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[Rods2]

one important fact is; Russia have lots of investments,money and effort in Ukraine like factories, energy units, schools, universities, banks, govt buildings, roads, hospitals and many other things.. if you expect Russians and Putin to say bye bye to this much money , effort and history, I'm afraid you have to wait long

Sevastopol. Access to the Mediterranean and the western seas. Russia will never let that go, until their next political collapse.

There you go, I've fixed that for you. Long term, Russia will collapse again, where Putin's dictatorial style of government is unsustainable. Most regions provide money inflows to Moscow, where a teacher and a skilled worker will earn $2000 a month, where in the regions they only earn $200 or less. This is increasing resentment and tensions that will not go away without Moscow having less (which is not possible under Putin) and the regions having more. When Russia collapses again then the semi-Federated states, many of whom have ethnic majorities will become independent states, hence due to political mismanagement, Russia will get even smaller and insignificant. Crimea may become part of Chechnya or Ukraine again. Crimea is too weak economically to be an independent country without an external benefactor to the tune of $6bn a year.

Demographics are a challenge for all of Europe, but long term are especially challenging for Ethnic-Russians and some other ex-Soviet states. As things stand major population growth (but slowing down) is mainly happening in Africa, South America, Asia and the Middle East. Where Adults have about 40 hours of economic output from the ages of 20 to about 60, this matters in terms of long term economic strength, until Robots and AI machines are clever and cheap enough to take over doing the majority of work.

will you bet on that prediction


many ottoman sultans spend their life waiting for that and than west politicians .. and I'm afraid they are still very strong

Have a read of the many articles on here if you think many leading scholars and ex-government officials aren't worried about the route Russia is taking.

http://www.interpretermag.com/

The three economic global powerhouses by 2050 will be:

1. China
2. USA
3. India

Russia are currently 6 and will at best stay there as a minor regional power with a smaller GDP than Germany, unless they modernise and further industrialise their country, where they are currently going in the opposite direction with their equivalent of Silicon Valley a failure and no modernisation apart from limited amounts in their defense industries. If they successfully empire build (unlikely), they might grow a bit more, or if they continue on their current political route it may well be much worse. Demographics will mean a smaller working population which will also have to cover the costs of a bigger pensions bill. Demographics is going to be the elephant in the room for many countries over the next 20-100 years, where effective contraception means that we are not breeding enough to sustain our current populations let alone grow them.

Russian Oil will be declining rapidly by 2050 on current proven reserves and by 2050 we will be living in a largely post fossil fuel era, where their cost of extraction has gone up and the cost of alternative sources down. By 2050 the majority of our power will come from fission and fusion nuclear power stations as there will not be anywhere near enough fossil fuels left to cover global consumption.

[cem_devecioglu]

one important fact is; Russia have lots of investments,money and effort in Ukraine like factories, energy units, schools, universities, banks, govt buildings, roads, hospitals and many other things.. if you expect Russians and Putin to say bye bye to this much money , effort and history, I'm afraid you have to wait long

Sevastopol. Access to the Mediterranean and the western seas. Russia will never let that go, until their next political collapse.

There you go, I've fixed that for you. Long term, Russia will collapse again, where Putin's dictatorial style of government is unsustainable. Most regions provide money inflows to Moscow, where a teacher and a skilled worker will earn $2000 a month, where in the regions they only earn $200 or less. This is increasing resentment and tensions that will not go away without Moscow having less (which is not possible under Putin) and the regions having more. When Russia collapses again then the semi-Federated states, many of whom have ethnic majorities will become independent states, hence due to political mismanagement, Russia will get even smaller and insignificant. Crimea may become part of Chechnya or Ukraine again. Crimea is too weak economically to be an independent country without an external benefactor to the tune of $6bn a year.

Demographics are a challenge for all of Europe, but long term are especially challenging for Ethnic-Russians and some other ex-Soviet states. As things stand major population growth (but slowing down) is mainly happening in Africa, South America, Asia and the Middle East. Where Adults have about 40 hours of economic output from the ages of 20 to about 60, this matters in terms of long term economic strength, until Robots and AI machines are clever and cheap enough to take over doing the majority of work.

will you bet on that prediction


many ottoman sultans spend their life waiting for that and than west politicians .. and I'm afraid they are still very strong

Have a read of the many articles on here if you think many leading scholars and ex-government officials aren't worried about the route Russia is taking.

http://www.interpretermag.com/

The three economic global powerhouses by 2050 will be:

1. China
2. USA
3. India

Russia are currently 6 and will at best stay there as a minor regional power with a smaller GDP than Germany, unless they modernise and further industrialise their country, where they are currently going in the opposite direction with their equivalent of Silicon Valley a failure and no modernisation apart from limited amounts in their defense industries. If they successfully empire build (unlikely), they might grow a bit more, or if they continue on their current political route it may well be much worse. Demographics will mean a smaller working population which will also have to cover the costs of a bigger pensions bill. Demographics is going to be the elephant in the room for many countries over the next 20-100 years, where effective contraception means that we are not breeding enough to sustain our current populations let alone grow them.

Russian Oil will be declining rapidly by 2050 on current proven reserves and by 2050 we will be living in a largely post fossil fuel era, where their cost of extraction has gone up and the cost of alternative sources down. By 2050 the majority of our power will come from fission and fusion nuclear power stations as there will not be anywhere near enough fossil fuels left to cover global consumption.

expectations..


remember whole west decided to get rid of Assad ,but when Russians said NO,  all step back.. 

[Rods2]

What is happening has been consistently reported first by "The Interpreter Mag" which is why it is a news source used by many newspapers

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-124-russia-on-full-combat-alert/

Russia has effectively taken over East Ukraine as the latest ceasefire and Russian armour continuing to pouring into East Ukraine confirms. This is a possible war of attrition that the Ukraine army cannot win as Russian has about 2,000 T64 tanks in storage, where they no longer in frontline service, which are what are pouring in there.

While the EU have stated that if the Russians don't reduce tensions in the East they will have to consider further sanctions. When Merkel said that Putin is on a different planet, I think she should have clarified who is actually on planet Earth.

The worry is there is nothing to stop them doing the same thing to any country where they have a border in Europe and a few ethnic Russians. The GRU (Russian military intelligence) send their operatives into the country, get the support of a few local Russians / Russian visitors, take over key positions and then provide reinforcements across the border as 'volunteers' that they say they have no control over. Provide as much weaponry, armour etc, stating that the volunteers have captured it, even if it is not in the opposing countries inventory as while the west argue over the semantics, they finish taking control. Once they are in control they call a rigged Plebiscite, who have of course vote to join Russia and they annex the area / province / country* accordingly.

*delete as appropriate

This is what NATO and our current politicians have got to get to grips with. Russia is relying on self interest like Germans selling them cars, London financial services being more important than actually doing anything meaningful. London is full of Russians so the UK's turn will eventually come.

The questions now are:

1. Will Russia take over the rest of the Ukraine?
2. Will the west supply the means to the 70%+ that are very anti-Russian, so they can like the make sure that like in Afghanistan that Russia loses the peace?
3. Moldova and Belarus are going to need to stop making overtures about EU / NATO membership or they will be next. Belarus across the their common border and Moldova through the Russian troops in Transnistria.
3. Right now the Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland need to get out their NATO insurance policy treaty and read the terms as they may be needing to make a claim sooner rather than later.

[LC0112G]

3. Right now the Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland need to get out their NATO insurance policy treaty and read the terms as they may be needing to make a claim sooner rather than later.

There are currently Polish, Danish, UK and French air force components forward deployed in Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania.
There are currently Canadian air force components forward deployed in Romania/Bulgaria.
There are currently USAF components permenantly deployed in Poland.
A show of force exercise "Sabre Strike" involving B52's and B2's flying from UK bases has just finished.
A squadron of Stateside based USAF F-16 fighters was forward deployed to Estonia for the same excercise.
The neutral Swede's and Finn's have allowed NATO AWACS aircraft access to their airspace.
There are daily recce flights operated by US and UK spy planes operating along NATO's southern borders.

Now if I know all that, then the Russians know all that. Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithania are all now full EU and NATO members. There are sufficient forces in all these countries such that any attack on them would inevitably draw a full NATO response since the forces are already there.

NATO will undoubtedly be cautious about further eastwards expansion, but all these countries are already in, and Moscow knows it. All they can do is make it expensive to police the borders by flying recce flights down the international airspace boundaries like they used to in the cold war. However, ultimatley the west has more money than Russia, so if they try to stress our defence budgets, I would expect us (the west) to retaliate by further stressing their economy.

[Lizzie_Zoom]

3. Right now the Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland need to get out their NATO insurance policy treaty and read the terms as they may be needing to make a claim sooner rather than later.

There are currently Polish, Danish, UK and French air force components forward deployed in Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania.
There are currently Canadian air force components forward deployed in Romania/Bulgaria.
There are currently USAF components permenantly deployed in Poland.
A show of force exercise "Sabre Strike" involving B52's and B2's flying from UK bases has just finished.
A squadron of Stateside based USAF F-16 fighters was forward deployed to Estonia for the same excercise.
The neutral Swede's and Finn's have allowed NATO AWACS aircraft access to their airspace.
There are daily recce flights operated by US and UK spy planes operating along NATO's southern borders.

Now if I know all that, then the Russians know all that. Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithania are all now full EU and NATO members. There are sufficient forces in all these countries such that any attack on them would inevitably draw a full NATO response since the forces are already there.

NATO will undoubtedly be cautious about further eastwards expansion, but all these countries are already in, and Moscow knows it. All they can do is make it expensive to police the borders by flying recce flights down the international airspace boundaries like they used to in the cold war. However, ultimatley the west has more money than Russia, so if they try to stress our defence budgets, I would expect us (the west) to retaliate by further stressing their economy.

Exactly right!

That is why I say that any comparison with Hitler, Stalin, and the rest is just not relevant. This is a different age. The elements that kept the Cold War "cold" and has maintained the relative peace in Europe since WW2 are still there.  The USSR collapsed, and although various treaties have reduced the amount of strategic weapons that the West, and Russia, has there are still adequate quantities of quality weapons to make any attempt by Russia to expand their borders West towards the rest of Europe a lost cause for them before they start.  Russia's own forces are a shadow of their Cold War size, coupled with the fact they have not the financial clout to expand them, they have no ability to engage in a reverse "Barbarossa" action. This is not the 1940s. The West, NATO, and the United Nations, in 2014 would not stand back and let that happen.

Keep our powder dry and use diplomacy to keep Putin, who I repeat is no Hitler nor Stalin, under control.

[cem_devecioglu]

Imo, Ukraine and advancing the russian borders to west is completely different subjects ..  I can bet Putin has no interest or intention to start another war for getting more lands which he already has plenty ..  however, Ukraine is different as it can block their way to black sea and it has a high strategical and economical importance to them..


however, as time and wars prooved united nations is just an empty cake which has practically no power..  and totally useless in my opinion..


as for nato, just count USA and UK which can stand against  Russia .. simply omit the others as history prooved..  but however,  I dont think their politicians will be willing to war with Russia if they decide to take their older cities back.. 

[Lizzie_Zoom]

Imo, Ukraine and advancing the russian borders to west is completely different subjects ..  I can bet Putin has no interest or intention to start another war for getting more lands which he already has plenty ..  however, Ukraine is different as it can block their way to black sea and it has a high strategical and economical importance to them..


however, as time and wars prooved united nations is just an empty cake which has practically no power..  and totally useless in my opinion..


as for nato, just count USA and UK which can stand against  Russia .. simply omit the others as history prooved..  but however,  I dont think their politicians will be willing to war with Russia if they decide to take their older cities back.. 

It should be Cem, but it is clear that some think this is the start of Putin's plans of World domination!