The number of cases in China is doubling every 2 days to reach 8000 confirmed cases yesterday on average each infected person is infecting between 1.4 & 3.8 people with person-to-person infections. Unlike SARS which was only infectious after you became ill, this is like flu and you are infectious before you know you have even got it.
Assuming each person gives it to an average of 2.6 people, then
8000*2.6
14 2 day cycles ie in 28 days 5 billion of the population will have been infected.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51305526SARS killed 14-15% of those infected MERS kills 36% of ill people with 2019-nCoV currently killing 4-5% of those infected, so about 1 in 20 to 1 in 25 from primarily viral pneumonia with secondary bacterial pneumonia (like SARS) giving you double pneumonia. 1 in 20 to 1 in 25, meh I've got nothing to worry about!
It starts with an up to 10 day incubation period before you fall ill with normal flu like symptoms & a dry cough. In the second week it starts causing shortness of breath as pneumonia takes hold & can also damage your heart & kidneys making it more dangerous to those with problems with either. With SARS people that had secondary conditions like diabetes, Lupus, etc. had higher death rates.
Sorry, but you have got lots to worry about when it hits this country. More men than women died with SARS & they don't know why but they think where women have a rubella booster in their teens this may help & is being investigated. Less than 1% of children died, and death rates started climbing rapidly in over 45s with over 50% of over 65s dying as a result of the SARS infection. This new virus has much in common SARS although so far is is only about a 25-30% fatality rate compared to SARS but it is spreading much faster. When it hits the UK then the older UK population is going to be given a good cull. Spanish flu killed 50 million after WWI & I don't think it is unreasonable to think it is now too late to stop this becoming a global pandemic where far more die this time. For example, with the average age on here between 1 in 2 & 1 in 8 of us, dying as a result of a 2019-nCoV infection.
As per usual the UN's & WHO's wait & see attitude before taking action to stop its spread, it now looks like it is now too late for this!
All the usual precautions may help stop you getting it washing your hands after you have been in public places with hot soapy water & not touching your face or eyes will help.
There are currently no effective treatments with anti-viral drugs not working, so it is you & your immune system deciding which wins.
Quite a few bio labs & drug companies are working hard to try & find effective anti-viral drugs & create new vaccines, with several companies hoping to begin human trials of new vaccines during the summer & have the vaccine ready before next winter.
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Topic: This corona virus (Read 4224 times)