'.......and that will be the end of STMO. ::)
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The quiet shops and roads have brought joy to all of us. If only we could turn back time to a point where the country wasn't hideously overcrowded !
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Hello Enoch... :D
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As for Prof. Ferguson. His model, which was used to convince the UK Govt. the lockdown was needed, was also used for Sweden. His prediction for Sweden was that if they didn't lockdown they would have 40,000 deaths by the beginning of May.
They decided not to lock down and their death toll yesterday was 2941.
Personally I suspect lockdown is right for the UK, or at least parts of it, due to being so overpopulated. If London and the south East had stayed open the death toll might have been catastrophic.
We will never know for sure though.
The general idea of slowing the spread to stop health services becoming overwhelmed seems a sensible one. The management of the detail has been pretty poor, although Im not so sure all the blame lies at the door of the Govt.
There must be people in the NHS, pen pushing, well paid management types, who are responsible for procurement. Govt. ministers jump in front of a camera to take credit because they think it will show them in a good light to the whole nation when they ar apparently, personally in charge of these things.
Then, when it goes tits up, it explodes in their faces.
I saw a bloke on the news the other day who CEO of NHS procurement, or some such fancy title, complaining about how the Govt. had handled the PPE crisis. His job title made me wonder, if it actually should be him taking the blame.
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Hello Enoch... :D
I would turn it back 20 years to just before Bliar opened the floodgates. That would do just fine for me.
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Hello Enoch... :D
I would turn it back 20 years to just before Bliar opened the floodgates. That would do just fine for me.
1960 for me, please.
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Hello Enoch... :D
I would turn it back 20 years to just before Bliar opened the floodgates. That would do just fine for me.
1960 for me, please.
Why?
In 1960 the north of England was grim. Colour (and the indoor crapper) hadn't been invented, and everything was in black and white. :)
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Hello Enoch... :D
I would turn it back 20 years to just before Bliar opened the floodgates. That would do just fine for me.
1960 for me, please.
Why?
In 1960 the north of England was grim. Colour (and the indoor crapper) hadn't been invented, and everything was in black and white. :)
Neither had AIDS yet to be invented so no-one bothered with 'Rubber Johnnies' and all the girls were on the newly invented pill so it was the era of free love and sex! :y
I'm sure Uncle STEMO had a fine old time in his Yoot, and can't say I blame him for wanting to turn the clock back. :) 8)