Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: tunnie on 17 May 2012, 21:36:10
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On BBC 2 now, very interesting. Charting the history of the single currency.
Great points raised of how the debt climbed, fact as a single currency the borrowing rates became the same between countries.
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Was gonna watch it, but Peston is a first class, self centred, arrogant prat
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Still found it interesting, partially the bits of how it was formed & how certain restrictions were dropped in order to allow other states to join.
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Still found it interesting, partially the bits of how it was formed & how certain restrictions were dropped in order to allow other states to join.
Indeed, Europe (and UK) got carried away this millenium, and I think they thought recession could never happen, despite history proving it does every 10-15yrs. So when recession hit, it was hard.
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But I still couldn't have watched it with Peston doing it.
There was a report (based I suspect on rumour rather than confirmed fact) that Germany, before xmas, were printing Deutchemarks, clearly showing they think, if the report is correct, that Germany think the Euro will fail. That would break UK, at a time we are already breaked.
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Not sure I agree with that last ....
If, BIG If, the euro were to go completely and all the countries reverted to pre-euro currencies, the general consensus, in the tabloids, is that the Deutchmark would be exceedingly strong and cause major problems for other currencies.... doom , doom and more doom caused by the government.
Other than the fact that the UK government has no part in that scenario, which shows how wrong the tabloids are already, there is an opposing view that, due to the large amount of money the Germans have injected into supporting the weaker Euro currencies (money they will not get back), the Deutchmark may not be as strong as that.
A "slightly" strong DM would hit their exports and make their imports rise, thus giving other countries, including UK, the chance to export more.
The end of the Euro will cause problems for sure, but it would also present possibilities.
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Not sure I agree with that last ....
If, BIG If, the euro were to go completely and all the countries reverted to pre-euro currencies, the general consensus, in the tabloids, is that the Deutchmark would be exceedingly strong and cause major problems for other currencies.... doom , doom and more doom caused by the government.
Other than the fact that the UK government has no part in that scenario, which shows how wrong the tabloids are already, there is an opposing view that, due to the large amount of money the Germans have injected into supporting the weaker Euro currencies (money they will not get back), the Deutchmark may not be as strong as that.
A "slightly" strong DM would hit their exports and make their imports rise, thus giving other countries, including UK, the chance to export more.
The end of the Euro will cause problems for sure, but it would also present possibilities.
As a minimum, I reckon we'd have another banking crisis. With all that that brings.
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Single currency cant possibly work without political union. No-one outside of the political and chattering classes wants political union.They want it a lot less now than they ever did before.
It looks inevitable in many ways that Greece will leave the Eurozone,but dont underestimate the lengths the Germans will go to to try tokeep them in.Germanys worst nightmare is for Greece to leave and then start to recover relatively quickly (which is quite likely).Once that happens the dam will burst - Spain,Portugal,Ireland - end of Euro,soon followed by collapse of EU.
Big problems for all in the short to medium term (probably) but the best thing for all concerned in the long term.
And to think the reason given for the whole EU project was to stop Germany from ever becoming dominant in Europe again. That worked well didnt it ? ::)
Just had to turn over from Question Time (again) due to remedials & retards talking utter shite about how we need to spend our way out of trouble.They just wont get off that rather gravy train will they.
Fortunately I have discovered that Snatch is on Channel 5. :)
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Was gonna watch it, but Peston is a first class, self centred, arrogant prat
With TB all the way with this....
I don't know why but I cannot stand the bloke
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Single currency cant possibly work without political union. No-one outside of the political and chattering classes wants political union.They want it a lot less now than they ever did before.
It looks inevitable in many ways that Greece will leave the Eurozone,but dont underestimate the lengths the Germans will go to to try tokeep them in.Germanys worst nightmare is for Greece to leave and then start to recover relatively quickly (which is quite likely).Once that happens the dam will burst - Spain,Portugal,Ireland - end of Euro,soon followed by collapse of EU.
Big problems for all in the short to medium term (probably) but the best thing for all concerned in the long term.
And to think the reason given for the whole EU project was to stop Germany from ever becoming dominant in Europe again. That worked well didnt it ? ::)
Just had to turn over from Question Time (again) due to remedials & retards talking utter shite about how we need to spend our way out of trouble.They just wont get off that rather gravy train will they.
Fortunately I have discovered that Snatch is on Channel 5. :)
Not Jessie Wallace's again ::) ;D ;D
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Single currency cant possibly work without political union. No-one outside of the political and chattering classes wants political union.They want it a lot less now than they ever did before.
It looks inevitable in many ways that Greece will leave the Eurozone,but dont underestimate the lengths the Germans will go to to try tokeep them in.Germanys worst nightmare is for Greece to leave and then start to recover relatively quickly (which is quite likely).Once that happens the dam will burst - Spain,Portugal,Ireland - end of Euro,soon followed by collapse of EU.
Big problems for all in the short to medium term (probably) but the best thing for all concerned in the long term.
And to think the reason given for the whole EU project was to stop Germany from ever becoming dominant in Europe again. That worked well didnt it ? ::)
Just had to turn over from Question Time (again) due to remedials & retards talking utter shite about how we need to spend our way out of trouble.They just wont get off that rather gravy train will they.
Fortunately I have discovered that Snatch is on Channel 5. :)
Still plenty of pussy on Channel 5 then. :) ;)
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Single currency cant possibly work without political union. No-one outside of the political and chattering classes wants political union.They want it a lot less now than they ever did before.
It looks inevitable in many ways that Greece will leave the Eurozone,but dont underestimate the lengths the Germans will go to to try tokeep them in.Germanys worst nightmare is for Greece to leave and then start to recover relatively quickly (which is quite likely).Once that happens the dam will burst - Spain,Portugal,Ireland - end of Euro,soon followed by collapse of EU.
Big problems for all in the short to medium term (probably) but the best thing for all concerned in the long term.
And to think the reason given for the whole EU project was to stop Germany from ever becoming dominant in Europe again. That worked well didnt it ? ::)
Just had to turn over from Question Time (again) due to remedials & retards talking utter shite about how we need to spend our way out of trouble.They just wont get off that rather gravy train will they.
Fortunately I have discovered that Snatch is on Channel 5. :)
I believe it is inevitable if the Euro is to survive.......about which I have my doubts.
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We live in very dangerous times.
As someone living in a weak Euro country(Spain) I am only too aware of the dangers that there are. However it would be foolhardy to assume that the Uk is in a "strong" position. It isn't. If the euro unravels the banks (my favourites ;D ;D) would face Armageddon with their losses. British banks are up to their hilt in Euro debt so the Uk isn't immune.
Interestingly it was North European countries that first bust the debt rules. Spain only succumbed as late as 2009. What did for us here was the construction boom leaving the country with masses of empty property that someone has to pay for. There are plenty of people who have been made to pay for "off plan" that were never construicted and never will be!
Loads of Spanish banks (many downgraded last night) have toxic debts but and here is the kicker- they took out government debt too. Our PM here is desperately trying to fix it.
What is needed is yet more ECB cheap loans or some tool like EU debt bonds- out of thin air. That will kick the problem down the road a bit more and add to the burden on our children.
I fear for the Greeks. Most people, Greeks included haven't a clue about just how much debt their governments have racked up. When austerity actually kicks in (because mostly hardly anything has actually happened yet) then we will all start squeelling.
Me glass half empty ;D ;D
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Yeah, interesting mess as politicians scrabble for power. All about control.
Remember Germany was only too happy to lower those entry restrictions because it stopped Spain, Italy and Greece from devaluating their currency. Once out Greece etc will devalue like a shot and Germany will have no export market (too expensive) and all of a sudden these countries internal markets and exports will pick up. Germany won't want that in a hurry. Not when they are currently in control.
The british banks are full of toxic European debt - possibly only trumped by the french banks. Noticed how the government had another massive injection of quantitative easing after the last Eurocrisis in the winter? Ever see any of that filter down? I reckon that went straight into bank coffers to offset the fiddle they're doing trying to keep Europe afloat. We're too tied into Europe not to have to help pay them out. Camaron's lying when he says the British tax-payer won't pay. We already have and will continue to, through the IMF or the back door of the banks or whatever.
Bi question: is it worth it? How much money do you throw away before realising it is a bottomless pit? Has this brought to light the internal flaws in the system? Do you throw that system away or build a new one that works or go back to the way we were? All the politicians want is to hold onto power and control. What's best for the countries? Probably pull out and then rebuild some sort of alliance but based on policies that properly support each contries needs and protects their assets rather than supporting the german export market and internal inefficiencies in countries that were never financially viable.
I'd have let the banks go to the wall in the first place and stuff 'em. Even if I lost all my saving it wouldn't be the end of the world because I never had much. I'll earn it back - possibly by setting up a bank that works and doesn't rape the rest of the world in the process.
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Read a very interesting report regarding UK exports and how industry is focusing more attention outside the euro zone and less within due to the poor exchange rate with the Euro.
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Deep breath, and relax ...
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This country had the biggest empire ever known - all built on trade (and a few out of control power hungry maverics like Rhodes in Africa). We bought raw materials cheap and sold finished goods back to the world. The GDP of one county (Lancashire in the 1800s (I think)) was more than the rest of Europe put together.
The EU was setup because Stalin was banging on the wall down Germany's core and half of France was threatening to turn communist. That threat has gone but now it has become a power game for politicians to try and take on the United States.
I think more open policies with developing countries can only help them and ourselves in a more worldwide community if handled correctly.
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Read a very interesting report regarding UK exports and how indurty is focusing more attention outside the euro zone and less within due to the poor exchange rate with the Euro.
Lets hope its not too little too late. Should have been done a looooooooooong time ago. Having said that the "export to the EU" figures are fiddled anyway.Much of what the UK exports around the world goes via Rotterdam (for logistical reasons presumably),but what goes from here to Rotterdam on its way to somewhere in the big wide world is included in the figures of exports to the EU - which is rather ludicrous.
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Well I saw the owner of a SME on TV the other day. He makes mouldings for the railway industry. He said he would love to export to new markets like Brazil but hadn't a clue how to go about it.
No use asking William Hague, he just says work harder! I think that there is a golden opportunity for government to actually do something for SME's and export. They should grab it. Build trade links with Brazil and maybe even India if possible after all the snubs we have had.
Where are the visionaries and great leaders in this time of crisis?
Has Greece had a judge put in charge so that no one political party is accountable when the decision is made to leave the euro???
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Has this brought to light the internal flaws in the system?
;D ;D ;D The 64000 GR drachma question?
How 'they' ever thought that pulling together a disparate bunch of nations - each with their own history of conflict, of opinion about their own level of national importance, of how they, as a sovereign nation, intended to develop and prosper on the continental and world stage - would ever result in anything but chaos – without duplicity, double dealing and sheer manipulation - beats the shit out of me.
Suddenly, the British MSM (including such shining examples of the earnest sagacity we see in the likes of Peston) are beginning to realise that this whole crazy experiment of political expansion and empire building holds the possibility of going teats up without even closer union to form a centralised legislative government, banking system, legal framework, foreign and defence policy and so on and are beginning to question the sense and validity of this by adding to the wild speculation we are presently seeing on the possible outcome of what is a very fluid situation.
From what I see the opinion expressed by most any example of the MSM one cares to take notice of is about as much use as teats on as bull - given the woeful standard of reporting and investigation evidenced to date; then, matters they choose to examine (in the lust for ratings) have always embraced such important issues as long dead members of the Royal Household, so-called celebrities, footballers, the state of filth evident in some parts of our country in this, a Jubilee year, women exposing what can only be described as grossly distended teats and so on and exhaustingly on, rather than the practical investigative reporting needed to expose the true shambles this country now is as a result of weak government, untrammelled commercialism and a disconnect by many of its citizens from practical reality into a world of narcissistic materialism.
The MSM, their acolytes and self-important pundits, might as well have been pissing into the teeth of a gale for all the good their analysis of this debacle has been to those of us who are tying to get some independent, relevant and well researched information of just what is going on at the moment.
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Has this brought to light the internal flaws in the system?
;D ;D ;D The 64000 GR drachma question?
How 'they' ever thought that pulling together a disparate bunch of nations - each with their own history of conflict, of opinion about their own level of national importance, of how they, as a sovereign nation, intended to develop and prosper on the continental and world stage - would ever result in anything but chaos – without duplicity, double dealing and sheer manipulation - beats the shit out of me.
Suddenly, the British MSM (including such shining examples of the earnest sagacity we see in the likes of Peston) are beginning to realise that this whole crazy experiment of political expansion and empire building holds the possibility of going teats up without even closer union to form a centralised legislative government, banking system, legal framework, foreign and defence policy and so on and are beginning to question the sense and validity of this by adding to the wild speculation we are presently seeing on the possible outcome of what is a very fluid situation.
From what I see the opinion expressed by most any example of the MSM one cares to take notice of is about as much use as teats on as bull - given the woeful standard of reporting and investigation evidenced to date; then, matters they choose to examine (in the lust for ratings) have always embraced such important issues as long dead members of the Royal Household, so-called celebrities, footballers, the state of filth evident in some parts of our country in this, a Jubilee year, women exposing what can only be described as grossly distended teats and so on and exhaustingly on, rather than the practical investigative reporting needed to expose the true shambles this country now is as a result of weak government, untrammelled commercialism and a disconnect by many of its citizens from practical reality into a world of narcissistic materialism.
The MSM, their acolytes and self-important pundits, might as well have been pissing into the teeth of a gale for all the good their analysis of this debacle has been to those of us who are tying to get some independent, relevant and well researched information of just what is going on at the moment.
Having seen this coming a mile off (as my past posts may have indicated) and being in complete agreement with everything you write with regard to the MSM, I am unable to be surprised by any elements of your post, Den. Except, that is, for the bit about "women exposing what can only be described as grossly distended teats". I feel that a link to confirm this assertion is required. ;)
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Greece will leave the Euro-zone immently whilst they have an interim government. They will hold their elections in June once the initial panic has subsided and the political parties will be able campaign with policies designed to rebuild the country free of dicktats from the so called Troika.... ;)
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Greece will leave the Euro-zone immently whilst they have an interim government. They will hold their elections in June once the initial panic has subsided and the political parties will be able campaign with policies designed to rebuild the country free of dicktats from the so called Troika.... ;)
Think you may be right, Tigger.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/uk-delarue-greece-idUKBRE84H0DH20120518 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/uk-delarue-greece-idUKBRE84H0DH20120518) ;)
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Well I saw the owner of a SME on TV the other day. He makes mouldings for the railway industry. He said he would love to export to new markets like Brazil but hadn't a clue how to go about it.
No use asking William Hague, he just says work harder! I think that there is a golden opportunity for government to actually do something for SME's and export. They should grab it. Build trade links with Brazil and maybe even India if possible after all the snubs we have had.
Where are the visionaries and great leaders in this time of crisis?
Has Greece had a judge put in charge so that no one political party is accountable when the decision is made to leave the euro???
He might want to contact UKTI then and ask about Passport to Export. Its a Government service that has been running for years with the express aim of promoting export.
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I've been thinking about Greece this afternoon..... ::) and I've come up with a theory which might be a little 'out there'.... or maybe not! :-\
Apart from Greece there's been alot of talk about Spain running into trouble recently, having to recapitalise the banks, runs on Bankia, Bankia's shares bombing, 50% youth unemployment, economic recession etc etc I'm sure that 'The Troika' ie ECB, IMF and the EU Commission (Germany) are poised to bail out Spain should the need arise, but with stringent conditions as they did with Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The Spanish government will have observed the results of the Troika's austerity conditions in those countries especially Greece!!
They might not fancy that and might just think that being a bigger economy, they can weather the storms of exiting the Euro-zone and returning to the Peseta is a better long term strategy for Spain.... ???
So while we're all looking at Greece and talking about the 'Grexit', Spain might just steal a march and it'll be the 'Spexit' that will cause armageddon!!! ::) ::) ::)
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Not convinced Spain is in such dire straits. Varche is probably in a better place to comment. I think left alone without "investors" playing the market Spain could probably pull through. Also, Spain has done a lot to go with the Euro so I don't think they'll leave in a hurry. Spain is just a side show for hedge funds to make money on at the moment.
Think Italy is the pressure point. If you can stiff Italy then the french banks fail and France will have to disengage. At that stage it is all over bar the shouting.
Could be wrong!
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So the I-Texit or the Frexit might yet catch us all out?? ??? ;D
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Grrrrr - I hope you are right.
I really do not see what the answer is for Spain. They need to drop wages to maybe 305 of what they are now to regain competiveness against North Europe. Yet prices of food and utilities is now on a par with North Europe. Will they drop? Don't think so. The country has debt so needs austerity to get that down. That means reducing the government spend. The poroblem is here that the Conservative government only controls 17% of the budget ( defence and over seas stuff). All the big spend like Health is controlled by the Regions mostly Socialist. Will they toe the line and decimate the education and health spend? Not much desire there.
Spain is in dire straits but then Britain is too. Unemployment 24% and 50% youth unemployment. Huge national debt but not as big as Britains. The problem here is the bloody banks(my favourite) lent indiscriminately to anyone building or buying homes. Now there is a huge amount of empty housing that will take forever to sell. ( I think Peston said more empty houses here than in the USA). The banks have toxic debt of staggering levels AND took out government loans (invested in Spains debt like fools). Next week two auditor firms are looking at all these toxic debts to ring fence them to new ly created property companies so the banks need less capital to refinance themselves to the new EU rules. Will it work? Can they do it in time before the market kills them? Who knows.
I'll offer 1:2 odds on Greece leaving the euro before end of 2012.
I'll offer 5;1 on Spain leaving the euro before end of 2012 (can't accept bets over 5 euros though)
I'll offer 10:1 on Germany leaving the euro before end of 2013. (again no bets over 5 euros- sorry there is a crisis)
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I fear for the Greeks. Most people, Greeks included haven't a clue about just how much debt their governments have racked up. When austerity actually kicks in (because mostly hardly anything has actually happened yet) then we will all start squeelling.
I think many UK residents also have no idea - look at the trouble the public sector employees are kicking up...
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If you look at the history of defaulting then, economies start to recover almost immediately, which you can see in several research papers available on the Internet. If anybody is interested I will post the links.
So, to me the most likely scenario is that once Greece goes belly up (and it will be soon) and leaves the Euro there will probably be two to four weeks of turmoil and then they will start to grow where the banks and the economy is flooded by the Greek Central Bank with New Drachmas. They will reduce their interest charges by defaulting massively on all current debt by 75-100% (This will make the last default a few weeks ago look like a kiddies tea party).
Their central bank will provide liquidity that is currently absent to get their wheels of industry turning again, the currency will devalue against the Euro between 40 and 80%, which will make their exports much more competitive and holidays their cheap again (Tourism is 15% of GDP). Yes, there will be an inflation blip from increased import costs and also due to the central bank liquidity of flooding the country with New Drachmas. This is not dissimilar to when we left the ERM on black wednesday.
The end result will be a growing economy and falling unemployment from months 2 or 3 onwards.
This is when the Trokia start bricking it. As the populations of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland say at the polls or in the streets, we want some of that and the Euro countries start to drop like flies, taking France and Belgium with them. The Euro will then consist of a few minor economies and (Latvia, Estonia etc and Germany, the Netherlands and possible Austra.
If I was a EU / Eurozone politician right now, I would be watching the sales of rope and baling wire very closely and getting very nervous every time I walked past a lamp post. ::) ::) ::)
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If you look at the history of defaulting then, economies start to recover almost immediately, which you can see in several research papers available on the Internet. If anybody is interested I will post the links.
So, to me the most likely scenario is that once Greece goes belly up (and it will be soon) and leaves the Euro there will probably be two to four weeks of turmoil and then they will start to grow where the banks and the economy is flooded by the Greek Central Bank with New Drachmas. They will reduce their interest charges by defaulting massively on all current debt by 75-100% (This will make the last default a few weeks ago look like a kiddies tea party).
Their central bank will provide liquidity that is currently absent to get their wheels of industry turning again, the currency will devalue against the Euro between 40 and 80%, which will make their exports much more competitive and holidays their cheap again (Tourism is 15% of GDP). Yes, there will be an inflation blip from increased import costs and also due to the central bank liquidity of flooding the country with New Drachmas. This is not dissimilar to when we left the ERM on black wednesday.
The end result will be a growing economy and falling unemployment from months 2 or 3 onwards.
This is when the Trokia start bricking it. As the populations of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland say at the polls or in the streets, we want some of that and the Euro countries start to drop like flies, taking France and Belgium with them. The Euro will then consist of a few minor economies and (Latvia, Estonia etc and Germany, the Netherlands and possible Austra.
If I was a EU / Eurozone politician right now, I would be watching the sales of rope and baling wire very closely and getting very nervous every time I walked past a lamp post. ::) ::) ::)
the Netherlands will want out too. They aren't a happy bunch either. The only thing I can't see with your scenario is the banks. They won't be happy at taking massive hits. They aren't casinos you know. Wait a minute they are ;D ;D, as you were.
I would just like to report that my fledgling business is doing great. I am selling mattresses. Had loads of enquiries from Greece, Italy and here at home they are selling like hot cakes. :y.
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If you look at the history of defaulting then, economies start to recover almost immediately, which you can see in several research papers available on the Internet. If anybody is interested I will post the links.
So, to me the most likely scenario is that once Greece goes belly up (and it will be soon) and leaves the Euro there will probably be two to four weeks of turmoil and then they will start to grow where the banks and the economy is flooded by the Greek Central Bank with New Drachmas. They will reduce their interest charges by defaulting massively on all current debt by 75-100% (This will make the last default a few weeks ago look like a kiddies tea party).
Their central bank will provide liquidity that is currently absent to get their wheels of industry turning again, the currency will devalue against the Euro between 40 and 80%, which will make their exports much more competitive and holidays their cheap again (Tourism is 15% of GDP). Yes, there will be an inflation blip from increased import costs and also due to the central bank liquidity of flooding the country with New Drachmas. This is not dissimilar to when we left the ERM on black wednesday.
The end result will be a growing economy and falling unemployment from months 2 or 3 onwards.
This is when the Trokia start bricking it. As the populations of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland say at the polls or in the streets, we want some of that and the Euro countries start to drop like flies, taking France and Belgium with them. The Euro will then consist of a few minor economies and (Latvia, Estonia etc and Germany, the Netherlands and possible Austra.
If I was a EU / Eurozone politician right now, I would be watching the sales of rope and baling wire very closely and getting very nervous every time I walked past a lamp post. ::) ::) ::)
Exactly, Rods. I have read that people are not that keen on booking a holiday to Greece at the moment and have been whingeing about the prices in Greece over the last few years. Tourism is a major earner fro Greece. Those same people have been saying that, if they drop the euro, they'll be out there like a shot - enjoying cheaper holidays. Of course, they will be spending the same amount of money, but will get more for it, and Greece will prosper again...in a short space of time, IMHO. :y
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Greek problem is solved!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=9276014&cc=9237222 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=9276014&cc=9237222)
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If you look at the history of defaulting then, economies start to recover almost immediately, which you can see in several research papers available on the Internet. If anybody is interested I will post the links.
So, to me the most likely scenario is that once Greece goes belly up (and it will be soon) and leaves the Euro there will probably be two to four weeks of turmoil and then they will start to grow where the banks and the economy is flooded by the Greek Central Bank with New Drachmas. They will reduce their interest charges by defaulting massively on all current debt by 75-100% (This will make the last default a few weeks ago look like a kiddies tea party).
Their central bank will provide liquidity that is currently absent to get their wheels of industry turning again, the currency will devalue against the Euro between 40 and 80%, which will make their exports much more competitive and holidays their cheap again (Tourism is 15% of GDP). Yes, there will be an inflation blip from increased import costs and also due to the central bank liquidity of flooding the country with New Drachmas. This is not dissimilar to when we left the ERM on black wednesday.
The end result will be a growing economy and falling unemployment from months 2 or 3 onwards.
This is when the Trokia start bricking it. As the populations of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland say at the polls or in the streets, we want some of that and the Euro countries start to drop like flies, taking France and Belgium with them. The Euro will then consist of a few minor economies and (Latvia, Estonia etc and Germany, the Netherlands and possible Austra.
If I was a EU / Eurozone politician right now, I would be watching the sales of rope and baling wire very closely and getting very nervous every time I walked past a lamp post. ::) ::) ::)
I broadly agree with you Rod, but I think the time frames will be months and years, rather than weeks and months... :-\
Also we shouldn't underestimate the dangers of inflation or more probably hyper-inflation. The Drachma as soon as it is re-introduced will plummet in value against all the major currencies. This will be fanatastic for the Greek tourism industry, olive oil, retsina, greek yogurt and feta cheese producers! ;) I'm not sure what else Greece produces and exports?? :-\
However, anything imported like consumer goods, vehicles and most importantly fuel will become extremely expensive!! :o The main danger is that the international money markets won't deal with the Drachma (Possibly politically motivated!) and so Greece will find it hard to obtain hard currency to buy oil and gas, resulting in fuel shortages and possibly huge social unrest..... ::) Thus hitting their tourism industry and major hard currency earner! ???
I think there is a real danger that Greece could become a European Zimbabwe. They will suffer the ire of the EU for daring to defy them and it may be that the only country that will accept Drachmas for oil is Iran, which will attract the ire of the US... ::)
It's all theoretical and abit of a doomsday scenario, but default and the 'Grexit' isn't necessarily the easy option!! ::) It may yet come to pass that it's their only option.... :-\
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Could go down the route of a PIIGS Euro and a northern Euro yet! That might save a lot of issues, including skint countries finding the cash to switch their infrastructure back to their old currencies!