Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: STMO999 on 06 March 2010, 21:10:15
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My lad asked me what the chances are of winning the lottery. I said about 14 million to one (I heard that somewhere). He said that, as we do two lines, that must be 7 million to one. Is that correct? Is two in fourteen million the same as one in seven million?
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yes
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Still 14 million to one, as you are doing seperate numbers on each line.
I think :y :y :y
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There are 14million combinations....you have 2 in your hand and hence you have halved it to 7million...assuming your not stupid and have the same numbers on each line ;D
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There are 14million combinations....you have 2 in your hand and hence you have halved it to 7million...assuming your not stupid and have the same numbers on each line ;D
That's what I thought.....then I started to think.......I shouldn't think...... :D
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
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No, with another set of numbers it is another 14millionth of a certainty of matching the numbers drawn, and two 14millionths is one 7millionth.
I did all the possible six number draws, my chances of winning would be 1; a certainty (14 million 14millionths is of course 1).
Edit: for 14millionth, read what Debs has just posted instead, but the theory is still the same.
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
Thanks Debs, but I just won eff all. ;D :y
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No, with another set of numbers it is another 14millionth of a certainty of matching the numbers drawn, and two 14millionths is one 7millionth.
I did all the possible six number draws, my chances of winning would be 1; a certainty (14 million 14millionths is of course 1).
Edit: for 14millionth, read what Debs has just posted instead, but the theory is still the same.
Yes. That's logical. But, you know when you talk yourself out of things that you know must be true...... ;D
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If you want to calculate the odds its as follows;
You have 6 numbers and there are 49 balls
First ball comes out
You now have 5 numbers and there are 48 balls
Seconds ball comes out
You now have 4 numbers and there are 47 balls
Third ball comes out
You now have 3 numbers and there are 46 balls
Fourth ball comes out
You now have 2 numbers and there are 45 balls
Fifth ball comes out
You now have 1 number and there are 44 balls
Last ball comes out
So the odds are calculated as
(49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) / (6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)
Which equals 13,983,816
Simples
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
A little errorette....its:
6/49 × 5/48 × 4/47 × 3/46 × 2/45 × 1/44
Because you have 6 numbers to start :y
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Sorry Debs, but.......
The Chances Of Winning The UK National Lottery
•The Jackpot - 6 Numbers (Typical prize: £2 million)
6 numbers are drawn at random from the set of integers between 1 and 49, which means there are 49!/(6!*(49-6)!) combinations of numbers (the draw order doesn't matter). The means that the jackpot chance is 1 in 13,983,816 or approximately 1 in 14 million.
•5 Numbers + Bonus Number (Typical prize: £100,000)
You are still matching 6 numbers from the 1 to 49 set as above, but you can now do it in 6 different ways (by dropping each of the main numbers in turn), therefore the chance is 1 in 13,983,816/6, which works out as 1 in 2,330,636.
•5 Numbers (Typical prize: £1,500)
This is 42 times more likely than getting 5 numbers + the bonus number because, after the first six balls are drawn, there are 43 balls left and you can match 42 of these 43 balls without matching the bonus number. Therefore the chance is 1 in 2,330,636/42, which evaluates to 1 in 55,491.33333.
•4 Numbers (Typical prize: £65)
Firstly, let's take the case of the first 4 of your numbers matching and the last 2 not matching. In this single case (where each set of chances relies on the previous event occurring):
Chance that your 1st number matches a winning number is 1 in 49/6.
Chance that your 2nd number matches a winning number is 1 in 48/5.
Chance that your 3rd number matches a winning number is 1 in 47/4.
Chance that your 4th number matches a winning number is 1 in 46/3.
Chance that your 5th number doesn't match a winning number is 1 in 45/(45-2) [because there are still 2 unmatched winning numbers].
Chance that your 6th number doesn't match a winning number is 1 in 44/(44-2) [yes, still 2 unmatched winning numbers].
Now you need to accumulate all those chances by multiplying them together:
1 in (49/6)*(48/5)*(47/4)*(46/3)*(45/43)*(44/42) which is 1 in 15486.953. Now this is the chance for that single case occurring, but there are 15 combinations of matching 4 from 6 [6!/(4!*(6-4)!)], so you divide the answer by 15 to get 1 in 15486.953/15 or 1 in 1032.4.
•3 Numbers (Constant prize: £10)
Follow exactly the same scheme as the 4 match above to get these figures:
1 in (49/6)*(48/5)*(47/4)*(46/43)*(45/42)*(44/41) (which is 1 in 1133.119) for a single case. There are 20 combinations of 3 from 6 [6!/(3!*(6-3)!], so the chance of a 3 match is 1 in 1133.119/20 or 1 in 56.7.
The chance of you winning any of the above prizes is approximately 54 to 1 - it is reckoned an average of one million people per draw will win a prize.
Using some computer software I wrote, I calculated how many prizes would be won if all combinations of the 13,983,816 tickets were bought:
Category Prizes Chances
Jackpot 1 1 in 13,983,816
5+bonus 6 1 in 2,330,636
5-match 252 1 in 55,491.33
4-match 13,545 1 in 1,032.40
3-match 246,820 1 in 56.66
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Total 260,624 1 in 53.66
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Spot on Mark!!!!!!!!
I hate you :P
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Spot on Mark!!!!!!!!
I hate you :P
Why thank you kind sir.........
I spend to much of my life using maths!
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
A little errorette....its:
6/49 × 5/48 × 4/47 × 3/46 × 2/45 × 1/44
Because you have 6 numbers to start :y
;D That`s Gentlemanly-speak for; you`re wrong! ;D
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I disagree
If 1 chance is 1 in 14M
after you have played 1 ticket.
so ticket 2 has a 1 in 13,999,999 chance of winning as you have taken one combination away from the 14M
If you have 2 tickets I see were you say a 1 in 7M chance, but has ticket 2 got a chance of the 2nd 7 million numbers or the other 6,999,999 that ticket 1 did not win.
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
A little errorette....its:
6/49 × 5/48 × 4/47 × 3/46 × 2/45 × 1/44
Because you have 6 numbers to start :y
;D That`s Gentlemanly-speak for; you`re wrong! ;D
Not wrong, you would have got close to max points for the working out :y
Just a fopar
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or how about no chance if you dont buy a ticket :D,,,,,,,,now where did i leave my coat ::)
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I disagree
If 1 chance is 1 in 14M
after you have played 1 ticket.
so ticket 2 has a 1 in 13,999,999 chance of winning as you have taken one combination away from the 14M
If you have 2 tickets I see were you say a 1 in 7M chance, but has ticket 2 got a chance of the 2nd 7 million numbers or the other 6,999,999 that ticket 1 did not win.
Each line has an equal chance of winning.
1/13,983,816 (first line) OR 1/13,983,816 (second line) = 1/13,983,816 + 13,983,816 = 2/13,983,816 = 1/6,991,908
As your lines are played through the chances of wining do get better but against the same set of six numbers from the draw, not against the first 7 million or the second 7 million of possible combinations.
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The way I look at it Skruntie: If you buy two tickets, you DOUBLE your chances, so you HALVE the odds. I think that's right.
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I agree with Mr Skruntie,however i wish to share a top tip.
Do the same numbers twice,if you are the only winner then you have wasted a quid which wont dent the prize too much but if the winning combination is held by others as well then you just got yourself an additional share.
e.g 3 winners pot 15m,you are 2 of the winners so get 10m.If you only had the numbers once you would only have got 7.5m.
Plus having the same numbers twice(only you know this) means you only have to give away a share of half what you won with all the best friends,long lost relatives,charities etc.
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I agree with Mr Skruntie,however i wish to share a top tip.
Do the same numbers twice,if you are the only winner then you have wasted a quid which wont dent the prize too much but if the winning combination is held by others as well then you just got yourself an additional share.
e.g 3 winners pot 15m,you are 2 of the winners so get 10m.If you only had the numbers once you would only have got 7.5m.
Plus having the same numbers twice(only you know this) means you only have to give away a share of half what you won with all the best friends,long lost relatives,charities etc.
Great in theory. But you are assuming a win. It's more likely you'll win nothing and simply end up spending twice as much on tickets.
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
.....I'm surprised Ms Debs is so poor at maths.......I won't believe anything she posts from now on..... ::) ::) ;) :-*
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Predicated as:
6 balls
1-49 numbered
The odds become:
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1 in 10,068,347,520
.....I'm surprised Ms Debs is so poor at maths.......I won't believe anything she posts from now on..... ::) ::) ;) :-*
My hair`s hue explains everything! ;)
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I agree with Mr Skruntie,however i wish to share a top tip.
Do the same numbers twice,if you are the only winner then you have wasted a quid which wont dent the prize too much but if the winning combination is held by others as well then you just got yourself an additional share.
e.g 3 winners pot 15m,you are 2 of the winners so get 10m.If you only had the numbers once you would only have got 7.5m.
Plus having the same numbers twice(only you know this) means you only have to give away a share of half what you won with all the best friends,long lost relatives,charities etc.
another top tip is - don't play 1,2,3,4,5,6 because if it wins (and its just as likely to win as any other combination of course) you'll be sharing the jackpot with about 100000 others who think they're the only ones to think of it :y
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We were always told at school...( by our very sexy 25 year old Maths teacher :-* :-*) ..... there is no such thing as "The law of averages".....and I agree. :y :y
You are equally as likely to throw a six.....six times in succession.......as you are to throw any other random combination of six numbers.......I think. ::) ;)
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We were always told at school...( by our very sexy 25 year old Maths teacher :-* :-*) ..... there is no such thing as "The law of averages".....and I agree. :y :y
You are equally as likely to throw a six.....six times in succession.......as you are to throw any other random combination of six numbers.......I think. ::) ;)
There is probability and averages....both are real yet they do often oppose each other.
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We were always told at school...( by our very sexy 25 year old Maths teacher :-* :-*) ..... there is no such thing as "The law of averages".....and I agree. :y :y
You are equally as likely to throw a six.....six times in succession.......as you are to throw any other random combination of six numbers.......I think. ::) ;)
::) Was he 'that' nice? ;D
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We were always told at school...( by our very sexy 25 year old Maths teacher :-* :-*) ..... there is no such thing as "The law of averages".....and I agree. :y :y
You are equally as likely to throw a six.....six times in succession.......as you are to throw any other random combination of six numbers.......I think. ::) ;)
::) Was he 'that' nice? ;D
....
......Damn you Debs ;D ;D........and I was trying to sound.......... sooooo hetrosexual...... ::) ;) :-*
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So if you had a spare 14m (just go with me here lol)
and the jackpot was more than double the 14m, say after a few roll overs
would it be worth doing to make more money?
How many combinations are there for the Euromillions 'cos thats usually over 28m prize money?
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So if you had a spare 14m (just go with me here lol)
and the jackpot was more than double the 14m, say after a few roll overs
would it be worth doing to make more money?
How many combinations are there for the Euromillions 'cos thats usually over 28m prize money?
The lotto has 6 numbers
The Euro lottery has 5 numbers but 2 bonus balls
Could you manage to find a way to put that many tickets on in a week.
How many combinations are there for each lottery.
Given the time and expertise putting on tickets then as long as you win more money with the prize win than it cost to buy then you come out a winner.
You will scoop various ammounts of winnings as well. But then what if there are multiple jackpot winners.
When the lottery 1st started my Mum wrote down all the winning numbers, I then decided to put them into supercalc on my amstrad 1640 super compuyer. (Twin 5.25 floppy drives) :-[ and did an average of the numbers divided by weeks played, supercalc then threw up the question did I want to play the a round number High/low. So went high. Had we have gone low we would have had 5 numbers but did win a tenner. We should have done both. :-[
Was lucky we know it never happened again.
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* EuroMillions is a pan-European lottery, with odds of 1 in 76,275,360 and a minimum jackpot of €15 million ($21 million U.S. dollars).
* Britain's biggest lottery winners Nigel Page and partner received £56,000,000
At £2 a play that is a lot to lay out to cover every combination.
1 in 13,983,816 for normal lottery.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_jackpot_records
Some interesting jackpots arround the world.