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Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: STEMO on 24 June 2016, 15:53:05

Title: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: STEMO on 24 June 2016, 15:53:05
Just heard an interesting, and possibly sinister, theory on CNBC. Rick Santelli reckons that they knew it was very close, possibly even 50/50, so they tried to influence the outcome by making appear that 'remain' was almost a forgone conclusion. That thinking is that, once the exiters saw the bookies odds and money markets flourishing, they would give it up and not bother to vote.
Not my theory........but it's not inconceivable.
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Mister Rog on 24 June 2016, 16:04:43
An interesting one, but I'm not aware that bookies are ever happy about losing money. BUT, if there was some big conspiracy behind it all, who knows.

I mean I tried to influence matters. I stood outside the polling station and if I saw someone going in who I thought might vote one way I'd trip 'em up and kick 'em, if I thought they were going to vote the other way I'd help them in. Maybe I'm not a good judge of people and neither are the bookies  ;)
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 24 June 2016, 16:26:52
Just heard an interesting, and possibly sinister, theory on CNBC. Rick Santelli reckons that they knew it was very close, possibly even 50/50, so they tried to influence the outcome by making appear that 'remain' was almost a forgone conclusion. That thinking is that, once the exiters saw the bookies odds and money markets flourishing, they would give it up and not bother to vote.
Not my theory........but it's not inconceivable.

Whatever next?

The moon landings were faked. ::) ::) ::) ;)
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: omegod on 24 June 2016, 16:47:20
Cant recall which one but there was a bookie on BBC crowing it was a definite remain win at about 11:30pm, I clocked the daily fail website reporting a remain win at 52%/48% at midnight and convinced myself it was all a fix. Woke up stunned to see a leave win  :o 

I've been called racist, fascist, thick and a c.nut today on social media in some of the vilest arguments I've ever witnessed. Only one of the names I was called is true mind    ;D
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: STEMO on 24 June 2016, 17:01:45
Cant recall which one but there was a bookie on BBC crowing it was a definite remain win at about 11:30pm, I clocked the daily fail website reporting a remain win at 52%/48% at midnight and convinced myself it was all a fix. Woke up stunned to see a leave win  :o 

I've been called racist, fascist, thick and a c.nut today on social media in some of the vilest arguments I've ever witnessed. Only one of the names I was called is true mind    ;D
They didn't call you an Everton supporter? Bastards.  ;D
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: biggriffin on 24 June 2016, 17:23:09
Just heard an interesting, and possibly sinister, theory on CNBC. Rick Santelli reckons that they knew it was very close, possibly even 50/50, so they tried to influence the outcome by making appear that 'remain' was almost a forgone conclusion. That thinking is that, once the exiters saw the bookies odds and money markets flourishing, they would give it up and not bother to vote.
Not my theory........but it's not inconceivable.

Whatever next?

The moon landings were faked. ::) ::) ::) ;)

 and Elvis works in a chip shop, So says daily sport.
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Nick W on 24 June 2016, 17:53:55

Whatever next?

The moon landings were faked. ::) ::) ::) ;)

 and Elvis works in a chip shop, So says daily sport.


No, he only swears he does.
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 24 June 2016, 18:10:16
Not sure why, but it seems they all got a shock. Complacency perhaps ?
My daughter got a phone call at 4am today "there is a taxi waiting outside your door. get in it and get to work - now".  ;D
Wasn't a happy bunny, but apparently made a lot of money today.  ::)
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: ronnyd on 24 June 2016, 21:28:21
I went to bed just after midnight last night as i couldn,t be arsed to listen to the endless rambling of the media and their wheeled in so called "experts". Though i voted leave, i expected the vote to be for remain. Was shocked when i turned the T/V on this morning and the country had voted OUT. :o :o
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Field Marshal Dr. Opti on 24 June 2016, 21:32:00
Just heard an interesting, and possibly sinister, theory on CNBC. Rick Santelli reckons that they knew it was very close, possibly even 50/50, so they tried to influence the outcome by making appear that 'remain' was almost a forgone conclusion. That thinking is that, once the exiters saw the bookies odds and money markets flourishing, they would give it up and not bother to vote.
Not my theory........but it's not inconceivable.

Whatever next?

The moon landings were faked. ::) ::) ::) ;)

 and Elvis works in a chip shop, So says daily sport.

Yep.....along with Hitler found alive and well on Mars. :)
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Varche on 24 June 2016, 22:53:23
Easily manipulated. Lots of low value punts on Out, a few very high bets on Remain. The bookies then lower the odds on Remain and it looks as though all the money is actually going on Remain. It was predicted on forums way before it actually happened.
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: LC0112G on 24 June 2016, 22:59:05
I suspect they all got it wrong because the mainstream media are so London centric and London was a firm Remain. They knew Scotland would vote remain, and simply didn't consider that anything else outside the M25 and home counties would be any different.

I realised the game was probably up once the Sunderland result came in at about 00:30. If Sunderland had been a narrow Leave, then the predictions (for an overall narrow Remain) would have been on track. When it turned into a 60/40 leave then everyone realised the polls were wrong, and the markets reacted accordingly (crashed).
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Steve B on 25 June 2016, 00:00:46
I suspect they all got it wrong because the mainstream media are so London centric and London was a firm Remain. They knew Scotland would vote remain, and simply didn't consider that anything else outside the M25 and home counties would be any different.

I realised the game was probably up once the Sunderland result came in at about 00:30. If Sunderland had been a narrow Leave, then the predictions (for an overall narrow Remain) would have been on track. When it turned into a 60/40 leave then everyone realised the polls were wrong, and the markets reacted accordingly (crashed).
I think your about spot on there  :y
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Migv6 le Frog Fan on 25 June 2016, 00:07:19
The markets had to take a position on what was going to happen. Remain was the more likely outcome - by a small margin - so they went with that. It seemed to gather its own momentum from there, and many people apparently assumed it was a near certainty.
Title: Re: How could the bookies and the markets be so wrong?
Post by: Doctor Gollum on 25 June 2016, 01:22:06
The markets had to take a position on what was going to happen. Remain was the more likely outcome - by a small margin - so they went with that. It seemed to gather its own momentum from there, and many people apparently assumed it was a near certainty.
Typical metropolitan arrogance imho... and deservedly knocked down a peg or four by the silent majority.