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Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: biggriffin on 01 November 2015, 10:03:47

Title: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: biggriffin on 01 November 2015, 10:03:47
Conspiracy theories welcome from rods, and other findings welcome on the Russian plane.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 10:39:01
Ok... In no particular order :

Putin has fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea... Some over shot and landed in Northern Iraq.

Incidentally Israel isn't much further along that trajectory...

Someone in Northern Sinai, let's say Soviet funded/supplied Islamic fundamentalistic halfwit gets their hands on summat capable of dropping airliners. Let's say said halfwits are given the squark details of a Russian holiday jet.

Putin then says to Egypt...  Let me give you a hand with those ISIS types...

He sends a handful more cruise missiles over from the Caspian Sea.

You might have noticed that their trajectory would be a continuation of the course used to miss Syria. You might also notice that if any missiles fell short, that they would land on Tel Aviv.

If you wanted to completely upset the Middle East, sacrificing 217 of your citizens would be considered a worthwhile expense...

Hypothetically speaking, of course ::)
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: STEMO on 01 November 2015, 10:40:52
Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun.  ::)
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Broomies Mate on 01 November 2015, 10:51:59
Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun.  ::)

But why though?  Needed a piss perhaps?
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 10:56:05
Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport due to technical issues. Namely people technically shooting at the aircraft. Technically......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun.  ::)
Ooh you cynic :P
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 01 November 2015, 11:17:13
Here's the Daily Mail's take.  ::)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3297871/Russian-passenger-plane-220-tourists-board-missing-Egypt-Fears-aircraft-crashed-Sinai-desert.html
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: STEMO on 01 November 2015, 11:37:17
Here's the Daily Mail's take.  ::)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3297871/Russian-passenger-plane-220-tourists-board-missing-Egypt-Fears-aircraft-crashed-Sinai-desert.html
That looks more like a fighter than a passenger plane.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Rods2 on 01 November 2015, 12:32:45
1. Putin FP tactics after all he did get FSB (KGB) to bomb a number of Moscow apartment blocks that killed over 300 people as the pre-text for the 2nd Chechen war where he killed around 250,000 Chechens, including destroying virtually all of their capital Grozny. This comes straight from Hitler's "Consolidate your dictatorship manual" on page 1 of the chapter "night of the long knives!" Putin value of any person's life apart from his is anywhere between nothing and zero.

2. Catastrophic technical failure, where Russia has one of the worst airline safety records in the world.

3. Onboard bomb.

4. AAM or SAM, but at that altitude it would have to be a large one like a BUK.

5. Playing his MH17 get out of jail free card!

Both black boxes have been recovered, so lets wait for the International experts (not the politicised Russian ones) on what probably happened.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 12:40:04
First proper pic of the wreckage in that sequence is/was the flight deck :o

No way that was intact when it 'landed'... Also some interesting reference marks on that wing tip too...
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: tigers_gonads on 01 November 2015, 12:42:45
Ok... In no particular order :

Putin has fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea... Some over shot and landed in Northern Iraq.

Incidentally Israel isn't much further along that trajectory...

Someone in Northern Sinai, let's say Soviet funded/supplied Islamic fundamentalistic halfwit gets their hands on summat capable of dropping airliners. Let's say said halfwits are given the squark details of a Russian holiday jet.

Putin then says to Egypt...  Let me give you a hand with those ISIS types...

He sends a handful more cruise missiles over from the Caspian Sea.

You might have noticed that their trajectory would be a continuation of the course used to miss Syria. You might also notice that if any missiles fell short, that they would land on Tel Aviv.

If you wanted to completely upset the Middle East, sacrificing 217 of your citizens would be considered a worthwhile expense...

Hypothetically speaking, of course ::)




The cruise missiles launched by Putin doesn't fly at anything like a altitude off 31,000 feet so that's a non starter.

A standard manpad system has a absolute range of about 6 miles but it would be impossible to use against a target above 10,000 feet due to the seeker head not being able to lock on at that range and the corresponding angles / timing required to get close to something at that altitude.


As for conspiracy theories about the Russians and the big picture, go out and buy Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising  :y :y
I read the full 900 od pages in less then 24 hours during a exercise while I was out in sausage land during the late 80's.
Incredibly too close to comfort is one way of putting it.
Iirc when it was published, Clancy got a tap on the shoulder but certain law enforcement agencies in the states and was politely asked about some of the facts and data in the story line. Apparently, he took then down the library and showed then some text books  ::)
To say that they was red faces in department of defence if a understatement  ;) 

Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 12:43:28
Rods, re point 2... Aircraft was Irish registered and would have been maintained accordingly :y
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 12:46:30
TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Rods2 on 01 November 2015, 12:54:06
TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...

They won't do that as Russia and Israel get on very closely, partly due to large contingent of Russian Jews that have emigrated to Israel.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: tigers_gonads on 01 November 2015, 12:54:59
TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...


I know  ;D
Just pishing on the manpad theory that ISIS and other factions use  ;)

As for our red sea pedestrian friends, Putin is not stupid and would never drag them into any conflict.

 
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 12:56:42
TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...


I know  ;D
Just pishing on the manpad theory that ISIS and other factions use  ;)

As for our red sea pedestrian friends, Putin is not stupid and would never drag them into any conflict.
That's open for debate...

That's to say that, whilst there's a technical difference between stupidity and insanity, the net result is broadly similar...
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: tigers_gonads on 01 November 2015, 13:08:26
TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...


I know  ;D
Just pishing on the manpad theory that ISIS and other factions use  ;)

As for our red sea pedestrian friends, Putin is not stupid and would never drag them into any conflict.
That's open for debate...


Action - Reaction

He does something
The west reacts

Putin has the pacifist west by the balls and will manipulate the western politicians in whatever way he wishes.
He answers to nobody because anybody who gets in his way ends up in the gulag on a tax evasion charge.
Western politicians are voted in every 5 years or so.
To keep themselves in power, they have to appease the public or they are off the gravy train and another lot jump on  >:(
The general population of the western world are now soft pacifists who just haven't got the balls to fight anymore.

Love or hate Putin, you have to admire him  :) 
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Migalot on 01 November 2015, 17:07:50
Probably rear bulkhead failure, IMO.

The aircraft had suffered a previous hard tailstrike in October 2002 when owned by MEA (Middle East Airlines). This caused serious damage, so the repair must have been major. 
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Kevin Wood on 01 November 2015, 17:14:53
Pilot radioed shortly after takeoff and asked for permission to land at Cairo airport......apparently. Sorry to spoil the fun.  ::)

But why though?  Needed a piss perhaps?

Yep, and didn't trust his ex-Lufthansa co-pilot.  :-X
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 17:40:38
Probably rear bulkhead failure, IMO.

The aircraft had suffered a previous hard tailstrike in October 2002 when owned by MEA (Middle East Airlines). This caused serious damage, so the repair must have been major.
Any such repairs and monitoring thereof would feature in the annual checks... Especially since that JAL 747 crash thirty odd years ago :y
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Migalot on 01 November 2015, 18:17:40
Probably rear bulkhead failure, IMO.

The aircraft had suffered a previous hard tailstrike in October 2002 when owned by MEA (Middle East Airlines). This caused serious damage, so the repair must have been major.
Any such repairs and monitoring thereof would feature in the annual checks... Especially since that JAL 747 crash thirty odd years ago :y

Hmm. Not so sure they would necessarily feature. Metal fatigue is not always so easy to spot and, in 2002, a China Airlines 747 suffered a bulkhead failure due to a botched repair of an earlier tailstrike.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611)
 
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 01 November 2015, 18:47:21
Was thinking of this one...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Sir Tigger KC on 02 November 2015, 10:56:45
The airline is now saying that it was "external activity" that downed the plane.  :-\

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34697416
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: henryd on 02 November 2015, 11:56:56
Probably rear bulkhead failure, IMO.

The aircraft had suffered a previous hard tailstrike in October 2002 when owned by MEA (Middle East Airlines). This caused serious damage, so the repair must have been major.

Yep,saw that and it took 3 months to repair damage caused so quite extensive ???
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 04 November 2015, 22:31:00
Well, that's the Egyptian resorts closed again...
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Varche on 04 November 2015, 22:44:18
Won't be long before people are frit to holiday in a Muslim country or perhaps even one with a Muslim minority. I might revert to driving between Spain and the UK.

Also how long before planes are security checked by agencies I.e. not there own staff? That will add to delays.

Magnetic bomb attached externally in perhaps an inspection hatch?

Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 04 November 2015, 22:52:33
Won't be long before people are frit to holiday in a Muslim country or perhaps even one with a Muslim minority. I might revert to driving between Spain and the UK.

Also how long before planes are security checked by agencies I.e. not there own staff? That will add to delays.

Magnetic bomb attached externally in perhaps an inspection hatch?
That would work well on aluminium composite ::)
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 04 November 2015, 23:02:29
Probably nothing more complicated than a phone slipped into a checked bag with a detonator wired to the vibrate motor... certainly nothing bigger than a laptop bag...

Crew are ultimately responsible for searching the cabin, regardless of third party contractors. We used to secure clean Continental and El Al. Afterwards ICTS* would then re search the aircraft before the crew did the same. Ok in the case of El Al the security contractor was Mossad, but you get the gist...

Luggage is screened between check in and loading. Basically, it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility for extra 'luggage' to have been loaded
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Broomies Mate on 04 November 2015, 23:08:40
Won't be long before people are frit to holiday in a Muslim country or perhaps even one with a Muslim minority. I might revert to driving between Spain and the UK.

Also how long before planes are security checked by agencies I.e. not there own staff? That will add to delays.

Magnetic bomb attached externally in perhaps an inspection hatch?
That would work well on aluminium composite ::)

 ;D That made me chuckle.  My Missus just looked at your reply and said "Why is Aluminium Composite funny".  Silly cow.

Anyway, [pedant] Varch did say 'inside' the inspection hatch.  Plenty of steel hinge points and latching mechanisms to attach it to. [/pedant]  :-*
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 04 November 2015, 23:31:08
Won't be long before people are frit to holiday in a Muslim country or perhaps even one with a Muslim minority. I might revert to driving between Spain and the UK.

Also how long before planes are security checked by agencies I.e. not there own staff? That will add to delays.

Magnetic bomb attached externally in perhaps an inspection hatch?
That would work well on aluminium composite ::)

 ;D That made me chuckle.  My Missus just looked at your reply and said "Why is Aluminium Composite funny".  Silly cow.

Anyway, [pedant] Varch did say 'inside' the inspection hatch.  Plenty of steel hinge points and latching mechanisms to attach it to. [/pedant]  :-*
Doubt it... anyways, on an aicraft that size you don't need to be particularly fussy where you place summat as the bags are almost certainly loose loaded.

All assuming it wasn't shot down ;)
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Rods2 on 05 November 2015, 00:38:22
They are also suggesting that it might have been an uncontained engine failure. There are crew moans that Metrojet had not paid their wages for a couple of month (nothing unusual about this in Russia or Ukraine!) and aircraft servicing was behind schedule.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: omega2018 on 05 November 2015, 00:53:08
seems to be a bomb smuggled on board, possibly by (and with) the bomber.  not a small bomb either. 

good move to ban flights while they check egyptian security - i remember we accidentally smuggled a 1 litre bottle of water past sharm security in hand luggage, inbound to UK ::).  that was 2008, after the 2006 liquids ban.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Rods2 on 05 November 2015, 00:58:30
TG, I wasn't suggesting that the Russians actually shot the plane down... Merely that the aftermath would be a convenient excuse to inadvertently drop a cruise missile on the Israelis...


I know  ;D
Just pishing on the manpad theory that ISIS and other factions use  ;)

As for our red sea pedestrian friends, Putin is not stupid and would never drag them into any conflict.
That's open for debate...


Action - Reaction

He does something
The west reacts

Putin has the pacifist west by the balls and will manipulate the western politicians in whatever way he wishes.
He answers to nobody because anybody who gets in his way ends up in the gulag on a tax evasion charge.
Western politicians are voted in every 5 years or so.
To keep themselves in power, they have to appease the public or they are off the gravy train and another lot jump on  >:(
The general population of the western world are now soft pacifists who just haven't got the balls to fight anymore.

Love or hate Putin, you have to admire him  :)

Lucky them as they will have had a big enough public profile to get such light treatment, unknowns just disappear, never to be seen again!

I guess if you are an admirer of those other European mass murders Hitler and Stalin then you probably admire Putin as well. On the murder stakes he is quite a light weight compared with the other two with only the blood of between 0.5m and 1m people on his hands so far. If Russia was not a nuclear armed state and by using threats to use them most Western politicians are sh!t scared of him, otherwise he would have been in the Hague on Genocide charges by now.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Broomies Mate on 05 November 2015, 01:03:51
seems to be a bomb smuggled on board, possibly by (and with) the bomber.  not a small bomb either. 

good move to ban flights while they check egyptian security - i remember we accidentally smuggled a 1 litre bottle of water past sharm security in hand luggage, inbound to UK ::).  that was 2008, after the 2006 liquids ban.

Similarly, in 2012 I flew from LHR to CDG.  I always carry a very small Swiss Army style (cheap copy) knife on my keys (great for cleaning under your nails, comes in handy a lot).  It wasn't until I attempted to pass through security in Paris (the return journey) that it was confiscated.

I'm guessing these folks working at Security are so busy checking for a million and one things........ there is only so much a human can do.  :-\
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: tigers_gonads on 05 November 2015, 11:14:50
Rod2 says .................


I guess if you are an admirer of those other European mass murders Hitler and Stalin then you probably admire Putin as well. On the murder stakes he is quite a light weight compared with the other two with only the blood of between 0.5m and 1m people on his hands so far. If Russia was not a nuclear armed state and by using threats to use them most Western politicians are shit scared of him, otherwise he would have been in the Hague on Genocide charges by now


In a way, I admire Putin because he does what's best for HIS COUNTRY and HIS PEOPLE instead of worrying what the bleeding heart, pacifist, career gravy train self-abusers than infest most governments of the west do. 
Whether I agree with what he does or not is irrelevant.
As for Hitler and Stalin, your oppsing out of line there  >:( >:(

 
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: tigers_gonads on 05 November 2015, 11:22:01
seems to be a bomb smuggled on board, possibly by (and with) the bomber.  not a small bomb either. 

good move to ban flights while they check egyptian security - i remember we accidentally smuggled a 1 litre bottle of water past sharm security in hand luggage, inbound to UK ::).  that was 2008, after the 2006 liquids ban.



The aircraft had just reached its cruising altitude so the seatbelt signs would have just gone off.
Apparently, some sort of Ker motion was heard on the ADR just before it went quite.
Who is to say, some nutter got up out of his seat and headed to the toilets and pressed the button  :(

Also, if you look at the TV pictures of the tail section on the ground, you can see some of the metal edge has been blown / bent out  :(
That only happens for one reason   :( 
At that altitude, it wouldn't take much of a bomb to blow the tail off if you combine the inside / outside pressure difference.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Kevin Wood on 05 November 2015, 11:30:23
It could still quite easily have been caused by a structural failure or a hard-over of, for example, the elevator control surface, causing the rear end of the fuselage to be overstressed.

Having said that, the fact that the government has acted suggests it knows something. The accident investigation might not have officially stated it yet, they might even be trying to keep a lid on it, but, I would imagine that government surveillance would have picked up that something was going on, quite independently. Then a plane drops out of the sky in the area, and it's not hard to put two and two together, even without access to the physical evidence. :(

It would not have been a pleasant ride for those on-board once the tail had gone, that's for sure. Let's hope it was a mercifully short one. :'(
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: tigers_gonads on 05 November 2015, 11:41:30
It could still quite easily have been caused by a structural failure or a hard-over of, for example, the elevator control surface, causing the rear end of the fuselage to be overstressed.

Having said that, the fact that the government has acted suggests it knows something. The accident investigation might not have officially stated it yet, they might even be trying to keep a lid on it, but, I would imagine that government surveillance would have picked up that something was going on, quite independently. Then a plane drops out of the sky in the area, and it's not hard to put two and two together, even without access to the physical evidence. :(



It would not have been a pleasant ride for those on-board once the tail had gone, that's for sure. Let's hope it was a mercifully short one. :'(


Iirc, the aircraft was cruising along quite happily when it lost airspeed first then tipped nose over and descended at about 6000 feet a minute until it hit the ground  :(

At that height, I doubt anybody would have had a chance to grab a mask  :(
Even if they did, I believe the oxygen tanks are at the back of the aircraft so they would have passed out very quickly  :(
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: omega2018 on 05 November 2015, 14:54:49
most aircraft use chemically generated o2 for the drop down masks i think - http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Chemical_Oxygen_Generators (http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Chemical_Oxygen_Generators)
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: Filth_Mobile_Jim on 07 November 2015, 10:14:56
There was a rumour early on that the plane had had a tail strike on landing early on in its life. This can damage the rear bulkhead, which is critical for maintaining cabin pressure and gets cyclically loaded ever flight. So if it was damaged and poorly repaired or the damage not noticed, then eventually it could have failed. Instand depressurisation. Panels at tail get bent out like a bomb. Tail seperates and is found away from main fuselage. It all fits.

It happened before to a Japanese or Chinese airlines 747. But that managed to fly in for a few minutes before it hit a mountain. Just long enough for people to write letters to loved ones. Scary.
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: 05omegav6 on 07 November 2015, 15:26:31
Given all the other shit now happening, this theory holds no water and has no evidence to support it :y

Structural decompression at altitude, whilst damaging, is rarely fatal to the aircraft, especially since that Jal crash in 1987. Failings which resulted in that incident are widely documented so checks to repairs in that area would be far more stringent as a direct result. Also impending structural failure usually gives notice as an unusual noise or vibration and are recorded by the black boxes, closely followed by "What was that?"/"Did you feel/hear that?" on the voice recorder. No such anomalies have been reported

Assisted decompression, ie an explosive blast, is almost guaranteed to destroy the aircraft provided the blast is big enough. By that I mean that simply blowing out a window or popping a small hole in the skin will only serve to make the cabin uncomfortable until the aircraft decends. A decent sized bomb in the rear hold would produce what we have seen in Egypt.

I won't post pictures, as the images are easy enough to find, but compare United 811, mechanical decompression of the forward hold at cruising altitude, (the cargo door opened itself due to a wiring fault and weak deadlocks), with Pan Am 103. Assisted decompression of the forward hold at cruising altitude, (this time an explosive devicein the centre of the hold). Both the same aircraft type, similar events with one significant difference... one aircraft landed safely with a loss of only nine people, tother aircraft didn't and everyone onboard perished.

And if you want to get an idea of the structural sections of a 220-240 narrow bodied airliner, then click here (Britannia B757, Girona in bad weather) (http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=boeing+757+crash+in+spain&hl=en-GB&v=141338691&biw=1280&bih=800&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAmoVChMI6uSHrMz-yAIVAnQPCh2dPwf4&dpr=1).

Compare to the images from Egypt and try to disprove a bomb towards the front of the rear cargo hold :'(
Title: Re: calling oof air crash investigators
Post by: biggriffin on 09 November 2015, 10:30:24
Mmm.
 A bomb. How or why did a Russian plane blow up?
 well Holmes,
 What about an upset Ukrainian, who might have been on hollybobs, in Egypt, and then went shopping,?
 I say Watson , now why would a Ukrainian want to blow up a Russian plane.

Were's Cem when you need him, arr well rods will have to do ::)