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Author Topic: Bat Flu forecasts  (Read 1197 times)

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Raeturbo

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #15 on: 10 February 2021, 14:05:19 »

I agree, itís not ever going to go away completely and weíre going to have to live with it and fight it best we can, but itís not the only thing killing people and we must not lose sight of that. No raising of restrictions until everyone has had the jab and very tight action on travel from overseas bearing in mind sometimes, to some travellers a big fine will not change their activities. Put all the things weíve learned,washing,distance, etc and then get on with It.
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dave the builder

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #16 on: 10 February 2021, 14:16:52 »

The first step in my opinion is for everyone including scientists, SAGE, governments, health services etc to accept that Covid is not going away and that we have to learn to live with it. 

I don't believe that we will ever achieve zero Covid and it will just become another illness that people get and some don't survive.  If the vaccines prevent transmission to an extent and boost peoples immune systems so that severe illness/death is less likely, meaning that health services are not overwhelmed, then they should drop the restrictions and let people get on with their lives as best we can.

God knows what the final excess death toll from untreated/late treated/undiagnosed cancers, or other illnesses like heart disease, strokes etc will be, but given the extremely loose definition of a Covid death, I bet it will be higher in the end.  :'(
I agree  :)

But we are not there yet ,we need to wait and hope the current vaccines ,restrictions etc cut the numbers right down to a manageable level before relaxing measures, opening pubs, holidays, etc
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #17 on: 10 February 2021, 14:29:22 »

Stopping the lockdowns would be a start.


Stopping the lockdowns and reopening everything,
Did you not notice the second and third wave of infection, death and overwhelmed NHS when lockdown measures where lifted each time   :-\
or do dead people not count if it's not you  ::)
That isn't quite what I said... On tother thread I pointed out that the lock downs in their current form clearly aren't working ::)

As for people dying, that's a fact of life. When it happens to me, then so be it.

616,000 people died in 2018. That's almost 2,000 a day. Up until November last year, 569,000 had died, again, almost 2,000 a day.

I don't seem to recall 2018 being spent shut indoors. :-X

Not disputing that there are more preferable ways to go, or that the NHS is so badly organised that it is annually overwhelmed by the seasonal flu, let alone a pandemic... But lockdown clearly doesn't work, so either seal EVERYONE indoors for a month or six and hope that Batflu magically dissappears...

Or let everything carry on as it was and learn to live with it in the same way as he have with everything else that comes along.
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Lizzie Zoom

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #18 on: 10 February 2021, 14:41:47 »

For centuries there have been plagues of one sort or another that have afflicted the human population and tried to wipe us out or at least reduce our numbers.

The viruses from the past are still with us and will never completely go away, just as scientists confirm that COVID 19 is now with us for ever.  All that can be done is to try and control these nasties by vaccination, like we do with flu every year for the elderly and vulnerable.

Human life will survive and go on until us ourselves destroy everything on Earth by way of a bomb or continuing to eradicate our environment. :(
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Varche

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #19 on: 10 February 2021, 15:27:08 »

Yes but that is passive response.

Smallpox and Rindpest were eradicated though probably exist in military lab stores.
 
Where do you see us 6 ,12 months time Lizzie? Restaurants open, flights back to normal ( there is certainly enough pent up demand) packed sports events ?  Or in and out of lockdowns?
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dave the builder

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #20 on: 10 February 2021, 15:41:07 »


616,000 people died in 2018. That's almost 2,000 a day. Up until November last year, 569,000 had died, again, almost 2,000 a day.

I don't seem to recall 2018 being spent shut indoors. :-X
697,000 deaths in 2020 ,last year ,when Covid started ,
nearly 100 thousand more than expected (even BBC said 85,000 ages ago) ,
ONS says excess deaths may be north of 125 thousand IIRC
current covid death average is 1000 a day ,




Not disputing that there are more preferable ways to go, or that the NHS is so badly organised that it is annually overwhelmed by the seasonal flu, let alone a pandemic... But lockdown clearly doesn't work, so either seal EVERYONE indoors for a month or six and hope that Batflu magically dissappears...

Or let everything carry on as it was and learn to live with it in the same way as he have with everything else that comes along.
OR....
hope that track and trace plus vaccine rollout and current restrictions see the numbers drop to a manageable level ,which it isn't right now.

and to say lockdowns don't work is twaddle, they do work ,as can be seen by the graphs etc , they are just not working as well as everyone would hope ,probably because half the country are running round demanding pubs, shops etc be opened asap, holidays ,etc etc rather than doing all they can to stop the spread.

when levels are manageable again , local lockdowns should return ,along with much stricter enforcement and  track and trace to keep it under control.

kept under control, Covid could be manageable , like flu 

it could be under control in the UK in 6 months if EVERYONE for with the program
it won't be though  :(
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STEMO

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #21 on: 10 February 2021, 16:06:44 »

Another 1000 deaths today. It's definitely going down, but not quickly enough.
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #22 on: 10 February 2021, 16:33:45 »

By that reckoning, that's only 12 more days... Then what? They raise the 'target' again?

You can fudge the numbers any which way, but the 113,000 is the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test, NOT actual Covid deaths.

Likewise the 1,000 a day.

Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.
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dave the builder

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #23 on: 10 February 2021, 17:04:09 »



Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.
have you missed the wave effect, shown in the graphs for deaths ?
or are you being "obtuse"  :P
deaths ramp up, then they lockdown, then deaths drop ,pretty simple

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #24 on: 10 February 2021, 17:16:58 »

If you compare places that have been locked down with those that have not locked down, the difference in deaths per million are negligible.

As an aside, of the people genuinely afraid of this, how many smoke?
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Sir Tigger QC

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #25 on: 10 February 2021, 17:21:19 »



Given that the mortality rates/total cases are still pretty consistent, regardless of lockdowns, there is a case to be made for getting on with life.
have you missed the wave effect, shown in the graphs for deaths ?
or are you being "obtuse"  :P
deaths ramp up, then they lockdown, then deaths drop ,pretty simple

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Lockdowns suppress the virus temporarily, but cannot be part of a permanent solution, and if the virus had originated in the US, UK, Australia or anywhere else in the democratic free world, I don't believe any government would have even considered shutting down their country to the same extent as they have.

I think with the new border controls, they are trying to make the UK into a 'bubble' like New Zealand or Australia.  I really can't see foreign travel getting back to normal any time soon, but I'm hopeful that domestically we can resume life almost as normal in the next couple of months as the vaccinations are rolled out.
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Doctor Gollum

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #26 on: 10 February 2021, 17:22:57 »

Unfortunately, what should happen and what will happen are mutually exclusive :-\
« Last Edit: 10 February 2021, 17:25:11 by Doctor Gollum »
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TheBoy

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #27 on: 10 February 2021, 17:34:55 »

As an aside, of the people genuinely afraid of this, how many smoke?
That comment surprises me, given you think the sniffle is a mere trifle of a problem.  Even in 2021 it has not been proven that smoking causes premature death.  And by god people have tried to.


Trouble with lockdowns is large sections of society suddenly believe rules dont apply to them, or its somehow against their rights.  Just travel into the inner suburbs on London, or Birmingham, or Manchester (and I'm sure loads more places I haven't witnessed), and you'll see there is no lockdown.
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Lizzie Zoom

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #28 on: 10 February 2021, 17:38:24 »

Yes but that is passive response.

Smallpox and Rindpest were eradicated though probably exist in military lab stores.
 
Where do you see us 6 ,12 months time Lizzie? Restaurants open, flights back to normal ( there is certainly enough pent up demand) packed sports events ?  Or in and out of lockdowns?

Without knowing what the scientist know it would be foolish and pointless to guess where we are all going to be.  Who knows what will happen next and unless someone can look into the future we just do not know ;)
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Rangie

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Re: Bat Flu forecasts
« Reply #29 on: 10 February 2021, 17:42:46 »

We are really lucky here when we go walking which is every day for between one or two hours at a time we never see a soul which is brilliant for us , on the odd occasion we may see another dog walker but distancing is always observed, would really hate to reside in a large town or city now.
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