Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Sir Tigger KC]

Today the media have been presenting Labours wins in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by elections last night as stunning victories. 

Have a look at this though.

Kingswood 2019 - 16,492 votes for labour
Kingswood 2024 - 11,176 votes for labour

Wellingborough 2019 - 13,737 labour votes
Wellingborough 2024 - 13,844 labour votes

In Kingswood Labour got 5316 less votes than they did in 2019 and in Wellingborough they got just 107 more votes than they did in 2019.

Both by elections had low turnouts, but it hardly represents a massive swing to Labour in my view, but you can draw your own conclusions. 

[Sir Tigger KC]

Ooops wrong section!     

[Nick W]

Before you make any conclusions, you need to look at the rest of the results.


Sorry to be boring

[Sir Tigger KC]

You can be as boring as you like Nick, but my post was specifically about Labours vote tally. 

[Nick W]

You can be as boring as you like Nick, but my post was specifically about Labours vote tally. 

Once again, conclusions can only be drawn from the whole results, not just the winning number.


So Wellingborough:


Labour's share of the vote was 45%, an increase of 20% since 2019
Conservative shore the vote was 25%, a decrease of 38%


But look closer, as there's an 18% discrepancy:


Reform got 13% of that and the Independent candidate another 4%( figures rounded to whole numbers). These could only be increases as they weren't in the 2019 election.


Those are dramatic trends, but by elections should never be used to extrapolate general election results

[STEMO]

You can be as boring as you like Nick, but my post was specifically about Labours vote tally. 

Once again, conclusions can only be drawn from the whole results, not just the winning number.


So Wellingborough:


Labour's share of the vote was 45%, an increase of 20% since 2019
Conservative shore the vote was 25%, a decrease of 38%


But look closer, as there's an 18% discrepancy:


Reform got 13% of that and the Independent candidate another 4%( figures rounded to whole numbers). These could only be increases as they weren't in the 2019 election.


Those are dramatic trends, but by elections should never be used to extrapolate general election results

Following Tiggers post, I'd be interested in how many voted and how many stayed at home. I heard a lot more stayed at home than turned out, I wonder which way they'll go should they consider voting in the GE.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

You can be as boring as you like Nick, but my post was specifically about Labours vote tally. 

Once again, conclusions can only be drawn from the whole results, not just the winning number.


So Wellingborough:


Labour's share of the vote was 45%, an increase of 20% since 2019
Conservative shore the vote was 25%, a decrease of 38%


But look closer, as there's an 18% discrepancy:


Reform got 13% of that and the Independent candidate another 4%( figures rounded to whole numbers). These could only be increases as they weren't in the 2019 election.


Those are dramatic trends, but by elections should never be used to extrapolate general election results

Which shows promise.

Although most of the media showed the the 'big 3' as Labour, Tory, then Lib Dems....who were bombed into irrelevance.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

I won't vote for the Tory party.

The bulk of the party is made up of what is called 'one nation Tories' who are quite happy with unlimited immigration and over 100 genders.

Most could seamlessly slide  into the the group of woke misfits that Ed Davey is so proud of.

[Sir Tigger KC]

OK let's look at the Tory numbers for Nick's benefit and to answer Uncle STEMO's question. 

Kingswood 2019 - 27,712 votes for Conservatives
Kingswood 2024 - 8675 votes for Conservatives

Turnout 2019 - 49,314
Turnout 2024 - 24,905

The Tories got 19,037 less votes on Thursday than they did in 2019, but the turnout was 24,409 less on Thursday than it was in 2019. If just over 10% of the stay at homes had turned out and voted Conservative the Tories would have held the seat.

Wellingborough 2019 - 32,277 votes for Conservatives
Wellingborough 2024 - 7408 votes for Conservatives

Turnout 2019 - 51,193
Turnout 2024 - 30,145

The Tories got 24,869 less votes on Thursday than they did in 2019, but the turnout was 21,048 less on Thursday than it was in 2019. If just over 30% of the stay at homes had turned out and voted Conservative the Tories would have held the seat.

I'm not saying that it wasn't a bad night for the Tories, it was and deservedly so. Their voters mostly stayed at home and Reform nibbled away a chunk of those that did turnout. I wonder what on earth possessed Tory HQ to select Peter Bone's girlfriend as their candidate? 

It wasn't the famous victory for Labour that Britains corrupt biased media have been telling us it was either though, and I expect Labour strategists are wondering how they didn't improve their votes in Wellingborough and managed to lose 5000 odd votes in Kingswood. 

As for Sir Starmer going round claiming there was a massive swing to Labour on Thursday and the British people want a Labour Govt, that just utter bollix! 

[Raeturbo]

Thirteen percent is an excellent start for the reform party maybe now some more people will give them their vote rather than worrying it will interfere with the big three.

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Thirteen percent is an excellent start for the reform party maybe now some more people will give them their vote rather than worrying it will interfere with the big three.

Yep.

[Sir Tigger KC]

Went out for a pint with my Lefty mate tonight and he was crowing about the Byelections. 

Until I pointed out that as shite as the Tories are, Labour only just increased their vote in one election by 100 votes and actually lost 5000 votes in the other. He quietened down!   

Then he pointed out that "that far right lot took votes off the Tories as well!" 

Later the conversation turned to climate change and he thinks it's great that farmers are covering the countryside with solar panels... Dear god. 

[Field Marshal Dr. Opti]

Went out for a pint with my Lefty mate tonight and he was crowing about the Byelections. 

Until I pointed out that as shite as the Tories are, Labour only just increased their vote in one election by 100 votes and actually lost 5000 votes in the other. He quietened down!   

Then he pointed out that "that far right lot took votes off the Tories as well!" 

Later the conversation turned to climate change and he thinks it's great that farmers are covering the countryside with solar panels... Dear god. 

Just about everyone is 'far right' these days.

If you are concerned about immigration and believe there are just men and women then you are a 'far right' bigot.