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Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: Nickbat on 02 November 2009, 00:19:54

Title: Winter weather
Post by: Nickbat on 02 November 2009, 00:19:54
I post this for general interest.

Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who expounds the theory that our weather is driven by solar influences (not CO2!  ;))

He has issued a forecast for the UK in November which predicts a possibly damaging storm surge along the East coast around the 17th to 19th of November. This storm, he claims, will be followed by much colder weather, possibly snow. The confidence in this event is now 85%. :o

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4282


In a similar vein, an amateur meteorologist, Mark Vogan, who is a baker at Asda (true!!), forecasts a very cold winter in Europe and notes this:

"...by Christmas 2009 I expect to see snow covering much of the British Isles, Scotland, England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland should see snow and a Siberian-Scandinavian high settle in for the period between Dec 20th through New Year."

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/official-united-kingdom-and-europe.html


Finally, the Met Office, with the best computers money can buy, has this as their early indication for Winter 2009/10:

"Preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

It is going to be interesting to see how these predictions pan out! ;) 
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: threppence on 02 November 2009, 00:25:38
I'm hedging my bets,aired out me thermals and dug out the factor 30. :y

Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Gaffers on 02 November 2009, 00:29:00
I might stick a fiver on a white Xmas lol
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Banjax on 02 November 2009, 01:25:11
people skating on a frozen Thames, Xmas Day 150/1 with paddy power  :y

White Xmas London 4/1, Glasgow 3/1 which, if memory serves is shorter odds than the last few years   ;)

i hope the bakers right - i'd love a white xmas  :y :y
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Mr Skrunts on 02 November 2009, 01:40:28
Well it was wet and bloody windy allday Sunday for us,

Dont care what the weather does either way.  Stocking up on tinned food, just added a second freezer.  Dont care if we got snowed in for a month now.

Live fairly high up, rural village.  2 main roads in/out, both bus routes, but with H&S these days the buses get shut down early, so dont know what the gritter situation is.  Normally bus routes griited 1st.  Main road I use is a slightly steep long ingish road completely in the open with fields either side, so snow drifts possible.  Other road is flat but still has fields either side.  No main concerns wether wise for a few years, but if it returns to 70's conditions then will be interesting to see what happens.
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Debs. on 02 November 2009, 07:30:43
 ;) I have a way of nullifying both 'Winter-woes' predictions: I`ll have my Miggy prepared by carrying  snow-chains, shovel, chemical-handwarmers and a blanket......it`ll then surely be the warmest Winter on record! ;D
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Richie London on 02 November 2009, 07:39:39
best way to check the weather. look out the window. forecasts are rarely ever right anyway.
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Mr Skrunts on 02 November 2009, 08:47:07
Quote
;) I have a way of nullifying both 'Winter-woes' predictions: I`ll have my Miggy prepared by carrying  snow-chains, shovel, chemical-handwarmers and a blanket......it`ll then surely be the warmest Winter on record! ;D

At least you will be prepared Debs.  Sadly many motorists are not, which is why there is such chaos on the roads when the snow comes down.
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Jimbob on 02 November 2009, 08:50:20
Quote
;) I have a way of nullifying both 'Winter-woes' predictions: I`ll have my Miggy prepared by carrying  snow-chains, shovel, chemical-handwarmers and a blanket......it`ll then surely be the warmest Winter on record! ;D


You'll need em up on the hills  :y
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: PhilRich on 02 November 2009, 10:42:13
I'm putting my house on stilts! and the Omega on the house!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: cem_devecioglu on 02 November 2009, 12:49:34
Those people must have right !!!

from last week tuesday the temperature drop is 17 celcius..and today I see snow on cars coming from high areas :o :o
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Mr Skrunts on 02 November 2009, 16:59:39
Our tell tale signs for the weather are 2 roads that run accross Derbyshire.  Snake Pass and Woodhead.  When the weather starts to get bad, they seem to get it 1st and when bad they have to close the roads.

Also a friend of mine used to work in Pennistone, and mentioned that it seemed to have it's own weather system, so I normally used to get an early weather warning (He doesnt work there any more though)
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Plomien on 02 November 2009, 17:04:09
would be interesting to see how his previous forecasts have worked out.
There is some good basis on the theory provided but I won't be holding my breath :y
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: p j morgan on 02 November 2009, 17:10:42
i am not bothered weather it rains or snows it does what it does!it would be nice to have a white crimbo! we shall see in about seven weeks won't we ? 8-) 8-) :y
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: waspy on 02 November 2009, 17:28:59
It's the old f@rts folk i feel for. Where's STMO ;D
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: HolyCount on 02 November 2009, 19:48:17
Quote
I might stick a fiver on a white Xmas lol

Wouldn't that be great -- just like the old days !!!
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: albitz on 02 November 2009, 22:53:01
Quote
Quote
I might stick a fiver on a white Xmas lol

Wouldn't that be great -- just like the old days !!!
NO.Im working Christmas day/boxing day/new years day.Having to keep driving to work and back in snow will make it even worse. :(
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Nickbat on 16 November 2009, 11:37:38
Latest update (this morning) from Piers Corbyn regarding the forecast storms:

http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/WANews09No87_Nov16th.pdf
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Dishevelled Den on 16 November 2009, 11:52:58
Quote
Latest update (this morning) from Piers Corbyn regarding the forecast storms:

http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/WANews09No87_Nov16th.pdf



I hope that people take note of the last paragraph on this paper.
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Nickbat on 21 November 2009, 15:09:30
The low pressure tracked further North than anticipated so there was no storm surge, but the people of Cumbria bear tragic witness to the astonishing accuracy of Piers Corbyn's forecast of major global weather events around 17th-19th November. Another "event" is forecast for late in December.

Latest PDF here.

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews09No88.pdf

 :o 
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: redelitev6 on 21 November 2009, 17:44:35
We've done pretty well here in Newcastle -never even had a frost at our house-this time last year we had already had some snow,if this is global warming-bring it on!
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Nickbat on 01 January 2010, 23:36:21
Quote
I post this for general interest.

Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who expounds the theory that our weather is driven by solar influences (not CO2!  ;))

He has issued a forecast for the UK in November which predicts a possibly damaging storm surge along the East coast around the 17th to 19th of November. This storm, he claims, will be followed by much colder weather, possibly snow. The confidence in this event is now 85%. :o

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4282


In a similar vein, an amateur meteorologist, Mark Vogan, who is a baker at Asda (true!!), forecasts a very cold winter in Europe and notes this:

"...by Christmas 2009 I expect to see snow covering much of the British Isles, Scotland, England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland should see snow and a Siberian-Scandinavian high settle in for the period between Dec 20th through New Year."

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/official-united-kingdom-and-europe.html


Finally, the Met Office, with the best computers money can buy, has this as their early indication for Winter 2009/10:

"Preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

It is going to be interesting to see how these predictions pan out! ;) 


Corbyn/Asda baker: Joint 1st place.
Met Office: Dismal last place (even with their supercomputers!)

 ;) ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Vamps on 01 January 2010, 23:44:30
Quote
Quote
I post this for general interest.

Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who expounds the theory that our weather is driven by solar influences (not CO2!  ;))

He has issued a forecast for the UK in November which predicts a possibly damaging storm surge along the East coast around the 17th to 19th of November. This storm, he claims, will be followed by much colder weather, possibly snow. The confidence in this event is now 85%. :o

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4282


In a similar vein, an amateur meteorologist, Mark Vogan, who is a baker at Asda (true!!), forecasts a very cold winter in Europe and notes this:

"...by Christmas 2009 I expect to see snow covering much of the British Isles, Scotland, England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland should see snow and a Siberian-Scandinavian high settle in for the period between Dec 20th through New Year."

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/official-united-kingdom-and-europe.html


Finally, the Met Office, with the best computers money can buy, has this as their early indication for Winter 2009/10:

"Preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

It is going to be interesting to see how these predictions pan out! ;) 


Corbyn/Asda baker: Joint 1st place.
Met Office: Dismal last place (even with their supercomputers!)

 ;) ;D ;D ;D ;D

I remember you posting this, and thinking about it as all the snow fell, let alone the floods in the Lakes.....
Makes you wonder sometimes..... :D :D :D
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Kevin Wood on 01 January 2010, 23:46:20
Quote
Corbyn/Asda baker: Joint 1st place.
Met Office: Dismal last place (even with their supercomputers!)

 ;) ;D ;D ;D ;D

Not surprising. The briefest glance at their web site shows that they seem to consider their role to be a "climate change" mouthpiece these days rather than a serious meteorological organisation.

Kevin
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Nickbat on 01 January 2010, 23:47:55
Quote
We've done pretty well here in Newcastle -never even had a frost at our house-this time last year we had already had some snow,if this is global warming-bring it on!

Do you think redelitev6 regrets that comment now?  ;) ;D ;D
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: albitz on 02 January 2010, 08:04:41
I was thinking about this thread a couple of days ago,came to the conclusion that the Met office should be shut down immediately and the Baker from Asda put in charge of its replacement. ;)
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: Nickbat on 02 January 2010, 11:09:51
"Britain is bracing itself for one of the coldest winters for a century with temperatures hitting minus 16 degrees Celsius, forecasters have warned."

 :o :o

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6921281/Britain-facing-one-of-the-coldest-winters-in-100-years-experts-predict.html
Title: Re: Winter weather
Post by: zirax on 02 January 2010, 13:01:42
Bugger, really not looking forward to spending Jan on my hands and knees going to and fro the car to work (can't walk on snow/ice).  :(  >:(