Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Nickbat on 06 August 2008, 23:53:06
-
..but I can't find my post about it!
However, I did say that, in my view, the price of oil will fall back to $60-$80 per barrel in September. OK, it's not September yet and the price of oil is still over $100, but here's Deutsche Bank's take on it:
Deutsche Bank has called the top of the commodity cycle. The uber-bulls of the oil, food and metals boom have advised clients to take profits before the downturn engulfing most of the global economy works its inevitable effects.
Oil will slide back towards its "marginal production cost" of $60 to $80 a barrel; gold will slump to $650 an ounce as the dollar recovers against the euro; copper, lead and tin will slowly halve in price; grains will calm down as harvests in Australia and the Eurasian Steppe return to normal.
The report comes on cue. The CRB commodity index fell 10pc last month, the steepest one-month drop since the onset of the Volcker crunch in 1980. Most raw materials have been slipping for months. Crude was the last to turn after peaking at $147 early last month.
Deutsche Bank says this year's oil surge has been a quirk. Misjudging demand, Saudi Arabia cut output by 400,000 barrels a day (bpd). Several upsets hit the non-Opec bloc of Russia, Norway, the UK, and Mexico. Rebels caused mayhem in Nigeria. Global supply is now creeping back into surplus.
The Saudis are adding 500,000 bpd. Deepwater projects are coming on stream off the US, Mexico, China, and Africa. The Caspian is cranking up a gear. Non-Opec will add 2.2m bpd over this year and next, says the International Energy Agency.
For more, check out this very good website (http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/)
-
Unleaded around here is at £1-13/litre. Even if it does drop back as predicted still can't see the price per litre dropping anywhere near the £1 mark. :(
-
Unleaded around here is at £1-13/litre. Even if it does drop back as predicted still can't see the price per litre dropping anywhere near the £1 mark. :(
It will drop below £1, mark my words. :y
-
.. and my local LPG garage went up 1p a litre today. Strike them off the list. No more fillups there. >:(
Kevin
-
If it does drop below a £1 a litre it wouldn't be because there may be an election coming around soon will it? Or is that me just being cynical...... ::)
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
-
i hope you're right nickbat :)
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho? :-?
i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet ;)
its fascinating and scary when you look into it :o
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho? :-?
i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet ;)
its fascinating and scary when you look into it :o
Yep!
Reuters
ANALYSIS-US oil firms seek drilling access, but exports soar
07.03.08, 2:40 PM ET
United States - By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON3 (Reuters) - While the U.S. oil industry want access to more federal lands to help reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, American-based companies are shipping record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel to other countries.
A record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.
And they have exported (crude oil) for many a year...see: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1m.htm, although the amount is tiny.
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
Yes agreed, the US has been exporting oil. However, this was at a time when fuel costs in Britain were on the increase.
I doubt the government will allow prices to drop below 1 GBP per litre. (Sorry no pound sign on my keyboard!)
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho? :-?
i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet ;)
its fascinating and scary when you look into it :o
Yep!
Reuters
ANALYSIS-US oil firms seek drilling access, but exports soar
07.03.08, 2:40 PM ET
United States - By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON3 (Reuters) - While the U.S. oil industry want access to more federal lands to help reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, American-based companies are shipping record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel to other countries.
A record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.
And they have exported (crude oil) for many a year...see: http://[highlight]http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1m.htm[/highlight], although the amount is tiny.
wow - like you say - its a small amount - but still - US are the biggest consumers - i wonder what countries they export to? maybe its all going to canada :o
-
Hi, running your vehicle on gas is always an increasing cost, but there is a way that can be more profitable than this. Now you can easily use a system that allows you to convert your fuel costs to save huge amounts of running your vehicle. You can learn to build a simple inexpensive device, attach it to a vehicle's engine and convert that vehicle into a water-burning hybrid (http://www.hydrotechcar.com/).
-
Same old story... If this was really viable then the car manufacturers would be doing it! ::) ::)
Right... I'm off for that free lunch :D :D :D
-
I can see both sides of the argument here for prices to stay up and to come down. I suspect they will settle in the middle but still over the 100dollar a barrel point.
Like it or not the Saudis( friends of terrorists like Osama BL) have a huge vested interest in getting the price right. I still think it is very likely that they will fund our (UK) nuclear power stations and so when their oil starts to dry up they will have a different cash cow. What a truly horrible thought.
varche
-
.. and my local LPG garage went up 1p a litre today. Strike them off the list. No more fillups there. >:(
Kevin
our local one has dropped back by 5ppl, we are back at 53ppl now :y
-
.. and my local LPG garage went up 1p a litre today. Strike them off the list. No more fillups there. >:(
Kevin
our local one has dropped back by 5ppl, we are back at 53ppl now :y
53p? Blimey. What brand is that?
Been away for a week but the mainstream stations I passed tonight are still 61.9 with the odd 59.9 here. >:(
Kevin
-
Believe it or not I can get LPG under 50ppl in Cardiff still.
I paid £1.12 for BP Ultimate tonight though, only a penny dearer than BP standard. £80 to filll the tank.
still not tooooooo bad... if I'm careful how I use the car this could last me up to a week...
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho? :-?
i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet ;)
its fascinating and scary when you look into it :o
Yep!
Reuters
ANALYSIS-US oil firms seek drilling access, but exports soar
07.03.08, 2:40 PM ET
United States - By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON3 (Reuters) - While the U.S. oil industry want access to more federal lands to help reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, American-based companies are shipping record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel to other countries.
A record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.
And they have exported (crude oil) for many a year...see: http://[highlight]http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1m.htm[/highlight], although the amount is tiny.
wow - like you say - its a small amount - but still - US are the biggest consumers - i wonder what countries they export to? maybe its all going to canada :o
it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid
$99 today. Sorry, had to do it! ;) ;D ;D
-
now we have to wait for petrol go drop below a pound per litre.....may be a bit o a long shot that one, although I really want to believe it will happen
-
OPEC are doing their Damnedest to ensure it doesn't drop too. >:(
Hopefully the economic climate will hit demand soon and they'll have no option. Then again, it's winter soon.
Kevin
-
Re Oil price, petrol seems to go up fast and come down slowly >:(
-
You want to try domestic heating oil... Ordered yesterday and even after a real good deal on price it's still 100% more than this time last year at 50.3ppl >:( >:(
-
when i was in the first gulf war our unit was based near an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and i was sent to it to ask for an empty barrel to cut up for a barbecue.
when we arrived, in broken Arab (so broken it was destroyed) we asked for an empty barrel and was ushered up some stairs to a very regal plush and gold ridden office.
sitting at a desk was a sultan looking guy with all the dress and garb and the guy who guided us there backed out bowing all the way.
the "sultan,emir, top bloke" asked us, with the aid of a translator, how much oil we would be needing to start off the war!!!!! ;D
he thought that i was some high ranking officer coming cap in hand for some fuel!!! ;D
after some extensive explanations he offered us an empty barrell and a big cigar each and we made our way out :y
i wish i had kept his number, may have come in handy with the price of fuel nowadays :D
-
$100 per barrel is the new floor price for oil - ie it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid - so this is about as cheap as its goin to get - every oil producing nation has peaked either recently (eg Russia 2007, Mexico 2004, Norway 2000) or way back (eg USA 1970, Iran 1974, Libya 1970)
only 3 main oil producers have yet to start to slide down the other side of the production graph and they are reckoned to be :-
Kuwait - predicted 2013 (see why the good ole US of A helped them?)
Saudi Arabia - predicted 2014 (they pretty much own the USA - i think about 1/3 of the entire US economy is Saudi Arabian - so please don't p@*& them off )
oh, and another little country in the middle east, goes by the name of Iraq - predicted 2018 to peak
hmmm - that makes Iraq pretty valuable.....I wonder if?......nah surely not....we couldn't just STEAL the oil.....could we?........hmmmmm - well - we'd have to invent a reason to go there......
you're right - too far fetched - its late - and i'm getting paranoid :y
Bet it will.
Incidentally, that "bet" is based on production/demand and excludes political influences (e.g. Israel/Iran) Did you know that the US recently exported oil? Can't find the link right now but it is true.
US are definitely the largest importers - dont know if they ever export - maybe when the price was at its peak earlier this year some US oil companies gambled on a quick profit tho? :-?
i would guess they keep that kinda stuff quiet ;)
its fascinating and scary when you look into it :o
Yep!
Reuters
ANALYSIS-US oil firms seek drilling access, but exports soar
07.03.08, 2:40 PM ET
United States - By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON3 (Reuters) - While the U.S. oil industry want access to more federal lands to help reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, American-based companies are shipping record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel to other countries.
A record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.
And they have exported (crude oil) for many a year...see: http://[highlight]http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1m.htm[/highlight], although the amount is tiny.
wow - like you say - its a small amount - but still - US are the biggest consumers - i wonder what countries they export to? maybe its all going to canada :o
it will never go below $100 again i'm afraid
$99 today. Sorry, had to do it! ;) ;D ;D
;D ;D i was waiting for that Nickbat!!!
fair play - it has dipped below $100 - but not for long :(