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Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: cem_devecioglu on 15 September 2008, 14:21:07

Title: A black hole in market
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 15 September 2008, 14:21:07
Seems like this is no more a short term crysis..And will effect many countries.. :-?

I'm curious while all these happen everybody fall a sleep :(


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1055736/Black-Monday-Bank-England-pumps-5bn-markets-collapse-Wall-Street-giant-Lehman-Brothers.html
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Jay w on 15 September 2008, 15:22:19
WOW!!! where does this end???

i only hope that the 'tremors' are not felt too badly over here
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 15 September 2008, 15:26:36
As from global economy , most of the markets are strongly connected..I'm afraid will effect also UK..(I dont think this will be minimal)

Problem is ,you cant estimate whoever have those worthless papers in their hands now..
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 15 September 2008, 15:32:17
In 2001 when the financial crisis hit my country, I know what it means to take your baggage and leave the office with a last look :(
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Jay w on 15 September 2008, 16:28:10
Quote
In 2001 when the financial crisis hit my country, I know what it means to take your baggage and leave the office with a last look :(

well if i do that i am leaving my house behind as well......i work from home  :o
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: DaveyDavey on 15 September 2008, 16:53:03
I love the way media seize on a few statistics and then tell the world that everything is going to end. >:(

Whilst HBOS shares did fall by a third today they are currently trading only 16% down. The FTSE100 was down over 200 points but has since climbed back up above that figure. Okay, I accept that at the time of press these figures were accurate but prices change daily and the only true price is the one at the end of trading, which tells us how bad things were. We've got 15 minutes or so left of trading and I'd be surprised if the FTSE does close 200 points down  ;)

Just to put things into perspective:

14 March 2007    6000.37                  
13 July 2007       6718.70      +12%            
16 August 2007   5858.90      - 13%
16 October 2007  6644.50      +13%
16 December      6284.70            -5.5%

17 March 2008    5414.40      -14%
19 May 2008       6376.50           +17%
15 Sept 2008      5224.00            -18%

Considering that the sub-prime fiasco started 18 months ago, we've not done too badly with it so far. It just looks worse today because of all the panic in the market.

You'd never guess I'd been fielding phone calls about this all day long now would you  :y
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: HolyCount on 15 September 2008, 17:41:40
Thing is, Davey, whatever the stats say, if big banks and big business's are going down the tubes the outlook is bleak for Joe Public. Let's face it, we have Gordon in charge  :'(
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Markie on 15 September 2008, 17:45:46
...and now AIG go cap in hand to the federal bank for a loan to stay afloat.

Same Federal Bank said "no" to Lehman last night....

I suspect this is about to go into meltdown.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/business/15aig.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Golfbuddy on 15 September 2008, 18:55:28
Now, I'm not an economist or an American accountancy lawyer but, as far as I can see, Lehman Bros have applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Not gone bust, down the tubes, down the pan or any other sensationalist rubbish that the BBC and their cronies would have us believe.

Sure, this is not a perfect situation but it's not exactly 'meltdown' either.

For those who are not familiar with the concept of 'Chapter 11' it goes like this:

"When a troubled business is unable to service its debt or pay its creditors, the business or its creditors can file with a federal bankruptcy court for protection under either chapter 7 or chapter 11. In chapter 7, the business ceases operations and a trustee sells all of its assets and distributes the proceeds to its creditors. A chapter 11 filing is usually an attempt to stay in business while a bankruptcy court supervises the "reorganization" of the company's contractual and debt obligations. The court can grant complete or partial relief from most of the company's debts and its contracts, so that the company can make a fresh start. Sometimes, if the business's debts exceed its assets, then at the completion of bankruptcy the company's owners all end up without anything; all their rights and interests are ended and the company's creditors are left with ownership of the newly reorganized company.

In enacting chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy code, Congress concluded that it is sometimes the case that the value of a business is greater if sold or reorganized as a going concern than the value of the sum of its parts if the business's assets were to be sold off individually. It follows that it may be more economically efficient to allow a troubled company to continue running, cancel some of its debts, and give ownership of the newly reorganized company to the creditors whose debts were canceled. Alternatively, the business can be sold as a going concern with the net proceeds of the sale distributed to creditors ratably in accordance with statutory priorities. In this way, jobs may be saved, the engine of profitability which is the business is maintained rather than being dismantled, and, as a proponent of a chapter 11 plan is required to demonstrate as a precursor to plan confirmation, the business's creditors end up with more money than they would in a chapter 7 liquidation."

Source. Wikipedia who can put it better than me!

As I say, not perfect but a long way from what is being portrayed in our dumbed down, sensationalist mainstream media!!!
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Bandit127 on 15 September 2008, 19:00:36
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Markie on 15 September 2008, 19:02:02
Quote
Now, I'm not an economist or an American accountancy lawyer but, as far as I can see, Lehman Bros have applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Not gone bust, down the tubes, down the pan or any other sensationalist rubbish that the BBC and their cronies would have us believe.

Sure, this is not a perfect situation but it's not exactly 'meltdown' either.

For those who are not familiar with the concept of 'Chapter 11' it goes like this:

"When a troubled business is unable to service its debt or pay its creditors, the business or its creditors can file with a federal bankruptcy court for protection under either chapter 7 or chapter 11. In chapter 7, the business ceases operations and a trustee sells all of its assets and distributes the proceeds to its creditors. A chapter 11 filing is usually an attempt to stay in business while a bankruptcy court supervises the "reorganization" of the company's contractual and debt obligations. The court can grant complete or partial relief from most of the company's debts and its contracts, so that the company can make a fresh start. Sometimes, if the business's debts exceed its assets, then at the completion of bankruptcy the company's owners all end up without anything; all their rights and interests are ended and the company's creditors are left with ownership of the newly reorganized company.

In enacting chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy code, Congress concluded that it is sometimes the case that the value of a business is greater if sold or reorganized as a going concern than the value of the sum of its parts if the business's assets were to be sold off individually. It follows that it may be more economically efficient to allow a troubled company to continue running, cancel some of its debts, and give ownership of the newly reorganized company to the creditors whose debts were canceled. Alternatively, the business can be sold as a going concern with the net proceeds of the sale distributed to creditors ratably in accordance with statutory priorities. In this way, jobs may be saved, the engine of profitability which is the business is maintained rather than being dismantled, and, as a proponent of a chapter 11 plan is required to demonstrate as a precursor to plan confirmation, the business's creditors end up with more money than they would in a chapter 7 liquidation."

Source. Wikipedia who can put it better than me!

As I say, not perfect but a long way from what is being portrayed in our dumbed down, sensationalist mainstream media!!!


Your absolutely correct  :y

However in todays climate theres little to no hope of the company remaining as is....this is the start of the gentle tap of the nails in to the coffin  :-/
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Golfbuddy on 15 September 2008, 19:06:41
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Bandit127 on 15 September 2008, 19:12:39
Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)

Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: HolyCount on 15 September 2008, 19:15:57
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.

It was, after all, in the Mail !!!!!  However, Chapter 11 or not, the basis is much the same as being bankrupt --- debts outweigh assets and the company is being run by administrators. They will act to get the best return for creditors --- can't see much difference really --- still down the pan (as opposed to happily trading without a care in the world)
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 15 September 2008, 19:21:56
Fact is we are talking about the results..

The reason lying behind a historical - huge bank(s) collapsing is not that simple..And possibly we only see the edge of iceberg..

When 2001 crysis hit us , the banks here collapse one after another..

The reason was the open position of the banks on external credits..

Although theoritically it can be said : economical system is correcting itself , the short term and long term effects can not be predicted easily..

Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Golfbuddy on 15 September 2008, 19:24:12
Quote
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.

It was, after all, in the Mail !!!!!  However, Chapter 11 or not, the basis is much the same as being bankrupt --- debts outweigh assets and the company is being run by administrators. They will act to get the best return for creditors --- can't see much difference really --- still down the pan (as opposed to happily trading without a care in the world)

Sorry Count, I don't think that's quite right. Lehman Bros in London has appointed PWC to oversee the closure of the London office. It stands to reason that a company would not expect the local management to undertake such a massive task. The office is closing because the company needs to make big cut backs and is doing badly.

Lehman Bros in America will continue to be run by the existing management unless the company decides to make changes at that level. As with any organisation, if you cannot meet your liabilities and all of your creditors call their debts in at once then you are technically bankrupt. Chapter 11 protects a company from this scenario and allows it to trade its way out of the predicament it is in. Chapter 11 protection can, and often does, last for many years.

As I said above, I don't know all of the intricacies of this but it's still a long way from the garbage I've heard on the news since I got home from work.
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: HolyCount on 15 September 2008, 19:29:16
Quote
Quote
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.

It was, after all, in the Mail !!!!!  However, Chapter 11 or not, the basis is much the same as being bankrupt --- debts outweigh assets and the company is being run by administrators. They will act to get the best return for creditors --- can't see much difference really --- still down the pan (as opposed to happily trading without a care in the world)

Sorry Count, I don't think that's quite right. Lehman Bros in London has appointed PWC to oversee the closure of the London office. It stands to reason that a company would not expect the local management to undertake such a massive task. The office is closing because the company needs to make big cut backs and is doing badly.

Lehman Bros in America will continue to be run by the existing management unless the company decides to make changes at that level. As with any organisation, if you cannot meet your liabilities and all of your creditors call their debts in at once then you are technically bankrupt. Chapter 11 protects a company from this scenario and allows it to trade its way out of the predicament it is in. Chapter 11 protection can, and often does, last for many years.

As I said above, I don't know all of the intricacies of this but it's still a long way from the garbage I've heard on the news since I got home from work.

Granted, it's a long way from the sensationalist garbage, however, it is far from good news. If the "financial experts" are failing financially there is trouble afoot. Admittedly the media frenzy will make matters appear worse than they actually are --- however, this often becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy.

And, there is no denying, for whatever reason, we ARE in the clag !!!!

BTW Golfbuddy -- I see you are from the Cornish Palantine State. My families financial wisdom is legendary for foolhardiness. Once owned half the County -- now own zilch ---- so don't listen to me  ::)
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Martin_1962 on 15 September 2008, 19:31:00
Quote
Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)



Got rid of an endowment with them a few years ago
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: HolyCount on 15 September 2008, 19:32:57
Quote
Quote
Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)



Got rid of an endowment with them a few years ago

Who? Friends Provident or Doomsayers  ::) ::)  Be a great name for a bank these days !!!!!
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Golfbuddy on 15 September 2008, 19:34:07
Quote
Quote
Quote
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."

I quite agree that this is bad news for the UK staff of this bank. What I feel so strongly about is the deliberate misrepresentation of the facts during what are such uncertain times. Consumer confidence is vital if we are not to descend into a much more serious situation than we already are in. The average man in the street sees and hears these headlines and takes them at face value.

I believe that this is one of the most irresponsible pieces of reporting that I have seen in a long time, produced by people with a vested interest in telling bad news.

It was, after all, in the Mail !!!!!  However, Chapter 11 or not, the basis is much the same as being bankrupt --- debts outweigh assets and the company is being run by administrators. They will act to get the best return for creditors --- can't see much difference really --- still down the pan (as opposed to happily trading without a care in the world)

Sorry Count, I don't think that's quite right. Lehman Bros in London has appointed PWC to oversee the closure of the London office. It stands to reason that a company would not expect the local management to undertake such a massive task. The office is closing because the company needs to make big cut backs and is doing badly.

Lehman Bros in America will continue to be run by the existing management unless the company decides to make changes at that level. As with any organisation, if you cannot meet your liabilities and all of your creditors call their debts in at once then you are technically bankrupt. Chapter 11 protects a company from this scenario and allows it to trade its way out of the predicament it is in. Chapter 11 protection can, and often does, last for many years.

As I said above, I don't know all of the intricacies of this but it's still a long way from the garbage I've heard on the news since I got home from work.

Granted, it's a long way from the sensationalist garbage, however, it is far from good news. If the "financial experts" are failing financially there is trouble afoot. Admittedly the media frenzy will make matters appear worse than they actually are --- however, this often becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy.

And, there is no denying, for whatever reason, we ARE in the clag !!!!

BTW Golfbuddy -- I see you are from the Cornish Palantine State. My families financial wisdom is legendary for foolhardiness. Once owned half the County -- now own zilch ---- so don't listen to me  ::)

Couldn't have put it better myself.  ;D

My advice; go and make a totally spontaneous and pointless high value purchase. It will make you feel better and help to boost the economy. Definately a win/win :y
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Bandit127 on 15 September 2008, 19:36:53
Quote
Quote
Quote
Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)



Got rid of an endowment with them a few years ago

Who? Friends Provident or Doomsayers  ::) ::)  Be a great name for a bank these days !!!!!
Or a more honest name for a leading tabloid...  ;D
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: HolyCount on 15 September 2008, 19:39:22
Quote
Quote
Quote
Quote
Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)



Got rid of an endowment with them a few years ago

Who? Friends Provident or Doomsayers  ::) ::)  Be a great name for a bank these days !!!!!
Or a more honest name for a leading tabloid...  ;D

VERY true   ;D ;D
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Ken T on 15 September 2008, 19:58:18
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."


A quick statistic, 4000 people and £42M per month, blimey thats over £10000 each per MONTH. Nice work if you can get it.  :o :o :o

I recon we'll talk ourselves into a recession, if we try hard enough. If there's enough doom and gloom in the press then people stop spending, then hey presto a recession. Mind you it might stop this vast consumption of consumer goods, and people throwing away perfectly good TV's etc, just because they ain't the latest hi def picture or whatever.

Ken
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: HolyCount on 15 September 2008, 20:13:51
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."


A quick statistic, 4000 people and £42M per month, blimey thats over £10000 each per MONTH. Nice work if you can get it.  :o :o :o

I recon we'll talk ourselves into a recession, if we try hard enough. If there's enough doom and gloom in the press then people stop spending, then hey presto a recession. Mind you it might stop this vast consumption of consumer goods, and people throwing away perfectly good TV's etc, just because they ain't the latest hi def picture or whatever.

Ken

There you go -- you have uncovered the answer --- it's a global government plot to halt the greenhouse effect !!!!
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Martin_1962 on 15 September 2008, 20:36:06
Quote
Quote
Quote
Markets are down about 2-5%. The worst hit in the UK is Freinds Provident, down 17.85%. (Despite HBOS leading the headlines all day).

Well done the Doomsayers :y. Black Monday turned out to be very slightly Gray Monday  ::)



Got rid of an endowment with them a few years ago

Who? Friends Provident or Doomsayers  ::) ::)  Be a great name for a bank these days !!!!!


Friends Provident - got rid of both now - waste of time, repayment is cheaper
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Bandit127 on 15 September 2008, 20:42:49
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."


A quick statistic, 4000 people and £42M per month, blimey thats over £10000 each per MONTH. Nice work if you can get it.  :o :o :o

I recon we'll talk ourselves into a recession, if we try hard enough. If there's enough doom and gloom in the press then people stop spending, then hey presto a recession. Mind you it might stop this vast consumption of consumer goods, and people throwing away perfectly good TV's etc, just because they ain't the latest hi def picture or whatever.

Ken
Good effort with the stats, but let's 'hone' it a bit...

3m for the 5 top cheeses = £600k a month each. That's 1m left for the rest of the staff (3995)  = £2,500 a month. A bit more realistic.

It's actually more complex and less extreme than that - but a bit more accurate than the original estimate - but I am taking Mr Pareto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle) in vain.

Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Ken T on 15 September 2008, 21:04:42
Quote
Quote
Quote
Chapter 11 is fine in the States and may not look that serious.

In the UK brach, the administrators are in and struggling to find the money to pay the wages at the end of this week. 4,000 people  :(

From the Beeb:
Quote
PWC told a news conference in London that it is unclear whether Lehman's UK staff will get paid the $75m (£42m) that they are owed in wages this month.

"When we took over this morning, there was no cash in the company," said Tony Lomas from PWC.

"We still don't know what the position is - we will tell staff as soon as we know if we can, or if it is appropriate to pay staff on Friday."


A quick statistic, 4000 people and £42M per month, blimey thats over £10000 each per MONTH. Nice work if you can get it.  :o :o :o

I recon we'll talk ourselves into a recession, if we try hard enough. If there's enough doom and gloom in the press then people stop spending, then hey presto a recession. Mind you it might stop this vast consumption of consumer goods, and people throwing away perfectly good TV's etc, just because they ain't the latest hi def picture or whatever.

Ken

There you go -- you have uncovered the answer --- it's a global government plot to halt the greenhouse effect !!!!

Now, wait a  minute, thats crediting them with intellegence, you can't go doing that.  ;D ;D ;D

I find it hard to believe that nobody bothered to look in to these marvelous investments that everybody was pouring so much dosh into. I mean a responsible financial controller would have said "oh look the banks are making a lot of dosh. Where's it coming from?". And when he found out, he should have knocked some heads together, then not now. The old maxim about shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, well it seems to happen time after time, yet we never learn.

Never mind the laptop repair business is going from strength to strength, so I'm all right Jack !.

Ken
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Jay w on 15 September 2008, 22:34:43
whichever way it is looked at there are some tough times ahead and some will suffer more than others >:(

as i said on another post, i don't listen to the news anymore, it is all doom and gloom, it is fair to say that this is the news of the day, but as has been talked about here, it would be nice if they got the facts right instead of scaremongering....but that seems to be what journalism is about these days  >:(

i am no different from a lot of other people, i have my house and a few small debts, and still i wonder if we will make it through, one thing i can be sure of, the money market will be a very different place when all of this has calmed down....at least for a while....

maybe it is a good thing to have this hardship, it gives people a chance to realise that the excesses we have created over the last 10 years or so........
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: albitz on 15 September 2008, 23:02:30
Lehmans gone bust (or as good as) merrill  lynch only afloat because Bank of America bought themj ust before they went the same way,huge American insuranse corporation teetering on the brink,fanny mae and freddie mac (with many trillions worth of U.S. mortages between them)only saved by the government. I dont think the media have talked this one up,the U.S. economy is in very deep $h1t and the rest of us are gonna suffer . :(
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Kevin Wood on 15 September 2008, 23:31:44
Quote
maybe it is a good thing to have this hardship, it gives people a chance to realise that the excesses we have created over the last 10 years or so........

It's not as if it wasn't clearly coming. It's obvious that the economy has been fuelled by unsustainable levels of consumer, business and government debt for several years. I can understand consumers "living for today" and getting into trouble. What amazes me is that the banks have left themselves so exposed to it as well.

Kevin
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: albitz on 15 September 2008, 23:34:32
And maybe the consumers were following the example of the government-chancellor Brown in particular. :y
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 16 September 2008, 08:34:14
Quote
Quote
maybe it is a good thing to have this hardship, it gives people a chance to realise that the excesses we have created over the last 10 years or so........

It's not as if it wasn't clearly coming. It's obvious that the economy has been fuelled by unsustainable levels of consumer, business and government debt for several years. I can understand consumers "living for today" and getting into trouble. What amazes me is that the banks have left themselves so exposed to it as well.
Kevin

exactly..but tragedy is these bank managers let themselves for the Niagara effect following the general system behaviour..
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Kevin Wood on 16 September 2008, 09:28:32
I guess that's the way the industry works. The longer we are in boom the more schemes and "creative" investments get generated to make even more money, subject to even more risk, and the whole industry exposes itself.

We need a correction every so often to bring them back down to earth. What surprises me is that they commit themselves to the extent that they go under when the correction comes rather than having a plan for when the rainy day comes. Suppose that's why I'm an engineer not a city trader. :-/

Kevin
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 16 September 2008, 09:49:08
Quote
I guess that's the way the industry works. The longer we are in boom the more schemes and "creative" investments get generated to make even more money, subject to even more risk, and the whole industry exposes itself.

We need a correction every so often to bring them back down to earth. What surprises me is that they commit themselves to the extent that they go under when the correction comes rather than having a plan for when the rainy day comes. Suppose that's why I'm an engineer not a city trader. :-/

Kevin

yep..keeping risks away is our job..thats what we dont understand ;D
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: DaveyDavey on 16 September 2008, 09:59:54
One of the best examples of media spin was last week in the run up to the LHC being switched on at CERN. I recall a Headlines of "If you are reading this at 8:31 then it's all ok", in actual fact all they did was test run a proton beam to see if it did a full circuit, then a few hours later they ran one in the opposite direction. There was no collision, it was all media hype to sell papers.

Yesterday was bad news for financial markets, but we've seen worse already this year. On 16 July the FTSE100 touched a low of 5071, it came back up pretty quickly after that. Will it go below 5000? Who knows, that is a very important figure and it is in the interests of the city to make sure it doesn't as that would really rock confidence.
Title: Re: A black hole in market
Post by: Varche on 16 September 2008, 12:25:56
Remember a company called ntl ? They went into chapter 11. Change of senior managers, lost their debts, diluted share equity by I think 97% (if you owned £1000 worth they were worth £30 when trading recommenced).

They haven't done too bad out of "Chapter 11'ing" !  

varche

PS I don't like being a doom and gloom merchant but the current climate doesn't fill me with confidence. personally I think it will get much worse.