Omega Owners Forum
Chat Area => General Discussion Area => Topic started by: bigegg on 12 February 2011, 21:13:20
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I read a lot...
And I sometimes spend too long thinking about what I read.
I need to get something off my chest, and this seems a good place to do it-
Plenty of opinions on OOF, even if no experts ;D
so:
Precious metals, especially gold, are the only truly universal money - as in, you can go anywhere in the world (and even at any point in history), and swap gold (or silver) for the local currency.
There is approximately a total of 150k tonnes of gold in the world (at £27M per tonne present value) = 4million millions of quids.
The US gold reserve is about 8000 tonnes = 216,000 million quid (call it 100K million dollars)US trade deficit is 500K Million dollars (dec 2010 figures).
if the world suddenly decides that the dollar is no longer worth the paper it's printed on, the US government is going to have to buy a LOT of gold to pay it's debts.
heres the thought that's worrying me -
one theory is, that gold will increase in price against the dollar until the sums balance - ie, until the 8000 tonnes of gold they have in reserve is worth 500K million dollars.
This means gold will raise to about 4,000 quid an ounce, rather than the 850 quid it is at now - 5x increase in price
Another theory is that gold price against a currency is based on the amount of that currency in circulation.
eg - there are 11 million million dollars in circulation.
vs 8000 tonnes of gold in US reserves.
equating to an expected price of 1.375M dollars per kilo as opposed to 43k now (a 32x increase in price).
either way, the theories predict that gold prices are going to sky rocket, and probably soon.
That *could* be why there are so many companies trying to buy as much as they can lay their hands on...
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read
"Down to a Sunless Sea" by David Graham
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_to_a_Sunless_Sea
this is one take on "what if"
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I'll keep my eyes open for it.
in the meantime, I'm spending my spare cash on gold coins...
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I am not an economist but I can tell you it is all a fairly unsophisticated confidence trick whereby people daily work and get paid in worthless bits of paper which they can then swap for food, energy and so on.
If the pack of cards were to collapse then for a while and certainly when normality returned then gold would have the buying power.
However if normality never returned then the only think worth anything would be food and water. You can't (easily) eat gold. ;D
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I'm not too bothered about the worst case scenario.
I have what might be called "medieval" skills - I'm a fairly good blacksmith and metal-caster - I've even made cast iron from ore, in my back garden.
I'm actually working on a woodgas producer at the moment. (used in WW2 to run petrol engines on wood!)
I'm reasonably confident in being able to support myself if it ever got that bad.
I'm more interested in people's opinions on the theories above
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interesting read.
not knowing much about the subject a bit of quick research was in order.
it seams that most countries like to keep some gold in there back pocket, just in case.. to match their economy.
as the economies are growing faster than it comes out the ground..
i bid 2p more for your gold coin ;)
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I'm not too bothered about the worst case scenario.
I have what might be called "medieval" skills - I'm a fairly good blacksmith and metal-caster - I've even made cast iron from ore, in my back garden.
I'm actually working on a woodgas producer at the moment. (used in WW2 to run petrol engines on wood!)
I'm reasonably confident in being able to support myself if it ever got that bad.
I'm more interested in people's opinions on the theories above
Have you seen this?
http://www.gas-turbines.com/nt6/index.html
Kevin
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I read a lot...
And I sometimes spend too long thinking about what I read.
I need to get something off my chest, and this seems a good place to do it-
Plenty of opinions on OOF, even if no experts ;D
so:
Precious metals, especially gold, are the only truly universal money - as in, you can go anywhere in the world (and even at any point in history), and swap gold (or silver) for the local currency.
not only gold , many kinds of valuable metals ,precious stones are also easily exhangable..
There is approximately a total of 150k tonnes of gold in the world (at £27M per tonne present value) = 4million millions of quids.
The US gold reserve is about 8000 tonnes = 216,000 million quid (call it 100K million dollars)US trade deficit is 500K Million dollars (dec 2010 figures).
if the world suddenly decides that the dollar is no longer worth the paper it's printed on, the US government is going to have to buy a LOT of gold to pay it's debts.
nope.. they will probably pay with oil or declare another war ;D :D
heres the thought that's worrying me -
one theory is, that gold will increase in price against the dollar until the sums balance
will increase of course..but other longer term predictions will likely fail..
- ie, until the 8000 tonnes of gold they have in reserve is worth 500K million dollars.
This means gold will raise to about 4,000 quid an ounce, rather than the 850 quid it is at now - 5x increase in price
Another theory is that gold price against a currency is based on the amount of that currency in circulation.
this is no longer valid I'm afraid ;D since USA is the absolute military power (for long time) they produce money as they wish..but even sea is finished.. :-X
eg - there are 11 million million dollars in circulation.
vs 8000 tonnes of gold in US reserves.
equating to an expected price of 1.375M dollars per kilo as opposed to 43k now (a 32x increase in price).
either way, the theories predict that gold prices are going to sky rocket, and probably soon.
That *could* be why there are so many companies trying to buy as much as they can lay their hands on...
many well known valid currencies are under the risk of devaluation as owner of those currencies are under the risk of high debits..thats a logical move..
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I'm not too bothered about the worst case scenario.
I have what might be called "medieval" skills - I'm a fairly good blacksmith and metal-caster - I've even made cast iron from ore, in my back garden.
I'm actually working on a woodgas producer at the moment. (used in WW2 to run petrol engines on wood!)
I'm reasonably confident in being able to support myself if it ever got that bad.
I'm more interested in people's opinions on the theories above
Have you seen this?
http://www.gas-turbines.com/nt6/index.html
Kevin
I have now...
Bookmarked, and waiting for new CD to be released.
2000w generator and will run on biomass (I pulp around 10 tonnes of waste/damaged books a week - that's a LOT of fuel)
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Precious metals, especially gold, are the only truly universal money - as in, you can go anywhere in the world (and even at any point in history), and swap gold (or silver) for the local currency.
not only gold , many kinds of valuable metals ,precious stones are also easily exhangable..
but only gold is easily recognizable as gold - it's colour, weight and softness are not easily faked
if the world suddenly decides that the dollar is no longer worth the paper it's printed on, the US government is going to have to buy a LOT of gold to pay it's debts.
nope.. they will probably pay with oil or declare another war ;D :D
A large portion of it is owed to china, and japan, in the way of treasury bonds.
Can't see them declaring war on china.
And trying to invade the middle east to control the oil? -
If the dollar value fails, they're not going to be able to buy it. - they can't use oil, without risking WW3
heres the thought that's worrying me -
one theory is, that gold will increase in price against the dollar until the sums balance
will increase of course..but other longer term predictions will likely fail..
- ie, until the 8000 tonnes of gold they have in reserve is worth 500K million dollars.
This means gold will raise to about 4,000 quid an ounce, rather than the 850 quid it is at now - 5x increase in price
Another theory is that gold price against a currency is based on the amount of that currency in circulation.
this is no longer valid I'm afraid ;D since USA is the absolute military power (for long time) they produce money as they wish..but even sea is finished.. :-X
Again - absolute military power against china? I don't think even american's are that stupid. America's main power comes from the fact that they control the worlds finances
either way, the theories predict that gold prices are going to sky rocket, and probably soon.
That *could* be why there are so many companies trying to buy as much as they can lay their hands on...
many well known valid currencies are under the risk of devaluation as owner of those currencies are under the risk of high debits..thats a logical move..
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ironically gold isn't that great an investment - people think its safe and always increasing in value, but in reality its incredibly volatile - you could buy all the gold you wish and in a few years the price may have doubled or trebled but just as likely its collapsed :-?
so if you're a gambler then it may be fun :y
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Precious metals, especially gold, are the only truly universal money - as in, you can go anywhere in the world (and even at any point in history), and swap gold (or silver) for the local currency.
not only gold , many kinds of valuable metals ,precious stones are also easily exhangable..
but only gold is easily recognizable as gold - it's colour, weight and softness are not easily faked
if the world suddenly decides that the dollar is no longer worth the paper it's printed on, the US government is going to have to buy a LOT of gold to pay it's debts.
nope.. they will probably pay with oil or declare another war ;D :D
A large portion of it is owed to china, and japan, in the way of treasury bonds.
Can't see them declaring war on china.
some time ago, when china only spell of selling them and changing to euro, the us authorities talks were no different..may I remind that us industry/economy will have a life kiss when wars come to scene.. :)
And trying to invade the middle east to control the oil? -
If the dollar value fails, they're not going to be able to buy it. - they can't use oil, without risking WW3
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they already invaded ;D saudi lands , iraq and some other oil countries are anyway under their control..
heres the thought that's worrying me -
one theory is, that gold will increase in price against the dollar until the sums balance
will increase of course..but other longer term predictions will likely fail..
- ie, until the 8000 tonnes of gold they have in reserve is worth 500K million dollars.
This means gold will raise to about 4,000 quid an ounce, rather than the 850 quid it is at now - 5x increase in price
Another theory is that gold price against a currency is based on the amount of that currency in circulation.
this is no longer valid I'm afraid ;D since USA is the absolute military power (for long time) they produce money as they wish..but even sea is finished.. :-X
Again - absolute military power against china? I don't think even american's are that stupid. America's main power comes from the fact that they control the worlds finances
nah.. they cant control even their federal reserve bank as it doesnt belong to them ;D
either way, the theories predict that gold prices are going to sky rocket, and probably soon.
That *could* be why there are so many companies trying to buy as much as they can lay their hands on...
many well known valid currencies are under the risk of devaluation as owner of those currencies are under the risk of high debits..thats a logical move..
-
read
"Down to a Sunless Sea" by David Graham
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_to_a_Sunless_Sea
this is one take on "what if"
That is one of my favourite books. :y
The stretch 747s I do remember
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well if the price of gold is gonna rocket, im gonna buy up argos's entire stock of sovereign rings.... i get to cash in and the chavs wont be able to wear them ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Most has been said on this thread that can be said about gold, but I thought I would share this delightful video explaining simply some facts pertaining this magical substance:
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asodfnJbPR8[/media]
..............and according to all the facts available the USA still holds the highest level of gold reserves (around 8,000 tonnes) for a single nation, but China is increasing its holdings with the fifth highest reserves in the world. The European zone holds collectively around 11,000 tonnes.
:D :D ;)
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I for one more then likely no more about gold and precious metals then most people on this forum as I have dealt in it for the last 10 years.
I have made money on gold, I was buying it a few years back when it was $450 an oz then later on $600 an oz. If you look at historic gold prices then it will tell you that in times of unrest (War, recession) then typically the gold price is high.
Dollars are a universal currency, so many different countries use them rather then their own. Oil is traded in dollars!
I cant ever see the dollar being considered to be a "really" weak trade unit. compared to say Sterling and Euro
Also if you speak to a goldsmith/porn broker he will tell you that there may be a little left in gold but anything short of WW3 then I wont be seeing the gold price hit £4000 in my lifetime in fact I doubt I will ever see it hit $4000
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read
"Down to a Sunless Sea" by David Graham
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_to_a_Sunless_Sea
this is one take on "what if"
That is one of my favourite books. :y
The stretch 747s I do remember
Have you read/got the 70's original with the Epiloge at the end or the 80's reprint which omitted it?
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Whilst i am no economist i do feel the major world currencies are in a real danger of collapsing.
The rise in all the "we buy your gold shops" on every High Street are not there to help out individuals who are experiencing financial hardship. No they have a long term game plan and that is gold is going to increase in value in a big way.
-
read
"Down to a Sunless Sea" by David Graham
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_to_a_Sunless_Sea
this is one take on "what if"
That is one of my favourite books. :y
The stretch 747s I do remember
Have you read/got the 70's original with the Epiloge at the end or the 80's reprint which omitted it?
excellent book!! read it three times, just checked and it got thrown out when we moved !!! aaaarrrrgggghhhhhh >:(
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if currencies were to collapse, i fail to see what you could buy with gold? take a few shavings off and hand them to the till operator in tescos? if you're buying gold because you think that'll happen, then pretty soon gold would be worthless too - what would be of real value would be food, medicine and clean water and some skills :y :y
remember everyone used to say invest in bricks and mortar - house prices always go up? anyone? no? ok so its gold now - brilliant :o
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buy the gold now, then wait for everyone else to realise it's still going up, and start buying.
then sell it.
then invest in petrol, tinned food, and ammo.
I don't honestly believe that things will ever get THAT bad.
but the more I see, and read, the more I believe that we've barely started into a major financial upheaval.
Certainly worse than the early 80's
and possibly worse than the 1930s.
all the above have occured since the dollar, (and sterling) were taken off the gold standard.
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if currencies were to collapse, i fail to see what you could buy with gold? take a few shavings off and hand them to the till operator in tescos? if you're buying gold because you think that'll happen, then pretty soon gold would be worthless too - what would be of real value would be food, medicine and clean water and some skills :y :y
remember everyone used to say invest in bricks and mortar - house prices always go up? anyone? no? ok so its gold now - brilliant :o
Thats why i built my house from Gold Brick ;D ;D ;D :y
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ok.. I think the system in the west has to put the hat aside and think twice.. if the whole system is still working on a debit basis even in those conditions thats unbelievable.. and the parties even can not agree on precautions.. :-?
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ok.. I think the system in the west has to put the hat aside and think twice.. if the whole system is still working on a debit basis even in those conditions thats unbelievable.. and the parties even can not agree on precautions.. :-?
yeah - we're doomed to repeat history....however recent :(